Why the Cubs will trade Ryan Dempster for whatever they can get

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick89177 Comments

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I'm sure everyone is as tired of the Ryan Dempster Saga as I am, but all along I had been assuming offering him arbitration at the end of the season was a no-brainer for the Cubs. If they can't get at least something decent in return, they could offer arbitration and would receive a supplemental pick in next year's draft if he declined. I had also assumed Dempster would decline, which would then net them the pick next year. More importantly than the pick, it would give the Cubs some additional money to play with in the draft to spend how they saw fit.

While I assumed Dempster would decline the arbitration because a bigger deal would be available, the possibility of declining it wasn't a bad situation to be in. The Cubs would get Dempster under contract for about $12 million or so. He's worth that and depending on the value of the win, he's probably more than worth $12 million next season. There was no risk in offering him arbitration so it was a no-brainer.

Upon further thought, I no longer believe the Cubs will offer arbitration. The Cubs won't be contending next year, but it's not like they have a lot of pitching talent to take the ball every 5th day. That was one reason why I figured they'd be fine with him accepting the deal. However, the Cubs will find themselves in this very same situation this time next year.

Dempster, if he returned next year, would maintain his 10 and 5 rights, which allows him to veto any trade. Since the Cubs won't be contending, they would undoubtedly be looking to shop him at the deadline and having had troubles with the process once before, the Cubs are highly unlikely to put themselves in the same situation a year from now. This leaves only one option: trading him.

The more I've thought about this, I believe that was the only option from the start, which further decreased any leverage the Cubs had. I don't believe the Cubs ever intended to offer arbitration. It's not because Dempster isn't worth it. He probably is. It's because they want the prospect or two they can acquire for him and they have no need for him at this point. I think I've been wrong all along to assume they'd offer arbitration.

The Cubs will work out a deal prior to the July 31st deadline because if they don't trade him, they get nothing in return.

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  1. Not Jed Hoyer

    But you already said he won’t accept arbitration. If the Cubs don’t get a better offer than what they value a supplemental pick, then let him finish the year here.

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  2. mb21

    @ Not Jed Hoyer:
    I don’t believe he would accept arbitration. He’ll have larger deals on the table, which in my opinion, makes it likely he takes one. We can’t be certain of that though. Dempster loves Chicago. His daughter’s doctor is there and she needs regular medical attention. He’s comfortable in Chicago and he’s made a lot of money in his career. I don’t think he accepts it, but the possibility exists and because of that he’ll be traded. For the same reason the Cubs didn’t offer arbitration to a few players they’ve had eligible for it in recent years, the Cubs are unlikely to offer it to Dempster.

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  3. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    @ Aisle424:
    What the fuck were they thinking?

    English was not their first language, but I don’t know how somebody didn’t tell them what it meant in English.

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  4. Aisle424

    They don’t have to trade him next year if he accepts arbitration. The Cubs aren’t short on money. Especially since they should be done paying Carlos Silva by next year. The only large contract left on the books will be Soriano and that will be there whether he is a Cub or not. But the Cubs have money and someone has to pitch every 5 days. It might as well be Dempster at a value.

    Now, I’ve heard that Theo is pissed as hell and just may not bother with the bullshit because he figures he can use the $12 million on someone exactly like Dempster, except without the Harry Caray impression. Maybe he truly has burned all his bridges with the Cubs. If so, then you’re right. But if not, I still don’t see the harm in offering arbitration.

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  5. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    You may be right, but I figure if they want to deal him this year they’ll want the same thing next year. I don’t know if they’re pissed at Dempster or pissed at the no-trade rights. Maybe both. When is Dempster’s next start? I think he’s gone before that, but like I said, who knows?

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  6. Rice Cube

    @ Aisle424:

    I guess they could talk to Demp about it between now and 7/31 to see whether he’s more likely to decline arbitration, but there’s plenty of time for him to change his mind between now and whenever the deadline to accept/decline the offer.

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  7. Aisle424

    @ mb21:
    They wanted to trade him this year because they figured they could get something of actual value for him, which is why they were willing to pay pretty much his whole salary to pitch for someone else. But now that is all shot to hell UNLESS he pitches the way he has the first half for the remainder of this year AND starts next year pitching as well as this year, THEN teams might again think he is worth someone like a Zach Lee or Delgado type. So, basically, his trade value is shot to hell so why bother?

    They’ll listen and maybe take an opportunity to him, but they won;t be actively callng people about him either. He’ll get dropped in as “oh, we’re also willing to part with Dempster if you’re willing to part with something better than a shitty relief prospect. No? Ok then.”

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  8. mb21

    I kind of hope you’re right, 424. I hate the idea of selling just to sell. I’ve just convinced myself the Cubs won’t offer arbitration and there were reports the other day that they might not (or probably wouldn’t).

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  9. Aisle424

    @ mb21:
    I’m hearing the same thing, so I think you are actually right, but I also think them letting emotion enter into this is disappointing.

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  10. Aisle424

    I honestly don’t think they can replace Dempster for $12M and they have to replace him if they trade him for nothing (and that’s what they will get out of this). Trading him makes this team worse, not better.

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  11. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    They’ve already let emtion enter into it and yes, It’s disappointing. I had hoped it would be different than the previous front office when it came to this kind of thing, but I think I was naive to believe it would.

    Trading Dempster for anyone not as good as him makes the team worse in the short-term (Zach Lee isn’t as good as Dempster right now), but I think they have to look at the long-term here. I don’t think the Cubs want to be in this situation next year and there is a chance that Dempster would accept arbitration. I hope I’m wrong.

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  12. mb21

    I don’t like the idea of trading just to trade and if it were up to me I’d keep him and offer arbitration. If he accepts, fine. You’ve got a good pitcher at a reasonable price. That makes the most sense in my opinion. I think you and I are in agreement here. I’m just not certain that’s what they’re going to do.

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  13. mb21

    Dempster lowered the Cubs leverage here, but the Cubs have done the same thing by talking about being disappointed and the rumors that they want him gone one way or another. The Cubs did the same shit with Sammy Sosa.

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  14. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    The Cubs did the same shit with Sammy Sosa.

    Yeah, and Theo and company trashed Nomar on his way out the door in Boston too, so they are definitely not above it. But in both those cases, I think the teams felt they had to turn the casual fans against the player to justify a trade. Dempster was a fan favorite, but I don’t think people were going to turn on the team for trading him. They knew (for the most part) what the deal was. So there was no reason to trash Dempster.

    I just don’t get it.

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  15. GW

    Nothing in the behavior of the front office to date suggests they would be at all concerned about a 1/12 deal on the 40% (or whatever) chance he accepts.

    I think they will trade him because no matter how depressed the market is now, they will get equivalent talent of the comp pick, and two to three years closer to the majors, at that.

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  16. GW

    @ mb21:

    Oh, now you’re starting to believe these anonymous gms? (dying laughing)

    The reports I believe suggest they offered something like 100M+ to a bunch of fringy cubans this past offseason because of the limited availability of young talent. I have no doubt they will offer 12 more on the chance of getting another pick. That is unless Dempster makes it perfectly clear that he will definitely accept, which I doubt. (As you should, if you think he’s going to get 3/40.)

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  17. mb21

    I think he’ll get 3/40, but I don’t have any idea what he’ll do. Let’s not pretend that Dempster isn’t in a unique situation here. Let’s also not pretend that you don’t even think he’ll get Lilly money, which is less per year than he’ll get if he sticks around the Cubs. I’d bet that Dempster would take 3/40, but I wouldn’t bet much on that. It’s not that I’m not confident he wouldn’t. I do think he would, but I think there’s a decent chance he wouldn’t. Family is a big reason. If he gets the option to return to Chicago for another year I can easily see him taking the deal and then retiring or maybe pitching on the south side. Dempster’s situation is unique enough that I don’t think the normal “he’ll take the most money” necessarily applies to him. It might. There might be a 90% chance he’s gone, which I think the Cubs would need to offer arbitration. Maybe you’re right at 40%, but all of this ignores what’s most important: cubs want him gone.

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  18. mb21

    If Dempster was just about any other player I’d say there’s almost no chance he accepts, but his daughter’s situation makes him different from other players. Because of this, I’m far less certain he’d decline than I am for other players.

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  19. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    I think Dempster goes to the White Sox. Same town and apparently they were crazy for Greinke. Dempster is a weirdo if he won’t take a trade to them.

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  20. Rizzo the Rat

    mb21 wrote:

    I think he’ll get 3/40,

    I’m no expert, but that seems high for a 35-year-old with injury risks and a roughly league-average projection.

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  21. mb21

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    I hadn’t thought of the injury risk at this point. I think teams overvalue ERA but considering 3 DL stints in 2 years 3/40 is a stretch. I think the value of the win increases to at least 6 million because of the CBA. Maybe something like 2/24 with a 3rd year team option for $10-11 million.

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  22. mb21

    According to Matt Swartz, the win value last year was over $6 million and he expect it to be about $6.7 million or so starting next year. I don’t know if I believe it, but I don’t necessarily not believe it either. I think Beyond the Box Score also showed the win value to be in the $6-7 million range. I don’t know. It’s interesting.

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  23. SVB

    Couldn’t the Cubs try to trade Dempster AFTER he accepted arbitration, but before the season started, or is that against the CBA? I realize they’d still have to get his permission because of 10 & 5.

    I’d tell Dempster: If we can get something decent now, we’re going to offer you arbitration and then we are going to try to trade you after that (assuming that’s allowed).

    Someone (GW?) made a point that Dempster’s agent should be begging him to accept a trade now, because his value tanks if the Cubs offer him arb. I forget the exact argument, but I remember thinking it made a lot of sense.

    I go with a decent trade or arb.

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  24. mb21

    The Cubs could do that, SVB, but his value won’t tank. We’re talking about teams that gave up 1st round picks for non-ace relievers. In the new system fewer picks will be given up, which is one of the reasons why free agent spending will increase. The other reason it increases is because less money is being spent on amateur talent leaving more to spend on free agents.

    Whatever amount Dempster would get docked for the team losing an arb pick, he’d not come close to noticing considering the additional money that will be spent on free agents. Say this time last year we’d expect a 3/30 deal for him while the team lost a pick. I’m making numbers up now and they apply to any player. The team would still be willing to pay the same amount (after all, they were losing picks last year too and losing them on lesser quality players). The team would then also have more to spend since they spent less on amateur talent. His value doesn’t tank any more than Joe Releiver’s value tanked when he was a type A free agent. Teams signed non-closer relievers who were type A free agents which cost them draft picks.

    It doesn’t increase his value. You’d rather not have a team lose a pick if you’re entering the free agent market, but it’s not going to make much of a dent. If at all.

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  25. mb21

    I’d also go with good trade or arbitration. The only possible way I’m trading Dempster for the equivalent of a comp pick is if the other team pays all his salary. I wouldn’t even consider paying a dime and getting that little in return. I’d be happy to offer arbitration and if he declines you get the draft pick. If he accepts you get him for another year at a decent price.

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  26. Rizzo the Rat

    So… are the Pirates going to actually make the playoffs? I’m still wrapping my head around this. I still half-expect a spectacular collapse like last year’s.

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  27. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    I like that after a week of bullshit in the media and with the Cubs and Dempster, a bajillion posts about the situation, and this post and 35ish comments later, the conclusion is that “it could go either way” (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  28. Rice Cube

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    It would be epic. Right now they have the third best record in the NL and have the first wild-card spot. Two-game cushion on ATL, at least four games on the closest challengers. There’s still plenty of time for a collapse, obviously. I think at worst they finish over .500 even if they miss the playoffs. B-Ref says they’re outperforming their pythag by three games.

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  29. josh

    I missed the game today, because I’ve been packing to move (we’re moving to Urbana, a whopping 4 miles away). But I see that the Cubs won and that Sori hit a tripple and that no trades have happened. I trust everyone has been getting their hopes way, WAY up, anyway.

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  30. josh

    I’m rooting for the Pirates because the only thing I fucking hate more than the Reds is the motherfucking Cards.

    I’m sorry for the outburst. I hope you can all forgive me.

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  31. Rizzo the Rat

    Also, if the Pirates make the playoffs, their manager wins Manager of the Year, whoever he is. (I think it was his idea for McCutchen to have a great year.)

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  32. Rizzo the Rat

    Ike Davis had 3 homers today, taking his season total up to a robust 20. Too bad his OBP is .281.

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  33. josh

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    He should fucking win anyway. I remember when the Pirates traded Nate McLouth. Ron Santo accused them of being a Triple A team and was downright angry that they had traded him. But I think they did a good job of trading McLouth at peak value.

    Wait, fangraphs is telling me that McLouth is playing for the Pirates again? WTF?

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  34. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    Oh okay, I couldn’t remember hearing anything about him, but for all I know the Pirates are running Sammy Sosa out there, or something. I don’t really care about the Pirates, so long as the Cards don’t win.

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  35. mb21

    @ Raymond Robert Koenig:
    True, but it’s essentially the same process. In order to collect draft picks you have to offer a contract, which was true before. The difference now is that the contract is a one-year guaranteed offer for the average of the top 125 salaries the year before whereas the salary in previous years would either be agreed upon or settled by an arbitrator.. I should call it something else, but sticking with what people know just seems to be easier.

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  36. Dick McCheesedoodle

    @ josh:

    Shit D-Wright is having almost as good a year and he’s white. I predict McCutchen loses.

    Great point, brother!

    Now please come help me scrub these NL MVP record books where 8 of the last 10 winners have been not white. If that kind of information gets out, this would KILL our case.

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  37. Suburban kid

    “Shit D-Wright and MC Dick Cheese” sounds like a rap duo from 1986. I’ll have to bust out my comprehensive collection of 12″ singles to make sure it isn’t.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    RedSox send top scout Gary Hughes to see Josh Johnson’s final start until the deadline Scouting tix sold out Despite ridiculous asking price— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) July 29, 2012

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  39. Mercurial Outfielder

    We wlll have to go a long way to summon the amount of angst about the Cubs that Rany has about the Royals. (dying laughing)

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  40. Mercurial Outfielder

    Brett Jackson has struck out twice as many times as Vitters, and also walked almost twice as much.

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  41. Mercurial Outfielder

    Kyler Burke got hammered again last night. I think that experiment is nearing an end.

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  42. Mercurial Outfielder

    I really have no idea how Soriano gets around the bases as well as he does. He must live in the whirlpool in between games.

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  43. Mercurial Outfielder

    With 15 scouts in attendance, Josh Johnson’s line: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 4 K. Cue stupid “does he have the makeup to pitch in big games” questions.

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  44. Rizzo the Rat

    Looks like Wainwright discovered LaHair’s weakness on breaking balls. Let’s hope he doesn’t tell anyone.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    His OPS dropped ~.400 in May, has dropped ~.100 each month since. K:BB has ballooned, too, despite 252 of his 302 PA being against RHP.

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  46. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rizzo the Rat:

    (dying laughing), I’m guessing if Rizzo weren’t around and LaHair was doing this every day, that would be the exact mantra from the fans. It’s too bad, really. Would’ve been nice if LaHair could have given them a decent, cheap corner OF option for a couple years. Also, 13 XBH in March/April. 13 XBH total since then.

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  47. Mercurial Outfielder

    Put another way, LaHair had 13 XBH in his first 70 PA; 13 XBH in 232 PA since then.

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  48. Aisle424

    Hopefully LaHair can still adjust back to what the league is doing to him now. We knew his hot streak wan’t going to continue, but how he reacts to it will show whether he can be decent over time or not. But he is looking like Brant Brown 2.0.

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  49. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:
    Yeah, the odd thing is that his GB/FB and LD% have stayed about the same. K:BB has ballooned and HR/FB has dropped off the table.

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  50. Rizzo the Rat

    Has anyone ever been a MLB All-Star one year and an All-Star in Japan the next? Not that I’m thinking of anyone in particular…

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  51. Mercurial Outfielder

    Watching all this NL strategy this inning has been fascinating. Getting to watch Skip Schumaker bat for a pitcher is what the game is all about.

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  52. Suburban kid

    I like how WGN’s camera caught Crempster’s beard turning grey as he languishes in the Wrigley dugout spitting seeds.

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  53. Rizzo the Rat

    @ josh:
    He doesn’t have the power you want from a corner OF, or the speed for a CF. He has some value, but I don’t see him as an everyday starter (especially against LHP’s).

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  54. WaLi

    My wife is stuck in a foreign country (Myrtle Beach, SC). She was supposed to be on a flight for work to Springfield, IL over 6 hours ago. Unfortunately this airline (Vision) had two planes with mechanical failures Friday and Saturday, so folks who had a flight to Indy on Friday and Louisville on Saturday (I think) haven’t been able to fly out. So I guess they are now chartering two planes from Miami to fly over foreign territory to Myrtle Beach. One will go to Indy, one to Louisville. The one that goes to Indy will then return to Myrtle, pick up the Springfield folks, and fly back to Springfield.

    And 30 minutes ago a storm rolled in delaying flights another hour (dying laughing).

    I feel like this airline is run by the Cubs.

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  55. Rice Cube

    WaLi wrote:

    I feel like this airline is run by the Cubs.

    Is the pilot’s name Bryan Crempster?

    Myrtle Beach is actually kind of fun. There’s a Medieval Times there (or there used to be) and that was a blast, though not as cool as what they showed in “The Cable Guy”.

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  56. mb21

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    It’s a reasonable amount of money though. The Cubs could kick in some money too. Teams are always looking to add some depth this time of year so I think he could be traded. Not that the Cubs will get anything. They won’t.

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  57. josh

    The Cubs aren’t going to trade anyone are they? This team can’t even do the one thing we’ve all been looking forward to right.

    *Depressed*

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  58. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ josh:

    Ryan Dempster was blindsided by the trade deadline and has summarily suspended all trading.

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  59. Mercurial Outfielder

    2 more K’s for Jackson so far tonight. That makes 150 for the year. In less than 500 PA.

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  60. mb21

    @ josh:
    I’m sure they’ll trade someone, but they won’t be getting much in return. I figure in 42 hours they’ll either have a few prospects who aren’t any good or they won’t. Needless to say, I’m not that excited about getting a few prospect who aren’t any good. (dying laughing)

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  61. GW

    Personally, I want the Cubs to trade for this guy, just so I can see Chicago fans recoil in disgust when they hear about the deal.

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  62. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    True, but Dunn is in the majors, too. If we apply the expected 3-5% jump in K-rate to Jackson, he’s King at a 37-39% clip, which puts him a bit above Dunn (35%).

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  63. Chet Masterson

    Dillon Maples on the hill tonight!

    Not a great start so far before finally getting his shit together.

    AZL Reds Bottom of the 1st

    Brent Peterson walks.
    Humberto Valor hit by pitch. Brent Peterson to 2nd.
    With Tanner Rahier batting, Brent Peterson steals (9) 3rd base. Humberto Valor steals (8) 2nd base.
    With Tanner Rahier batting, wild pitch by Dillon Maples, Brent Peterson scores. Humberto Valor to 3rd.
    Tanner Rahier walks.
    Adam Matthews strikes out swinging.
    Jhimmy Lopez grounds into a double play, shortstop Carlos Penalver to first baseman Trevor Gretzky. Tanner Rahier out at 2nd.

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  64. CarneHarris

    They’ve preferred to trade him all along, but they won’t trade him for nothing. Sets a bad standard of dealing with other teams. If they can’t trade him for value or close to it, which they will imo, they’ll offer him arbitration because the %’s say he’ll decline and they’re all about the percentages. Even if he takes the one year deal, which he won’t, they get a below market value starter who at best will give us something back next deadline and at worst, isn’t taking a roster spot from our starting pitcher poor system.

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  65. WaLi

    GBTS wrote:

    I am a huge fan of Rizzo.

    Your post was so good I stopped it short.

    When I first saw him I thought his stance was a bit funny looking. Not funny like a clown, but you know, funny, the way he stands.

    But I’m no expert on batting stances by any means.

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  66. mb21

    @ GBTS:
    I figure any stance that’s all that much different from what we typically see could lead to troubles in one way or another, but until it does I wouldn’t worry about it.

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  67. pinetar

    @ mb21:

    His stance while unorthodox solved his long swing issues. He now takes his hands back to load up and is quick unloading them. I’m with you until a problem is exploited no need to worry. I just don’t see to many holes with so few moving parts.

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