Last Off Day Before the All-Star Break 2026

I don’t necessarily know what “consistency” means in baseball because you have to account for the ebbs and flows of the season, which thus far has included two 10-game win streaks and one 10-game losing streak, along with this stretch where they won like 16 of their last 21 games or something like that. The Cubs will start their road trip in Baltimore with a 50-40 record (which prorates to a 90-win season, imagine that) in a tie with the Phillies for the top wild card spot, though the North Siders have the season tiebreaker having finished all their games against Philly. In the NL Central, the Cubs are six games back of Milwaukee, just 1.5 games up on the Cardinals, as those two play each other this week and sadly cannot both lose on the same day. With just these six games remaining before the break and being matched up against a couple of not very good (albeit pesky) teams, you’d hope for some good news by the time action is done on Sunday, with less than a month remaining until the trade deadline. Since it’s an off day and we’re bored, let’s take a look at these mysterious Cubs, who are somehow simultaneously doing worse and better than what we expect given the circumstances.

Never Tell Me the Odds!

Well, I’m gonna anyway. Per FanGraphs, the currently second place Cubs are projected to win about 87 games, with only a 10.8% chance to overtake the Brewers for the division crown but an overall 71.1% chance to make the playoffs in some capacity. I think we’ll take that for now, and there are still 72 games remaining to play, so while a six-game deficit is pretty substantial, it isn’t insurmountable at this point in the season. The Cubs just need to take care of their own business and hope the Brewers step on a few rakes along the way.

Prior to the trade deadline, the Cubs will come out of the break against the subpar-at-best Twins and Tigers (it’s amazing that only six teams in the AL are currently at .500 or above), as well as another shot at the Pirates and Cardinals before facing the Yankees at home. They’ll host the Dodgers shortly after the trade deadline passes, so there will be no last minute hug watches unless they happen on Sunday. In theory, the Cubs should have a prosperous July, if their injury-ravaged pitching staff would kindly stop throwing batting practice.

MVPete?

I took a look at the Cubs stats and leaderboards on both B-Ref and FanGraphs, and if Shohei Ohtani didn’t exist, Pete Crow-Armstrong would probably be the leading NL MVP candidate right now. Pete did win the June Player of the Month award in the NL, and that gives us an excuse to show some highlights, where we are actually kind of surprised now when PCA doesn’t do something crazy in a game…

Pete also happens to be the only Cub selected to this year’s All-Star Game, though he won’t start because fan voters are dumb or something (Canada also stuffed the ballot box, and I guess PCA has a villain streak outside of Chicago that dings him). However, the Cubs as a whole still have the best position player WAR by most measures (just behind the Dodgers), and you wouldn’t believe who’s now second behind PCA for the team WAR lead (hint: he bats ninth now). Which allows me to share yet another fun video as the Cubs destroyed the Padres this season…

On the flip side, it’s probably very bad when the pitching WAR leader is hurt by some stupid neck thing that won’t go away, and the best pitcher not on the shelf is either a home-run prone Shota (who’s gotten a bit better at that more recently) or relievers like Ryan Rolison or Jacob Webb. For now the Cubs will just have to outslug their pitchers, I guess.

The M*A*S*H Unit

We did talk about this in the last pod, but it really is some kind of miracle that the Cubs are as good as they currently are, with arms not quite stepping up but at least taking advantage of the elite defense behind them when they’re not giving up batting practice bombs. The roster is full of red indicating all the pitchers who are on the various injured lists (or banished to double A like Luke Little), but I think the good news, if you can call it that, is that a few guys are ramping up to return after the All-Star Break in Jameson Taillon (who might even be ready to start against the Reds before the break?) and Edward Cabrera, though who knows when Ben Brown (who probably could have been selected an All-Star had he not been injured) is finally cleared to pitch again. You can pretty much tell where the Cubs need to add once the hot stove gets lit up.

We’ve got another few weeks of playing who they’ve got to survive, so buckle up!