Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (19-13) at Milwaukee Beerers (16-16)

By
berselius
-
130

Yay, more divisional baseball! It doesn’t feel *too* weird that the first Brewers series isn’t until May, but it does still feel weird that it’s the second NLC series overall. Or that there’s no Cardinals series until the last week of June. I’m a broken record (that was shattered by the axe that I grind over this issue) on this but I still hate the new ‘balanced’ schedule. /yells at cloud

The Brewers position players have been thorougly average this year, posting offensive and defensive rates just below average, though they’ve been demons on the basepaths, posting the fourth highest BSR behind the Cubs’s top number. The pitching is lagging further behind, with their starters in particular posting a near-5.00 FIP (though with a 3.67 ERA, go figure). Their bullpen has been more cromulent but not by much.

The Beers are coming off a long road trip that ended with a series win against the White Sox, but they didn’t fare so well against the Giants and Cardinals earlier in the trip.

Team Leaders

Still some fun with small sample sizes

Cubs

  • OBP: Kelly (.507)
  • ISO: Kelly (.480)
  • R+RBI: Tucker (53)
  • HR: Suzuki (9)
  • wRC+: Kelly (255)
  • BSR: PCA (2.8)
  • Defense: PCA (6.5)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (1.9)
  • SP K/9: Rae (11.48)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.87)
  • SP FIP: Rea (1.20)
  • RP K/9: Keller (11.37)
  • RP BB/9: Palencia (4.15)
  • RP FIP: Keller (2.21)
  • Pitcher WAR: Rea (0.7)

I updated for Seiya’s homers above, Rea’s numbers probably look even better after Thursday’s start.

Beers

  • OBP: Rhys Hoskins (.404)
  • ISO: Jackson Chourio (.233)
  • R+RBI: Chourio (45)
  • HR: Chourio (6)
  • wRC+: Hoskins (132)
  • BSR: Brice Turang (1.4)
  • Defense: Garrett Mitchell (4.8)
  • Hitter WAR: William Contreras (0.9)
  • SP K/9: Freddy Peralta (9.38)
  • SP BB/9: Jose Quintana (3.04)
  • SP FIP: Q (3.04)
  • RP K/9: Abner Uribe (11.20)
  • RP BB/9: Nick Mears (1.59)
  • RP FIP: Mears (1.67)
  • Pitcher WAR: Peralta (0.7)

Who isn’t available?

Bob Minocqua is most of the way back from the shoulder surgery that cost him all of 2024. He pitched 5 2/3 innings in a rehab start on Tuesday, and is due to do at least one more. Starter Aaron Civale, who the Brewers picked up from the Rays last summer, has been out all month with a hamstring strain. He’s thrown some bullpens and other side sessions but hasn’t made any minor league rehab appearances. Nestor Cortes might be done for the year with a flexor strain, though it looks like he won’t need surgery. For the Cubs sake I hope he returns this year (dying laughing). Yet another projected starter, DL Hall, has been out all season with a lat strain, and isn’t expected to return until midseason. Hence the last minute Q signing.

OF and plus defender Garrett Mitchell suffered a hamstring strain last week and is expected to miss at least a month. Their top prospect, catcher Jeferson Quero is rehabbing from 2024 shoulder surgery and a more recently suffered hamstring strain.

Not many updates on the Cubs side injury wise. Assad is now on the 60-day DL, though back-dated to mid-march.

Pitching matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher

Friday: Ben Brown, RHP (9.63, 3.61, 3.87) vs Quinn Priester, RHP (7.30, 3.29, 3.56), 7:10 PM CT (Note: Apple TV+)

I’ve still got some residual excitement from the start of the season for Ben Brown, starter, but with Cade Horton pitching so well in Iowa his rope might be getting shorter. He’s got great stuff but is still maddeningly inconsistent, and always seems to have That One Inning with various walks and BABIP dragon assaults that drive up his pitch count (and ERA).

Quintana was one emergency signing, and the Brewers trade for Priester was another following the cascade of injuries that hit the Brewers pitching staff. Preister’s numbers above are mostly as a reliever, as he was expected to be a swingman for the Red Sox before the Brewers gave up a lot more than one typically gives up for a swing man. He’s done solidly ERA wise in Milwaukee, but has danced around a ton of walks. He’s coming off a five inning, five run outing in St. Louis.

Saturday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.18, 2.14, 4.24) vs Jose Quintana, LHP (7.27, 3.51, 4.04), 6:10 PM CT

Taillon had one of his best starts in a Cubs uniform against the Phillies last weekend, going seven innings and allowing just one run with no walks. It still hasn’t shown up in his peripherals but I’ll still bang the drum that he looks like a better pitcher this year than last.

Q has had a great start to the year, and while his 1.14 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his peripherals are still pretty solid. *deletes long screed defending the Cease/Jimenez trade*

Sunday: Shota Imanaga, LHP (8.86, 2.27, 3.82) vs Freddy Peralta*, RHP (27.00, 0.00, -9.00), 1:10 PM CT

ERA-wise (2.77) Shota looks like Shota again, but FIP (4.87) does not like him as much. I assumed this was due to a few extra homers, but his strikeout and walk rates have both gone in the wrong direction so far this year. Small sample size, etc etc 🤞. He left his last start with leg cramps, hopefully the Cubs brought in Big Z to give him some advice.

*vibes-based career stats vs Cubs listed. Looking at his actual career vs team splits, he’s merely been as good against the Cubs as he his vs most of the other divisional teams. But this guy always seems to have a 13K game in his back pocket. Hopefully the Cubs bank some wins earlier in the series.

130 COMMENTS

  8. Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #245

    🟡⚪️🟡⚪️⚫️
    🟢🟡🟢🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

    Alex Gonzalez, really?

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  43. Epic feed synchronization. They showed Pat Hughes on tv and the radio feed matched his on-screen lip movement perfectly.

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  52. I think the only bad part of a 10 WAR season from PCA is that ownership would feel more comfortable letting Tucker walk, which they absolutely should not.

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  65. Minor brain fart.

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #246

    “Deep Cuts”
    🟢🟢🟡🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  96. To-day’s base ball squadron versus north paw Freddy Peralta

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    C Amaya
    SS Swanson
    3B Berti

    SP Shota

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  97. wondered about this (dying laughing)

    PCA’s money motion as he ran the bases was directed at the Cubs’ bullpen, where Daniel Palencia was freaking out. Why? Because Palencia had asked PCA when he was going to homer so that Palencia could win the bullpen homer-guessing contest. I guess PCA won it for him, and PCA wanted to make sure he knew.

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  99. berselius,

    (dying laughing)

    I’ve noticed it with Brewers hitters as well lately that they tend to interact with the bullpen on their way around second base. Kind of a cool aspect of that ballpark is the visibility of the bullpen from the field and vice versa.

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  101. You just don’t see a lot of pitches (especially fastballs) that high AND that far inside getting called strikes. WTF.

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  105. Rice Cube,

    The thing is though, he will after the game! (dying laughing)

    At least by gameday standards, that seemed to be a perfect example of a call that would have fallen into the umpire’s buffer zone (not a strike but won’t get penalized for it) but now will get flagged for it.

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  106. Rice Cube,

    (dying laughing), but Contreras is STRUGGLING to catch. The umpire will rarely call a pitch a strike when he gets hit by it! (dying laughing)

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  124. Guessing we’ll see a reliever up for a few days and then Cade Horton to take Shota’s next turn in the rotation.

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  125. I’m guessing the best way for the Cubs to survive a Shota injury would be to add a productive third baseman to the lineup.

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  128.   Quote  Reply

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