There have been a number of Cuban defectors since I last checked in with a profile. I hope to get to each of them in time. Despite the Cub front office’s determination to do as little as possible this offseason, I do think there’s a good chance they make a run at one or more of them. Cuban free agents are rare in that many of them are still considerably younger than the average free agent, yet old enough to avoid spending restrictions imposed by the CBA.
Yenier Bello Veloso doesn’t really fit the bill, however. Bello is a catcher who left Cuba in July 2013, and was recently cleared to sign. He first attempted to defect in late 2012, and was caught and suspended. If Enrique Rojas is correct, he actually received permission from Cuba to travel in 2013, and elected not to return. Bello turns 29 in February, and his offensive production in Cuba’s National Series was unspectacular, but he would fill a position of need for the Cubs (who are interested).
Yenier Bello Stats
Bello first played in Cuba’s Serie Nacional in 2003-2004, but had trouble getting onto the field for Sancti Spiritus due to the presence of incumbent Eriel Sanchez. Cuban higher-ups thought he had potential, however, and he was transferred to Camaguey. This type of thing is historically very rare. Most players play for the team in the province of their birth for their entire careers. After Sanchez aged a few years, Bello was transferred back to Sancti Spiritus and received regular playing time through the 2011-2012 season.
| Team | Age | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | R | RBI | SH | SF | HBP | BB | SO | |
| 2004 | SSP | 19 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | SSP | 20 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2006 | SSP | 21 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2007 | Cam | 22 | 215 | 196 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 28 |
| 2008 | Cam | 23 | 271 | 254 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 2009 | SSP | 24 | 353 | 320 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 67 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 27 |
| 2010 | SSP | 25 | 253 | 229 | 58 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 24 |
| 2010* | SSP | 25 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 2011 | SSP | 26 | 360 | 318 | 101 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 52 | 64 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 34 |
| 2011* | SSP | 26 | 24 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2012 | SSP | 27 | 399 | 372 | 102 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 31 |
| 2012* | SSP | 27 | 29 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Totals | 1942 | 1771 | 490 | 67 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 6 | 222 | 309 | 9 | 24 | 44 | 91 | 187 |
| Age | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | BB% | K% | dt AVG | dt OBP | dt SLG | |
| 2004 | 19 | 5 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 20 | 20 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| 2005 | 20 | 6 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0 | 17 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| 2006 | 21 | 7 | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0 | 14 | 0.143 | 0.143 | 0.143 |
| 2007 | 22 | 215 | 0.204 | 0.236 | 0.311 | 0.107 | 3 | 13 | 0.147 | 0.169 | 0.230 |
| 2008 | 23 | 271 | 0.264 | 0.304 | 0.425 | 0.161 | 4 | 13 | 0.183 | 0.201 | 0.294 |
| 2009 | 24 | 353 | 0.300 | 0.346 | 0.550 | 0.250 | 5 | 8 | 0.207 | 0.230 | 0.362 |
| 2010 | 25 | 253 | 0.253 | 0.304 | 0.415 | 0.162 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 0.172 | 0.199 | 0.273 |
| 2010* | 25 | 20 | 0.353 | 0.450 | 0.588 | 0.235 | 15.0 | 5.0 | |||
| 2011 | 26 | 360 | 0.318 | 0.386 | 0.541 | 0.223 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 0.226 | 0.261 | 0.365 |
| 2011* | 26 | 24 | 0.348 | 0.375 | 0.652 | 0.304 | 0.0 | 16.7 | |||
| 2012 | 27 | 399 | 0.274 | 0.312 | 0.414 | 0.140 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 0.201 | 0.230 | 0.312 |
| 2012* | 27 | 29 | 0.360 | 0.448 | 0.680 | 0.320 | 10.3 | 10.3 | |||
| Totals | 1942 | 0.277 | 0.324 | 0.458 | 0.181 | 5 | 10 |
*Playoffs.
Clay Davenport’s translations are indicated by the dt-prefix.
Typically in these profiles, I present a list of players for comparison. Bello, however, is the first catcher I’ve profiled, and is considerably older than previous subjects. I do care about you, however, so I’ve managed to round up some league-wide numbers to use in lieu of comps.
| PA | OPS+ | ISO | BB% | K% | lgISO | lgBB% | lgK% | |
| 2008 | 271 | 79 | 0.161 | 4 | 13 | 0.137 | 10 | 12 |
| 2009 | 353 | 113 | 0.250 | 5 | 8 | 0.145 | 10 | 12 |
| 2010 | 253 | 73 | 0.162 | 5 | 9 | 0.152 | 9 | 12 |
| 2011 | 360 | 122 | 0.223 | 7 | 9 | 0.152 | 10 | 11 |
| 2012 | 399 | 88 | 0.140 | 5 | 8 | 0.125 | 9 | 12 |
| Totals | 1636 | 97 | 0.188 | 5 | 9 | 0.142 | 10 | 12 |
Defense
Yenier Bello’s bat is mediocre. However, his career caught stealing percentage is an astounding 50%. His four most recent seasons (2008-2012) are even better, at 53%. That makes Yadier Molina look like Koyie Hill. Unfortunately, when I first started writing these, one of the oddities I noticed is that caught stealing rates in Cuba tended to be high. I didn’t realize just how high, however, until wrangling the league-wide numbers. From 2007-2012 the average caught stealing rate in the National Series was just south of 48%! I can think of a half-dozen possible explanations for this off the top of my head (and am planning a post on the subject). Though none of them are great, the: “Cuban catchers are simply the worldwide elite at gunning baserunners” hypothesis ranks fairly low on the list. So while I’d expect Bello to be decent at controlling the running game (and am intrigued to watch him play if he makes the majors), I don’t expect he’s the modern Roy Campanella.
The combination of lack of playing time early in his career and his suspension/defection hiatus would seem to indicate that Bello has fewer miles on his legs than one might expect from a 29-year old. On the other hand, there was a reported knee surgery in the summer of 2009.
Major League Prospects
Intrepid international observer Ben Badler is dismissive.
No. Non-prospect. RT @RNewsX I know Y. Bello has a big arm & some pop. How is he behind the dish? Decent backup C prospect?
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) January 25, 2014
In fairness to Bello, probably very few Americans have ever actually seen him play. He was one of the last cuts from the 2009 WBC roster*, and defected prior to the 2013 edition. He did make the 2007 World Port Tournament roster, but played sparingly. He is a youtube ghost, having last played in the National Series two seasons ago. Given the lack of available information on him, it seems likely that interested teams would downplay it to the press. Multiple teams are interested, so there is probably some value there, at least defensively. As a hitter, however, I wouldn’t expect much better than replacement level production.
*This is likely somewhat reflective of his talent, though more than one observer has called it a snub.
Comments
rattier wrote:
How many people could go straight from high school to the NFL? I imagine the number of players each year average to be less than 1.
WaLiQuote Reply
Alderman “Not Gene” Tunney said:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
He knows his neighborhood.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
[img]http://i1022.photobucket.com/albums/af346/mistah_pants/emu.jpg[/img]
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
The number of people who could go from high school to the pros as a viable roster candidate is extremely low. One per year would be on the high side.
Like You CareQuote Reply
rattier wrote:
Thanks.
As a libertarian, I say let the kids do what they want. If they want to declare for the NFL draft at 18, they should be able to. The only thing I’d suggest is really improving the quality of the draft advisory board so the kids have no illusions about their stock.
The fact is that there have only been a dozen or so high school kids that could step into the NFL and play. Ever. As I said, there are maybe 1-2 per draft (tops) that are even roster material. And I know agents and handlers and probably even parents are out there telling these kids whatever they want to hear to boost their paycheck.
The system as it is now is relatively safe. We’ve discussed an NFL minor league here before. It’s a good idea in theory, but there’s no way to make it a viable alternative to college without directly competing with college…and the NCAA ain’t having that.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I can think of, like, 1. Tyron Smith. That’s about it (and he would have been a project – physically, he was already there).
MylesQuote Reply
Maybe a punter or kicker every other year, too.
MylesQuote Reply
For DET:
10 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN – I know it’s not their top need, but this guy is a steal here. He has Orlando Pace-like potential.
45 WR DAVANTE ADAMS FRESNO STATE – I like him more than most. DET would be a perfect situation for him.
76 CB STANLEY JEAN- BAPTISTE NEBRASKA – I don’t think there’s any way he’s here in the real draft. Big, press CB who might be too stiff to be as effective in off coverage.
107 CB KEITH MCGILL UTAH – Ibid.
I think any CB in the NFC North needs to be like the ones I just mocked to DET. Each offense is similar: WCO tendencies mixed with power running. Any CB in that division needs to be able to press and play the run.
I was going to give DET Cal TE Richard Rogers with the next pick, but I didn’t realize they don’t have a 5.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Technically, he was pretty close too. Hell, he was a starting OT in DAL when he was 20.
Clowney was my first thought. He probably would have been a nickel DE right away. He could have started in the NFL as a sophomore.
Adrian Peterson, Herschel Walker…actually, a lot of RBs are NFL roster ready.
Like You CareQuote Reply
That’s really high. Aren’t there really only two explanations? The first, the base runners are just terrible for a number of reasons. Second, catchers just have rocket arms. I’m looking forward to reading your other possibilities.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Power is lower in Cuba right? Maybe the game plan is to run whenever reaching base. So if batters 1-9 are all running, then the slow guys are getting thrown out. I guess that argues for “base runners are terrible” but because coaches send them all.
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Thanks. I think Detroit addressed their biggest need already, but not sure that their selection of Caldwell was the right answer. WR, OL, and secondary seem like biggest needs to me.
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
@ SVB, apparently younger than more than SK:
yeah i just assumed that runners were being sent all the time.
are the # of overall attempts considerably higher than in the MLB, or is it just the CS%?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1936506-2014-nfl-draft-highlighting-the-top-10-defensive-ends
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ BVS, not sure if coming or going:
Their biggest need is a QB coach.
Like You CareQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
I have no idea. That’s GW’s department. 🙂 Although to be fair we should be comparing the numbers to a High A league, right? Isn’t that where the Cuban Serie Nacional compares?
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
This +1000^10000e100000
Stafford seems to be trying to emulate Johnny Manzell. But Johnny isn’t even in the NFL yet…
Who was the last elite NFL QB who’s throwing style was “wing it”? I don’t know NFL history well, but I’m guessing the list of candidates who could combine “wing it” and “elite” is significantly less than 1 (or = Brett Farve).
23rd in passing defense. That could be helped in the draft.
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
@ SVB, apparently younger than more than SK:
my first thought, as well. spoiler alert: this is not the case.
i’m waiting until I can get hold of more complete data (which I hope will be in the next week or so).
GWQuote Reply
I wanted to called GW Gdub, which led me to the startling revelation that GW could stand for Gordon Wittenmeyer
MylesQuote Reply
Ryno disagrees with you.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Myles:
(dying laughing). If I recall correctly, OV GW is in Texas, which makes it more likely that he’s painting pictures of dogs in the additional free time he’s had since 2008.
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
@ Myles:
(laughing). that actually didn’t occur to me until last week or so, when I realized that I’m not so sure I disagree with him insofar as the Cubs’ finances are concerned.
GWQuote Reply
[img]http://www.derekmccrea.50megs.com/images/chihuawa%20dog%20painting%202.jpg[/img]
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Is that a picture of yourself in the bathtub?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ GW:
Nice paint by numbers, GW. I’d make comments about how Dumbo is supposed to be grey, but Harry Chapin taught me not to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shTb6aq2mDY
Music starts at 2:00. Dmick featured on bass in the background.
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
@ BVS, not sure if coming or going:
I guess that’s the downside to having an elite arm. He’s never had to perfect his mechanics to get the zip on his passes he needs.
In the dozen or so DET games I’ve seen, Stafford doesn’t strike me as a guy who makes terrible decisions. Cleaning up his mechanics and footwork would probably solve his issues, imo.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Ryno, how much do you think having Megatron helps that though? It might not look like it was a bad decision because Megatron caught it, but it might have been in triple coverage.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I think he was commenting on my sanity.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Oh, I misunderstood then haha
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
That definitely helps, but Calvin Johnson is rarely “covered.” His catch radius is ridiculous, but give Stafford credit for usually throwing it where Johnson has the best chance to make a play.
Like I said, I can’t say I’ve watched enough Stafford to know this to be true. It just seems like his problem is inconsistent mechanics rather than decision making.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I don’t disagree and having watched Stafford for the past 5 years I too would say his mechanics are to blame but I think his decision making needs to improve as well. That being said, I hope it doesn’t haha
We have a scrimmage in 3 weeks. Looking forward to going up against somebody other than a buddy.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
@ Like You Care:
I think it’s mechanics too. Somewhere there is a blog with the “21 arm slots of Matt Stafford” or something like that. Footwork too.
Of course, the “I don’t need a private QB coach” comment, and similar statements doesn’t help. Even Drew Brees has an offseason QB coach, right? What he needs, is someone to get in his face about it.
BVS, not sure if coming or goingQuote Reply
new shit:
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/masahiro-tanaka-wlad-balentien-and-japans-juiced-ball.html
GWQuote Reply
@ Like You Care
If I recall correctly, back in the 1970s Nebraska tried to get around the NCAA scholarship restrictions by having the state legislature authorize one “county” scholarship to Nebraska. All the counties would then give their best football player their county scholarship, freeing up the NCAA scholarships for other recruits. It was a way to effectively double the number of football players with full rides. However, the NCAA scrapped that ruse. So Nebraska tried to get around the scholarship restrictions by investigating paying the players as state employees. The state budget office ran some of the numbers and found that paying student athletes would bankrupt the state because of the worker’s compensation costs. So that plan was scrapped as well.
I think that analysis holds true today. If student athletes are paid employees, the myriad of benefit costs and comp claims would bankrupt schools. Football programs bring in the most revenue, but most schools still run athletic department deficits. It is viewed more as an alumni-endowment marketing tool. If colleges cannot make a profit with the most popular minor league football program, it is doubtful that the NFL on its own could implement a profitable or break-even minor league system like baseball. The NFL does not want to start 32 four-year vocational training schools for 18 year old athletes.
TheStealthGMQuote Reply