Last Year:
The Reds surprised many by winning the division over the heavily favored Cardinals. My memory stinks, but from what I remember BPro had them as a slight favorite going into the season and I thought they were insane. The Reds vindicated BP, posting the best offense in the NL (.339 wOBA) with below-average pitching (4.29 FIP, 12th in NL and 8th in NL), which is not too surprising given their launching pad of a ballpark. But the biggest surprise was their defense, which ranked 4th in the NL by UZR (+44.8) and first in the Fan Scouting Report (44 Runs, 24 higher than the next best team). The Reds have plus+plus defenders at 2b, 3b, and RF, who more than made up for the defensive adventures of LF Johnny Gomes and SS Orlando Cabrera.
The Reds played .500-ish ball out of the gate, and even dipped all the way down to last place in the division on April 24. However, following that they went on a 5 game winning streak and were never lower than second in the division for the rest of the season. They took the division lead on August 15 and it was never really close after that. They weren’t very active during the season — the only big move they made was to trade OF Chris Dickerdoodle to Milwaukee for Jim Edmonds, who continued his hot hitting after joining the team.
The Reds were swept out of the NLDS by the Phillies, where they were shut out in game 3 by Hamels and no-hit in game 1 by Halladay. Jay Bruce drew the lone walk of Halladay in the 5th inning of that game, preventing the no-no (if you think about it, a perfect game should be called a no-no, not a no-hitter). They took an early 4-0 lead in game 2 but back-to-back surprising errors by the normally sure-handed Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips as well as a rough outing by Aroldis Chapman turned a 4-0 lead into a 7-4 loss.
Offseason Moves:
The Reds stayed pat for the most part. They let SS Orlando Cabrera go and replaced him with and equally rapidly aging shortstop in Edgar Renteria, who they signed to a 1/2.1 deal in January. The resigned starting catcher Ramon Hernandez at 1/3, who is the nominal starter but isn’t quite as good as co-catcher Ryan Hanigan. They picked up former Giants OF Fred Lewis to be their 4th outfielder, and kicked the tires on former Marlins Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Hermida, neither of whom is likely to make the squad.
Players To Watch:
I’m not a huge fan of any of the Red’s starting pitchers, but the most interesting guy in the mix is Aroldis Chapman and his triple digit fastball. The Reds signed him to a 6/30.25 contract and while he could make up that value as their future closer, they’re going to get a lot more value out of him starting. Going into the season Chapman had six pitchers (Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Wood, and Leake) in front of him so it wasn’t too surprising that the Reds would let him work out of the pen for 2011. However, now that Bailey is headed to the DL, Arroyo has mono, and Cueto is having minor issues with his shoulder (not to mention that Volquez is still bouncing back from TJS), Chapman might find a few SP innings anyway. He has the most electric stuff I’ve ever seen, and if he can get it over the plate he’s going to be an elite pitcher for years to come.
Projections:
Here’s a rough look at their team headed into the 2011 season. Since we don’t know a ton about not the Cubs, we used BP’s depth charts to estimate playing time. The players OBP/SLG are a simple average of their PECOTA and Oliver projections. The defensive numbers are from the players’ 2010 FSR, and baserunning was ignored unless a player was especially good or awful on the basepaths.
| Hitter | Pos | PA | OBP | SLG | Fld | WAR |
| Ramon Hernandez | CA | 320 | 0.324 | 0.384 | 0.1 | 1.03 |
| Ryan Hanigan | CA | 309 | 0.356 | 0.370 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Joey Votto | 1B | 650 | 0.394 | 0.545 | 0.4 | 5.39 |
| Yonder Alonso | 1B | 50 | 0.323 | 0.408 | 0 | 0.01 |
| Brandon Phillips | 2B | 646 | 0.323 | 0.434 | 1.8 | 3.63 |
| Paul Janish | 2B | 100 | 0.304 | 0.345 | 1 | 0.09 |
| Edgar Renteria | SS | 375 | 0.310 | 0.357 | -0.6 | 0.01 |
| Paul Janish | SS | 300 | 0.304 | 0.345 | 0.5 | 0.28 |
| Scott Rolen | 3B | 560 | 0.342 | 0.430 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| Miguel Cairo | 3B | 100 | 0.304 | 0.354 | -0.2 | -0.05 |
| Jonny Gomes | LF | 385 | 0.321 | 0.448 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| Fred Lewis | LF | 200 | 0.337 | 0.404 | -0.3 | 0.21 |
| Drew Stubbs | CF | 630 | 0.314 | 0.382 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| Chris Heisey | CF | 35 | 0.320 | 0.434 | -0.4 | 0.08 |
| Jay Bruce | RF | 650 | 0.335 | 0.488 | 0.9 | 3.3 |
| Chris Heisey | RF | 51 | 0.320 | 0.434 | 0.1 | 0.08 |
| Pitcher | S/R | IP | ERA | WAR |
| Edinson Volquez | S | 134 | 4.08 | 2 |
| Bronson Arroyo | S | 186 | 4.25 | 2.38 |
| Johnny Cueto | S | 180 | 4.39 | 2.01 |
| Homer Bailey | S | 158 | 4.69 | 1.24 |
| Travis Wood | S | 168 | 4.07 | 2.52 |
| Mike Leake | S | 104 | 4.56 | 0.96 |
| Francisco Cordero | R | 68 | 3.98 | 0.75 |
| Nick Masset | R | 75 | 3.91 | 0.69 |
| Aroldis Chapman | R | 110 | 4.31 | 0.23 |
Win talent: 81.6 Wins
This could be even lower, given the potential SP injury issues mentioned above. I was pretty surprised to see this, but a big part of the Reds top offense last year were guys like Scott Rolen (.367 wOBA), Drew Stubbs (.345) and Ryan Hanigan (.368) playing out of their minds. They’ll still have a good offense and contend but they’re going to be hit by the regression hammer in 2011.
Comments
Yes, RC, that is the book, and is basically required reading for the saberatti. I keep my copy on the coffee table so I can quickly reference it in discourse if needed.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Yes, RC, that is the book, and is basically required reading for the saberatti. I keep my copy on the coffee table so I can quickly reference it in discourse if needed.[/quote]
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Yes, RC, that is the book, and is basically required reading for the saberatti. I keep my copy on the coffee table so I can quickly reference it in discourse if needed.[/quote]
Cool, thanks. I’ll check it out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
/Miles
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at Miles’ PBP of the intrasquad game:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
IDK if you guys get all bent out of shape about time between pitches, but I don’t (though Posada’s constant mound visits I do find irksome). But tothis, I say ugh:
http://www.npr.org/2011/03/30/134960461/its-time-for-baseball-to-stop-wasting-fans-time
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]IDK if you guys get all bent out of shape about time between pitches, but I don’t (though Posada’s constant mound visits I do find irksome). But tothis, I say ugh:
http://www.npr.org/2011/03/30/134960461/its-time-for-baseball-to-stop-wasting-fans-time%5B/quote%5D
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]IDK if you guys get all bent out of shape about time between pitches, but I don’t (though Posada’s constant mound visits I do find irksome). But tothis, I say ugh:
http://www.npr.org/2011/03/30/134960461/its-time-for-baseball-to-stop-wasting-fans-time%5B/quote%5D
The time between pitches gives me time to play with my phone or go take a leak. I like that time to myself (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]
[/quote]Methinks all the philosophy graduate seminars at Frostbite Falls University got canceled today.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Not surprisingly, the four AL East teams not in Baltimore are in the top 10 of FanGraphs’ organizational rankings by default (they’re at #7 now which is Texas). The Orioles are actually #15.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
All of these are outstanding, b, but my favorite part of each one is this:
AndCountingQuote Reply
This chart is win, or should I say, save?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/theres-mariano—-and-everyone-else/2011/03/29/AFUeBswB_graphic.html
Also – Cubs bringing up he rear, again.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/enter-andrew-cashner/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/enter-andrew-cashner/[/quote]
From the article:
We’re talking about a human being.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Loved this too:
MishQuote Reply
Especially, “the” Cashner. Good work Brad.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/enter-andrew-cashner/[/quote]Finally some decent content back up at Fangraphs! Huzzah, Brad!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Especially, “the” Cashner. Good work Brad.[/quote]I think Brad has pretty much owned this offseason in terms of coming up with great content without the assistance of any actual baseball.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I think Brad has pretty much owned this offseason in terms of coming up with great content without the assistance of any actual baseball.[/quote]
You and I agree.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I think Brad has pretty much owned this offseason in terms of coming up with great content without the assistance of any actual baseball.[/quote]Correct.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/30/2081259/best-left-fielders
It’s sort of strange to see Soriano on this list of best LFs given how much disdain the Cubs fan base has for him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Clearly, b, that Soriano-to-Crawford comp was complete shit. (dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
Alvin’s going to hatefuck SWL tonight.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Alvin’s going to hatefuck SWL tonight.[/quote]
That’s if his brain doesn’t explode first. SWL is win.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, I don’t always mind those, except when it’s Neifi FUCKING PEREZ IN THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH WITH TWO OUTS URGE TO KILL RISING……..
I remember arguing about this with a friend of mine the next day. I’m still full of awe that he argued that was a good bunt. So maddening. I counter argued and called him an Assahat.
DustyBottomsQuote Reply
Harry with his usual interesting stuff that I largely don’t understand:
http://networkedblogs.com/g3wIN
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Harry with his usual interesting stuff that I largely don’t understand:
http://networkedblogs.com/g3wIN[/quote]
The quick explanation is that all of those charts compare a ball’s flight path to a spinless ball. Each type of pitch spins differently and the type of spin affects where it ends up – which is why you see clusters of similar pitches.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I love Cashner. He’s going to be sweet, he and his five pitches.
DoogolasQuote Reply
you know Harry should put away his beanie babies & toy dragons and watch a game for once. Fuckin dweeb
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Harry with his usual interesting stuff that I largely don’t understand:
http://networkedblogs.com/g3wIN[/quote]All of the Cubs pitchers seem really good at paintball.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I love how the projection systems support my own biases against the Reds pitching staff.
BerseliusQuote Reply
B, i didn’t know until today, but Janish is the Reds starting SS. Renteria is just the back-up. These defensive projections as a team seem rather low to me. I’m expecting the Reds are worth at least 3 wins on defense. Probably closer to 4 or 5.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I love how the projection systems support my own biases against the Reds pitching staff.[/quote]
My naked eye point of view also tells me that the Reds’ pitching isn’t as good as they need to be. I’m appreciative that you threw the math into this post to justify my viewpoint.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Justin Inaz adds some very interesting points to the discussion we’re currently having. I can’t post the interview right now, but will do so around 6 pm or so. It’s probably the best one yet.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]B, i didn’t know until today, but Janish is the Reds starting SS. Renteria is just the back-up. These defensive projections as a team seem rather low to me. I’m expecting the Reds are worth at least 3 wins on defense. Probably closer to 4 or 5.[/quote]
Blame BPro (dying laughing). Since we don’t know the ins and outs of each team’s projected playing time I wanted to use a consistent source for all of these. Tango’s playing time projections might have been a better choice but those can’t be instantly updated like BP’s are.
The same goes for defense. I used 2010’s FSR since I feel better about that for a single season than any of the other metrics. There are a few question marks in there too (like Phillips being +18 again) but I wanted to stick to a process for making these and not try to fiddle with too many of the details.
BerseliusQuote Reply
If you give Janish another 300 PAs at SS that’s only a quarter of a win.
BerseliusQuote Reply
One other FSR result that had me scratching my head was Colby Rasmus’s. FSR has him at 0 runs, which is strange considering what an elite CF he’s supposed to be.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I am not a big Reds fan
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Are you guys doing the same thing you sort of did last year before everyone got disgusted with the Cubs, where you would forecast the likelihood of a Cubs’ win?
I saw that it’s unlikely Zack Greinke is able to play in April, so was just wondering how much ground the Cubs could make up given the injuries to Greinke (maybe Marcum?), Wainwright, and seemingly half of the Reds’ rotation. It sucks that they’re injured, but I’d be lying if I didn’t hope the Cubs could take advantage somehow.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Are you guys doing the same thing you sort of did last year before everyone got disgusted with the Cubs, where you would forecast the likelihood of a Cubs’ win?
I saw that it’s unlikely Zack Greinke is able to play in April, so was just wondering how much ground the Cubs could make up given the injuries to Greinke (maybe Marcum?), Wainwright, and seemingly half of the Reds’ rotation. It sucks that they’re injured, but I’d be lying if I didn’t hope the Cubs could take advantage somehow.[/quote]
The baseball gods are just clearing the road for a storybook year in Pittsburgh.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Are you guys doing the same thing you sort of did last year before everyone got disgusted with the Cubs, where you would forecast the likelihood of a Cubs’ win?
I saw that it’s unlikely Zack Greinke is able to play in April, so was just wondering how much ground the Cubs could make up given the injuries to Greinke (maybe Marcum?), Wainwright, and seemingly half of the Reds’ rotation. It sucks that they’re injured, but I’d be lying if I didn’t hope the Cubs could take advantage somehow.[/quote]
RC my WAG at the Cubs chances of winning the division are somewhere around 15% or so. Entirely possible, just not probable. Not nearly as hopeless as Houston or Pittsburgh.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I just figure that the Cubs have about a month before:
1. Greinke (and Marcum if he’s really that bad off) and Corey Hart return to full strength for Milwaukee…
2. Arroyo comes back from mono and Cueto comes back as well for the Reds…
3. The Cards struggle (or not, since Dave Duncan is awesome) with their 5th starter carousel.
So looking at the schedule, there’s cupcake-ish games against the Pirates and D’Backs before they have to take on Milwaukee and Houston on the road. They’ll probably get killed in Colorado, but do fairly well against the Padres (who might be missing Mat Latos). Then they play the Dodgers and Rockies at home before closing out the month against the D’Backs. They need to pretty much do what you guys said last year…get off to a fast start while the other teams are in recovery, or else it’s going to be a rough year. Again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Too much optimism around here lately. I just don’t feel it. I don’t think the Cubs ever beat the D-Backs anyway, and the Pirates owned them last year. I expect ironic hipster outings from Garza and Cashner, while D, Z and W have meh transitions possibly with pitiful run support.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
RC, I’m assuming you’re talking about each game thread where I posted a win expectancy? I’d like to do that, but to be honest I’m probably not going to get to it. At least not early on. Somehow my spreadsheet doesn’t work on the Mac 2011 Excel and I still need to update a few things in it anyway. I’ll try to get to it this weekend, but no guarantees.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Too much optimism around here lately. I just don’t feel it. I don’t think the Cubs ever beat the D-Backs anyway, and the Pirates owned them last year. I expect ironic hipster outings from Garza and Cashner, while D, Z and W have meh transitions possibly with pitiful run support.[/quote]Good point about the transitions. It will be interesting to watch Dempster transition from spring training to regular season. Same for Z and Wells. Keep an eye on it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]RC, I’m assuming you’re talking about each game thread where I posted a win expectancy? I’d like to do that, but to be honest I’m probably not going to get to it. At least not early on. Somehow my spreadsheet doesn’t work on the Mac 2011 Excel and I still need to update a few things in it anyway. I’ll try to get to it this weekend, but no guarantees.[/quote]
No worries, I just thought it was really cool when you and berselius did those game previews last year. Not a big deal.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If anybody wants to go to this site and vote for the Six Row Porter and the Six Row EPA, my brother-in-law would appreciate it. It’s his brewery.
http://public.bracketeers.com/matchup.php?id=547&m=58
Aisle424Quote Reply
Hour and a half until the Discredited Fantasy Draft.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Hour and a half until the Discredited Fantasy Draft.[/quote]
I hope I get a chance to draft Koyie Hill.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Hour and a half until the Discredited Fantasy Draft.[/quote]I suck at fantasy drafts so I’m going auto.
I also sucked at this (22/30):
http://www.sporcle.com/games/br_tremblay/20cubs
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I forget Alex Gonzalez hit 20 HRs in 2003.
MishQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Fangraphs Second Opinion quick summary of Chris Young (SD):
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I hope I get a chance to draft Koyie Hill.[/quote]
There may be a less than 1% chance that you draft a catcher worse than Koyie Hill. You might as well have Aaron Miles be your catcher.
This assumes, of course, that Miles qualifies as a catcher in your discredited draft.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]There may be a less than 1% chance that you draft a catcher worse than Koyie Hill. You might as well have Aaron Miles be your catcher.
This assumes, of course, that Miles qualifies as a catcher in your discredited draft.[/quote]This assumes, of course, that Miles qualifies as a baseball player in our discredited draft.
MishQuote Reply
I would use Miles as my catcher, but he’s targeted as my starting SS
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I would use Miles as my catcher, but he’s targeted as my starting SS[/quote]What about Cesar Izturis? Back-up? That would leave Cedeno as your starting RF. Good call.
mb21Quote Reply
Q&A with Justin Inaz (Reds) is up now: http://obstructedview.net/articles/major-league-baseball/nl-central-questions-a-answers-cincinnati-reds.html
mb21Quote Reply