Week 1 (April 4 – April 10)
- Monday, April 4 @ Angels: W 9-0 (Box, OV Recap)
- Tuesday, April 5 @ Angels: W 6-1 (Box, OV Recap)
- Thursday, April 7 @ Dbacks: W 14-6 (Box, OV Recap)
- Friday, April 8 @ Dbacks: L 2-3 (Box, OV Recap)
- Saturday, April 9 @Dbacks: W 4-2 (Box, OV Recap)
- Sunday, April 10 @ Dbacks W 7-3 (Box, OV Recap)
Injuries and Call ups: Kyle Schwarber tore his ACL, LCL and sprained his ankle in a collision with Dexter Fowler in Arizona. He's out for the season. Munenori Kawasaki was re-called from Iowa to take his spot on the roster. Quick analysis: this was the one position the Cubs could most afford an unfortunate injury like this. Jorge Soler will get the bulk of the playing time in LF for now. Javier Baez could take over when he returns from injury (hopefully this week). This is still a big loss for the Cubs. If we look at the projections, it probably costs the Cubs roughly a win or so, but Schwarber has far greater potential (realistically anyway) than either of Soler or Baez. I'd also expect quite a bit of La Stella at 3rd and Kris Bryant in LF, as well as a late innning defensive replacement for Soler. While it is definitely a loss for the Cubs, it's not the end of the world. They've got good options and they're still easily the best team in the NL Central, if not all of baseball.
Adjusted Standings (Baseball Prospectus)
PCT: Winning percentage
PCT1: 1st Order Winning Percentage uses actual runs scored and allowed to calculate Pythagenpat (similar to Bill James Pythagorean Theorem).
PCT2: 2nd Order Winning Percentage uses projected runs scored and allowed based on the team’s underlying statistics and then uses the Pythagenpat method.
PCT3: 3rd Order Winning Percentage is the same as PCT2 except it adjusts for quality of opponents.
Original article by Clay Davenport
These numbers don't mean a whole lot at this point. They'll take on somewhat greater meaning as the season progresses, but ultimately it comes down to actual wins and losses and not imaginary ones. I just plan to do this weekly and figured I'd start with it on week one. I assume most of you already know that, but wanted to point out that these don't much now. They're just fun to look at and give us an idea which teams are getting a little lucky and which ones aren't.
The Cubs had such a dominating first week that they may have even been a little unlucky. That's crazy. I'll take a 5-1 West Coast road trip any time.
Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus)
|Team||W||L||ePCT||Sim Wins||Sim Losses||Div %||WC %||Playoff %||Adj. Playoff %||WS Win %|
ePCT: The expected win percentage that BP uses in their Monte Carlos sim is the projected strength of the team.
It's early, but I really like seeing the Cubs playoff odds near 90% after one week. The Cubs are good at baseball and they're a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
Win Probability Added (WPA) Leaders
- Dexter Fowler: 0.46
- Anthony Rizzo: 0.40
- Kris Bryant: 0.18