Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (1-2) at Atlanta Braves (0-3)

In Uncategorized by berselius138 Comments

Well, the offense looks like it’s going to be fun this year. It doesn’t look like the pitching staff has magically learned to throw strikes yet, however.

The Braves may have built their team around young pitching, but the real strength of the team seems to be its defense. 13 different players started games for them last year, and they had 30+ make relief appearances.

Team Leaders

I’ll use the teams’ 2018 numbers here (excluding injured/departed players), since looking at a bunch of zeros is boring.

Cubs

  • OBP: Ben Zobrist (.378)
  • ISO: El Mago (.264)
  • HR: Baez (34)
  • R+RBI: Baez (212)
  • wRC+: Baez (131)
  • BSR: Jason Heyward (4.3)
  • DRS: Albert Almora (9)
  • SP K/9: Yu Darvish (11.03)
  • SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.99)
  • SP FIP: Cole Hamels (3.42)
  • RP FIP: Carl Edwards Jr (11.60)
  • RP BB/9: Pedro Strop (3.17)
  • RP FIP: Edwards (2.93)
  • WAR: Baez (5.3)

Barves

  • OBP: Freddie Freeman (.388)
  • ISO: Ronald Acuña (.259)
  • HR: Acuña (26)
  • R+RBI: Freeman (192)
  • wRC+: Acuña (143)
  • BSR: Ender Inciarte (6.1)
  • DRS: Inciarte (17)
  • SP K/9: Mike Foltynewicz (13.50)
  • SP BB/9: Folty (3.34)
  • SP FIP: Folty (3.37)
  • RP K/9: Sam Freeman (10.37)
  • RP BB/9: Dan Wilnker (2.98)
  • RP FIP: A.J. Minter (2.72)
  • WAR: Freeman (5.2)

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

The Braves made a big splash this offseason by signing Josh Donaldson to a 1 year, $23m deal. He’s gone one for twelve so far in his Barves career, so I guess that’s enough to call that signing a bust. They might as well release him before the game, it’s a sunk cost.

Folty is on the IL (this still feels strange to write) with elbow soreness, which are two words a team never likes to see. The same goes for shoulder inflammation on A.J. Minter and Kevin Gausman. That’s two of their best pitchers and Kevin Gausman.

Pitching Probables

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.

Thursday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.54, 2.19, 3.72) vs Sean Newcomb, LHP (8.79, 4.28, 4.16), 6:10 pm CT

Hendricks is coming off a big extension, and hopefully he can provide the Cubs with some hope that at least one of their pitchers isn’t going to walk a billion guys.

Newcomb has a good fastball, the rest is still a work in progress. He got off to a great start last year until teams started to sit on his fastball.

Saturday: Jon Lester, LHP (7.71, 2.91, 4.09) vs Julio Teheran, RHP (7.95, 3.84, 4.61), 6:20 PM CT

It’s hard to believe that Teheran has been in the league for six full seasons already. He’s had terrible peripherals the last two seasons, mostly due to a tendency towards the long ball. While the ball is in play though, the Braves defense does him a lot of favors. He posted a hilariously low .217 BABIP last season.

Lester was just fine in his opening day start. I think the Cubs would be pretty happy with ‘just fine’ for 31 more starts.

Sunday: Yu Darvish, RHP (10.53, 3.59, 3.99) vs Max Fried, LHP (8.98, 5.10, 4.45), 6:20 PM CT

Darvish was pretty much the opposite of ‘just fine’ in his first start of the year. Who knows if it was after effects of the blister he suffered in late spring training, or nerves in facing his former team. Based on all the stories out of the spring he’s not ‘broken’ but he’ll certainly have to do better than this.

Fried has mostly been working out of the pen and probably won’t go deep in this one. He’s a guy with big strikeout and big walk numbers all through his career, so this could be a long night.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. andcounting

    The frustrating thing about the small sample this season has offered up is the trends that are most likely to continue: high walk rate, brief outings from the starting rotation/high workload for the bullpen, and regression of the bullpen. I mean, we can agree this team is going to need an average of 3+ innings of relief pitching per game, and that won’t be fun to watch. Strop will probably be mildly better than he’s been. Edwards will completely suck sometimes. Nobody is likely to dominate. The luck inherent in relief pitching may go in the Cubs’ favor moving forward, but it will never be fun to watch. This isn’t a bullpen we’ll ever look forward to seeing take over a game, and this isn’t a rotation that’s going to go deep into many games. This offense may keep scoring a lot, but this team will blow a lot of leads.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  2. Myles

    If only there was a player out there who threw a lot of strikes and had experience closing games for big-market teams. Bonus if he’s a free agent and costs only money.

    Thoyer: Say no more, we’ve just signed Ryan Madson.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  3. Author
    berselius

    Myles:
    If only there was a player out there who threw a lot of strikes and had experience closing games for big-market teams. Bonus if he’s a free agent and costs only money.

    Thoyer: Say no more, we’ve just signed Joe Borowski.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  4. andcounting

    We were all so dumb for complaining about the off day. It was our last chance at happiness until 2025. At least we have until Thursday before they play again, apparently. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    6

    0
  5. Myles

    andcounting:
    We were all so dumb for complaining about the off day. It was our last chance at happiness until 2025. At least we have until Thursday before they play again, apparently. (dying laughing)

    We keep this up, and to me they’ll all be off days!

    Tip your wait staff.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  6. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Almora
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Baez
    C Contreras
    2B Bote
    RF Heyward
    P Hendricks
    LF Zagunis

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. dmick89

    I really wish Schwarber was given a chance again to play every day. It’s such a waste of his potential talent to not give him another chance.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  8. North Side Pat

    – Turns on radio.

    – Hears Pat Hughes say, “The first inning is an absolute disaster.”

    – Turns off radio.

      Quote  Reply

    3

    0
  9. andcounting

    Maybe it’s Thoyer’s plan to make this team so bad that Heyward will exercise the option on his contract.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  10. WaLi

    Man even Rizzo with an error. The team just seems emotionally drained or something after the last two games and the defensive miscues in the first. Where’s the leadership?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. dmick89

    The Cubs are in last place. I think they’ve got a shot to move up to 4th if they play above my expectations the rest of the way. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. andcounting

    Myles,

    So he’ll be 29/30 when that deal ends? So he gets about $35-40 million more than he would’ve gotten over the next four years and probably $30-$50 million less than he would have gotten the 4 years following? I may be way off, but if I could go from $500k to $12 million as a 21 year old, I’d have a real tough time passing that up. It’s still a great deal for Atlanta, but it’s much better than what the arb system currently does to these guys.

    I’ll keep saying it, the collusion against free agency continues to pay off for the owners and younger players (in the short term, at least).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. dmick89

    andcounting: I may be way off, but if I could go from $500k to $12 million as a 21 year old, I’d have a real tough time passing that up.

    Especially when you’re so far away from free agency and still a couple years away from making big money in arbitration. I think he came out pretty good all things considered. I’d have a difficult time turning $50 million down at that age when a significant payoff is still aways off.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. dmick89

    Acuna wasn’t going to be arbitration eligible for 3 more seasons so he’d probably only have made a couple million by the time arbitration hit. Yeah, that may be a good deal for the Braves, but it’s also a really good deal for Acuna Jr.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. dmick89

    WaLi,

    I can’t believe the Cubs thought it was legal. It’s almost like the Cubs went up to CJ this offseason and said, “hey, we think you’re problem is that you’re not making your delivery difficult enough so we’re going to really fuck it all up and see how that goes.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Perkins

    To day’s base ball squadron:
    Zobrist (RF)
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Baez (SS)
    Schwarber
    Contreras
    Descalso (2B)
    Lester
    Heyward (CF)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I genuinely think they’re trying to effectively end free agency by taking calculated gambles on extensions for everyone. The thinking is, pay everyone more than what they would typically get during team control/arbitration in the old system but much less than they would get in free agency if they wind up being really good. If they can make that the standard, the owners will wind up saving a ton of money.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  18. andcounting

    Also, if they push the average free agent age a couple years older (past or closer to the point of physical decline), they can reduce the size of free agent contracts even further.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. dmick89

    andcounting,

    Maybe, but I honestly don’t see a point in negotiating any extensions with any player unless you’re able to lock Bryant into a long-term deal that’s relatively team friendly. Also, he’s the only player I’d even consider locking up long-term, but obviously the Cubs want to lock every player up and that doesn’t make sense to me.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  20. WaLi

    I think if the Cubs bats can score more runs than the pitchers allow, they have a good chance of winning tonight.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  21. dmick89

    Unless this team leads by 10, they’ve got no shot at winning. Seriously, 10 run lead in the 9th inning and they only have a 55% chance of winning the game. They fucking suck.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. North Side Pat

    I’m getting too old to be worked up over an April baseball game. That said, fuck this fucking shit.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  23. uncle dave

    I have a certain respect for how previous ownership groups ran this team. Wrigley, the Trib, Zell, whatever. They were just fucking cheap and that’s how they ran things, so at least that made sense on some level.

    The Rickettses, on the other hand, painstakingly built a good and profitable franchise just so they could then light it on fire to prove that they’re assholes. I will never understand the point of all this.

    Fuck them, and fuck the Cubs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. uncle dave

    I’ll just watch the damned A’s this year. Ramon Laureano is like 85% as much fun as Javy Baez, but tickets are 10% of the price. Appeals to my Scottish sensibilities.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  25. Ryno

    Perkins:
    I’m still amazed that the front office did basically nothing to address the bullpen.

    I wonder if this is all Theo’s plan to get back at ownership for tightening the purse strings this offseason. Leak to the media that the evil Ricketts family won’t let us spend and then refuse to upgrade the team so the decision to not spend looks even worse. Oh yeah, and then leak more details about how awful the Ricketts family is.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  26. Author
    berselius

    dmick89:
    I figured the Cubs would end up finishing about 15 games or more behind the Brewers, but they might be 15 out by the end of April

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. Perkins

    To day’s base ball squadron:
    Almora
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Baez
    Contreras
    Bote
    Schwarber
    Darvish
    Zagunis

    I’d have preferred Zobrist in RF over Zagunis, but it’s good to see Schwarber get a start against a LHP.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. Myles

    I’m basically never going to watch games that Schwarber doesn’t start until he proves that he sucks.

    It’s malpratice to not start him 6 of 7 games.

      Quote  Reply

    2

    0
  29. Rizzo the Rat

    Yikes. I saw Aroldis Chapman today, and he was throwing 95-97. He got through the inning fine, but he had to rely on his breaking ball more.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  30. Perkins

    I’m beginning to think Ryno’s theory is correct, and that it extends to Maddon’s using players in sub-optimal ways.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  31. dmick89

    Perkins:
    I’m saying 15 games until Maddon is fired. Anyone want the under?

    Under. If the Cubs get swept this weekend, I think he’ll be fired before they even have their home opener. I think the Cubs will get swept this weekend. This is like 1997.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  32. North Side Pat

    Pat & Ron’s discussion about having to wear makeup for TV appearances is the highlight of this game.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  33. andcounting

    Carl Edwards Jr. threw a pitch that was so bad, it looked like a strike in the MLB atbat app either because it entered the strike zone on the bounce or because the spot where it bounced was so far in front of the plate (it hit grass) that it lined up with the center of the strike zone frame. Both are plausible explanations. I can’t imagine an explanation for why Edwards would be allowed to face more than zero batters in that situation. But hey, It was nice knowing you, Joe.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment