The Cubs completed their 4-game sweep of the Giants and won 5 of their games this week. They’ve won 10 of 11 overall during this hot streak. Their playoff chances are looking pretty good at this point with a 3.5 game lead over the Giants.
They only picked up a game on the Cardinals this week, but that’s kind of irrelevant. There’s little chance they catch them. They did pick up half a game on the Pirates.
Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings
The 1st order winning percentage is calculated with runs scored and allowed using the PythagenPat method.
2nd order winning percentage estimates the team’s runs scored and allowed based on their underlying statistics.
The Cubs had been ahead of the Pirates in the 3rd order winning percentage, but now they’re also ahead in the 2nd order percentage. Too bad they don’t win anything for that.
3rd order winning percentage does the same thing 2nd order percentage does, except it makes adjustments for quality of opponents. It’s the best indicator, or supposed to be anyway, at estimating how good a team has played and how they might play moving forward.
The 3rd order RS for the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates is 461, 462 and 463. The difference between these three teams so far in this ranking is run prevention (pitching and defense).
Below are the rest of season standings with PECOTA’s projections. The Mets are now expected to win the NL East if we apply PECOTA’s rest of season projections to the current standings.
The playoff spots are looking a lot more solidified than they were a week ago. The Cubs have a pretty big cushion in terms of their current lead and their expected performance the rest of the way. The Cubs don’t make anything too easy so I don’t think they’re going to be running away with any playoff spot though it would be nice. Playoff chances from Baseball Prospectus is below with the Adjusted playoff percentage included, which is the percentage chance of the team reacing the Division Series.
|Team||Div PCT||WC PCT||Playoff PCT||Adj. Playoff|