Series Preview: Arizona Sneks (12-7) at Chicago Cubs (12-9)

In Series Previews by berselius51 Comments

Luckily the MLB schedulers decided to get my Arizona-based blackouts out of the way by mid-April this year. The Cubs split their four game series in the desert, though they had the final game in hand until the Cubs bullpen melted down on getaway day. These are the last scheduled games but odds seem pretty good that they’ll face each other again at some point in 2025.

Team Leaders

Fun with small sample sizes edition

Sneks

  • OBP: Ketel Marte (.469)
  • ISO: Corbin Carroll (.370)
  • HR: Carroll (6)
  • R+RBI: Carroll (32)
  • wRC+: Pavin Smith (210)
  • BSR: Carroll (1.0)
  • Defense: Geraldo Perdomo (4.0)
  • SP K/9: Eduardo Rodriguez (10.80)
  • SP BB/9: Brandon Pfaadt (1.90)
  • SP FIP: Rodriguez (3.25)
  • RP K/9: Justin Martinez (12.15)
  • RP BB/9: Martinez (0.00)
  • RP FIP: Martinez (0.76)
  • WAR: Carroll (1.6)

Cubs

  • OBP: Carson Kelly (.575)
  • ISO: Kelly (.556)
  • HR: Tucker (5)
  • R+RBI: Kyle Tucker (38)
  • wRC+: Kelly (295)
  • BSR: PCA 1.5
  • Defense: PCA 3.8
  • SP K/9: Ben Brown (9.00)
  • SP BB/9: Jameson Taillon (2.08)
  • SP FIP: Matt Boyd (3.28)
  • RP K/9: Porter Hodge (12.00)
  • RP BB/9: Ethan Roberts (2.25)
  • RP FIP: Hodge (1.34)
  • WAR: Kelly (1.2)

Carson Kelly for MVP!

Who isn’t available?

Most notably for the Dbags, star 2b Ketel Marte is out with a hamstring strain until late April/early May. The only other real name of note is Jordan Montgomery, who is donezo for the year with TJS.

For the Cubs, the obvious big name is Justin Steele, who is done for the year (and probably some of next, bleh). Javier Assad is ramping up from his spring training oblique injury, and threw 3.1 innings on Tuesday. He’s due for another start with the I-Cubs on Sunday. Eli Morgan, who left Monday’s game with an injury, is due for further evaluation this week. Offseason RP pickup Ryan Brasier is playing catch but does not seem like he’ll be ready for at least a few weeks.

Pitching Matchups, times, etc

ZiPS projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.

Friday: Corbin Burnes, RHP (8.99, 2.65, 3.24) vs Colin Rea, RHP (7.02, 2.42, 4.41), 1:20 PM CT

It’s a face-off of two former Beers pitchers! Burnes was the Dbacks big offseason signing, but the Cubs managed to dodge him in the four game opening series because reasons. There was lots of chatter around Burnes’s peripherals resulting in an arrow pointing down, but he’s still a very good pitcher even if he isn’t the CYA caliber guy from 2021. He’d certainly be an improvement on most of the Cubs rotation. He’s struggled with walks and the long ball so far this year, let’s hope that continues for at least another start.

Rea looked…really good?…filling in for Justin Steele last weekend. Much like the rest of the Cubs back of the rotation types (Assad, Wicks, etc) he’s a cromulent pitcher. I think of him as a boring swingman, but he was pretty good starting for Milwaukee last year, making 27 starts with a credible 4.29 ERA and 162 innings. Still I think he gets bumped aside for one of the young guys soon-ish and goes back to being the long/swing man, since Assad is basically a younger version of him, role-wise, at the moment. He went 3.2 innings in his spot start against the Dodgers, allowing just one run while striking out five.

Saturday: Zac Gallen, RHP (8.84, 3.06, 3.58) vs Ben Brown, RHP (9.55, 3.51, 3.85), 1:20 PM CT

The Cubs knocked around Gallen on one of the openings day, chasing him after four innings and four runs (and four walks, and four hits, and four strikeouts….dude loves the number four I guess). He bounced back in his next start against the Yankees, striking out 13 with no walks, but his next two starts have looked more like opening day. His numbers took a medium-sized step back in 2024, mostly due to a big spike in his walk rate, and 2025 is shaping up to be the same.

Brown looked great in his last start, shutting down the talented Dodgers lineup for six innings with five strikeouts and no walks. I’d say it was the best start of his career, but he actually had two better last year. His best was a seven inning, ten strikeout game in Milwaukee, but just behind it was a six inning, one-hit outing in Arizona in his second MLB start. Hope we see the same this week!

Sunday: Merrill Kelly, RHP (7.44, 2.83, 4.04) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.23, 2.18, 4.35), 1:20 PM CT

This is a repeat matchup of the second game in Arizona, one of several where Pat Hughes favorite Eugenio Suarez went off on Cubs pitching. Since then Kelly has been blown up by the Yankees, and had two solid starts against the O’s and Marlins. He put a lot of Cubs on the bases but they weren’t able to capitalize, when have I heard that before.

Taillon’s stuff seems to look better this year, he just needs to avoid throwing that old Give Up A Dinger pitch. He’s given up at least one home run in every game so far.

Go Cubs. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do. Unless that thing is extending Tucker and PCA. Do that.

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Comments

  8. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    SS Swandong
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    C Kelly
    3B Brujan

    SP Rea

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  14. Author
    berselius

    I complained about it in the post above but still forgot I’d be blacked out today, (dying laughing).

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  37. Perkins

    Maybe the Cubs should consider having the caterers give the Dbags food poisoning or something.

    Or they could sign David Robertson. You know, something different than what they’re doing now.

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  41. andcounting

    The Dbacks didn’t just score 10 in an inning and lose the game. In the inning sandwich when the Diamondbacks scored 10, there was more bread than meat.

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  42. Rice Cube

    I do like the resilience, I was actually wondering if Craig would try to quit messing around and just have Hodge and Pressly do work since they hadn’t pitched since Tuesday, but Wicks sure messed everything up and then Hodge and Roberts messed it up more…bad day to serve meatballs.

    I’m sure they’ll figure something out but these comebacks should obviously not be counted on, although I was holding out hope since there were 6 outs remaining at the time (dying laughing)

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  45. Author
    berselius

    (dying laughing), I had to run to another building to meet with someone but we had gameday open

    Cubs offense vs Cubs bullpen is going to be quite the contest this year (dying laughing)

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  46. Author
    berselius

    berselius:
    Updated batting line for Carson Kelly

    AVG .429
    OBP .585
    SLG 1.071
    wOBA .640
    wRC+ 321

    Update:

    AVG : .419
    OBP: .578
    SLG: 1.097
    wOBA : .645
    wRC+: 325

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  48. Author
    berselius

    berselius,

    Other cubs

    Kyle Tucker
    .318/.419/.636
    wOBA :.442
    wRC+: 189

    Seiya
    .284/.372/.541
    wOBA: .394
    wRC+: 158

    Buschhhhhhh
    .306/.375/.583
    wOBA: .414
    wRC+: 171

    PCA
    .271/.326/.482
    wOBA: .353
    wRC+: 130

    lists of numbers is tremendous content

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