Between 2007 and 2011, Carlos Marmol threw 382.1 innings and allowed a ridiculously low 218 hits. He allowed only 21 home runs and struckout 540 batters. That's the good Marmol.
During those same years Marmol threw 23 wild pitches, hit 39 batters and walked 241 of them.
Despite a high walk rate, he still managed to have a higher than 2 to 1 K/BB ratio. He was very difficult to hit and when he did get hit he didn't give up many home runs. We've talked about how the home runs would regress as well as the BABIP. Both did, but he was still a good reliever.
Marmol has particularly struggled against right handed batters. It needs to be pointed out that overall Marmol has faced just 60 batters so that in itself is a very small sample. Looking at splits makes the samples even more useless. Righties have a .387 wOBA against Marmol this year as opposed to a .287 career wOBA. Lefties have a .352 wOBA and a career .294.
The reason righties have hit so well is because they have 1 home run and 1 double while lefties have 2 doubles, but no home runs. Marmol has been walking the world this year so both handed batters have OBP's over .400 against Marmol so far.
I had actually begun to look a little deeper into Marmol's struggles so I'm going to post the pitch f/x data with only a couple of comments.
| Year | Pitch | Count | Frequency | H. Mvt | V. Mvt | Mph | H. Rel | V. Rel | Spin Θ | RPM |
| 2010 | 4-seamer | 603 | 42% | -7.48 | -13.52 | 94.85 | -2.23 | 5.27 | 216 | 1,976 |
| 2012 | 4-seamer | 126 | 45% | -7.29 | -17.29 | 93.59 | -1.9 | 5.42 | 223 | 1,600 |
| 2007-2012 | 4-seamer | 3033 | 44% | -8.18 | -13.87 | 94.24 | -2.21 | 5.28 | 219 | 2,017 |
| Year | Pitch | Ball | Call Str. | Swings | Fouls | Whiffs | BIP | GB | LD | FB | PU | HR |
| 2010 | 4-seamer | 39.80% | 25.21% | 33.50% | 13.76% | 10.28% | 9.95% | 1.82% | 1.66% | 4.81% | 1.66% | 0.33% |
| 2012 | 4-seamer | 46.03% | 21.43% | 32.54% | 16.67% | 4.76% | 11.11% | 3.97% | 1.59% | 3.97% | 0.00% | |
| 2007-2012 | 4-seamer | 40.65% | 20.87% | 37.09% | 17.67% | 8.97% | 10.91% | 2.64% | 1.55% | 4.81% | 1.91% | 0.59% |
| Year | Pitch | Count | Frequency | H. Mvt | V. Mvt | Mph | H. Rel | V. Rel | Spin Θ | RPM |
| 2010 | Slider | 841 | 58% | 7.77 | -35.63 | 84.38 | -2.3 | 5.43 | 66 | 912 |
| 2012 | Slider | 135 | 49% | 5.96 | -37.55 | 83.78 | -2.01 | 5.41 | 49 | 847 |
| 2007-2012 | Slider | 3921 | 56% | 7.97 | -35.81 | 83.46 | -2.29 | 5.43 | 70 | 898 |
| Year | Pitch | Ball | Call Str. | Swings | Fouls | Whiffs | BIP | GB | LD | FB | PU | HR |
| 2010 | Slider | 36.03% | 22.47% | 40.55% | 12.72% | 19.02% | 8.92% | 4.16% | 1.78% | 2.14% | 0.00% | |
| 2012 | Slider | 45.19% | 20.00% | 34.81% | 12.59% | 10.37% | 11.85% | 4.44% | 1.48% | 2.96% | 2.96% | 0.74% |
| 2007-2012 | Slider | 36.85% | 23.72% | 38.64% | 12.60% | 14.54% | 11.53% | 5.13% | 1.94% | 3.24% | 1.22% | 0.18% |
I included 2010 because it was Marmol's best season. The swing and whiff rates are both down. The other noticeable difference is the percentage of pitches that are balls. We already knew that based on his 12+ BB/9 rate. There may also be something in the other numbers, but I'm not qualified to comment on most of them.
Marmol has never had good control, but his control is so bad this year that he just can't succeed. My guess is that this is just a horrible start and when Marmol returns we'll see the same Marmol we've gotten used to. A pitcher who has been overrated becasue of his strikeouts, but is a lot of fun to watch when he's on.
Comments
Assuming Brad doesn’t mind that I steal this…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Short version: Carlos Marmol is either putting clown shoes on people or wearing them himself. More of the latter lately.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
minor league thread is up when you need it. It was a long awaited good day for the system.
dylanjQuote Reply
So Dale Sveum says he did the Starlin Castro sac bunt to avoid a double play. How does that make sense? If you move the runns over from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd, then LaHair gets walked and you have 1 out, bases loaded, and Soriano up. Now a double play is still possible and it ends the inning entirely!
There needs to be a long talk between Thoyer and Sveum. Actually, it doesn’t need to be a long talk. All that needs to be said is “STOP WITH THE SAC BUNT!”
WaLiQuote Reply
Maybe Sveum doesn’t think teams respect LaHair enough yet to walk him intentionally. I can’t think of another reason why that scenario would make sense in his head. Because if he did think that LaHair would get walked, he literally is saying that he is cool with taking the bat out of his two best hitters’ hands AND giving the defense a free out.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I wouldn’t say it’s optimism. I don’t think Marmol is a very good closer. He’s a good reliever and maybe even a good setup man, but I wouldn’t consider him a good closer.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
He told Sullivan he was willing to let LaHair get walked to stay of the DP. His postgame comments last night are thick with the stupid.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
For those that missed it in the last thread, here’s the dolt in his own words:
ye gods.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Exactly. DP candidate up to bat with the bases loaded instead of letting Starlin, who frequently hits singles, get a shot for an RBI, and with Campy on 1st, maybe 2 RBIs. Starlin has already proven he’s not that great of a bunter. Why are you using a game situation to try to teach someone the art of pulling the bat back and taking a hack at it? The guy has shown he’s not that good at it, so you put him in a situation where he is sure to fail? Fucking ridiculous.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
And then after the game, refuse to acknowledge you mistake, double down on the stupidity, and toss the player under the bus.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I think Sveum has some bunting issues. Like deep, psychological issues, where he didn’t get a bunt down in 3rd grade and received an atomic wedgie that haunts him to this day.
GBTSQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
And then he goes on and insults Castro. I’m don’t care that Castro doesn’t know how to bunt. He has 4 sac bunts in his career, all of them came in his rookie season. You know why? Because he sports a .333/.349/.438 triple slash. LET HIM HIT!
If he takes a walk (which isn’t likely) then the bases are loaded for your best hitter. It wasn’t even a situation where you can say “oh I guess that makes sense”. It was a dumb ass move.
AND THEN HE DID THE SAME DAMN THING NEXT INNING!!
Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and he bunts!
WaLiQuote Reply
That DP had almost a -20 WPA.
The single that Molina hit that scored runs created less WPA than that. Rediculous.
Source: FanGraphs
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Yeah, tossing Castro under the bus for his (Sveum’s) mistakes is fucking despicable. I want this bunting, balding, wannabe biker out of here.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Not to mention he’d just bunted with Campana, so even the element of surprise was gone. It’s one of the dumbest, maybe the dumbest, thing(s) I’ve ever seen a manager do.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
It took the RE for that inning from 1.44 to 0.31.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Since it was late innings I wonder how badly it dropped the win expectancy. I figure with the Cubs being away team they would want to score as many runs as possible especially with a shitty bullpen, and not just to play for the one go-ahead run.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
I’d look but FG’s WPA charts don’t work too well with my phone.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2012-05-14&team=Cubs&dh=0&season=2012
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
DeJesus single: 43.1%
Campana bunt: 33.2%
Castro bunt: 52.7%
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
How is that possible? I thought Castro bunted into a double play.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
That’s the Cards’ WE.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Paul Sullivan @PWSullivan
Sveum not interested in debating ‘cybermetrics.’: “The bottom line is I’m the one that makes the decisions.” Exits, laughing. Touche.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304192704577404424241146562.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That suddenly makes more sense. I’m in a journal club right now and the paper blows.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Sveum is a fucking idiot.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Sandberg for Cubs Manager in 2012!
Something I enjoyed recently
PezcoreQuote Reply
That was fucking dumb. IF Castro happened to be the worst hitter on the team, then, maybe it’s justifiable. MAYBE. The fact that he’s in the top 2 makes it a godawful move.
Counterpoint: Ron Washington’s entire managing career.
joshQuote Reply
I still assume that this is Dale Sveum’s last season managing the Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-ortho-home-defense.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I certainly hope so. This guy has the IQ of a sack of hammers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think they’ll keep him around for awhile. But if the window starts opening again, he’ll be thrown out of it.
BerseliusQuote Reply