Yearly Facepalm – 10/16/18

In Facepalm by myles469 Comments

  • Chili Davis is gone. It appears that like offensive coordinators for the Bears or Defense Against the Dark Arts professors, nobody can last more than a year in this position. The Cubs fired John Mallee because Chili Davis was an “all-star coordinator,” and then fired him because he led the Cubs from the all-star talent level to the dumpster in half a season. Davis will be among the more quixotic hires in the Theo-Jed era. I never understood getting rid of Mallee and don’t actually buy the “couldn’t pass up Davis” company line. I remain convinced that Mallee was fired for other reasons. Irresponsible of me to speculate why.
  • Anthony Iapoce is back. I think this is the absolute most responsible hire the Cubs could have made and am pleased they did so. He knows the team, the organization, and the philosophy that has been successful in the past. I’m curious if I should read anything into it as far as who is leaving the island and who isn’t (Ian Happ never worked with Iapoce), which means I definitely shouldn’t assume he’s gone but definitely will assume he is. Weeeee!
  • Brandon Hyde is probably gone. Hyde was probably the next Cubs manager, and I assume he figured into the Joe Maddon staying or leaving calculus, but it appears that the Cubs won’t get that opportunity. Hyde has never managed at the major league level, but he’s been groomed to do so for several years. If/when Hyde leaves, seems like Will Venable will take over his responsibilities, though I also wonder if David Ross would be interested.
  • Shiraz Rehman is leaving for the Rangers. I’m not going to pretend I know much about this guy – I’ve heard of him, but that’s about it. Good for him! The tendrils of the Theo Epstein Braintrust extend ever forward.
  • Nico Hoerner is beating the absolute shit out of the AZL. Hoerner, the Cubs 1st round (24th overall) pick in the draft this year, was on fire before he was injured and put on the DL for the season. Good to see that he’s back and (presumably) as good as before. Hoerner is going to be a quick mover through the minors, probably culminating in a 2020 cup of coffee should everything go well with his development.

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  1. dmick89

    Isn’t David Ross interviewing for a managerial opening? I think I’d go after him if Hyde leaves, but it probably means waiting to see if he isn’t hired as a manager.

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  2. Ryno

    berselius:
    Go Packers, boo Niners. I assume Ryno is also rooting for the Packers tonight.

    You assumed correctly. That was exactly the way I wanted that game to go. SF looks good, but still gets the L and a better draft pick (let’s go, Nick Bosa).

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  3. berselius

    Ryno,

    I’m looking forward to the Packers increasing Rodgers’s difficulty level by literally pulling fans out of the stands to play WR at some point this season.

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  4. Perkins

    myles: He’s having a terrible series, only batting .353/.389/.588 with a dinger.

    But he didn’t run out a ground ball one time, and he kicked Villar for standing on the middle of the base, so he’s the worst player every.

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  5. Ryno

    berselius,

    As long as Rodgers can play, GB will move the ball. It makes sense for the team to invest in the defense rather than WRs. It’s a shame, though, that he’ll be underappreciated by at least 90% of people who follow football. I mean, he’s the best QB of this millennium and quite possible of all time. Pretty sure that’s not how he’s viewed by most and it’s a shame.

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  6. Ryno

    Perkins: …he kicked Villar for standing on the middle of the base…

    I’d like to make him the 2019 Cubs infielder/manager simply for kicking Aguilar, who was doing the same thing. Fat-ass blob should keep that sack full of worthless shit he calls a leg where it belongs: on top of a special bed courtesy of the local zoo that can hold a creature of his size and underneath a bowl of butter and beef fat ice cream with extra chicharrones.

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  7. Ryno

    myles,

    Brady gets the nod from most because of the Super Bowls and the stats. Frankly, he has the Super Bowls because of one of the better defensive coaches of our era and the stats because the GM knows how to build an offense around him.

    The reason I lean Rodgers (and Steve Young) is because of more scheme independence. Every QB needs to be the right “system,” but guys like Rodgers and Young could’ve been successful in more situations than Brady.

    If Rodgers had been in Brady’s shoes, he’d have had more success, imo. If Brady had been in Rodgers, he’d have been murdered on the field several years ago.

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  8. Ryno

    Ryno:
    myles,

    If Rodgers had been in Brady’s shoes, he’d have had more success, imo.

    Tom Brady once told an NFL coach, if Aaron Rodgers had Patriots' offensive scheme & institutional knowledge on opposing defenses, "He'd throw for 7,000 yards every year. He's so much more talented than me."

    — Ian O'Connor (@Ian_OConnor) September 10, 2018

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  9. Ryno

    I also think Steve Young would be considered among the greatest (where he belongs) if he and Montana had switched places. Montana didn’t have to face those DAL teams in the early 90s without Bill Walsh like Young did. And I think Young would’ve given SF more Super Bowls in the 80s than Montana did. He definitely would’ve given those NYG teams fits that Montana couldn’t.

    One of the great tragedies in NFL history, BTW, is that Walsh’s 49ers never faced Jimmie Johnson’s Cowboys. Those battles would’ve been the best.

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  10. Perkins

    Ryno,

    I meant Aguilar. I don’t think he kicked Villar, though I guess I wouldn’t care if he kicked a few Brewers players. (dying laughing)

    Might be a bush league play by Machado, but when a 1B stands on the bag, it’s just inviting a collision and injuries.

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  11. dmick89

    Perkins: Might be a bush league play by Machado, but when a 1B stands on the bag, it’s just inviting a collision and injuries.

    I don’t have a problem with the play. I think MLB has gone a little too far in protecting players even if I understand the need to do so.

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  12. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I can see why Brewers fans would be. I’ve seen Cubs fans (even ones here) lose their shit on similar questionable choices by the baserunner. Here, though, it really seems crazy that Machado would have intentionally do that. I suspect some of the anger is due to Machado’s reaction (he didn’t seem overly concerned or try to apologize) and his postgame comments (if it’s dirty, it’s dirty).

    I’ll be honest. I don’t really care too much about base running plays at any other position than home and I hate the current rules. I think catchers needed to be protected more, but I think you could have done that without a rule change. All the umpires had to do was actually make those calls based on what the rules were. They never did and it resulted in the current rules. Maybe the only thing I’d care about other than that is going into a base with spikes up.

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  13. dmick89

    Perkins:
    EnricoPallazzo,

    I’d still prefer Harper because his OBP skills are something else. But I think both of them have a solid chance to make Alvin throw his bologna sandwich in anger.

    Yeah, I’d probably rather have Harper as well, but it’s a lot closer than I thought. Either way the Cubs go, they’re either going to have to go after another outfielder or another infielder. It would probably be easier to just re-sign Murphy and sign Harper, but I don’t want to go into next season with Almora as a starting outfielder.

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  14. BVS

    Re: BCB

    Long ago I was searching something about the Cubs and the Google result sent me to this blog called Another Cubs Blog. Whatever I was looking for, I found it there, plus some entertaining commentary. I had never read BCB. Shortly after I started reading ACB, the site announced it was merging with some other blogs. I thought, “Crap, here’s another site I just started to get into and it is going away.” Instead, it became the immensely discredited blog we all read today.

    However long ago that was, I’ve probably only read 3-4 posts from BCB, and only because they were linked here. The criticism is entertaining enough that I don’t need to click through.

    If I want another opinion, I read BN, despite Brett’s unnatural love of the 6 man rotation.

    Anyway, I guess my point is that this has always been my one-stop cubs blog, and it is also responsible for 100% of the times I’ve visited BCB. Trade-offs, I guess.

    Thanks guys.

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  15. Smokestack Lightning

    BVS:
    BVS,

    Because Brewers believe starts go for 2 innings, perhaps.

    One batter. He pitched to one batter. Apparently, it was all stratergy.

    Anyway, it went great.

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  16. BVS

    I think Machado goes to the Yankees and probably Harper goes to the Dodgers or, more likely, stays with the Nationals.

    So what happens when the Cubs miss the Big 2? AJ Pollock in CF. Probably LaMahieu returns at 2b. Zo continues to float. We’ll need him in OF for the 30 games Pollock misses while injured.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    BVS:
    I think Machado goes to the Yankees and probably Harper goes to the Dodgers or, more likely, stays with the Nationals.

    So what happens when the Cubs miss the Big 2? AJ Pollock in CF. Probably LaMahieu returns at 2b. Zo continues to float. We’ll need him in OF for the 30 games Pollock misses while injured.

    If those first three things happen, I don’t think I will give a shit what Zo will be doing.

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  18. Rizzo the Rat

    dmick89:
    Why did Miley leave early?

    He was a decoy. They used a lefty starter so the Dodgers would put out a right-handed lineup and then replaced him with a righty pitcher as soon as they could.

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  19. Ryno

    Harper missed 42 games in August/September 2017
    after he tripped on a wet first base on a soaked field in a game that never should have been played.

    That’s a freak injury, not “injury prone.”

    Other than that, Harper has played at least 147 games in three of the last four seasons. Sounds like he’s pretty healthy to me.

    There was another year (can’t recall which one now) when he missed substantial time due to a broken bone from a HBP.
    Posted by Al Yellon on Oct 17, 2018 | 5:42 PM

    1. Sounds like I’m on the Machado bandwagon, then.
    2. It took me 9 seconds to casually search for the information Alvin “can’t recall.” It took me five seconds to type the parenthetical. That motherfucker would rather save four seconds than know what he’s talking about.

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  20. Author
    myles

    BVS:
    I think Machado goes to the Yankees and probably Harper goes to the Dodgers or, more likely, stays with the Nationals.

    So what happens when the Cubs miss the Big 2? AJ Pollock in CF. Probably LaMahieu returns at 2b. Zo continues to float. We’ll need him in OF for the 30 games Pollock misses while injured.

    I’d be all over Pollock if I was convinced he could stay healthy for an entire year. Not sure that’ll happen so I want no part of the contract he’ll get.

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  21. Author
    myles

    I wouldn’t hate Adam Jones as a 4th OF depending on who is traded. Machado, Jones, and Jeurys Familia or something would constitute a pretty successful offseason for me.

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  22. andcounting

    Ryno,

    You don’t seem to be giving Al credit for the time he spent running the B-R play index for instances of wet first bases on soaked fields in games that never should have been played.

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  23. Rice in CA

    BVS:
    Wow, if Astros lose a close game, some fan is going to be Bartmanned.

    I don’t think so. The interviews seemed chill and nobody in the stands were doing an in-game crucifixion.

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  24. Ryno

    Most SBNation site admins seem to grasp that the site is a hub for fans to read team-related content. Alvin seems to think BCB is like his diary or something. It’s really odd to me that SBNation puts up with that.

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  25. Ryno

    Had an interesting conversation with an NFL defensive coordinator today.

    He said philosophically you can no longer build a defense to prevent yardage, the focus of your defense has to be to generate turnovers with modern NFL rules.

    — Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) October 17, 2018

    I think this is why you see so many teams in deep zone coverage and mixing pressures.

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  26. andcounting

    Ryno,

    Everyone: You’re a fucking asshole, Al.

    Al (in a more perfect world, but not so perfect as to make him no longer an asshole, just perfect enough to shorten BCB arguments by 2000%): I can’t argue with you, ever.

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  27. el Fucking ma

    BVS:
    Wow, if Astros lose a close game, some fan is going to be Bartmanned.

    Joe West should probably get the blame, from what I’ve seen.

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  28. dmick89

    Ryno: The tagline of the #1 movie at the box office the day you were born, that determines your fate from now on

    That’s unacceptable. The number 1 movies these days are nothing but superhero movies so fuck that. Kids born these days will grow up thinking they can actually save the world, which is ridiculous considering the world sucks.

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  29. JKV

    Ryno: anything since https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2007/5/20/193649/841.

    My favorite clairvoyant

    Carlos Marmol threw another scoreless inning today; that’s not what led to this diary mentioning that Lou might be considering moving Ryan Dempster into the rotation and installing Marmol as closer. That’s a bad idea not only because Dempster has repeatedly failed at starting, but because Marmol doesn’t have the consistency in throwing strikes that you need to be a good closer. Even today, in throwing a pretty good inning, he threw only nine strikes in nineteen pitches. You can see what might be coming if Marmol were the closer — he’s basically a younger, harder-throwing, Hispanic Dempster.

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  30. BVS

    Myles: Holy shit. This is, perhaps, the, worst, piece of, gar,bag,e, e,,v,e,r,,,, p,os,,,t,e,,,d.

    andcounting,
    et al.,

    Ok. So you made me click over the BCB for the 4th or 5th time ever.

    Good thing those scorecards were glossier in aught-seven. Go figure.

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  31. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    BVS:
    Re: BCB

    Long ago I was searching something about the Cubs and the Google result sent me to this blog called Another Cubs Blog. Whatever I was looking for, I found it there, plus some entertaining commentary. I had never read BCB. Shortly after I started reading ACB, the site announced it was merging with some other blogs. I thought, “Crap, here’s another site I just started to get into and it is going away.” Instead, it became the immensely discredited blog we all read today.

    However long ago that was, I’ve probably only read 3-4 posts from BCB, and only because they were linked here. The criticism is entertaining enough that I don’t need to click through.

    If I want another opinion, I read BN, despite Brett’s unnatural love of the 6 man rotation.

    Anyway, I guess my point is that this has always been my one-stop cubs blog, and it is also responsible for 100% of the times I’ve visited BCB. Trade-offs, I guess.

    Thanks guys.

    False. You came here by searching for Pizza Hut MILF porn, just like the rest of us.

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  32. Ryno

    JKV,

    And he called it a diary…

    Ryno:
    Most SBNation site admins seem to grasp that the site is a hub for fans to read team-related content. Alvin seems to think BCB is like his diary or something. It’s really odd to me that SBNation puts up with that.

    So I guess that makes sense.

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  33. andcounting

    Ryno,

    I’m not telling anyone what to do, but if someone would help me understand this, I’d appreciate it. Is it unexpected for Hoerner to play in the AFL because he’s better than that or because he’s not that far along?

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  34. Ryno

    andcounting,

    I wouldn’t say SO well. He’s had a few good games, but he’s still OPSing .562 with 9 Ks against 0 BBs.

    I’d say that’s about what’s expected. He’s probably not seen pitching this advanced before, so his K/BB and power numbers will look bad. But he’s known for his “hit tool,” so he’ll likely keep the BA at a respectable level.

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  35. dmick89

    Perkins,

    The only NL Central team I would ever root for in the postseason is the Cubs. Fuck the rest of them. I never quite understood why so many Cubs fans rooted for the Pirates a few years ago.

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  36. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I kind of get it for the Pirates. After 20 or so straight years of losing records, rooting for them is like rooting for the underdog fat kid to win.

    But it was still pretty satisfying to watch the Cubs slam shut their window of contention.

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  37. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I guess I did root for the 2006 Cardinals once they were in the postseason. My grandpa was in his 90s and his health was failing. He was a huge Cardinals fan and we always had fun giving each other shit so I figured it would be nice if his team won another one in his life.

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  38. dmick89

    BVS,

    Not a bad idea, but I doubt the Cubs give up on Chatwood yet. He’ll probably get about 17 starts at the beginning of the season to prove he doesn’t suck. He’ll end up sucking, but probably not as much as this season.

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  39. BVS

    dmick89,

    Agreed. But if starters are a strength for Cubs, which they would be if they keep Hamels, then they could fill an IF gap that they won’t fill when Machado signs with the Yankees.

    IF something like this happened, I’d guess it would be after most big FAs signed.

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  40. Ryno

    https://predictivefootball.com/late-and-trailing-by-14-points-always-go-for-2-after-a-touchdown/

    Stuff like this is so interesting to me and it makes so much sense. It’ll also take a while for NFL coaches to adopt it because NFL coaches coach scared. Their in-game decisions are based on not losing more than winning. And they’d MUCH rather fail conventionally than unconventionally.

    That’s what made last year’s Eagles so compelling.

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  41. Ryno

    Ryno,

    OAK has a chance to have three of the top 16 picks in the next draft. I wonder if Carr is next…

    Raiders QB Derek Carr reportedly has a "fractured relationship" with teammates, due in part to the perception that he cried after being injured https://t.co/dSvPc50wYe

    — ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 23, 2018

    Four first rounders?

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  42. Ryno

    Since my sobering analysis of Nico Hoerner’s AFL performance so far, the lad has gone 3-7 with a 2B (off Forrest Whitley), a 3B and a HR. He’s also added a walk.

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  43. andcounting

    Ryno,

    I love that. Shouldn’t teams pretty much always go for it on 4th down as well? That book Thinking Fast and Slow says a bit about it, something about a Richard Thaler study. #lazy

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  44. Ryno

    andcounting,

    I know there are some that say you should never punt, but I don’t think they take situation into account. College is one thing, but points are at a premium in the NFL (at least, they used to be).

    For me, punting is like sac bunting in baseball. There are times when it makes sense to sacrifice a down for field position, but it’s way overused.

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  45. berselius

    EnricoPallazzo:
    Damn you have to pay for the poscast drafts now? That’s kinda lame…

    Even if I felt like shelling out to their patreon, it’s useless to me since I listen to pods in the car whatever patreon gate I’d need to pass through would probably be useless.

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  46. Ryno

    When you guys don’t participate, you make me go to BCB where I see stuff like this:

    Joe Maddon is the right manager for the Cubs now, and going forward. Here’s why.
    Analytics are useful, but in the end, baseball is a people business, and Joe’s really, really good at that.

    That’s the headline and subhead. For real.

    Would a different manager than Joe Maddon have been able to create the culture that brought four consecutive 90+ win seasons to the Cubs franchise for the first time in more than 100 years? I’d say no.

    Yeah, the culture did all that. eyeroll.gif

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  47. Ryno

    Mucker,

    I honestly don’t know. I don’t watch many NYG games. I do know he was my top-rated CB in that draft (I rated Jalen Ramsey higher, but not as a pure CB).

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  48. EnricoPallazzo

    berselius: Even if I felt like shelling out to their patreon, it’s useless to me since I listen to pods in the car whatever patreon gate I’d need to pass through would probably be useless.

    All you need to do is pay for patreon, have someone else listen to it and transcribe the episode, and then sit shotgun while you drive and read the transcript to you. Pretty simple, really.

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  49. EnricoPallazzo

    Weather here in boston is kinda nuts right now…shitload of thunder and lightning. Radar suggests it’ll clear at some point, but hypothetically speaking, what would happen if they couldnt play tonight or tomorrow? They’d go for a double-header on the off day? I can’t imagine any other scenario being feasible…

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  50. Ryno

    And now NYG trades Snacks Harrison to DET for a 5.

    I guess the experts are saying the best time to rebuild a roster is in the middle of the season after taking a RB with the No. 2 overall pick instead of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson.

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  51. Mucker

    Ryno,

    It’s crazy that the NYG are taking the title of more irrelevant team from the Redskins in that division. It’s going to be a long rebuild for NYG.

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  52. Ryno

    Mucker,

    That whole division is ridiculous. PHI looked like they might pull away for a while, but they’ve had some back luck this season. I think WAS is hanging around thanks to McCloughan’s influence. But between DAL wasting a rookie QB contract and NYG ignoring their shitty roster…

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  53. Mucker

    Ryno,

    Then maybe it won’t be a long rebuild for NYG. (dying laughing)

    The Cowboys gave up a 1st round pick for a WR and could’ve got a better one for a 5th (Josh Gordon). Maybe they didn’t want another Dez Bryant situation, I don’t know, but that was a serious waste of draft capital.

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  54. Ryno

    Mucker,

    I’m making an effort to realize I overvalue draft picks, but that was too much for current Cooper. I think it’s just fine for 2016 Cooper and that’s what DAL is banking on. They were fooled into thinking Dak was the kind of QB that doesn’t need weapons around him. I guess they realize that now.

    Rebuilds can be quick in the NFL, but you have to get a little lucky. NYG was lucky last year to have a top pick in a draft with multiple QB options. They blew that. They’ll have to hope to get lucky again.

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  55. andcounting

    dmick89,

    One day there will be an organization that focuses on little more than the abilities of fouling off pitches and knowing the strike zone. They’ll get no-hit almost every game but score an average of 11 runs. They’ll scoff at the idiots who say they need to hit.

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  56. andcounting

    Ryno,

    That’s among the dumbest things I’ve ever read. And that’s not to say trading Quintana is the dumbest idea I’ve ever come across, just that Al’s pathetic attempt at a reasoned argument is on a loftier level of dumb than just about any collection of characters ever assembled into intelligible order.

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  57. andcounting

    Ryno,

    Oh yes. I also read the part about his salary being really low, yet wanting to free up that money, even though the Ricketts don’t need the money anyway. And exercise the option on Hamels then tear it up. Like, totally tear it up, y’all.

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  58. JKV

    Remember when the Cubs sucked and AC had to keep requesting that t-shirt companies stop using the facepalm logo without consent? That was fun.

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  59. Ryno

    I can appreciate disagreeing opinion, but don't ever send me another e-mail threatening to burn my house down if I don't change my opinion on Brees vs Aaron Rodgers.

    That's not sane, and I will immediately turn them over to law enforcement.

    — Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) October 26, 2018

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  60. dmick89

    Chicago Cubs
    — Interesting question on MLB.com about whether the Cubs will go for a closer this winter, or assume Brandon Morrow will reclaim the job. The Cubs never liked very long deals for relievers …
    — David Kaplan, a Chicago radio personality, reported the Cubs offered Kris Bryant a $200-million or so deal that Bryant declined …
    — The Cubs will surely pick up the $20-million option on Cole Hamels rather than buy him out for $6 million. – https://fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-baldelli-makes-sense-a

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  61. Ryno

    Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone.,

    With as risk averse as NFL coaches are, I’m surprised no one reminded him that having the ball on the 25 with a timeout (and the two minute warning) is better than the spectrum of outcomes of trying to return a kick from the endzone. Even if he hadn’t fumbled, GB would have been at the 20 and < 2 minutes. I'd expect more from a Stanford man.

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  62. Ryno

    Hypothetical futures bet that Cubs writers, bloggers and Twitter personalities have put long odds on: Jason Heyward being traded this winter. I believe it’s much more likely than you have otherwise read about.

    — Cubs Prospects (@cubprospects) October 29, 2018

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  63. Ryno

    After watching SF lose to ARI yesterday, I’m convinced they’re somehow tanking this season.

    1. There’s no way JimmyG makes THAT much of a difference over Beathard.
    2. They’ve lost a few games under suspect circumstances since the JimmyG injury.

    I’m on board with this plan, I just don’t want to hear some bullshit about how “we’re trying to win every game.”

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  64. Mucker

    Ryno,

    I don’t understand why more teams don’t tank. I’m not saying go out and throw games. But you can theoretically tank a season by playing rookies or 2nd strings that you might think have a future but aren’t quite ready yet. Gives them valuable playing time and when you are ready to compete, you have a solid foundation of a team to build on. Take your lumps early. What’s the difference between 1-15 or 7-9? About 15-20 draft spots. If you aren’t in a position to make the playoffs, lose the games.

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  65. berselius

    Mucker,

    It’s probably a more delicate balance than it seems at face value. If a team is too terrible it could hurt said rookie’s development. For example, I don’t think the current Bills offensive roster is going to do Josh Allen any favors. Guys like David Carr or half a thousand Jags QBs also seem like candidates for guys whose development was not helped by a rebuilding team around them. We could see the same with Barkley with NYG, though maybe it doesn’t matter as much for non-QBs. This is one of the big reasons why the Browns waited so long to take a QB.

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  66. Ryno

    berselius:
    Mucker,

    It’s probably a more delicate balance than it seems at face value.

    There are a lot of different personality types that respond to losing differently, but I do think there’s something to a relatively apathetic (businesslike?) approach to the outcome of games when there’s not a “winning culture” in an organization.

    I get the idea of tanking when there’s a generational talent in the draft, but (a)I’m not sure there is one this year (Bosa, maybe?) (b)I’d want my team to have more pride than to allow any tanking…other than the type Mucker mentioned.

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  67. BVS

    Sounds like BYE had a great day in the NFL yesterday, both

    Here:

    Ryno:
    After watching SF lose to ARI yesterday…

    and proactively with some kick returner in Green Bay.

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  68. BVS

    berselius: Guys like David Carr or half a thousand Jags QBs also seem like candidates for guys whose development was not helped by a rebuilding team around them.

    But their confidence post-career has really been helped with the support groups run by Anthony Young, Mike Maroth, Chris Volstad, and Ruben Quevedo.

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  69. Mucker

    Ryno,

    berselius,

    Yeah I wouldn’t advocate for just trashing a season. And I’d be curious to know if players really believe they are a good football team (Bills? Raiders?) and believe they can compete. If we can see that a team is complete shit, don’t the players? If I was a QB of a young team with a roster of rookies and young players, I’d want to get in-game experience with them. I would absolutely be trying to win, but I would understand that might not happen often and that would be OK if I thought the future was bright. Maybe being a Bears fan for so long has warped my thinking but I know I’ve been pissed they won a game to go 6-10 rather than 5-11 that lowered their draft position. I’m more invested in seeing the Bears be good for 5-8 years instead of 1-2 years.

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  70. Ryno

    Mucker,

    I think it depends on the team. I’m sure SF’s players looked at last season like “We won 6 games and were a play or two away from winning a few more.” I would think a team like BUF is realistic and the players are just trying to play their position as well as possible. I’m sure OAK’s players see the writing on the wall as well.

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  71. Ryno

    If the Cowboys don't act quickly on Lincoln Riley, he could be in Cleveland by January. I'd love to see Riley with Mayfield in the NFL with all the talent on this roster.

    — Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) October 29, 2018

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  72. Ryno

    .@betonline_ag lists #Rams HC Sean McVay as the fav to be #Browns HC. McVay was born in Dayton, Ohio & went to Miami, Ohio

    McVay +200
    Lincoln Riley +225
    Zac Taylor +550
    John DeFilippo +650
    Dan Campbell +750
    Brian Flores +750
    Dave Toub +800
    Jim Harbaugh +1200
    Bill Belichick +2000

    — uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) October 29, 2018

    (dying laughing) Yeah, I’m sure McVay is champing at the bit to get away from sunny SoCal and that ridiculously talented roster to be back in Ohio (with which he is familiar).

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  73. berselius

    Ryno,

    McVay +200 is only the second most ridiculous bet on that list. That Belicheck line would have to move to something like +2,000,000,000 to be close to the actual odds.

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  74. dmick89

    Ryno:

    I wouldn’t be surprised either since I don’t think the Cubs even seriously consider Harper or Machado unless they can get rid of a large chunk of Heyward’s contract.

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  75. andcounting

    Pretty sure the nadir of the sports calendar is the point at which baseball has ended and the potential replacements on the Browns coaching staff becomes the main topic of discussion.

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  76. dmick89

    BVS,

    I’m okay with that because baseball’s format in the playoffs would make it more difficult for those averagi-ish teams to advance. The Red Sox had something like a 60% chance of winning the World Series and the Dodgers are a very good team.

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  77. BVS

    dmick89,

    Yeah. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that one. I’d sooner give byes to higher seeded teams than have them play .500 or worse teams. 10 or 12 teams max in playoffs.

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  78. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    BVS:
    dmick89,

    Yeah. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that one. I’d sooner give byes to higher seeded teams than have them play .500 or worse teams. 10 or 12 teams max in playoffs.

    No byes, 16 teams, every round is best of 9. Games lasting past dusk are suspended.

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  79. dmick89

    When is the deadline for exercising an option? I read it the Cubs declined Hamels option and then re-signed him the Rangers would be able to file grievance. So I don’t think that’s a viable option.

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  80. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I wouldn’t be surprised either since I don’t think the Cubs even seriously consider Harper or Machado unless they can get rid of a large chunk of Heyward’s contract.

    Interesting. What’s this based on? What I’ve read thus far and seen/heard (which is admittedly far from comprehensive, and might have zero worth to begin with), has indicated the Cubs have been gearing up to make a serious run at Machado/Harper, and it won’t require moving unmovable contracts to do so.

    This is not to say I expect the Cubs to sign one of them, as I always try to assume the field, but I have yet to hear anything about the Cubs pursuit of Machado/Harper having a roadblock like moving a Jason Heyward.

    (Although, I hope you’re right, and the Cubs do move Heyward, and then sign Harper.)

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  81. EnricoPallazzo

    Smokestack Lightning,

    if the cubs want a big money signing, they will need to dump salary to avoid going over the top tier of the luxury threshold. i guess there are like two or three tiers. so IF they want to avoid the top tier, they will need to move someone. pretty sure it’s still tbd as to whether or not they want to avoid that top tier though.

    not sure if this is what dm was talking about though.

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  82. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Interesting. What’s this based on?

    More of a hunch than anything, but also combined with the fact that their payroll is high and they’ve had some unusually shitty luck in free agent signings. I think it also makes sense to move Heyward if you’re going to get Harper. Heyward vs Almora/Happ is probably about even at this point. I don’t think the Cubs want to or should move Kyle Schwarber. It just feels like the Cubs need to move an outfielder and the obvious pick for that is Heyward due to his contract. Even if you could get out of half of the remaining deal you’re better off in my opinion and I think some team will take a chance on him at the reduced rate they’ll get him for.

    I’m not saying it’s a situation in which the Cubs have to move Heyward before they bid on Harper or even sign him, but I think it’s one that they could sign him and then trade Heyward. I don’t think they start the season with both of them.

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  83. Ryno

    Frank
    2:10 Any chance the Cubs try to trade for Whit Merrifield and play Baez at SS fule time?

    Keith Law
    2:11 If I’m a Cubs fan that is the last thing I want them to do (the trade part – I’m good with putting Baez at SS full time). Pick up Hamels’ option, re-sign Chavez, and go hard for Machado or Harper.

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  84. BVS

    dmick89,

    Wouldn’t it then seem like a plausible option would be to trade Zobrist? He has more value than Heyward, would probably be about the same salary savings, could net something useful, and clear up some OF logjam with Happ/Bote/laStella covering 2b. He’s gone after 2019, and at his age he may not reproduce 2018 anyway…though I wouldn’t bet against it.

    Of course, you give up leadership and trade one on your best hitters from 2018. Does he have a no trade clause?

    Not saying I’d do this…but if salary is an issue, you have to look at Zo, I think.

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  85. dmick89

    BVS,

    Zobrist is still a really good player and he’s not making all that much money. Even if they saved a third of what Heyward has left they’d be in a much better position moving forward. I think they could save half, but they may have to wait out free agency to find out.

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  86. BVS

    dmick89,

    Zo 2019 Salary $12M + $0.5M portion of original signing bonus
    JHey $20M + $2.5M.

    If $$ is the only issue, and you can only save 1/3 of Heyward’s salary, then trading 100% of Zo’s salary saves more. Heyward has partial no trade clause. Zobrist can be traded anywhere.

    Offered fwiw only. I’d rather trade Heyward too. But no one would take him w/o Cubs paying $15M, so why bother? For $7.5M you get a good defensive OF with nearly avg production at the plate last year.

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  87. Berselius is too lazy to login on his phone.

    Ryno,

    Only 9.5 more years until that Gruden contract runs out in OAK

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  88. Ryno

    David Bote is trash and a quad A player. something needs to be done differently
    by hick132 on Nov 1, 2018 | 9:25 PM reply

    I presume you have evidence to back up this claim.
    But it’s all right now, I learned my lesson well. You see, you can’t please everyone, so you got to please yourself — Rick Nelson, “Garden Party”
    by Al Yellon on Nov 2, 2018 | 6:46 AM up reply

    Other than Bote’s stats (which are public)?

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  89. Myles

    Ryno: Other than Bote’s stats (which are public)?

    I would not say that Bote’s stats indicated that he’s a quad-A player. He’s probably a bench guy, but a cost-controlled bench bat with some pop is still fairly valuable.

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  90. dmick89

    Other teams’ read on the Cubs’ situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season. The days of having a cheap core of young players are over for the front office. — MLBTR (tweet from Buster Olney)

    This offseason is going to suck.

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  91. dmick89

    Myles:
    Ryno,

    Smyly was scheduled to make $7 million, so maybe they really need all the cash flexibility they can get? IDK.

    It seems odd that they’d be that worried about next year’s payroll at this point, but things aren’t looking good.

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  92. Perkins

    Myles:
    dmick89,

    There have definitely been rumblings among the Cubs cognoscenti that the days of unlimited payroll are over. Ruh roh.

    Where is all this coming from? It seems odd for a club in the middle of its competitive window and about to sign a (presumably) massive TV deal (likely for its own network) would suddenly pinch pennies.

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  93. dmick89

    Myles,

    So all those “Cubs are readying a large offer for Harper” that I read this summer should have said the Cubs were readying an offer for a mid-level starter (if they can trade away a few contracts).

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  94. Myles

    Perkins,

    I have no idea why, but it’s at least what Buster Olney says. Who knows, he could obviously be wrong.

    “Other teams’ read on the Cubs’ situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season. The days of having a cheap core of young players are over for the front office.”

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  95. Perkins

    If they’re that worried about payroll, I wonder if they could offload Chatwood for literally nothing. There has to be a team out there willing to roll those dice.

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  96. EnricoPallazzo

    in the absence of the cubs doing any blockbuster deals, i may just spend this off-season fondly recalling my favorite trade in history aka the time that dan cortese traded bobby bonilla for salt & pepa in the 5th (?) inning of the mtv rock n’ jock softball classic in like 1996.

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  97. JKV

    dmick89:
    Perkins,

    If Thoyer signed Chatwood knowing this crunch was likely they should be fired.

    I think you’re overreacting a little bit. It was a tweet from Buster Olney, who heard from other teams that they won’t have much payroll flexibility.

    a) You really think Theo lets other GMs know about the Cubs financial might (or lacktherof)
    b) If Theo did do this highly uncharacteristic thing, you don’t think there’s a chance he’s doing this purposefully to make sure the top FA prizes don’t have their prices continue to be driven up?

    I mean, haven’t we already seen this last offseason with Yu and 3 years ago with Heyward?

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  98. dmick89

    JKV: I think you’re overreacting a little bit.

    No. I said “if” they signed Chatwood knowing that and I stand by what I said. If they signed a terrible pitcher like Chatwood for way too much money when they don’t have money, of course they deserve to be fired. That should go without saying.

    I went into this offseason thinking the Cubs weren’t going to go after Harper unless they figured out a way to move Heyward, so this isn’t all that surprising to me. That being said, I’ve just got a hunch about it and there’s a lot I don’t know. What does worry me though is that they had to clear space just to add Hamels.

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  99. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Conversely though, I doubt they’d retain Hamels if there’s that much of a budget crunch.

    I think we can expect Russell’s salary off the books as well. My assumption right now is that they’ll go after Harper or Machado, and shedding salary is more about reducing the amount over the luxury cap that they’ll be taxed on.

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  100. andcounting

    I want theCubs to sign Machado and/or Harper, so it’s highly unlikely they don’t sign at least one of them.

    I’m just going to take the Violet Beauregard approach.

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  101. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Perkins,

    If Thoyer signed Chatwood knowing this crunch was likely they should be fired.

    I’d expand that to include Darvish too.

    You don’t give yet another 30+ yr old SP (and this one with an extensive injury history) all of the dollars when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are a year away.

    Especially in this day and age when you don’t even really need great starting pitching to be a force.

    Here’s hoping Perkins is right and this about avoiding the top tier if possible. If the Cubs threw all their money at Chatwood and Darvish only to cry poor when Harper and Machado come around, then Theo checked out a long time ago.

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  102. BVS

    Perkins,

    Well, since KB’s wife has already told the FO what Harper’s wife says he will sign for, i assume Smyly and Russell’s salaries are just providing the cushion needed for the mid-season pick up of a middle infielder.

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  103. andcounting

    I’ll just throw this out there: if you’re negotiating with Scott Boras, you don’t exactly try to send a plethora of signals that you’ve got an infinite supply of money.

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  104. BVS

    andcounting,
    Agreed. And recent reporting strongly contradicts reports from all season about going after Harper. Except Hamels, what has changed? Plus Hamels less Smyly less Russell is probably only +10M AAV.

    There is a lot of $ coming off next year too. And maybe they can package Caratini and Kintzler for a veteran back up catcher to save another $4M on the margin. Or, in dreamland, they can package Caratini, Maples, and Chatwood for something marginally useful.

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  105. dmick89

    I think the Cubs should go after Robinson Chirinos to be their backup catcher. He’s a free agent after the Rangers declined his $4.5 million option. A left handed bat would be ideal, but Chirinos is also someone who could step in for Contreras if he got hurt and missed some time. My guess is they’ll just stick with Caratini since he’s cheap.

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  106. Perkins

    I wonder if last offseason’s horribly slow pace and lower payouts, rather than holding powder for Machado and Harper, was actually a long game for the owners to depress the amount those two will get.

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  107. Smokestack Lightning

    andcounting:
    I’ll just throw this out there: if you’re negotiating with Scott Boras, you don’t exactly try to send a plethora of signals that you’ve got an infinite supply of money.

    Point taken, but if the reporting prior to this last week had Harper to the Cubs all but inevitable, this past week has seen everything swing way over to the other extreme, and that’s an odd correction if the Cubs have every intention of pursuing him. If this is all about wanting to slow Boras’ roll a bit, there are plenty of other things to say that should get that impression across that don’t require lying about being broke. When I go to haggle for a specific new car, I don’t open negotiations by telling the salesman I don’t have any money to afford it. I only say that shit if I ain’t lying.

    If this unfortunate turn in the rumor mill is true, then my best guess is Theo got a very unwelcome surprise from ownership the past couple of weeks. Or maybe he already knows the sort of contract Harper is going to get is going to go so far beyond what makes sense for any team regardless of payroll that it would be foolish to get involved.

    Or maybe this is just horseshit speculation that the media is running with in lieu of anything concrete coming out of Cubs HQ at the moment.

    I guess what I’m really trying to say is: maybe.

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  108. dmick89

    Since Thoyer took over there really hasn’t been that much information that has leaked. They’ve run a tight lipped department and I don’t expect this offseason to be any different. The Olney tweet wasn’t so much about having inside information as it was about what other teams were reading about the Cubs offseason plans. In years past we’ve known the Cubs were going after Lester. We knew they were going after Heyward. We knew they were going after Zobrist. We knew they wanted Darvish. Up until this past week we were pretty sure the Cubs really wanted Harper (or Machado). I think what SL said is probably right. Either it’s bullshit or ownership told the front office after the season that there wasn’t much money. I have a hard time believing that Theo or Jed would be so aggressive in targeting someone like Chatwood if they had any idea that there wasn’t much money after last year. Or maybe they were aggressive because they knew and it didn’t matter how much they spent last year.

    I don’t know, but I don’t think we can easily dismiss this either. It would be nice if there was some reporter willing to debunk what Olney wrote, but to my knowledge that hasn’t happened.

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  109. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    Agreed. Not much has gotten out of Cubs HQ that they didn’t want out there.

    Which is why I’m trying to be hopeful it’s all mistaken speculation and not something the Cubs have put out there in order to get in front of the disappointment early.

    Otoh, maybe not signing Harper won’t be the worst thing in the world if MLBTR’s projection of a 14 year contract turns out to be accurate.

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  110. andcounting

    Smokestack Lightning,

    When I go to haggle for a specific new car, I don’t open negotiations by telling the salesman I don’t have any money to afford it. I only say that shit if I ain’t lying.

    It’s funny, that’s exactly how I open negotiations. Obviously not that I have no money whatsoever, but I make it clear their options are 1) get nothing from me, or 2) give me a great deal.

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  111. dmick89

    When I buy a car I do all my research at home and then I go in with a final offer. It’s a price that I can live with and I can live with them telling me to fuck off too. I think this is more like the strategy this front office has taken. They made a huge offer to Yu Darvish last offseason and then waited a couple months for him to figure it out. I think the Cubs went in with a final offer. Maybe they were willing to talk about opt-outs and no trade clauses, but that’s probably about it. There’s not really a point getting into a bidding war for free agents. You can end up bidding against yourself like the Rangers did with A-Rod many years ago.

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  112. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Otoh, maybe not signing Harper won’t be the worst thing in the world if MLBTR’s projection of a 14 year contract turns out to be accurate.

    I have a difficult time believing Harper is going to get a contract that long. As good as he is, he’s been rather inconsistent in his career and that’s going to come up in discussions. I’m sure a lot of teams will spot things they think they can fix, but it’s still a matter of record. The standard these days seems to be an opt-out after two or three years and I expect that will be the case with Harper. It’s probably safe to bet that he’ll be a free agent again by the time he’s 30. My guess is that he’ll be a free agent at the age of 29. The only way that contract is going 14 years is if there are some club options later in the deal (at least after the 10th season).

    My guess is he’ll get a 10-year deal for $300 million. There will be an opt-out after the third and fifth year and incentives in the later years of the deal based on games played and where he finishes in the MVP voting. If I’m the Cubs, I come at Harper with something like $100 million over those first three seasons before the first opt-out. Then I’d pay him $28.6 million per season over the final seven years of the contract with incentives that could take the final five years up to a total of $32.5 million each season.

    I’d give him ten days to take it or leave it. Then I’d move on to Machado. I’m not sure what kind of deal I’d offer, but it would be less than what I’d be willing to pay Harper.

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  113. Smokestack Lightning

    andcounting,

    Well, I mean, if we’re going to be 100% honest here about car shopping, when I go to buy a car, I hang out by the free donuts and let the wife do all the talking. If she says we’re signing sign, I sign. If she says we’re leaving, I go with her.

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  114. dmick89

    GBtS,

    Did they announce those today? He played a lot of SS and 2B so I didn’t figure he’d get one. I also didn’t care. I didn’t even know they were announced. Who won the MVP awards?

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  115. dmick89

    JKV,

    That was fun. Steele just came back from TJS. I think he came back in time to make a few appearances in A or AA ball. I think he’s definitely someone to watch for next year. We could see him at the big league level if he stays healthy.

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  116. Ryno

    Edwin Diaz is an interesting Mariner who could be dealt. He won Rivera award but if team rebuilds a great closer is not as essential. FA market is strong in pen already: Kimbrel, Britton, Ottavino, Robertson, Kelly, Miller, Allen, Familia, Brach, Herrera, Holland, Romo, Norris

    — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 6, 2018

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  117. dmick89

    “It’s time to produce or else there’s a chance for significant change for the group,” — Theo

    This is a strange thing to say for a team that has won 60% if its games over the last four seasons. There’s clearly some friction between Joe and the front office and maybe some of the players.

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  118. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    It is strange, but then this has been a strange team for the last two of those four years. They managed all those wins in ’17 and ’18, but both of those teams were DOA once the playoffs started (I still don’t know how the Natinals managed to screw that series up; the Cubs were practically sleepwalking through most of it).

    Maybe we just expect too much, but they’ve won gobs and gobs of games, two division titles (would be three except for the dumb way MLB handles tiebreakers), and a World Series, and yet it’s hard to shake the feeling that they could’ve done a lot more so far. I don’t know why that is, because they’ve been mostly great—these are the best days we’ll probably ever know as Cubs fans—but it’s been kinda meh for a while now.

    I blame weak-ass groundballs.

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  119. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Wasn’t there a mistake by an umpire that led to the Nationals losing that series? I thought it was the right call, but MLB said it wasn’t.

    Both 2017 and 2018 have started slowly and I think that has affected how well we thought they played.

    FWIW, I’m perfectly fine with the Cubs not extending Joe. He’d probably be due about $7-8 million per year and the Cubs could instead sign a first year manager and pay him next to nothing. I’d prefer that to be honest. What about Doug Glanville?

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  120. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: Wasn’t there a mistake by an umpire that led to the Nationals losing that series? I thought it was the right call, but MLB said it wasn’t.

    I honestly don’t remember and I refuse to look it up. What I do remember was both teams didn’t look very good the entire series, and then game 5 was cray.

    FWIW, I’m fine with Joe moving on after this year too. There’s probably something to making changes at all levels, even Theo’s, after enough years go by.

    Also in the FWIW category, Theo said there are no artificial limits on spending this offseason, whatever that means.

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  121. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Theo said there are no artificial limits on spending this offseason, whatever that means.

    Hopefully that’s true. Theo has generally been honest with the media so I suppose there’s no reason for me to doubt it.

    I’m just ready for this offseason to get started and see some action in the free agent market. We should get an idea early on how active the Cubs are going to be. We knew from the start they were interested in Darvish (and the other top free agents they’ve signed in recent years). We’ll probably know by within two weeks whether the Cubs are serious about Harper or Machado.

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  122. dmick89

    Well, this kind of sucks.

    Joel Sherman
    @Joelsherman1
    #Cubs unlikely to add significant $ this offseason. Best chance for substantial change would be if they move a core piece such as Schwarber to address other needs.
    3:53 PM · Nov 5, 2018

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  123. GBTS

    dmick89:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    Wasn’t there a mistake by an umpire that led to the Nationals losing that series? I thought it was the right call, but MLB said it wasn’t.

    MLB said the day after that Javy should have been called out for tipping Wieters’ mask on the passed ball strike 3. Though then Wieters threw the ball into RF like an idiot. And the only reason Javy was batting in the first place was because Max Scherzer IBB’d Jason Heyward, i.e., the worst playoff hitter in the history of baseball. I certainly didn’t lose sleep over that non-call (dying laughing)

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  124. dmick89

    GBTS,

    I barely remember the play, but do recall thinking the umpire got it right to begin with. I refuse to change my opinion on that even though I have trouble remembering the play. (dying laughing)

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  125. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    So it’s starting to look as though the Cubs don’t have much financial flexibility.

    I dunno. I tend to believe Theo over Joel Sherman. Granted, Theo’s comments don’t really say anything definitive one way or the other about whether they intend to pursue Machado or Harper, but if we are to take him at his word, then lack of funds don’t sound like an issue. If it were the problem, I think Theo would just come out and say it. There are plenty of ways to spin “we ain’t got no cash” without basically lying, which is what Theo’s doing if he’s saying “no artificial limits” when the truth is the Cubs are tapped.

    The question I have is whether Theo and co. are looking first to improve in ways that don’t require 10+ years and a 350MM commitment. If we get to the end of the offseason with a clearly improved team, I’ll be fine with the Cubs not landing Harper. Harper/Machado just represent the simplest path to getting better that I can see right now, but that can change fast.

    What I don’t want is to see a bunch of peripheral, upside-y, elite-spin-rate type BS moves, followed by Theo saying “Getting a healthy Kris Bryant back is just like adding a superstar!”

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  126. uncle dave

    Smokestack Lightning,

    I feel like they didn’t do much at all at the deadline this year, and we were told that we needed to eat sawdust to afford steak during the offseason. And here we are, with the media basically reporting that all we’re going to get out of the whole mess is Hamels’ option and a tender for Addison Russell.

    So, yeah, it definitely feels kind of meh, and for good reason.

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  127. dmick89

    uncle dave,

    I feel confident that Russell will eventually be traded this offseason. I really think it says a lot that the Cubs had to clear some salary before they retained Hamels. That felt like the kind of stupid thing the Cubs had to do under Tribune ownership.

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  128. andcounting

    dmick89,

    Is there any evidence other than timing that the Cubs dealing Smyly had anything to do with picking up Hamels’ extension, or is it possible they just didn’t think he was worth the money based on evaluating his current rehab trajectory?

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  129. Ryno

    andcounting,

    The timing, money and teams involved suggest that the first part is more than just coincidence, imo. I think we’ll see about the second part once the PTBNLs are named.

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  130. dmick89

    andcounting,

    A journalist or two reported that before the Cubs could exercise his option they had to clear a bit from the payroll. That’s kind of where all of this began. It’s a very bizarre thing to have to do in the offseason unless ownership has placed significant spending limits on the team.

    Is it accurate? I don’t know yet, but there has been several reporters now who have run with the same information. That could still be nothing, but I don’t think the Cubs gain anything by pretending to be penniless. It was after that first report about having to clear payroll that Olney wrote about how other teams believe the Cubs have nothing to spend this offseason. So there is some evidence, but it’s not conclusive. I think we’ll know for sure within the next 7 to 10 days. If we don’t hear the Cubs are going after Harper or Machado then it’s safe to assume that ownership has placed a limit on what the payroll can be next season in my opinion.

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  131. Smokestack Lightning

    According to Jesse Rogers:

    Jim Hickey —————-> buh-bye

    Shaping up to be quite the lame duck year for Maddon. Maybe just fire him too right now and get it over with.

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  132. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    Although I hate siding with the Cubs dipshit beat reporters, I’ve pretty much written off Harper/Machado at this point. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily do those walkbacks and mea culpas when the time comes.

    If the reports hadn’t come out the night before that the Cubs needed to move salary before picking up Hamels’ option, and then the Cubs dealt Smyly the very next day, I’d be more inclined to try for optimism. I’ve tried to take Theo’s comments about no artificial limits on payroll as hopefully as possible, but I haven’t been able to maintain it.

    That said, it kinda rankles that the Cubs would pick up Hamels’ option if they’re having payroll issues. He’s not a sure thing at this point in his career, and there are plenty of ways the Cubs could find more pitching without the large hit to available free agent dollars.

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  133. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Shaping up to be quite the lame duck year for Maddon. Maybe just fire him too right now and get it over with.

    I kind of agree with this, but it would have been much smarter to do this as soon as the season ended so you could have had a better pick of who was available.

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  134. andcounting

    Ryno,

    dmick89,

    I hadn’t thought about the Rangers’ point of view in this. They had millions of reasons to motivate the Cubs to pick up Hamels’ option. So it might not have been so much about the Cubs needing to deal Smyly to clear payroll and more of the Cubs saying, what will you give us to avoid the buyout? I think beat reporters just printed the same thing that came to everyone’s mind: obviously the Cubs needed to free up money. But it does make me think the Cubs are asking more from the Rangers than I originally thought.

    One thing I’m sure the Ricketts know is how much the World Series win was worth to them in purely fiscal terms. And I’m sure they have a number in mind about what the next World Series will be worth as well. (I picture the kids essentially asking their dad for approval on how much they can spend and needing numbers to convince him expensive baseball decisions are worth the investment). I don’t think Theo or his small-potatoes decisions like Hamels one-year option will broadcast what he’s really allowed to spend on free agents. The only thing that will tell us anything meaningful is what they offer Harper and/or Machado.

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  135. andcounting

    dmick89,

    Yeah, that’s a really bad look and a very bad omen for Joe. Did he have a say at all in the hiring and firing? If yes, he looks like an idiot. If no, he looks really nonessential.

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  136. dmick89

    andcounting,

    I’m guessing he didn’t have much of a say. Several reports have made it sound as though there’s a lot of tension between Joe and Theo and considering Joe is a good friend to Jim Hickey I doubt Theo wanted his input. The curious thing is why they waited so long.

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  137. andcounting

    dmick89:
    andcounting,

    The curious thing is why they waited so long.

    My money would be on Hickey having a problem with Joe (and, presumably Hickey himself) formally not being offered an extension in the offseason.

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  138. dmick89

    andcounting,

    (dying laughing) I have no idea what happens with the Mueller investigation, but I’ve been saying it all along that he should be prepared to dump all the info he has online if he’s fired. Yeah, it’s easy for me to say because I’m not the one who would be arrested, but the public has a right to know and it is his job to make sure we that get that information. Other people have risked arrest to do the same thing so it’s something he should have been prepared to do from day one.

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  139. dmick89

    andcounting,

    From what I’ve read over the years, Joe and Jim are really good friends. I can see why Theo would want to make changes to the coaching staff, but it looks pretty bad when you did the same thing a year ago. At what point does Joe take the fall instead of the coaching staff beneath him?

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  140. andcounting

    dmick89,

    The second the clubhouse gets discontent and grumbly, or when there’s a general question of effort, Joe will be gone. But as long as the guys are relatively having fun, staying happy and motivated, they’ll blame execution on the coaches.

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  141. dmick89

    I keep reading from people who seem convinced that Mueller has banked some indictments in case something like this happened, but I don’t think government employees are all that competent. It’s also why I have little doubt the Democrats in the House will give in and work with Republicans to get stupid shit done that nobody wants. Take a page out of the Republicans playbook. Obstruct at every corner and then blame it on the Republicans. Run nasty attack ads in two years and burn that party to the fucking ground.

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  142. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: That said, it kinda rankles that the Cubs would pick up Hamels’ option if they’re having payroll issues. He’s not a sure thing at this point in his career, and there are plenty of ways the Cubs could find more pitching without the large hit to available free agent dollars.

    I think you mentioned it a few days ago, but great starting pitching isn’t even something that you necessarily need anymore to be a great team considering how specialized the bullpen has become. The Cubs may have been better off picking up a couple relievers for what they’re paying Hamels.

    FWIW, I still like the Cubs taking the option on Hamels. No, he’s not what he once was, but he still looks like an above average starter to me and in the Cubs rotation that may be good enough to be the best starter on the team. He’s also stayed healthy for the most part in his career and the Cubs have no idea what they’ll get from Darvish so I like the contract.

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  143. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I think their best bet is to run infomercials on Fox News introducing hyper racist personalities who gradually start adopting slightly less racist views. As long as Republicans think they’re being attacked and their white privilege is at stake they’ll keep voting for the racist assholes. It’s going take massive deceit to get the Christians to vote for someone remotely good or honest. (dying laughing)

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  144. Smokestack Lightning

    andcounting:
    Ryno,

    dmick89,

    I hadn’t thought about the Rangers’ point of view in this. They had millions of reasons to motivate the Cubs to pick up Hamels’ option. So it might not have been so much about the Cubs needing to deal Smyly to clear payroll and more of the Cubs saying, what will you give us to avoid the buyout? I think beat reporters just printed the same thing that came to everyone’s mind: obviously the Cubs needed to free up money. But it does make me think the Cubs are asking more from the Rangers than I originally thought.

    One thing I’m sure the Ricketts know is how much the World Series win was worth to them in purely fiscal terms. And I’m sure they have a number in mind about what the next World Series will be worth as well. (I picture the kids essentially asking their dad for approval on how much they can spend and needing numbers to convince him expensive baseball decisions are worth the investment). I don’t think Theo or his small-potatoes decisions like Hamels one-year option will broadcast what he’s really allowed to spend on free agents. The only thing that will tell us anything meaningful is what they offer Harper and/or Machado.

    The Rangers’ motivation was something I briefly thought about when the Smyly trade went down then promptly forgot amidst all the shrieking reports about CUBES HAVE ZERO MUNNYS!!!!!!

    It’s a good point. And maybe it’s as simple as the Cubs were thinking of not exercising the option and re-signing Hamels afterwards, with the Rangers preference being to get a little something for the buyout they were set to pay, rather than just lighting the money on fire. Cubs didn’t like what they were seeing out of Smyly, so they save a little bit, the Rangers get a little bit. Everybody’s happy.

    Cubs weren’t going to re-sign Hamels at an AAV less than 15MM per anyway, so it makes sense to do this deal, especially if they weren’t planning on using Smyly in any meaningful capacity anyway.

    I like comments that give me hope. Your comment did that. Thank you.

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  145. BVS

    dmick89,

    andcounting,

    Somewhere I saw and editorial that suggested the Dems in the house could actually attempt to do things and either get Trump to go along and expose the cretins in the Senate, or expose both of them. Such as: National Minimum wage increase, DACA, fix Voting Rights Act, fix issues with Obamacare marketplaces, enact equal pay and violence against women acts, propose some sensible gun regulations like closing gun show loophole, increasing background checks and wait periods, and regulating assault rifles, shift tax burdens back to rich, etc. (I added a few.) You know, stuff like governing for a change. Wonder if Pelosi could pull that off. Steny Hoyer cannot.

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  146. Smokestack Lightning

    Rejoice, patient motherfuckers! A baseball sports transaction hath occurred!

    Mike Zunino ——————> Rays

    Mariners <———————- Mallex Smith

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  147. dmick89

    BVS: Somewhere I saw and editorial that suggested the Dems in the house could actually attempt to do things and either get Trump to go along and expose the cretins in the Senate, or expose both of them.

    I doubt that’s what would happen. They’d spin it in 2020 with a bunch of lies and I suspect it would work. If the Democrats in the house are going to do anything they may as well go all in on popular progressive ideas like Medicare For All, free college tuition, prison reform, marijuana legalization and other things like that that have majority support. None will pass, but if the GOP is going to spread lies in 2020 about what you tried to pass then you can at least try to pass some things well to the left of the average Democratic congressman.

    The other thing is they need to be ready to spread their own lies about the GOP because fuck this playing nice bullshit. You can’t expect to win elections on a regular basis if you’re tying one arm behind your back. If the Democrats aren’t going to force Donald Trump and the GOP to play defense in 2020 they’re going to lose. Just make wild shit up. Leak story after story. Doctor photos and videos.

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  148. BVS

    dmick89: Medicare For All, free college tuition, prison reform, marijuana legalization

    Those would be excellent additions to the list.

    Except free college tuition–what does that mean? I’m at a university and we already see enough students who are not prepared to be in college and some that just aren’t capable of being in college at all. If K-12 was doing it’s job, then I might have a different view. But geez its prety aweful how theirs so many kids who can’t wright a good enough sennence nowadays.

    Also, I can’t figure out how you have free tuition and then have enough faculty to teach the many more classes that would be needed to meet demand. If you’ve seen a good study on that, send it on. My objection is mainly logistical (except for prep argument above), which is not really a great foundation for an objection.

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  149. dmick89

    BVS: My objection is mainly logistical (except for prep argument above), which is not really a great foundation for an objection.

    I’m pretty sure I read that this year’s increase to the defense department budget was enough to cover this year’s tuition costs and then some. Obviously some cuts are going to have to be made to something and defense is the obvious one in my opinion. We could cut the defense budget in half and still have the world’s largest defense budget. Increase taxes for the wealthy and that, combined with defense cuts and we can cover just about every basic service that every single person should have access to.

    How many more college students do you think there would be if there was free tuition? There would be an increase, but I don’t think it would increase by as much as a lot of people think.

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  150. Ryno

    dmick89: Democrats in the house are going to do…marijuana…and other things like that…then you can…fuck…on a regular basis if you’re tying one arm behind your back.

    wild shit

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  151. andcounting

    dmick89,

    Yeah, undergraduate education funding and secondary education standards are distinct issues, both of which could be addressed with funding and reform. If anything, the high cost of tuition and the profit to be made from student debt hamstrings any incentives to better prepare students for college. Lenders make a ton of money and universities prolong their existence regardless of how ready incoming students are or how employable graduates are. Parents and students bear the financial responsibility but they are extremely poor/biased judges of scholastic aptitude. If the government/educators/lenders /taxpayers were footing the bill and undergraduate and secondary systems worked a little bit better together, the effectiveness might change a bit.

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  152. BVS

    andcounting,

    Heh heh. Could be a vicious positive feedback.

    dmick89: How many more college students do you think there would be if there was free tuition? There would be an increase, but I don’t think it would increase by as much as a lot of people think.

    That’s the million dollar question. It depends quite a bit on what “free tuition” or “free college” means. If you keep admission standards exactly as they are, then I suspect you will increase college enrollment by about 20%. That’s just spitballing though. I think that includes two types of students. 1. Kids that are easily prepared enough to make it in college, but really can’t afford it. We should definitely be doing more for those kids. 2. Kids that are marginally prepared, but just over the line. This latter set of kids might not be going to college now because their parents can’t/won’t pay until they “get serious” and have some direction, or because they aren’t ambitious enough to figure out how to get in with loans, or know they aren’t serious about school but at least recognize that starting adult life with tons of loans is a bad deal. Free tuition then makes an easy avenue for the marginal/unmotivated to get into college. The majority of those kids drag down the system. They are the 80-82 playoff teams in the 16 team system. 🙂

    Admission standards would really influence how many more students would go to college. When I was at Ohio State, it seemed like the policy was “fairly easy to get in, but hard to stay.” So you’d flunk out if you didn’t perform, but OSU was going to give as many kids a shot as possible. Clemson is hard to get into but it takes awhile to flunk out, from what I can tell.

    But, some proponents of “free tuition” really seem to be arguing that everyone should go to college for free. That argument goes like this: to make a good living/succeed/etc. a high school education is not good enough anymore, so college is a fundamental right that everyone (meaning Everyone) should be able to attend for free just like K-12. In that case, I guess 75-80% of all kids would expect to go to college. I think we’d be far better to invest that “free tuition for all” into headstart, K-12 teacher salaries, after school programs, K-12 infrastructure, vo-tech, youth mental health programs, etc.

    I’m not the only academic here in the little OV group though, so maybe some of the others can chip in and correct me. Peer review…

    If this comes at the expense of a few less Ospreys and investment in F—g Saudi Arabia, sign me up.

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  153. BVS

    andcounting,

    This. The less money lenders make on college kids, the better. I think all college should be non-profit, including the loan/payment part. I also think all health care should be non-profit, but that’s a different topic.

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  154. dmick89

    BVS: That’s the million dollar question. It depends quite a bit on what “free tuition” or “free college” means. If you keep admission standards exactly as they are, then I suspect you will increase college enrollment by about 20%.

    I have no problem with admission standards as long as they aren’t biased against minorities. I suspect most of them are. I know I’ve read articles in the past about that and I doubt it’s been corrected since. Fix that problem and each university can have their own admission standards.

    It would be foolish of me or anyone else to think that educational issues in this country are only about college. The entire educational system needs an overhaul and a significant financial investment to make it happen. I don’t think all these issues can be fixed over night, but long term I think each and every student should have access to free college tuition if they choose to go. No, I don’t think every student should go to college. Many would be better off joining the work force immediately after high school and not all jobs require a college education. I think high schools need more counselors and better qualified counselors (requires more money for K-12).

    I don’t know what the increase would be, but 20% for the freshman class sounds about right. I would guess that the increase over the current sophomore, junior and senior classes would be much less than that. I’d bet only about 5, maybe 10% more would graduate, but over time that might increase significantly as K-12 quality improves. I would hope so, but I would also hope that we aren’t sending to college students who don’t need or want to go.

    I don’t have the answers to all of these questions, but I suggest we start with free college and work through the problems after that.

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  155. dmick89

    BVS: I’m not the only academic here in the little OV group though, so maybe some of the others can chip in and correct me. Peer review…

    Yeah, there are a few others so please add some of your thoughts.

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  156. Myles

    I wish we’d just start with candidates for government that don’t want to kill people in my name unless there’s a really, really good reason to. It’s a pretty low bar to hurdle but most candidates seem to be tripping over it.

    I remember during the debates that Ted Cruz said gleefully that he wanted to see if he could make the sand glow. People like that should be committed or jailed. They shouldn’t win re-election to the Senate.

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  157. Ryno

    Myles:
    I wish we’d just start with candidates for government that…kill people in my name unless…Ted Cruz…could make the sand glow. People like that should…win re-election to the Senate.

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  158. Myles

    So apparently the White Sox are in on Harper. If the Cubs don’t sign him, I’d be happy if they did. Beating them is more fun when they aren’t horrible.

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  159. Ryno

    Maybe CHW can also trade for Kris Bryant, Schwarber, Hendricks and others during the fire sale the Cubs will reportedly hold.

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  160. dmick89

    Myles: I wish we’d just start with candidates for government that don’t want to kill people in my name unless there’s a really, really good reason to. It’s a pretty low bar to hurdle but most candidates seem to be tripping over it.

    I think that’s more than reasonable, but my only question is what is a really good reason? My thoughts on that have shifted over time. Considering how much this country has liked to kill (especially brown people), I think that bar has to be set super high for me. I’ve gotten to the point where the only situation in which I’d favor use of our military is if we’re attacked and we must defend this country from an invading army. Even something like 9/11 I’d no longer support military intervention. It was taken so wildly off track and has resulted in an endless war that has predominantly killed Muslim people and has only created more people who want to kill Americans. That’s not even mentioning the loss of American soldiers and the money spent over the last 17 years and counting.

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  161. BVS

    Wow, silly season is in full swing if people think the Cubs will trade Kris Bryant (unless his shoulder is toast).

    The front office has been pretty stable, but the churn in the coaching staff seems pretty unusual for a team that is winning consistently.

    I think the Cubs should do is re-evaluate their medical staff. Both Morrow’s and Darvish’s injuries appear to have been misdiagnosed for a long time over the summer. Resting Morrow outright for longer may have made him available at the end. Yu had to deal with the A-Rod BS questioning his effort when he was being treated for an entirely different injury. I assume A-Rod hasn’t issued any apologies.

    Considering that all of last year’s FA signings were busts, and 2/3 of those were poorly managed medical cases, I’d be looking very hard at some new doctors.

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  162. dmick89

    BVS: Wow, silly season is in full swing if people think the Cubs will trade Kris Bryant (unless his shoulder is toast).

    Yeah, I think what Theo said was fairly clear. He said nobody is off limits, which is the only way you can run an organization. If the Yankees offer a billion dollars worth of talent for Bryant, the Cubs would be dumb to not make that trade. Just because you’re open to trading any and all players doesn’t mean that they’re actually available. The price tag for Bryant is probably so high that no team in their right mind would pay it. But if they do, that’s good news for the Cubs because you know it’s a steal.

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  163. dmick89

    BVS: Both Morrow’s and Darvish’s injuries appear to have been misdiagnosed for a long time over the summer.

    I know that’s frustrating as a fan, but I don’t think it’s uncommon. A few years ago my neck and shoulders were really acting up. It seemed like a pinched nerve, but I had about five different tests with three or four doctors and came away with multiple diagnoses. The bottom line was they weren’t going to know for sure unless they did an MRI (I can’t do an MRI above the neck because I have an implant for my epilepsy) or if they did exploratory surgery. I made several changes in my life. I reduced the amount of time I was on the computer significantly (the reason I don’t post much or anything here anymore), I switched to a standing desk and slowly the pain improved. It still acts up and in all probability is a pinched nerve in the neck. Still, multiple doctors came away with different diagnoses.

    So I’m never surprised when we hear about how team doctors aren’t entirely sure what’s wrong with a pitcher. Maybe the Cubs should get a new medical staff, but I think they’d still have these issues because they’re inevitable.

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  164. andcounting

    dmick89,

    Yeah, it’s pretty impossible to know if there’s anything any doctor could, should, or would have done differently with any of the injuries this year. Even with every possible test they can do, they still guess a lot, and they depend on players actually being honest and forthcoming with information. And didn’t Morrow hurt himself putting his pants on? Any injury can be compounded or complicated by almost any activity. I don’t throw that out to dismiss all diagnoses as guesswork or to excuse any gross negligence, but I don’t think we have evidence of the latter. I have no idea who the Cubs medical staff includes, but overall they’ve been a pretty healthy team the last five years or so. What they really need is better luck, and they used an awful lot of that in ‘16. (dying laughing)

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  165. dmick89

    andcounting: What they really need is better luck, and they used an awful lot of that in ‘16. (dying laughing)

    Yeah, their situational hitting has been awful when they’ve had run scoring opportunities. I don’t know the numbers, but Kris Bryant has been atrocious with men in scoring position. I imagine Schwarber has been too. The Cubs have a lot of guys who suck with men on base and that makes it difficult to win games. If it was just 2018 I wouldn’t worry, but it was 2017 as well.

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  166. Smokestack Lightning

    andcounting: What they really need is better luck, and they used an awful lot of that in ‘16. (dying laughing)

    I’ll gladly take the good healthy luck like what they enjoyed in 2016 over whatever that crap was that had them winning 95 games with the team half-broken and looking like garbage for 2/3 of the year.

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  167. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    2016 was a combination of being lucky when it comes to health and being productive in run scoring opportunities. Early in the 2016 season it seemed like any time they got a runner on 1st base they were going to score three runs or more. I don’t expect the Cubs to be as good as the 2016 team, but I don’t think it’s too much ask to be better than they’ve been at the start of the 2015, 2017 and 2018 seasons. I can at least understand why the 2015 team didn’t get off to a great start. Several of their young players had yet to make their MLB debuts. The 2017 and 2018 teams played like crap for some time at the start of the season.

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  168. andcounting

    The 2016 luck was primarily the health factor, combined with everything great coming together at the same time. We have the memory of really-good Arrieta fresh in our minds, but I tend to forget just how absurdly good Jake was that year, particularly in the second half. The years Hendricks and Lester had were amazing as well. The offense never seemed to let up for more than a few innings. The defense was insane. And they didn’t even have Schwarber the whole season. Such a great team and a fun season.

    I do kind of wonder if all the sideshow stuff like petting zoos and magicians and whatever the hell else Joe brought in weren’t more important than we gave Joe credit for. Looking at those recent struggles in high-leverage situations makes me think they could be thinking too much. Just reading about how the brain processes in two ways, the type 1 involving purely automatic, memorized, immediate, and profoundly efficient functions vs. type 2 analytical, slowed down, deliberate thinking. Hitting involves such fast-paced decision making that needs to be instinctive and reactionary, not cerebral. To quote Pete “Maverick” Mitchell, “If you think, you’re dead.” That said, increased stress leads to cognitive strain, which reduces type 1 processing ability, which slows down mental reaction speed, which increases cognitive strain, which also produces more stress. Maybe it’s far fetched, but I lean toward thinking Joe’s circus antics are actually vital to keeping guys loose and playing without thinking too much.

    I’d also connect that same type of thinking with the influence of home field advantage on the outcomes of games in all sports. To really oversimplify it, good moods lead to better performance. I think Joe has done a good job of keeping moods good, but he has obviously cut back on some of the antics. I suspect he’s been instructed to do so, but that’s even more of a total guess than everything else I’ve just said. I wouldn’t mind more of those efforts to keep guys’ minds off baseball every now and then.

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  169. dmick89

    andcounting,

    Insanely great Jake was in 2015. He threw that no-hitter in the summer (August?) and then he threw another one the following season (before the break, May?).

    I can accept that some of that stuff that Joe did was good for the players. That makes enough sense to me. I don’t think Joe is an especially good manager when it comes to managing the game, but I don’t have any doubt that he’s fantastic when it comes to the players.

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  170. Ryno

    This offseason is boring, so here are the current AFL stats:

    Trent Jabroni (heretofore known as Giambrone): .405/.463/.622, 4-9 K-BB
    Nico Hoerner: .329/.350/.474, 2-16 K-BB

    Erick Leal: 17.1IP, 10H, 0R, 17K, 9BB, 1HBP

    The rest:

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  171. Ryno

    Still waiting for someone to dispel the information in the piece, that the Cubs have communicated to other teams they are prepared to listen to offers for Bryant — and that's a shift from previous offseasons, not some general GM operating philosophy.

    — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 13, 2018

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  172. dmick89

    Ryno,

    I’m not sure what his piece said, but trading Bryant would probably be ridiculously stupid because it’s doubtful any team would offer up enough talent in return for a player like him. There are only two instances in which I can see a team as good as the Cubs trading a player like Bryant. They get an insane offer they’d be idiots to refuse. That offer would probably include at least two top 20 prospects who are near or ready to make their MLB debut (and they’re considered safe in that they aren’t risky toolsy-type prospects). The other way it would maybe make some sense is if they know they have no chance of re-signing Bryant in a few years and they have a shot right now to pick up someone like Machado who could play 3rd. Would Machado be willing to sign with a team that wants him to play 3rd? Last I read he really wanted to play SS.

    The only other way trading Bryant makes any sense is if you’re having a fire sale or if Bryant has somehow become a problem for the team. I find it hard to believe the latter, but stranger things have surely happened. It’s also strange that’s a possibility when they’re still considering whether or not to keep someone like Addison Russell who used his wife as a punching bag.

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  173. dmick89

    dmick89: The only other way trading Bryant makes any sense is if you’re having a fire sale or if Bryant has somehow become a problem for the team.

    If it’s a fire sale, I’m out. I don’t have the time or patience to wait five years while the Cubs suck and hoping you get lucky in your rebuild. I did that for 30 years. I’m not going to watch them tear down a perfectly good team for no reason.

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  174. andcounting

    Ryno,

    (dying laughing), Buster’s use of the word information is pretty hilarious, somehow implying that people became more informed after reading his piece than they had been before.

    Journalists accused of publishing clickbait get just about as defensive as athletes accused of using PEDs. To dispel his so-called information, one would have to prove either a) Theo was neither a recipient nor initiator of any communication with any another team representative regarding the possibility of him listening to a trade offer involving Kris Bryant during this offseason, or b) Theo has been exposed to similar communication in the past without covering his ears and yelling, “LA LA LA LA LA, I’M NOT LISTENING!!!”

    This entire story contains nothing that qualifies as information other than reassurance that Olney is desperate for clicks. Olney having a conversation with someone who says the Cubs are listening to deals for Kris Bryant does not meet the criteria for being informative, as, in its current state of concrete detail, the notion put forward is much more likely to be deceptive for the purpose of intrigue than truthful for the purpose of understanding the Cubs’ intentions.

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  175. andcounting

    andcounting,

    Also, if he did have more substantial specifics or corroboration of the rumor, he would certainly include more of that in his tweet. Even his tweeted rebuttal of Theo’s casual dismissal of his bullshit is crafted to direct people to the story rather than actually spread real information. It’s clickbait upon clickbait, and Buster should be ashamed of himself.

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  176. Myles

    andcounting:
    andcounting,

    Also, if he did have more substantial specifics or corroboration of the rumor, he would certainly include more of that in his tweet. Even his tweeted rebuttal of Theo’s casual dismissal of his bullshit is crafted to direct people to the story rather than actually spread real information. It’s clickbait upon clickbait, and Buster should be ashamed of himself.

    I found Buster Olney’s source!

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  177. EnricoPallazzo

    in a very roundabout way, i would actually be pretty pumped if the cubs traded bryant. it would mean one or both of the following things: that the FO got a simply amazing offer that was so mind-blowingly good that they would have been insane to refuse it, or that they have inside info on bryant’s shoulder and are selling high. the other possibility (a complete tear-down/rebuild) is just not really conceivable to me.

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  178. dmick89

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Some team offering a really great deal is something I can buy. I think it’s highly unlikely that it happens and it’s an almost guarantee that Bryant will be a Cub next season, but I could see it. I’ve never really found the inside knowledge argument convincing. In this day and age all the teams are operating with the same information. It’s doubtful that the Cubs would know something about Bryant’s shoulder that wouldn’t show up in a physical or team medical files that would be shared prior to completing the deal.

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  179. dmick89

    dmick89: It’s doubtful that the Cubs would know something about Bryant’s shoulder that wouldn’t show up in a physical or team medical files that would be shared prior to completing the deal.

    I also think teams want to deal honestly when it comes to a player’s health. I know we talk about deals as won-loss, but the teams want both to benefit. If the Cubs know something about Bryant’s shoulder I’d bet a lot of money that the Cubs would be honest about it once the teams started talking about the return. They’d expect the other team to do the same and it’s a safe bet that teams operate in this manner.

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  180. berselius

    dmick89: Yeah, there are a few others so please add some of your thoughts.

    Rambling thoughts below….

    I mostly agree with what BVS said above, though I think the ‘free college for all’ works better as a slogan than an actual policy (insert long rant about the Bernie crowd, who I mostly agree with in spirit but not in detail). I think we need to ask the more basic question of what college even is intended to do. A lot of the rhetoric from both sides of the political spectrum seems to follow from the point of view that a university is a skills certification factory that produces jobs, which is kind of a joke aside from a few specific fields. Even in science we pretty much have to retrain everything someone knows as soon as they hit grad school. The only industry that academia is propping up is standup jokes about English majors.

    Pretty much everyone from my (affluent, almost entirely white) high school went to college. Doing anything else was pretty much out of the question save for the few exceptions of people who lived on the few remaining farms in the county. I’m not really sure what the value was for a lot of those folks when they went to Rando Backwoods Tech University, let alone some of the lesser state schools. I swear half my HS went to James Madison University. I was a pretty elitist asshole about this stuff back then, now I’m just kinda one now that I’ve spent 13 years in higher education, and now work in academia-flavored industry and have to figure out how to recruit the right people. Based on my own experience and most of the students that I taught, the main social value of undergraduate education is getting the hell out of your hometown and figuring out what you want, and maybe getting exposed to new ideas/people/etc. Actual education/training/etc. is just a side benefit that is available if you want to take it. In my experience most students don’t really do so. What undergrad degree you get mostly doesn’t matter, it’s just a shibboleth/stamp/entry into what passes for the middle class. You need a fucking BA to get a job as a receptionist these days.

    When younger relatives of mine asked family members for advice on what college to go to, there were lots of different opinions but the two of us who work(ed) in academia both independently said it didn’t matter where you went, unless you had a VERY specific interest with working with some person/project that only existed there. We both plugged large state schools that had a wide variety of opportunities and emphasized that the most important thing was that wherever you went was somewhere you think you would actually enjoyed living on a day to day basis outside of class. The rest you can figure out when you get there.

    I think state/federal governments should be investing a lot more in education, but I’d much rather see more stuff early on. When I taught calculus the main stumbling block was not calc itself but students poor algebra skills. Programming is something that I think a lot more people should learn in school, but there’s a huge shortage of people that can teach it at all, let alone well, aside from all of the expense of computers etc.

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  181. Ryno

    I’m told Cubs ownership has give the front office the ok to spend on Bryce Harper. However, they’re still working hard to move contracts so they won’t be restricted filling other needs if Bryce is signed.

    — DanPom (@DanPom69) November 14, 2018

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  182. Ryno

    Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs’ No. 6
    The Cubs’ 2018 first-rounder’s inexperience has been a non-factor in the AFL, where he’s hit .321 and looked like a player straight out of Double-A, and one possibly even on the cusp of the Majors. That’s not to say that Hoerner will springboard up the ladder in such fashion in 2019 — but he certainly could. At the plate, he has a knack for barreling the ball to all fields, can handle velocity and adjust to secondaries, and he has more juice in his bat than you’d expect. His arm stroke is a little stiff at shortstop, but it plays up because he creatively finds ways to achieve a good slot, has sound footwork and consistently follows his throws with his body. He’s a very, very solid ballplayer.
    https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-who-stood-out-in-arizona-fall-league/c-300694858?tid=151437456

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  183. Ryno

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Consider the source. But I will say that Ryno once said something along the lines of “Josh Donaldson was a better draft pick than Matt Wieters” right after that draft. Maybe “interesting” is a better word.

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  184. Ryno

    Saw this trade idea posted elsewhere:

    Schwarber (or Happ), Quintana, Kintzler and a prospect (I’d include Adbert personally) for Kluber.

    I think I’d do that deal in 1 second and I’m pretty sure CLE would be OK with it also.

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  185. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I feel the same way. I’m not sure why it feels like Schwarber will be much more valuable than Happ down the road, but I have much more confidence in Schwarber. Schwarber has been good for 2.7 WAR in 337 games vs. Happ’s 2.3 WAR over257 games. Imagine I did more research and analysis of those two players and found them statistically comparable. I have a better gut feeling about Schwarber that I can’t explain. Any idea why Schwarber seems more promising?

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  186. JKV

    dmick89:
    Myles,

    Yeah, i expect they’ll re-sign Chavez and probably pick up another reliever and that’s it. They’ll try to win the wild card next year. Can’t fucking wait.

    He’s not called OV’s resident optimist for no reason, folks.

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  187. Perkins

    I’d prefer Schwarber to Happ for largely sentimental reasons – I also have a March 5th birthday and an ACL injury, and his rehab to get to play in the World Series reminds me of my own to be able to deploy to Afghanistan with my unit.

    Also, I’m skeptical that Happ will ever get his strikeout rate low enough to be a consistently productive hitter.

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  188. Ryno

    andcounting,

    Same. I think we prefer Schwarber because we have more confidence/optimism in the things that boost his value vs. the things that boost Happ’s value…even though they’re statistically comparable overall.

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  189. dmick89

    Schwarber cut his strikeout rate down to a much more respectable number this past season and increased his walk rate. Schwarber seems to get more bad strike calls than any player I remember. My gut tells me that it’s a random thing and that should change. He has a ton of power and though he’ll never hit for average, I have much more confidence in him being above average than I do with Happ. The problem is that teams are probably going to feel that Happ is a wild card and that they could slot Schwarber in every day at either LF, 1st or DH.

    I know this hasn’t been mentioned, but Rizzo isn’t getting any younger and 1st basemen typically don’t age all that well. If I was the Cubs I’d be looking into what kind of deal I could get for Rizzo while he’s still a really good player. I’d hate to see Rizzo go, but Schwarber can easily play 1st base if the Cubs deal him. Considering Rizzo’s contract the Cubs should get a lot of talent in return.

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  190. berselius

    If the Bears win again this week, I’ll be actively rooting for the Packers to lose the rest of the way so that they will finally give McCarthy the axe.

    I’m looking forward to him being introduced as the new coach of the Cleveland Browns.

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  191. berselius

    dmick89,

    I don’t see the Cubs moving on from Tony anytime soon. Chemistry/makeup seem to be a big part of their evaluation process and he’s undoubtedly the leader in the locker room.

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  192. dmick89

    Perkins,

    If his career comes to a natural conclusion rather than an injury I would be very surprised to see that happen. That happens so infrequently that we should almost always assume that it won’t. Assuming he ages as we’d expect, I’d be very surprised to see the Cubs even seriously consider re-signing him after his contract is up. I think people would be shocked if they went back and watched video of Rizzo in 2015 and compared his athleticism to what it was in 2018. He’s declined in some pretty significant ways already. I assume his career will extend beyond 2021, but I’ll be surprised if it happens in a Cubs uniform.

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  193. Perkins

    dmick89,

    My statement was predicated on the assumption that a lot of the front office will move on after 2021, and whoever is at the helm will re-sign him due to his status as a fan favorite/leader. Or that the NL will adopt the DH in the next CBA.

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  194. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I guess I could maybe see it happening if the Cubs undergo a complete rebuild in the near future, but even then I still think it’s unlikely that he’d be around. Trading Rizzo’s team friendly contract would certainly be a big part of any rebuild in my opinion. That is unless he just starts to suck and has no trade value. If that happens what’s the point of any new front office retaining him?

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  195. Perkins

    dmick89,

    Maybe I’m just projecting based on 30+ years of seeing the Cubs make decisions based on fans…I realize that’s not really the MO of the current front office. Rizzo would almost certainly be a player with a lot of surplus value.

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  196. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I think the fans have changed over those 30+ years. My guess is that if Rizzo hadn’t turned his 2018 season around a lot of fans would be wanting the Cubs to trade Rizzo for pennies on the dollar just so they didn’t have to watch him anymore. The reason I don’t see Rizzo (or almost any player for that matter) playing for one team is that as he ages he gets worse and it gets easier for the front office to trade the player in part because the fans no longer care all that much. Even the Pirates fans didn’t seem to care all that much when they traded the best player they’d had since Barry Bonds. Nor did they get all that upset when they traded Cole to the Astros.

    If the Cubs do trade Bryant this offseason I’ll probably be one of the most upset Cubs fans around and I’ll be perfectly happy with it if the Cubs get a good deal in return.

    I know Cubs fans had a great excuse ready for why they suddenly hated Sosa, but I think the truth is that Sosa just wasn’t nearly as good as he once was and Cubs fans didn’t care all that much if they kept him. The steroid speculation and leaving early just made for a great excuse.

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  197. dmick89

    More importantly than the fans evolving, I think front offices have evolved even more. Most front offices today (all of them?) view players as assets, which they are.

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  198. andcounting

    dmick89,

    It’s such a strange position to be in as a fan to feel like we’re supposed to care about a player only while he’s good and only while he’s on our favorite team. Like it becomes rational to do so, to have no emotional ties to individual players whatsoever, when the strictly rational thing to do would be to have loyalty only to the best teams and/or players, whoever they might be at any given moment. It’s a completely valid point that Pittsburgh fans seemed to have no problem letting go of a past-his-prime Cutch, but I wonder if that doesn’t weaken the emotional allegiance those fans have for the team in general. It must benefit a team somewhat to hold on to fan favorites a little bit too long just to enhance the mystique of the player’s legacy and the overall bond between team and fan. I’m sure there’s a measurable market value to all that. Shit, David Ross is a prime example. I think the team-friendly contract, while a valuable trade factor, actually makes it easier to hold on to Rizzo past his value as a middle of the order hitter. I’d bet he does retire a Cub.

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  199. dmick89

    andcounting,

    I think the team leader thing that berselius mentioned is a good reason for teams to stick with guys longer than they otherwise would have. I think that’s probably especially true if you’ve got a guy like Rizzo and you’re going to be going through a rebuild. He’s definitely someone that you’d want younger players to learn from. I remember telling my nephew a few years ago that the Pirates would probably look to move McCutchen as soon as it became clear they weren’t going to be contending. He thought they’d keep him until his contract ended (he’s a Pirates fan and a huge fan of his). I actually thought they should have traded him sooner than they did, but I think part of the reason he stuck around is that he’s a team leader. I still think it comes down to business at some point and unless Rizzo is a lot better than I give him credit for (possible) or he retires early, I just don’t see him playing for only one team. I think there’s a better chance that Kris Bryant plays for only one team than there is for Rizzo. I assume Bryant will be gone as soon as he reaches free agency, but there’s at least a chance the Cubs offer up a huge extension that keeps him in a Cubs uniform for at least another decade.

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  200. andcounting

    dmick89,

    That team leader factor is probably big. Another thing: of all the guys this front office is likely to hang onto for sentimental reasons, Rizzo has to be the most likely. Didn’t Epstein draft him in Boston, trade him to Hoyer in SD, then acquired him together as the first real move of their regime with the Cubs. I guess I just don’t see them dealing Rizzo in a “sorry, that’s business” move in the next two years, and after that he’s got 10-5 protection. I can easily imagine them giving Rizzo the Jeter treatment. Then again, if he stops hitting for a whole season. . . . Fuck. I just really don’t want that to happen. Rizzo is the poster boy of the new Cubs. He should retire a Cub. I would honestly rather see that happen than see the Cubs improve by dealing him. Sorry, not sorry.

    I don’t think anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy or heartless or anything.

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  201. andcounting

    Ryno,

    The fact that the never-spend White Sox are even being mentioned makes me think Reinsdorf has decided to go all-in and will outspend everyone. And he can and with less penalty than any other suitor.

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  202. Ryno

    KW
    2:03 What’s currently keeping you from hanging a 50 FV on Nico Hoerner? Would you need to see more power out of his bat to justify him inevitably moving to 2B?

    Eric A Longenhagen
    2:03 He might move up when we do the Cubs list
    The power he’s shown here in AZ has been surprising

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  203. Ryno

    KW: Has Trent Giambrone shown you anything in the AFL to move him up your prospect list?

    Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I kinda dig him. He’s an above average athlete with a swing I love, he can play a bunch of different positions.

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  204. Ryno

    Mike
    1:19 The starting 3B, SS, 2B for 2019 Chicago Cubs are___,____,_____

    Keith Law
    1:20 Bryant, Baez, TBD. I would still like to think they turn the page on Russell, with Baez emerging as a good shortstop who’s far more productive with the bat.

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  205. Ryno

    Frank
    1:22 What do you think the ceiling for Alex Lange is? Could he be a bottom or mid rotation guy for the cubs? Thanks.

    Keith Law
    1:22 Always been a reliever for me.

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  206. Ryno

    Tom
    1:32 I’m not buying the Cubs not having the money to make a run at Harper/Machado. Everyone keeps saying they are at the top of budget but anyone who sees the organization knows they’re swimming in money especially with a TV deal a year away. Do you really think Theo doesn’t have the means to go after Harper or is it smokescreen?

    Keith Law
    1:32 Of course they have the money. Probably 28 teams have the money. It’s about willingness to spend it.

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  207. Ryno

    Randall
    1:32 Cochon in NOLA is always a must for us. Any change to your opinion on Nico after strong AFL season? At Wrigley by 2020?

    Keith Law
    1:33 No change – didn’t see good contact from him, smart player, limited ceiling, moves fast but don’t see over a regular.

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  208. uncle dave

    s/o to the negative point bandit who signed up for like three accounts, hit a dozen or so posts, and then got bored and left.

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  209. uncle dave

    berselius: Rambling thoughts below….

    I think we need to ask the more basic question of what college even is intended to do. A lot of the rhetoric from both sides of the political spectrum seems to follow from the point of view that a university is a skills certification factory that produces jobs, which is kind of a joke aside from a few specific fields.

    […]

    Pretty much everyone from my (affluent, almost entirely white) high school went to college. Doing anything else was pretty much out of the question save for the few exceptions of people who lived on the few remaining farms in the county. I’m not really sure what the value was for a lot of those folks when they went to Rando Backwoods Tech University, let alone some of the lesser state schools.

    […]

    What undergrad degree you get mostly doesn’t matter, it’s just a shibboleth/stamp/entry into what passes for the middle class. You need a fucking BA to get a job as a receptionist these days.

    Couldn’t agree more with all of the above, and I think that it’s important to have a broader understanding of what ‘college’ means in this context. What it should mean is any post-secondary education and job training that currently causes people to take out student loans, because it’s the loans that are the real issue here.

    I think that a lot of folks who grew up in the professional middle class or above — myself included — have viewed ‘college’ as just what you described it as, namely something you have to do in order to remain in the professional middle class. We talk about all of the other stuff that college is supposed to be, but at the end of the day that’s what we think of, and that’s what a very broad slice of the educational policy community (on both sides of the aisle) thinks of when considering who should go to college and why.

    In reality, there are a huge number of people who are encumbered by student debt who aren’t in that group. It costs about as much to get a degree from a for-profit online school (if you want to be a receptionist) or DeVry (if you want to work in IT) as it does to have your professional class standing confirmed at a good state school or even a relatively inexpensive private school. Given the lack of upward mobility available for folks who didn’t enter college with that standing, the fact that the system pushes that group to go neck-deep in debt is extremely unhealthy, and frankly, cruel. When you consider how many people get into debt and don’t finish their degrees because they can’t afford 2-4 years of limited income while they’re being educated, it gets even worse.

    At the same time, we’ve created a situation where certain vital trades are suffering extreme shortages of labor. Everyone tells poor kids that they should learn to code, and there’s definitely work in the more technical side of IT/tech/etc. to be had. But that’s not the only technical profession that offers opportunity right now. I work as a real estate developer in the Bay Area (public sector, so please holster your rotten tomatoes) and it’s virtually impossible for us to find available contractors due to the housing boom and the lack of labor. We had a wave of retirements post-2008 that’s been compounded by immigration policy, but we don’t really have an effective pipeline to backfill the losses. Even non-union carpenters working on private gigs are pulling in $50-plus an hour right now, and they’re driving in from Fresno and sleeping in their trucks to do it.

    There’s absolutely no reason why we shouldn’t be investing in community colleges to provide a path for folks to get technical skills that doesn’t involve $60K in student debt. If we were smart about it, we could provide “free college” for a lot of folks for a fraction of the cost of forgiving student loans from SNHU or somewhere like that.

    And while the building trades are traditionally and specifically cyclical, I’m willing to wager that we will not see a downturn for quite some time. Here in California, we’re already grotesquely underbuilt in terms of both residential real estate and infrastructure. The market has done the bare minimum to correct this, but we could be on our current trajectory for decades before we catch up. And that’s not even considering that we’re likely looking at needing to spend trillions in the coming decade or two to mitigate the impacts of climate change, whether that it through proactively dealing with it or cleaning up from disaster after disaster. (Note what’s going on right now in Sacramento, where an already robust homeless population is in the process of doubling as fire refugees arrive.)

    I don’t know if we can do that, though. Does anyone on either side of the aisle want to admit that college and upward mobility is a racket, and that success has way more to do with where you came from and is barely affected by the choices you’ve made? Since both sides have spent the past three decades trashing public primary and secondary education and forcing higher education into a ‘business’ model, can anyone admit that the experiment has largely been a failure from the perspective of student and workforce outcomes? I don’t know if anyone has the guts.

    We have a number of looming crises that we may or may not address, but that theoretically should provide opportunity for a lot of people entering the workforce. It will be a shame if we decide to tackle climate change, or the homeless epidemic, or our backlog of infrastructure needs, but don’t have the right workforce to do it. We’re kinda screwed.

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  210. berselius

    uncle dave:

    I don’t know if we can do that, though. Does anyone on either side of the aisle want to admit that college and upward mobility is a racket, and that success has way more to do with where you came from and is barely affected by the choices you’ve made? Since both sides have spent the past three decades trashing public primary and secondary education and forcing higher education into a ‘business’ model, can anyone admit that the experiment has largely been a failure from the perspective of student and workforce outcomes? I don’t know if anyone has the guts.

    This.

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  211. berselius

    uncle dave: Everyone tells poor kids that they should learn to code, and there’s definitely work in the more technical side of IT/tech/etc. to be had.

    I think the main reason that people should learn programming in pre-college is that it teaches the skills that you are indirectly supposed to be learning in pre-calc mathematics (problem solving) in a much better way. This has been the main push for the common core stuff that has encountered so much resistance – do you care of someone knows how to multiply two large numbers (which is what a calculator can do anyway) or do you care if they develop the kind of intuition you need to figure out how to accomplish some task. I would rather that anyone who isn’t targeting calc in high school takes a class or two like this instead. Maybe I’m a little too naive in thinking that massive deployment of CS classes wouldn’t just also devolve into rote learning., however.

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  212. uncle dave

    berselius: I think the main reason that people should learn programming in pre-college is that it teaches the skills that you are indirectly supposed to be learning in pre-calc mathematics (problem solving) in a much better way. This has been the main push for the common core stuff that has encountered so much resistance – do you care of someone knows how to multiply two large numbers (which is what a calculator can do anyway) or do you care if they develop the kind of intuition you need to figure out how to accomplish some task. I would rather that anyone who isn’t targeting calc in high school takes a class or two like this instead. Maybe I’m a little too naive in thinking that massive deployment of CS classes wouldn’t just also devolve into rote learning., however.

    I’m no expert on education and pedagogy, but this is kind of the same argument that some folks make about supporting investment in the humanities. I agree with your earlier point that you don’t actually learn anything in college, for the most part. It should be an exercise in learning to learn, as should most of the basic educational experience.

    I’m really fortunate that I had some important teachers at various levels of my education who got that and really encouraged the development of critical thinking. I’m not sure that’s too common.

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  213. Ryno

    I remember trying to convince Cowboys fans they should want their team to draft Donald. They didn’t see how he was a scheme fit…

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  214. Ryno

    On details of what Chicago gave up: I continue to think we offered a better deal than Chicago, but leads me to wonder if we were ever in consideration for Raiders.

    — Niners Nation (@NinersNation) November 20, 2018

    John Lynch on the Mack trade. Interesting…

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  215. Ryno

    I think so too.
    Reading between the lines, [Hickey] might have been allowed to “leave for personal reasons” as opposed to being fired.
    Anyone remember if he signed a multiyear deal?
    8=D~ ( x )
    Posted by Al Yellon on Nov 20, 2018 | 5:07 PM

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  216. Ryno

    For fun, I’ve been going through baseball-reference to find the best seasons by WAR without looking at the actual list of top seasons.

    The top seasons of all time weren’t all that surprising, but the top in the last 100 years were. Any guesses?

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  217. Ryno

    Ryno,

    The best pitching season of all time was Tim Keefe’s in 1883. He started (and completed ) 68 games and struck out 359 over 619 innings, ending up with a WAR of 19.8.

    I thought Old Hoss Radbourn’s season the following year was better, even though his WAR was 19.1. He started and completed 73 games, striking out 441 over 678.2 innings. His record was 59-12.

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  218. Myles

    Ryno:
    Ryno,

    The best pitching season of all time was Tim Keefe’s in 1883. He started (and completed ) 68 games and struck out 359 over 619 innings, ending up with a WAR of 19.8.

    I thought Old Hoss Radbourn’s season the following year was better, even though his WAR was 19.1. He started and completed 73 games, striking out 441 over 678.2 innings. His record was 59-12.

    Old Hoss had 17 more wins that year than Prior had in his career and 21 more innings.

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  219. Ryno

    hear at least half-dozen teams are believed to be real players for Noah Syndergaard. mets are seriously considering deals for him if they could fill multiple holes with real impact. will be one of the big winter meetings storylines.

    — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 21, 2018

    Bryant+Heyward for Syndergaard. Sign Machado and Harper.

    #tongueincheekornah

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  220. Ryno

    On ESPN, @ESPNChiCubs says Cubs run prevention coordinator Tommy Hottovy is someone to watch for Cubs pitching coach. He knows the pitchers very well, they work with him already, so there could definitely be some sense there.

    — Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) November 21, 2018

    Run Prevention Coordinator cracks me up. I imagine him watching games and becoming despondent every time the opposing team scores a run.

    *run scores*
    Hottovy: *sighs* “Come on, guys, we talked about this!”

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  221. Ryno

    I imagine his meetings with the team are like everyone watching a cutup of all the runs allowed in the previous game. Each time a runner crosses the plate, Hottovy pauses and says something like, “See that right there? We don’t want that.”

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  222. berselius

    Ryno:
    I imagine his meetings with the team are like everyone watching a cutup of all the runs allowed in the previous game. Each time a runner crosses the plate, Hottovy pauses and says something like, “See that right there? We don’t want that.”

    If he gets the axe, he could always get hired to write the “Keys to the game” for FOX baseball broadcasts.

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  223. andcounting

    Ryno,

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    Is run prevention coordinator a lateral move from Vice President of Base Clogging?

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  224. dmick89

    dmick89:
    Hickey ———> steps down for personal reasons

    Those personal reasons are probably that the Cubs plan to do nothing this offseason and that they would replace him with someone who had a made up job no one had heard of.

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  225. andcounting

    I may make up a trade rumor post just to eliminate the need to scroll through 400 comments every time I refresh the page.

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