Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (22-16) at New New York Mets (24-14)

In Uncategorized by berselius84 Comments

I was told that the Cubs had no hard series for the rest of the year, this is some bullshit. The Mets may have had one of the easiest strength of schedules on the year, but they are still quite a good team even with new signing Juan Soto “slumping” by his standards. The Mets rank sixth in offense, twentieth in defense, and sixth on the basepaths, which are all close-ish in order of magnitude to the Cubs. Their starting pitching has been very good, posting a 2.71 ERA on the year, largely driven by a league-leading 0.47 HR/9. Their bullpen has picked up where the starters left off, with a 3.13 ERA, and both units are second in the league in WAR on the year.

The Mets are coming off a .500 road trip against the Cardinals and Sneks. Kodai Senga has been their best pitcher on the season, but luckily the Cubs are dodging him this series.

NB: All three games are national broadcast one way or another, we’ll only have Marquee for Friday.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Kelly (.488)
  • ISO: Kelly (.424)
  • R+RBI: Tucker (61)
  • HR: Tucker/PCA/Suzuki (9)
  • wRC+: Kelly (240)
  • BSR: PCA (2.6)
  • Defense: PCA (7.5)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (2.2)
  • SP K/9: Brown (10.43)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.82)
  • SP FIP: Rea (3.15)
  • RP K/9: Keller (9.72)
  • RP BB/9: Pomeranz (3.18)
  • RP FIP: Keller (2.21)
  • Pitcher WAR: Brown (0.7)

Metropolitans

  • OBP: Pete Alonso (.450)
  • ISO: Alonso (.307)
  • R+RBI: Alonso (60)
  • HR: Alonso (9)
  • wRC+: Alonso (202)
  • BSR: Luisangel Acuña (2.0)
  • Defense: Hayden Singer (3.7)
  • Hitter WAR: Alonso (2.3)
  • SP K/9: Tylor Megill (11.25)
  • SP BB/9: David Peterson (3.05)
  • SP FIP: Clay Holmes (2.21)
  • RP K/9: Edwin Diaz (14.14)
  • RP BB/9: Max Kranick (0.40)
  • RP FIP: AJ Minter (1.92)
  • Pitcher WAR: Holmes (1.3)

Alonso’s on a bit of an extended heater (dying laughing)

Who isn’t available?

On the Cubs side, Ryan Brasier made his first rehab appearance on Wednesday, and could be back soonish. Tyson Miller has appeared in six games in Iowa and the clock is probably running out on when the Cubs need to make a decision. The news on Shota’s hamstring injury was relatively good but he should be shut down for at least two weeks.

The Mets have a surprising number of injuries for a team with its record, having that Cohen money sure helps, huh. Starter Frankie Montas is starting throwing after missing two-plus months with a lat strain suffered in spring training, and still has a month or so of ramping up to do. Offseason (re-)signing Sean Manea is still out with an oblique strain suffered late in spring training and is only throwing off flat ground. RP AJ Minter had lat surgery earlier in the month and is done for the year, and former Cubs who are somehow still in baseball, Paul Blackburn and Brooks Raley, are also on the IL with various injuries. OF Jesse Winker suffered an oblique strain last weekend and is out for a month, and OF Jose Siri broke his tibia back in April. Finally, AC-favorite Nick Madrigal broke his shoulder in the first week of spring training and is out for the year, if not for his career 🙁

Pitching Matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher

Friday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.21, 2.14, 4.24) vs Clay Holmes, RHP (8.42, 2.88, 3.44), 6:10 PM CT

Clay Holmes has come a long way from the sub-replacement level starter I remember from his time in Pittsburgh. He’s a sinker-slider guy who used to throw a TON of sinkers (like 80%+) earlier in his Mets career, but now mixes things up across 4-5 pitches. Based on the results so far for him this year, it’s working for him. He’s coming off a nominal quality start against the Cardinals, allowing three runs and three strikeouts in six innings.

Taillon was sharp again in his last start, striking out five while allowing two runs in what felt like a pretty smooth start against the Beers. His swinging strike percentage and hard hit percentages have both moved in the right direction from last year, you love to see it.

Saturday: Cade Horton, RHP (7.53, 2.99, 4.42) vs Tylor Megill, RHP (9.52, 3.58, 4.19), 6:15 PM CT (FOX)

The Cubs 2022 first round pick is here, and making his debut on national television. No pressure, bud. The Cubs had clearly been planning going into the year to give Horton a bit more seasoning and bring him up for a taste of the bigs later this summer, but needs must. It certainly helps that he’s been making his own case for coming up sooner based on his performance in Iowa. In six starts he has a 1.24 ERA and a 10.24 strikeout rate, striking out 33 to 13 walks. He’s earned it.

I’m not going to bother saying anything about Megill, I’m too busy laughing/pitying him for the first name his parents hung on him.

Sunday Funday: Matt Boyd, LHP (8.99, 2.88, 3.83) vs Griffin Canning, RHP (8.29, 3.39, 4.74), 11:05 AM CT (Roku)

Speaking of ridiculous names, Griffin Canning sounds like a 19th century robber baron who made his money in something like asbestos lined shirt-collars. He’s coming off five straight seasons with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles where he posted a consistent near-5.00 ERA. So of course he’s posted a 2.50 ERA so far this year with the Mets.

Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do. Unless that thing is to extend PCA and Kyle Tucker. Do that.

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Comments

  6. Perkins

    berselius,

    Having been raised Catholic, that tracks. Try explaining liberation theology to an adult convert and see how that goes (dying laughing).

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  8. Rice Cube

    Cade Horton is here at Citi Field. Cubs will make a move tomorrow to put Horton on roster for MLB debut.

    Horton said in spring training manager Craig Counsell told him to keep going & make Cubs call him up: “I feel like I put myself in position to do that & now here we are.”

    Horton will wear #22.

    — Meghan Montemurro (@mmontemurro.bsky.social) May 9, 2025 at 2:59 PM

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  10. Perkins

    Lots of guesswork.

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #252

    “30 30 30ish 30”
    🟢⚪️⚪️🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  13. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron versing north paw Clay Holmes

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    C Kelly
    CF PCA
    2B Hoerner
    SS Swandong
    3B Lopez

    SP Taillon

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  15. andcounting

    I sure would like the Cubs to tell Rafael Devers he could play third base with the Cubs any old time he wants to.

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  31. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s based ball squadron Happ off-day edition

    CF PCA
    RF Tucker
    LF Suzuki
    1B Busch
    DH Turner
    2B Hoerner
    SS Swandong
    C Amaya
    3B Berti

    “SP”: Keller

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  32. Author
    berselius

    Hope the Cubs do better today, grouchy from dealing with a busybody at the dog park who threatened to call “the authorities” on me because she thought my dogs, who have been going to this dog park for 2+ years, were too big for the ‘small dog’ park.

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  48. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    Don’t think it’s a hard innings limit, I think teams are using the pitch data and other stuff to get a sense on fatigue these days.

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  55. andcounting

    berselius,

    As the owner of a 32-pound dog I empathize with this struggle. The days before he added those last few pounds were full of snarky teacup owners.

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  59. Author
    berselius

    berselius,

    They get along fine with big dogs, I just like the small dog park better for the company. And lack of invisible cactus plants

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  61. dmick89

    Even if your dogs were 150 pounds each it’s insane to threaten to call the cops about you bringing them to the small dog park. People are nuts.

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  62. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    New to me too, haha, the main player that drove this was Garret Crochet with the White Sox last year, who went from pitching 36 innings over the previous two years to ~150

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