Wild Card Preview: Colorado Rockies (91-72) at Chicago Cubs (95-68)

In Series Previews by berselius275 Comments

At least the Cubs didn’t draw the Dodgers in this one, Kershaw or no Kershaw, and they don’t have to travel yet again. We can only hope the Cubs don’t feel the same frustration and cynicism about being stuck in this position that many of us do at home. I guess we can always point to the 2006 Cardinals. It’s important to remember that one of the most notable things about 2016 was that the best team actually managed to win. Given what a messy season it has been, it would be only fitting if these playoffs were equally messy, and anything can happen.

Team Leaders

Rocks

  • OBP: Nolan Arenado (.374)
  • ISO: Trevor Story (.273)
  • HR: Arenado (37)
  • R+RBI: Arenado (212)
  • wRC+: Arenado (131)
  • BSR: Carlos Gonzalez (3.3)
  • DRS: DJ Lemaheiu (+18)
  • SP K/9: German Marquez (10.40)
  • SP BB/9: Marquez (2.59)
  • SP FIP: Marquez (3.34)
  • RP K/9: Adam Ottavino (12.98)
  • RP BB/9: Scott Oberg (1.68)
  • RP FIP: Ottavino (2.74)
  • WAR: Arenado (5.7)

Cubs

  • OBP: Ben Zobrist (.379)
  • ISO: Javier Baez (.266)
  • HR: Baez (34)
  • R+RBI: Baez (212)
  • wRC+: Baez (131)
  • BSR: Baez (4.2)
  • DRS: Albert Almora (+9)
  • SP K/9: Cole Hamels (8.72)
  • SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.99)
  • SP FIP: Hamels (3.42)
  • RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (11.75)
  • RP BB/9: Jesse Chavez (1.22)
  • RP FIP: Chavez (2.40)
  • WAR: Baez (5.5)

The Rockies have a weirdly lousy (park adjusted) offense this year, and are somehow in the playoffs on the back of pitching and defense.

Injuries, transactions, vengeance pacts, etc.

Morrow is done for the season, and Strop probably won’t be back until the NLDS if that happense. Bryant had a week where Joe gave him some ‘proactive’ rest for his may or may not be still bum shoulder, and was hit on the wrist by a pitch earlier this week. That didn’t stop him from hitting a 5000 foot home run in his return. There were rumblings that Schwarber was having some back tightness last week and didn’t seem to play as much as you normally see him.

No big news on the Rockies side, injury wise, that I can see.

Pitching Probables

ERA, FIP, xFIP, projected ERA listed for each pitcher

Tuesday: Kyle Freeland, LHP (2.85, 3.67, 4.22, 4.71) vs Jon Lester, LHP (3.32, 4.40, 4.43, 3.54), 7:05 PM CT

 

Kyle Freeland seems to be a pitcher in the mold of Kyle Hendricks – he won’t necessarily blow you away, but he’ll keep you off balance and manage contact as well as he can. He’s pitching on three day’s rest in this one, so the Cubs could once again see a lot of the opposing bullpen. As we have seen, that’s not something you want to hear about any of these playoff teams other than the Cubs.

Lester is coming off six shoutout innings against the Pirates that looked like they would be anything but scoreless. Lester certainly has the experience when it comes to pitching in big games, and of the Cubs starters he’s still the guy I would want to see on the mound in a must win game…..assuming Hendricks isn’t available.

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Comments

  1. andcounting

    In the event this is the last one you’ll have to do this year, thank you, b, for the series previews and win recaps. You’re a light in the darkness, a true north in a world of spinning compasses.

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  2. Ryno

    In my 27 years as a Cubs fan, I’ve learned the only win the Cubs win the World Series is when they’re clearly the best team in baseball.

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  3. Ryno

    (dying laughing)o(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)oolll(dying laughing)ol @ PIT

    “If you don’t accept our very generous offer of $17 million guaranteed during the next five seasons, then we’re just going to have to transition tag * you.”

    *The transition tag would pay Bell more than $17 million next season.

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  4. Perkins

    Myles:
    Feel horrible about this game.

    I’m hoping that Freeland’s pitching on short rest and the Rockies’ having flown DEN-LAX-ORD in two days with a game in between hurts them. But I’m not overly optimistic.

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  5. Myles

    Perkins: I’m hoping that Freeland’s pitching on short rest and the Rockies’ having flown DEN-LAX-ORD in two days with a game in between hurts them. ButI’m not overly optimistic.

    Freeland has also been HR-lucky, which has pushed his numbers down. One game is spiky, though, so if today is a 1 or 2 HR day instead of a 0 HR day, Freeland’s peripherals are such that we will be better set-up than we would against a comparable “elite” starter.

    Said another way, a disproportionate part of Freeland’s value is tied up in HR-prevention.

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  6. andcounting

    So, with the lefty Freeman on the mound, what do we want the lineup to be?

    I’d go…
    Zobrist 4
    Baez 6
    Bryant 9
    Rizzo 3
    Contreras 2
    Bote 5
    Happ 7
    Almora 8
    Lester 1

    Especially because I face no consequences for my fictional decisions.

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  7. cerulean

    Everybody knows how this is ending
    Forgive me for forgetting…

    Star-crossed [Cubs] slow dancing
    Retreating [not] advancing…

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  8. Perkins

    Apparently Edwards had forearm discomfort after Sunday’s game, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up needing TJS.

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  9. andcounting

    Perkins,

    That seems like a kind of built-in excuse for leaving him off the roster at this point. It could be serious/genuine, or it could be an easy way to make sitting him a non-issue.

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  10. North Side Pat

    Edwards was only throwing something like 91-92 MPH on Sunday, so there was some speculation that he might be hurt. That sucks.

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  11. Myles

    I want to revise my prediction to include Baez hitting 2 HR and striking out 3 times, but I’ll stay with what I’ve put. Love the attitude.

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  12. Rizzo the Rat

    In a Wild Card Game first, ESPN2 will televise an alternative viewing experience for this event, driven largely by on-screen graphics, data and information from Statcast.

    Ugh. It sounds like some people saw the stupid “K-Zone” graphic and said, “more of this, please.”

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  13. Rizzo the Rat

    Anyway, my only complaint about this lineup is starting Murphy against a LHP. I’d save him to pinch-hit against one of the Rockies’ better right-handed relievers, e.g., Davis or Ottavino.

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  14. andcounting

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Those were my thoughts too. But at least Joe acknowledged the platoon disadvantage somewhat by dropping him in the order. I would have loved to see the Cubs’ best defensive infield out there for Lester.

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  15. andcounting

    Myles:
    Not a single person in the Athletic article thinks the Cubs get out of the NLDS.

    Best news I’ve heard since Strop made the roster.

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  16. North Side Pat

    Observation from Wrigley: there are way fewer Brewers fans in here tonight compared to yesterday. Therefore the Cubs are going to win.

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  17. Rizzo the Rat

    I love it when ESPN does an in-game interview and the actual game takes up less than half of the screen.

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  18. BVS

    dmick89,

    Me too:

    Better hitters this year by OPS are Heyward, Baez, Schwarber, Zobrist (coming off an injury from last year).

    Everyone else (even pitchers), worse. Most by 50 points or more on OPS.

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  19. JKV

    The 2018 Chicago Cubs scored 0 or 1 run 40 times. Averaged 4.67 runs scored per game. .744 OPS
    The 2017 Chicago Cubs scored 0 or 1 run 28 times. Averaged 5.07 runs scored per game. .775 OPS
    The 2016 Chicago Cubs scored 0 or 1 run 19 times. Averaged 4.98 runs scored per game. .772 OPS

    I made a post earlier that Chili Davis wasn’t to blame. I was wrong.

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  20. Rizzo the Rat

    dmick89,

    I wouldn’t agree if they were tied. It’s the third time through the order for Lester, and six good innings don’t have much predictive value.

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  21. Smokestack Lightning

    Always good for the soul to see the guy who strikes out less than 10% against LHP, strike out against LHP.

    ADD:

    Also good to see more groundballs.

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  22. Perkins

    The LaStella CI call was the universe’s way of giving Joe a mulligan for not using Schwarber. Predictably, he didn’t see that.

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  23. JKV

    BVS:
    I should have tried the Statcast earlier. No A-Rod is such an improvement.

    Ya. I switched to ESPN2 after A-Rod said: “and that’s why Jon Lester is Jon Lester.”

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  24. Author
    berselius

    BVS,

    If I weren’t on my phone I’d try to find GBTS’s Campana inside the park HR gif (dying laughing) (dying laughing).

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  25. Smokestack Lightning

    That pitch that Davis throws. The one that Gameday portrays as falling off the fucking screen, must look really, really good when it leaves his hand.

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  26. Smokestack Lightning

    To be fair. I can’t decide whether this is better or not. Getting another minimum of three games to watch this formerly talented now completely terrible fucking offense doesn’t sound all that great. Otoh, I hate losing winnable games. And this one has been winnable every step of the way.

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  27. BVS

    Well…now I can catch up on all the things I didn’t get done while running from wind and floods from Hurricane Florence. 🙁

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  28. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Yeah, I like them, but they frustrated me a lot. The Cubs need to do something offensively to help them be more consistent. I have no idea what, but this was an entire season of an inconsistent offense.

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  29. Rizzo the Rat

    I should probably be stewing about Gore chasing that 3-2 pitch to lead off the inning, but then I remember that his getting on base might have just prolonged the game indefinitely.

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  30. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat,

    They probably don’t, but the results are what they are. Chili was brought in to get the offense more consistent and it didn’t happen. And the team he left exploded into one of the best offenses in baseball.

    I bet Hickey keeps his job.

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