Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (17-12) at Pittsburgh Pirates (11-18)

In Series Previews by berselius131 Comments

The toughest* part of the Cubs schedule is finally behind them but they shouldn’t take their foot of the gas. And while the Pirates overall are a step down from the Dodgers et al., they do still have this Paul Skenes guy, who outdueled Yamamoto in his last start. The Pirates are coming off a double LA road trip, where they lost a series to the actual LA team and won one against the team that merely claims to be.

*They still have the Mets and Giants back to back next week, so it’s not all smooth sailing

Team Leaders

Fun with small sample size edition

Cubs

  • OBP: Carson Kelly (.517)
  • ISO: Kelly (.512)
  • HR: Tucker (7)
  • R+RBI: Tucker (50)
  • wRC+: Kelly (259)
  • BSR: PCA (2.8)
  • Defense: PCA (6.4)
  • SP K/9: Rea (11.48)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (1.87)
  • SP ERA: Rea (1.35)
  • SP FIP: Rea (1.18)
  • RP K/9: Keller (11.91)
  • RP BB/9: Palencia (3.52)
  • RP ERA: Pressly (2.25)
  • RP FIP: Keller (2.26)
  • Hitter WAR: PCA (2.0)
  • Pitcher WAR: Rea (0.7)

Pirates

  • OBP: Joey Bart (.370)
  • ISO: Oneil Cruz (.290)
  • HR: Cruz (8)
  • R+RBI: Cruz (33)
  • wRC+: Cruz (145)
  • BSR: Cruz (1.4)
  • Defense: Ke’Bryan Hayes (5.5)
  • SP K/9: Skenes (9.32)
  • SP BB/9: Skenes (0.96)
  • SP ERA: Andrew Heaney (1.72)
  • SP FIP: Skenes (1.72)
  • RP K/9: David Bednar (14.40)
  • RP BB/9: Tim Mayza (0.96)
  • RP ERA: Justin Lawrence (0.79)
  • RP FIP: Ryan Borucki (2.21)
  • Hitter WAR: Cruz (0.9)
  • Pitcher WAR: Skenes (1.6)

I’ve said that Connor Joe might be the most Pirates player of all time, but Joey Bart actually sounds like he could have been a pirate captain back in the Golden Age of Piracy.

Who isn’t available

Javier Assad re-aggravated his oblique strain last week, and is going to have to rehab and start from scratch, bleh. Tyson Miller has pitched in three games in Iowa as he rehabs a spring training injury, and might need to return soon or be released due to roster rules. Ryan Brasier has started throwing off a mound and could be back next month.

Fellow top starter Jared Jones is shut down with an elbow injury suffered in spring training. Tests showed that he didn’t need surgery but it looks like he’ll miss about half the season even if there are no further setbacks. Reliever Justin Lawrence hit the IL last week with elbow discomfort, and is getting the dreaded Second Opinion. Fellow RP Tim Mayza is shut down for the next 6 weeks with a shoulder sprain. First baseman Spencer Horwitz, who the Pirates picked up from Toronto in a three-team trade, is rehabbing a wrist injury suffered in February and could be up to the big league team in the next week or so. Catcher Endy Rodriguez is on the IL after taking a weirdly bounced Skenes curveball off his hand, and is TBD to return

Pitching Matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher

Tuesday: Shota Imanaga, LHP (8.95, 2.28, 3.85) vs Andrew Heaney, LHP (8.40, 2.83, 4.48), 5:40 PM CT

Heany is a well-traveled, occasionally cromulent mid-30s pitcher. In other word, exactly the kind of guy that the Bob Nutting Pirates loves to sign. He’s done surprisingly well this year, and is coming off a six inning, one-hit, nine-strikeout blanking of the Angles.

Wednesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8.87, 2.93, 3.91) vs Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP (7.48, 3.39, 3.98), 5:40 PM CT

Mlodzinski is mostly projected as a reliever, so you can adjust those numbers up a bit. Or don’t. I can’t tell you how to role-shift projections. he hasn’t gone longer than five innings in any start, seems like he’ll mostly just be a two turns through the rotation and done guy.

Thursday: Colin Rea, RHP (7.20, 2.39, 4.27) vs Paul Skenes, RHP (10.36, 2.37, 3.15), 11:35 AM CT

Skenes is great, there’s not much more to say. He’s not invincible, as he’s been touched up by the Cardinals, but he’s coming off 6.1 innings against the Dodgers with nine K’s, no walks, and no runs. It will be fun to see him match up with Kyle Tucker, as both guys have legitimate claim to be the most boring superstars in baseball. There can be only one!

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Comments

  4. Rice Cube

    https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2025/04/29/kyle-tucker-extension-news/

    And I’ll take it a step further with some additional reporting of my own. I have heard that Kyle Tucker does like the Cubs and would be theoretically interested in an extension, but first wants to feel out the organization and the city before deciding to engage in full-on negotiations (not all that surprising, seeing as he has a family and is presumably going to sign a decade+ long deal). When you include that part in the mix, suddenly all of these seemingly disparate, conflicting reports start to add up.

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  9. Author
    berselius

    Hopefully this delay isn’t too long

    i.e. the game starts just after I leave the cell dead zone on my commute

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  33. andcounting

    It’s nice to have a “Pat and Ron read This Day in Baseball History trivia to keep things interesting” game every once in a while.

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  43. Author
    berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #243

    “4×4”
    🟢🟡⚪️⚪️
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

    Some big WAGs

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  49. Perkins

    I don’t know enough random 90s Cubs pitchers.

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #243

    “4×4”
    🟢🟢🟡🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  53. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron vs north paw Mlodzinski

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    C Kelly
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    SS Swanson
    3B Berti

    SP Boyd

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  55. Author
    berselius

    dammit, I just found out that Tommy Edman has a degree in computational science. Don’t make me like the guy, universe (dying laughing)

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  81. Author
    berselius

    Daily Walkoff ⚾️
    Cubs #244

    “Both Sides Of The Ball”
    🟡🟢🟡🟡
    🟢🟢🟢🟢🚀

    dailywalkoff.com

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  82. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube,

    Full squadron in today’s Highlander matchup

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    C Amaya
    SS Swanson
    3B Lopez

    SP Rea

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  83. Author
    berselius

    Looks like the real rain won’t get there until 4-5 so hopefully the game should be gtg

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  84. Author
    berselius

    A friend of mine lives outside of Pittsburgh and lost power in the storms on Tuesday…and it still hasn’t been restored. 80mph winds, the power company said it could be a week 👀

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  88. andcounting

    I don’t want to be all click-baity and post a link to it, but have you seen video of the fan falling? It looks like he just jumped over. No idea how many different explanations there could be for what happened, but the Occam’s razor explanation would be pretty sad and shocking.

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  90. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I have not seen the video and have no desire to, I want to say it was an accident because if I were going to deliberately do something like that for self-harm, I’m jumping off the top of the bleachers to the street…and if I wanted to just get on the field, I’d go to the LF bleachers where the walls are shorter, but I have no idea what happened in that poor fan’s mind that night.

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  91. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    berselius,

    We’re at the point in the decline of society where even seeing video gives no great assurance of truth, which was the first thought that crossed my mind when I saw the version that autoplayed on my FB feed. I genuinely don’t know if it was manipulated or even mostly fabricated. If it’s real, it’s shocking; if it’s manipulated, it’s disgusting on another level. The resulting net feeling is pretty gross.

    So not seeking it out is a really good plan.

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  92. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think the Pirates did a reasonable job just acknowledging the incident that happened, but the statement not telling you initially whether the guy even survived was troubling. I imagine at some point the various news outlets will have an update, but it does tell a bit about the times we are in that we need multiple sourcing and probably some social media-based eyewitness accounts before we know the full story.

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  93. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I applaud the basic “what we all saw happen was greatly concerning, and the rest is none of our business” gist. The statement said what they knew and were free to say and showed the decisive intention to leave it at that with no impending updates. It really made it clear that anything else you hear or read should be taken with a grain of salt.

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  98. Author
    berselius

    I’m hoping that Skenes lost like 10% of his magic by growing the beard instead of just having the stache

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  105. Rice Cube

    Walking the bases loaded and getting out of it with a first pitch GIDP suggests someone needs to be flogged but I guess that was the pitch he thought he could do something with sigh

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  110. Author
    berselius

    I guess I should have clarified the criteria of how Skenes-Tucker is decided in the boring-off (dying laughing).

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  120. andcounting

    One of the more encouraging things about this season has been the number of solid offensive performances against ace-level pitchers. Gotta love a 3-homer game against Skenes and limiting him to 5 innings.

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  123. Author
    berselius

    Feels like Cruz has had like 12 PAs today, I swear he’s the one at the plate every time I look over

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  124. Author
    berselius

    Love the implicit shade from Pat at road games whenever he mentions that the scoreboard is imploring the fans to get loud (dying laughing)

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