Everyone here has heard of a Super Two player. Here is the necessary criteria for becoming a super two: at least 2, but less than 3 years of service time with at least 86 days of service in the immediately preceding season. In other words, someone who has 42 days of service one year and 44 days the following year would not qualify for super two. It must be 86+ days followed by 2 full seasons. That's no guarantee he'll be a super two. Of the players that have at least 86 days of service one season followed by 2 full seasons, only the top 17% of those qualify as super two.
Teams often try to avoid this so they can pay the player less money over 6+ seasons before he files for free agency. The only way they can guarantee the player isn't a super two is if he has 85 days of service or less in one season followed immediately by 2 full seasons. This year that would be July 10th, which is the All-Star game. Any player called up on July 10th or earlier who remains on the roster the next 2 years would be eligible for super two. He probably would not qualify since it's only the top 17% in service time, but if all teams are waiting longer and longer to call players up in an attempt to avoid this, that would be the date.
If the Cubs want to guarantee themselves Brett Jackson won't be a super 2 they'll have to wait until July 11th to call him up. Realistically, they could probably call him up in mid-June and he would not qualify. Anthony Rizzo already has 68 days of service time though. If he were to get the requisite 86 days this season followed by 2 full years, he'd almost certainly be a super two. He'd have 2 years plus 154 days of service time. He'd be only 18 days shy of qualifying for 3 years of service time.
If the goal is to avoid super two status, the Cubs won't even consider calling Rizzo up before the 2nd half of the season begins on July 13th. This way Rizzo would have fewer than the necessary 86 days of service time in one season. That's also the date at which they'd officially call Brett Jackson up to gaurantee they avoid him being a super two.
Rizzo is killing the ball in AAA, but Bryan LaHair is doing the same thing at the MLB level. ZiPS now projects a .353 rest of season wOBA from LaHair. This seems more than reasonable. LaHair has become a tough player to pitch to. He can hit the ball out of te park with ease to all directions. Pitchers will have to be very careful with him and they can afford to considering the Cubs lineup. I wouldn't be surprised to see a .360ish wOBA the rest of the way.
Because of that you can't just call up Rizzo and replace LaHair. At least not if he's playing well anyway. LaHair becomes an interesting trade piece for the Cubs. If or when they call Rizzo up, the 1st base job is his. You could try LaHair in LF. He played 14 games in the outfield last year and for the 2010 Iowa Cubs he played 48 in left field, 47 at 1st and 2 in RF.
ZiPS projects a .313 wOBA the rest of the way for Alfonso Soriano so given the choice between Soriano and LaHair it's pretty easy to figure out which of the two is better. LaHair's advantage may actually be so big that platooning the two would make little sense. And if the Cubs can show that LaHair can play a decent left field, he'd have more value in a trade. Or the Cubs could be content to have a league minimum left fielder for the next couple years while they suck. They're going to have a high paid player at the position who sucks anyway.
Brett Jackson's path to the big leagues is a bit clearer. If he's hitting well by the time the MLB All-Star game rolls around, he'll probably be called up. On the other hand, he's not setting the world on fire right now. He does have a .344 wOBA and that's good for a 105 wRC+. Looking at his triple slash stats he seems much less impressive (.233/.330/.419). I hadn't followed him much since the early part of the season when he was raking so when I saw that line I was surprised. I was also thinking about how less than average it is compared to the PCL, which has had an average of roughly an .850 OPS the last few years. This year his OPS is better than average thanks to lesser hitting. In fact, the league OPS is .750 and Jackson's is .749.
Jackson has cut down on the strikeouts some, but is still at 27%. It was 29% last year at Iowa so there may be no improvement at all. The biggest difference between his overall batting numbers this year is the BABIP. Last year at Iowa he had a BABIP over .400. This year it's a more reasonable .310. Jackson's BABIP has often been in the .350s and higher. This is the lowest it's been in his career and it is a small sample to this point, but .310 is probably about the highest level we could expect from him at the MLB level.
This is why I've always said that Jackson is going to have an ugly batting average for those who care about such things. He strikes out too much that he'll have to maintain a very high BABIP in order to have a decent batting average. The good thing for him is that even with a bad batting average he's still going to be providing league average on base skills.
Right now though, he some stuff to work on before he should even be considered for a call up. The Cubs can afford to wait and they will. Jackson isn't setting the world on fire and demanding he be called up. Rizzo is crushing the ball, but Bryan LaHair is 4th in MLB in wOBA (and wRC+) among players with 60 or more PA. Rizzo's wOBA in AAA is .477 while LaHair's is .489 at the big league level. Small sample size applies, but LaHair has been better and he's done it at the highest level.
I think we'll see Brett Jackson at the start of the 2nd half and Rizzo at the end of July when Bryan LaHair is traded to a contender.
Comments
What about Garza? Does anybody think the Cubs will trade him at the deadline? Between him and LaHair, the Cubs might be able to get a very good package of prospects in return.
MuckerQuote Reply
Did they change the Super Two threshold with the new CBA or did you already account for that in this post?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
That would suck, only because Garza has been the best thing about the Cubs already. Although I find Campana fun to root for.
joshQuote Reply
When can LaHair hit free agency?
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
B-Ref says 2018.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I think they’ll listen on Garza, but will hold on to him and collect the picks when he becomes a FA unless someone gives them a crazy package in return.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
36 is a great year to hit free agency (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, he’s definitely been the best thing about the Cubs. I’m not advocating for him to be traded. Just figured the Cubs would get a pretty nice return considering how great he’s pitched the past year and a half or so.
MuckerQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/30/lede-of-the-day-the-oc-register-on-the-angels/
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think they end up extending Garza before the trade deadline with the way he’s pitched so far. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Soriano released or benched at the time they call Rizzo up and stick LaHair in LF. They won’t be able to get the package they’d require for a cost-controlled lefty bat after simply half a season and he’s 29. I think they trade LaHair in the offseason, or just keep him in LF if that works out and he continues to hit. I think Dempster gets traded to NYY or BOS.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Agreed on Soriano. I’ll be shocked if he’s still a member of this team on November 1, let alone August 1
BerseliusQuote Reply
Hideki Matsui —> Rays
I didn’t know the AL had two DH spots. Luke Scott —> expendable?
Never mind, ’tis minor league contract.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
minor league update is saved. when you want to run it use it.
dylanjQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He’d be a bench bat even if he makes the ML roster, which seems unlikely if Brandon Allen provides some offense as the main LHB off the bench. Scott’s not going anywhere, but he also has some injury concerns. I don’t expect Matsui to come up unless someone gets hurt.
MishQuote Reply
Is there a website out there, like “spraycharts.com” or some such, that graphically tracks the path of every ball in play by a given player over the course of each season?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
You can probably find something like that on ocd.org.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I prefer the ofh.org…
Opposite-field hits are nice to see.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
The minor league deal part of it made the most sense after I actually read the blurb (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yes.
http://www.Isthereawebsiteouttherelike“spraychartsdotcom”orsomesuchthatgraphicallytracksthepathofeveryballinplaybyagivenplayeroverthecourseofeachseason.com
WaLiQuote Reply
How much revenue does a website get for one ad impression?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Oh, I thought this was Google.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://www.salon.com/2012/04/30/lessons_from_a_twitter_trainwreck/singleton/
MishQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
That website was not informative at all.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
*snort*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Tony Campana approves.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
uh, Concepcion .2 IP, 7 ER
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Needs more Energon cubes.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Nate:
(dying laughing)
Oops.
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Who paid $37 for Mike Trout in our fantasy league?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I’m guessing that’s not good (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
Better than Campana…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/30/reds-prospect-billy-hamilton-is-the-fastest-man-in-baseball/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I lvoe Bryan Lahair
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I lvoe cats.
WaLiQuote Reply
Minor league post up
http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-sabor-de-soledad.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
why did it take lahair so ling to make it to the bigs
georgeQuote Reply
Your suggestion that LaHair, so far, is having a better season than Rizzo is wrong. Rizzo has been playing everyday in the minors. Whether its a right-handed starter or a lefty, Rizzo plays. On the other hand, LaHair has been protected against southpaws. The Cubs have played 23 games (as I type this) and LaHair has started 17 games. He’s been sitting against left-handed starting pitching. At this juncture, LaHair has only 7 (of 59) at bats against leftys this year. I suspect LaHair’s production tails off dramatically against RHP (he’s not THAT good) and his overall numbers will drop as he starts to actually facing LHP.
TCQuote Reply