A cursory glance at the Cubs' roster tells you a lot about the makeup of this team. They look be to a middling rotation, a middling bullpen, and a bottom-third offense. That's a good enough team to win 73-75 games (which would be a dozen or so win improvement); not the worst team in baseball, but not a good one either. I think that even the most optimistic of us (like a dmick-type Cubs fan) realizes that at some point in the season, the Cubs are going to sell off as many assets that make sense as possible. Who could those assets be?
Category #1: Overpriced, but Productive
This is where Carlos Marmol and Alfonso Soriano fall. Marmol makes $9.8 million, which is pretty ridiculous and one of the remaining artifacts of the Hendry Era. I didn't hate the idea at the time, and I can't pretend to know what payroll limitations Hendry was under, but here we are nonetheless. Marmol is a great bet to be traded, and it's not unlikely to happen before the season starts either. The Cubs will likely eat a fair bit of it and get a lottery ticket arm in return.
Alfonso Soriano is the other stamp on the Hendry Era that lives on. Soriano has, in fairness, been about as good as advertised during his tenure with the Cubs; his contract gave many fans an unfair expectation of his skillset. Before the Cubs, his OPS+ was 115, and on the Cubs it was 113. He's due for a steep decline in the near future, but the Cubs could get a mid-15 prospect in a team's system if they ate enough money (and all signs point to a willingness to take on lots of salary).
Category #2: Expiring Contracts
Nate Schierholtz was the biggest offensive signing of the season, which tells you exactly how competitive the Cubs think they are this season. He was brought into platoon at RF with Scott Hairston (our other big "get"), but he doesn't actually have an advantage either way: he's definitionally mediocre against both hands. He does have a higher BABIP against LHP (.343 to .300) and a lower OPS against them also (.732 to .708), so theoretically you expect some erosion in his skills against lefties. However, he's just average against righties anyways, so his value is strictly just injury-replacement at the deadline. Market and injuries will 100% define his value in a trade, but I can see him being as valuable as a 4-7 org guy in the best circumstances.
Scott Feldman is another one-year "prove it" deal. He's not the greatest pitcher in the world, but serviceable back-end types moving to the NL can catch some magic now and again. In the best case, he's slightly less useful than Paul Maholm in a trade (he has no option year), but I'd imagine that he'll reach that level of value safely. He's going to get every chance to start this year, and his peripherals have improved even if his standard stats haven't. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Feldman signing turns out to be the best move Hoyer made this year.
Scott Baker might not throw another pitch for the Cubs. If that's the case, the Cubs effectively burned 5.5 million. However, it's far from certain that Scott #2 is cooked. He was quietly phenomenal in 2011 (of course, that's a TJS and 2 years ago), and his peripherals indicate tons of talent (lots of Ks, not many walks), and I'm cautiously optimistic about what that means if he can get on the mound. It's very difficult to imagine what his trade value might be, so I'm not going to speculate on it.
Everything I said about Baker I can just repeat for Garza. At this point, I think the Cubs are probably better served trying to extend Matt, because it's hard to envision getting anything approaching "fair value" for him.
Shawn Camp was the MVP of the Cubs last year, according to Dale Sveum. He parlayed that honor into a huge 1.35 million contract this year. For comparison, the Cubs paid Dioner Navarro 1.75 million this year. Camp could net a live arm in a trade with a repeat performance of 2012. Anything more than that is a bonus.
Category #3: Talented and Cost-Controlled
David DeJesus is a reasonably-priced, reasonably-good CF/RF. He's due to make 4.25 million this year, and 6.5 next year. That's a pretty valuable trade chip. Not only is he likely to be among the better deadline options out there, he's actually an upgrade for plenty of teams that might not even have an injury. DeJesus could garner a decent prospect if the right situation presents itself, and the Cubs will almost certaintly extract some value from his trade.
Kyuji Fujikawa is a huge question mark, but the elder Japanese closer signed for 4 and 5.5, which means he could be very attractive in a trade at the deadline. Japanese pitchers have a tendency to overperform in the first year, which could also be to the Cubs' benefit. I'm not sold on Fujikawa being traded at all (for reasons even I don't know), but it's feasible to envision a scenario in which it does happen.
Sure, you can throw Carlos Villanueva in here. He's making 5 and 5, which is reasonable. I don't think he's going to be anything special for the Cubs, but hey, if you need a warm body to soak up innings…
Scott Hairston is a lefty-killer. Pieces like this get traded for unexpected returns every so often, so don't sleep on him. For that to work, though, he's got to OBP over .299. Come on, Hairston. I know you can do it.
Category #4: "Foundational" Pieces
I'm not sold on Darwin Barney being anything more than an excellent backup MIF in the future (I imagine many front offices share my view). There just isn't enough value to a glove that's attached to a bat that will optimistically flirt with the .300 wOBA line. The Cubs likely value defense pretty highly, and another team might share that view. Depending on the scenario (perhaps a high BABIP plus a modest progression in power), the Cubs might be able to flip Barney for some real prospects (and his great contact skills ensure that he'll make good use of a BABIP swing in his favor). The Cubs have flirted with the idea that Barney is a definitive part of the future. All it takes is one sucker at the table to change that, though.
Jeff Samardzija is about as difficult a pitcher to project as you're going to find in baseball this year. He's got the tools to be a legitimate #2 (he throws gas, has a great fastball, and a plus splitter). He's also got a tendency to leave balls high in the zone, where they get CRUSHED. Samardzija isn't a great extension candidate, but another team might not see it that way. He's cost-controlled for the next few years with a skillset scouts can dream on. In a trade, Shark could net a huge prospect. If James Shields is worth Wil Myers plus, Jeff Samardzija is worth more or less the same amount – but only if he continues at his 2012 pace. I think there is a real shot that Shark gets traded for a HUGE package this year if extension talks prove less than fruitful, and the Cubs will definitely be looking for impact arms in return.
Everyone else on the Cubs roster is either a "foundational cornerstone" that will require an unlikely offer to move (Castro or Rizzo), pieces that just don't make sense to trade (Castillo, Russell) or are just flotsam/jetsam that won't get much in return (Navarro, Clevenger, Valbuena, Stewart).
Comments
Going back to the last thread. If baseball had the concussion problems that the NFL has, they’d advise parents and adults to not play baseball until they’re 23 years old. They’d create an outreach program with the slogan of just say no to baseball. They’d switch from hardballs to tennis balls. Full body armor. They’d run commercials informing everyone of the dangers of the game, reduce salary to minimum wage and raise ticket prices by 300%.
The NFL? It’s no big deal.
One of those is unethical, but good for business. The other is stupid and bad for business.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m glad my optimism is finally starting to be recognized around this place. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Pretty good analysis here, Myles.
It’s kind of funny. I remember when there was talk about the Cubs extending Marmol. I didn’t like the idea at the time. I always thought he was overrated. Good, but not as good as he’d been. I didn’t even like the contract at first when it was signed, but it was actually a pretty good one based on his expected value so I’ve been OK with it.
There are arguments to be made, and I’m one who would make them, that about the only reliever worth signing to a multi-year contract is Mariano Rivera. There are a few others, but there are very few of them. Hendry’s biggest weakness, in my opinion, was regularly signing middle relievers to mutli-year, multi-million dollar contracts.
You take that away and free up that money, which is what I’m hoping this front office does, and you’ve got yourself a pretty damn good team. Hendry spent well overall, but spent horribly on pieces with little to no value. He wasn’t and isn’t the only GM that does that, but I’m hopeful the new FO does not. I’d much rather overpay for someone like Soriano than a middle reliever.
dmick89Quote Reply
posted this in the wrong thread
Bubbles was out of town last weekend so was not able to see Baez’s homeruns till today.
Good fucking lord kid can swing the bat. Reminds me of Rickie Weeks swing but faster.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Hadn’t thought about that, but that’s a good comparison. So are the Sheffield comparisons.
dmick89Quote Reply
My only concern with what I saw from Baez is that he’s still a see-ball, hit-ball guy. Imagine what he could do if he had the approach of, say, a Moises Alou.
MylesQuote Reply
He’s also ridiculously young and talented, so even if he never evolves his mentality he’s still got a shot to be a great player.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I worry about that approach being exposed as he moves up. It was in High A last year. His NIBB% was slightly higher, but still very poor (below 5%). His strikeout rate is awfully high. He’s younger than Brett Jackson was at the same level, but his strikeout rate is equally bad. The big difference is that Javier Baez cannot take a walk whereas that’s one of Jackson’s best skills.
It’s fine to acknowledge the potential he has. It’s tremendous, but he has a lot he’ll have to improve to reach it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I dont know if you can teach what Baez does. I think his floor is Rickie Weeks with his ceiling of Sheffield that stayed at SS
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Couldn’t that have something to do with the quality of pitchers he is facing? If he was facing pitchers who were “scared” of him, he would see more pitches outside the zone. I don’t imagine pitchers are taught to pitch this way in the low minors, but I really don’t know much of anything.
WaLiQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
At least Hendry wasn’t Ed Wade, who not only signed relievers to multi-year deals but actually traded real assets for them (dying laughing). Though I guess Kevin Gregg, but at least he was traded for another reliever.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
just think the kid is that special. Seeing those videos of him blasting Homeryns made me so happy.
Also, did Jose Ceda ever pitch in the show? Too lazy to look
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Under no circumstances is the floor of any player at all ever Rickie Weeks. The floor of Ken Griffey Jr. at the time he was drafted was not even Rickie Weeks. Bryce Harper’s floor is not Rickie Weeks. Not to mention, Weeks had far more patience than Baez has ever shown.
No matter what you think of Baez at this point, his floor is that of someone who never even reaches MLB. There is no way on earth it’s that of a well above average ballplayer. Combine the talents of the top 5 draft picks from last year and their floor is less than Rickie Weeks.
Let’s be reasonable here.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Do you know who you are talking to? bubbles is even more optimistic than you (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Rickie Weeks’ floor and ceiling are Rickie Weeks
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Is the floor of Rickie Weeks, Rickie Weeks?Edit: Fucking Gorilla Cock beat me.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Usually it’s the other way around
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
There’s a difference between being excited about someone with power and expecting WAY too much of a player who hasn’t even shown he can walk as frequently as Corey Patterson.
Baez has walked 14 times in his first 339 plate appearances. Only 13 non-intentional walks. In Patterson’s first two years after being drafted, he had over 1000 plate appearances and walked in nearly 50% more frequently than Baez. For Patterson, that was already including an entire season at AA. Felix Pie walked twice as frequently at the same age and same levels in over 1000 plate appearances.
dmick89Quote Reply
Crazy that Lohse is still a FA.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Are teams just afraid of losing that compensation pick, or is a combo of teams that need a pitcher have a early pick that they’d lose, and those without the early pick don’t need him?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Ughhhh. Bubbles is an optimist. Always and forever
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
His age isn’t doing him any favors either.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
They have drugs for that, though.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I think any prospect looks special when they hit home runs and they have the pedigree of a being a high draft pick.
EdwinQuote Reply
Sorry bubs, no offense intended. Just thought that was funny. Rickie Weeks would be a nice outcome for Baez.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’d be pretty happy if he reached his floor.
dmick89Quote Reply
This seems like a fetish film the Alien Pizza Hut MILF would enjoy.
Aisle424Quote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
Keith Law said on Twitter the other day that he thinks Lohse and Boras are setting his asking price too high and even if you removed the compensation pick aspect, he’d still be unsigned.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, after I posted that, I read this:
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Cubs lose (game one of the day), but Castro hit his first HR of spring.
WaLiQuote Reply
Lohse has undoubtedly been hurt by the compensation system so I was thinking about something they could do to “fix” it. The required offer in order to receive compensation is about $12 million. Not that this would solve the Lohse problem because he’s looking for $45 million or more, but you could only award the compensation pick if the player then signs a contract X% more than the compensation offer and higher. Something like 10%. So a player could sign a 1-year deal for $13.2 million and the other team wouldn’t be awarded a compensation pick. Anything over that and the team gets a pick. This would give Lohse and other teams the option of taking a one year deal at a cheaper rate than he’d hope to get. Baseball doesn’t win by having a quality starting pitcher still unsigned more than halfway through spring training.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I really like this idea
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
MLB will get to this issue after they have tired of the steroids issue, which will probably be 2078.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs on MLB.tv, Baez in lineup
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Samardzija hit a homer off Garland. How about dem apples.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Samardzija is also serving up batting practice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
One might say that the opposite. This experience might make players less likely to hold out for higher salaries, thereby reducing salary and making costs a little lower. That might (cough) lead to slower ticket price hikes.
SVBQuote Reply
I know dmick and Myles are all gung ho about the Cubs this year, but I feel like they are singing this tune without the bass or lead…
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIU4QNQiiac&w=420&h=315%5D
(Check out Berselius’ sweet beard in the background.)
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I’m not talking about salary. I’m just saying that it isn’t good for baseball to have a quality starting pitcher still unsigned. The first priority should be that the best players get mlb jobs. It is beginning to appear as though the new CBA prevents that from happening. If instead of Lohse it was Felix Hernandez unsigned, what I’m saying is more obvious.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah, I understand that. And if both were on my team, I’d rather see Lohse pitch than Brooks Raley any day. On the other hand, 3/45 + first rounder for a 36 year old number 3 starter? I wouldn’t pay that price. The draft pick may never pan out, but the pitcher is very likely to not be worth it in the last year of the contract, or any year of it. And since he’s a free agent, the signing team isn’t even paying him for discounted wins he provided under his last contract. So, the opportunity costs with Lohse are loss of a high draft pick that has a better shot than most of making the bigs, and wasting money on someone instead of being able to spend it elsewhere more productively.
I think it is good for baseball when ownership is smarter. They can put a better team on the field when all the players are more accurately compensated with contracts that run about the right length of time. If the CBA does this, it is a win. Without doing the WAR math, I’d say about 2/20 is about right for Lohse, max.
If he is signed after opening day, does the team lose its draft pick?
SVBQuote Reply
Cubs win thanks to Samardzija, who had a great game at the plate going 2-2, hitting a HR and a knocking in another.
WaLiQuote Reply
Yeah, that’s why mlb needs to make some changes to the rule. Even a simple adjustment like the one I mentioned would be ok. Baseball is better off with Lohse playing than not. And if that the first priority isn’t to have the best talent at the mlb level, then it’s a shame.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Pretty solid performance in the mound too. 7 k’s, 0 bb’s.
dmick89Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
If only we had Dioner Navarro batting in his place
MylesQuote Reply
2013 Cubs: Our players are Committed to allowing the pitcher to have the best day at the plate.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t like the rules either and like your idea, but If there was no 1st round comp pick though, would anyone be picking up a 3/45 for a 36 yr old pitcher? This just seems like a player and agent who priced themselves out of the market.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I think I wouldn’t pay that for him with the draft pick attached. However, Dempster got paid a bit less AAV by the Red Sox and he’s about the same age, just no draft pick tied to him. So then the question is how much that pick is worth in terms of a salary discount. I think the same thing happened to mess with Bourn and LaRoche. But these are not free agents in the mold of Josh Hamilton where you sign him anyway, damn the draft pick.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Lohse had a career year at 3.9 rWAR last year, age 33 season. He has never had a year above 2.5 before that. Let’s be generous and give him 3 for next year and standard .5 decrease after that (which would continue to be better than average for him). That’s 7.5 WAR over 3 years. That comes out to about 6$ M / WAR for a 45$ M, which is about right. But there should be some discount for a 3 year contract right? I think dm threw around 10% before so even if you think he will continue to be better than he has for his whole career, he would still be overpaid @ 3/45
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Note: That 7.5 WAR over the next 3 years would be more than half of the rWAR he has accumulated in his 12 year career (13.7)
I think Baez has a better chance of having Rickie Weeks as a floor than Lohse has of accumulated 7.5 WAR over the next 3 years.
WaLiQuote Reply
New aside
http://obstructedview.net/aside/poz-on-theo-and-the-cubs-way.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) at MLB. Now they’re suing Biogenesis, apparently because selling PEDs to players hurts their bottom line (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Posnanski on Epstein
http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/posnanski-epstein%E2%80%99s-cubs-winning-track-%E2%80%94-it-just-may-not-seem-way
MishQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Wali and rc did a better job making my point. I think the blame for Lohse not being on the field rests with his unrealistic expectations and hia agent not telling him this. Not with the union contract. Happens every year. Ask Jermaine Dye
SVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I love what Jeff Samardzija said. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
Keep in mind what players want and what they get are entirely different things. I’m not going to blame Lohse for trying to earn what he’s worth. Besides, my solution wouldn’t solve the problem for every player, but rather make the system more fair. Because if a player only earns, say, 13 million over a year after all is said and done, the team that offered arbitration doesn’t deserve the pick. IMO
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Me too. Especially the part about ditching his GF
WaLiQuote Reply
HBT has the full lawsuit:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/22/breaking-mlb-sues-biogeneis-anthony-bosch-claims-interference-with-contract/
It seems…dumb.
Rice in classQuote Reply
Randy Wells ———-> AAA for the Rangers.
/Sadface
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Lots of cuts today. Coleman, Parker, Bogusevic, Brad Nelson, Carpenter, Maysonet
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs are also looking at the waiver wire for a utility IF, so Lillbridge isn’t guaranteed a spot yet.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Baseball, baseball.
Baseball baseball.
But that could be the crippling depression talking.
joshQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
He had a good year that one year…
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Yeah, I know, but he was one that I thought had it figured out, and then hoped he could eventually turn it around, but alas.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
*Spoiler alert!* No Cubs will be turning it around.
The odds of any player turning it around, especially pitchers, is pretty low.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
And here I thought this blog was full of like minded optimists…
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
You are correct sir.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
WaLi wrote:
Even more correct.
joshQuote Reply
My mind has just been blown.
Our HR lady has been complaining because her area doesn’t have a water fountain that doesn’t have cold water.
The Facilities engineer eventually gives in and buys a new wall mounted water fountain. Fanciest one I’ve ever seen.
I see them installing it and I’m wondering, why is the contractor installing it so low. So low that the drain outlet is below the drain pipe. So I ask him… the answer I get is so it can be ADA accessible
.
I think, oh that’s great. We didn’t have a water fountain here that was ADA accessible before, it’s good to be in compliance.
So I look 5 feet to the left and ask “So who is going to carry the guy in the wheelchair up the stairs?”
Not kidding. The facilities engineer told the contractor to install it to be ADA accessible when there is no elevator to get upstairs!
*facepalm*
WaLiQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
The easiest part of any coach’s job.
MishQuote Reply
That sneaky bastard
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
MLB has contacted Graham Yost as part of the investigation. Word is they’re offering immunity to other ball players for info leading to his arrest.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
NO SNITCHING
http://youtu.be/73q9SBgcOYE
uncle daveQuote Reply
Looks like the probable opening day lineup out there today.
DeJesus
Castro
Rizzo
Adolpho
Schierholtz
Castillo
Valbuena
Barney
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/a-new-mexico-beat-writer-actually-quit-his-job-because-458421252
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Good thing he wasn’t a Cubs fan in 2003…
WaLi22Quote Reply
It was meant to be a new aside, but instead it’s new shit: http://obstructedview.net/aside/wtf-march-22-2013-wrigley-renovations-the-cubs-roster-and-for-some-reason-chone-figgins.html
Aisle424Quote Reply