I started blogging about the Cubs after the 2003 season. Myself and a couple others eventually started our own blog, but even after the 2003 season the direction the Cubs were heading was obvious. They had just come within 5 outs of reaching the World Series and they returned what was arguably the best rotation in baseball. They had acquired Aramis Ramirez, had a young and talented Corey Patterson returning from injury, and had extra money to spend thanks to postseason earnings.
The Cubs didn’t really fail in 2004 like so many have said. They just got beat by a far superior team in the Cardinals who ran away with the division. They did cough up the Wild Card late in the season. Still, they won almost 90 games and once again returned that great rotation, young CF, and Aramis Ramirez. They also acquired Derrek Lee would return, as well as Nomar Garciaparra. The future was bright and there was never a doubt in which direction the Cubs would move in.
After a disappointing 2005 season there was a little more question than before about which direction to head, but the Cubs were still a team that could do just about anything if they only had a healthy Mark Prior and Kerry Wood for the 2006 season. That didn’t happen and they had a terrible season.
Early in the following offseason the Cubs spent huge on Alfonso Soriano so the direction was obvious once again. They didn’t acquire Soriano and pay him that money to contend just in 2007, but also in 2008 and after. They won the division in 2007 so they would only try to get better
They had what was probably the best Cubs season most of us have seen. Perhaps they had a better season in the late 60s, and maybe one could argue the 1984 or 1989 teams were better, but it was easily one of the best we’d ever seen the Cubs assemble. After back to back division championships, the Cubs would only try to fill some holes and get better in whatever way they could.
Well, 2009 didn’t work out, but they were still a team that held first place in early August. That 2009 team was talented and although my preference following that season was to blow it up, there was perfectly good reason not.
Jim Hendry had been the GM since I started blogging and there was never a question about which direction the Cubs would go. it was all about contention and every move they made was about that. As a result, it was really easy to write article about this team. It’s easy enough to evaluate decisions and see if they help the team meet their goals. It was easy enough to come up with ideas for what the team could do to help them out. There was a reason to be concerned about a player declining and writing at length about it. There was reason to be optimistic when a player performed better than expectations and to figure out if the performance could continue.
The Cubs goal since 2003 has been to contend and as a blogger it was easy to write about. I didn’t always agree with the decisions made. I thought some were pretty bad. I thought some were really good. I was wrong sometimes and I was right. It was an easy position to be in as a blogger.
Well, that’s not really true anymore. Jim Hendry is gone, the team only has an interim GM and we know he’s not being considered for the job. The team won’t have a new GM until some time in November. The team meetings will presumably be underway or completed by the time that happens. The Winter Meetings will be just around the corner. Aramis Ramirez is a potential free agent. The Cubs will find some way to rid themselves of Carlos Zambrano. They’re reportedly eager to also rid themselves of Alfonso Soriano. Nobody knows who or even type of player will replace them. Your guess is as good as mine.
The organization could decide that completely rebuilding the team is necessary. That would be understandable given the state of the organization. They could also decide that they can contend in the near future. Maybe they can’t in 2012, but there’s no reason they couldn’t contend as early as 2013 if they went in that direction. That, too, would be a defensible decision given the market size and money available.
What we have with the Cubs for the first time in about a decade is the potential for the organization to go in any direction. They could trade a lot of their players, call up some young players and further rebuild the minor league system through those trades and ameteur free agent signings. They could go all out and sign someone like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder and maybe even CC Sabathia. They could trade some of their top prospects like Brett Jackson and Trey McNutt for veterans.
This makes writing about the Cubs a hell of a lot more difficult. I’ve thought of things seemingly every day that I wanted to write about, have done a little research and then reached the conclusion there was no point to write about it. I could write all kinds of things, but I’d prefer for them to be relevant. If the Cubs are rebuilding there’s not much point in writing more words about what Fielder, Pujols or Sabathis could add to this team. There’s little point in looking over the free agents list, or the guys who could potentially be traded in the offseason. At the same time, I see no point in writing about who the Cubs could trade if they wanted to rebuild if they have no intention whatsoever of doing so.
Yes, I’ve posted trade value pieces here and over at ACB, but that has a dual purpose. First, it shows what type of value the player has and second, it gives us an idea of what we could expect if the team traded him. I didn’t start writing trade value pieces in March. I waited until the team was pretty much eliminated, which left rebuilding as a viable plan moving forward. Neither year it happened, but I’d like to think people learned something from them. At the very least, I learned something.
I recently wrote about Starlin Castro and the possibility of signing him to a long-term extension. Regardless of which direction the Cubs go, signing someone like that is a topic worth discussing. Signing him to a long-term deal would make sense either way. That doesn’t mean it’s the right decision and I don’t know if it is or is not, but it’s something the organization could do one way or the other. Signing Prince Fielder only makes sense if the team intends to be contenders soon.
I’m intrigued by the idea of signing Matt Garza to a long-term extension and may write about that in the near future. I plan to write more about the Cubs top prospects when the minor league season ends soon. I also plan to publish a new poll and actually publish the results this time. As for the Arizona Fall League? I couldn’t care less. It’s a hitter’s paradise and it’s just a small sample anyway. Sam Fuld turned into Barry Bonds in the AFL so that tells you all you need to know about the league. May as well play 30 games on MLB The Show and then act as if those stats are representative of what the player will do.
I have no idea what I’ll write about. If you haven’t noticed the amount of content on Obstructed View has slowed considerably. I’m not the only one having trouble figuring out what to write about. We started the blog at the end of March, but had a couple weeks to write several articles before we went live. In April we published 119 articles. We followed that up with 78 in May 71 in June and then just 65 in July. In August we published only 57 articles. By December we’ll be posting less than 0 articles per month. Hopefully the Cubs become more interesting by then.
Comments
It’s hard to write about a season like this. Last season was pretty tough too. I tried writing some, but you get discouraged, and — like you said — I had no idea was was relevant.
binkyQuote Reply
Figuring out what is relevant is the hardest part for me. I have all these ideas, but I’m not sure any of them are relavent so I don’t want to waste time writing them.
mb21Quote Reply
It may get easier to write stuff once you know who the GM is and can speculate on what he’s likely to do based on his intelligence and track record.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The end of this season can’t come fast enough.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]The end of this season can’t come fast enough.[/quote]
Gearing up for the playoffs myself. Go (insert National League representative here)!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It may get easier to write stuff once you know who the GM is and can speculate on what he’s likely to do based on his intelligence and track record.[/quote]Knowing who the GM is will create a lot of things to discuss anyway. A new manager will have to be hired, the GM will presumably state in some way what his initial intentions are with the club and so on.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Gearing up for the playoffs myself. Go (insert National League representative here)![/quote]I was thinking more about trade season. There really isn’t a team that’s going to the playoffs I much care about, unless the Indians squeak in.
binkyQuote Reply
Looks like we may see Dolis this month.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Looks like we may see Dolis this month.[/quote]Speaking of, have they officially called anyone up yet? I thought I heard Zonk mention LaHair.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I was thinking more about trade season. There really isn’t a team that’s going to the playoffs I much care about, unless the Indians squeak in.[/quote]
I’d root for the Indians if they made it in.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Speaking of, have they officially called anyone up yet? I thought I heard Zonk mention LaHair.[/quote]
I think LaHair is dressed and available.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, LaHair is up, but nobody else yet. Minor league season ends in a few days.
mb21Quote Reply
Also, we’ll be entering the last year of our contracts with OV, so we’ll want to really blog well so we can cash in as Free Agents.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Also, we’ll be entering the last year of our contracts with OV, so we’ll want to really blog well so we can cash in as Free Agents.[/quote]I’m just trying to prove I’m a team player and deserve to get my job back after coming off the disqualified list.
mb21Quote Reply
Only OV would back up the fact that there is nothing to write about with statistics.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m just trying to prove I’m a team player and deserve to get my job back after coming off the disqualified list.[/quote]
I think as long as you continue to not eat dinner, we can overlook some of your past indiscretions. You’re just an enthusiastic blogger who sometimes cares too much.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Only OV would back up the fact that there is nothing to write about with statistics.[/quote]
If you end up really posting less than 0 articles in December, is that considered below replacement level?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cashner is supposed to be back after this weekend. In the bullpen, of course.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]If you end up really posting less than 0 articles in December, is that considered below replacement level?[/quote]
How many posts does Alvin do per month? I think that can be a good barometer for what a replacement level blogger is.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think the Pics of the Day posts probably only count as reached on an error.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]How many posts does Alvin do per month? I think that can be a good barometer for what a replacement level blogger is.[/quote]
Although you have to think in terms of the quality of the article. A bunch of single articles aren’t going to be more valuable than two or three home run articles.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think the Pics of the Day posts probably only count as reached on an error.[/quote]
How is that weighted in the wOVA?
wOVA —> weighted Obstructed View Article
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think the Pics of the Day posts probably only count as reached on an error.[/quote]That’s worth more than a single. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Bob just mentioned Fangraphs when talking about Hanrahan’s velocity and frequency in which he throws the fastball.
mb21Quote Reply
Another day, another 1-4 for Castro.
ACTQuote Reply
Oh, and another error.
ACTQuote Reply
Okay, folks…whose fault was this?
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18716173
Harrison was still running on a line to beat out the single, so he could be credited with the double. Barney was backing up Pena. Castro looked down and didn’t cover 2B. In fact, no outfielder ran in to cover 2B. Dempster is slow as fuck. So…yeah, whose fault? (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Another day, another 1-4 for Castro.[/quote]He hit .323 for Aug, so he wasn’t going 1-4 every day.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Okay, folks…whose fault was this?
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18716173
Harrison was still running on a line to beat out the single, so he could be credited with the double. Barney was backing up Pena. Castro looked down and didn’t cover 2B. In fact, no outfielder ran in to cover 2B. Dempster is slow as fuck. So…yeah, whose fault? (dying laughing)[/quote]Why wasn’t Barney covering 2nd? Either Barney or Demp has to be on 2nd in that situation. That’s shitty. I must have missed that on the radio, I don’t remember them talking about that.
Maybe it was while I was outside or something.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Why wasn’t Barney covering 2nd? Either Barney or Demp has to be on 2nd in that situation. That’s shitty. I must have missed that on the radio, I don’t remember them talking about that.
Maybe it was while I was outside or something.[/quote]Barney ran over to first to back up the throw.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Barney ran over to first to back up the throw.[/quote]
That’s what he was supposed to do so I don’t blame Barney for this one.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Barney ran over to first to back up the throw.[/quote]Isn’t that RF’s job? Did Barney assume it would be an overthrow? I don’t know who’s supposed to cover 2nd when the SS ranges like that, but they must have a plan in place.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s what he was supposed to do so I don’t blame Barney for this one.[/quote]He’s supposed to leave a gaping hole at 2B? How does that make sense?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]He hit .323 for Aug, so he wasn’t going 1-4 every day.[/quote]Most of that is from early August, when he compiled a ton of multi-hit games. He’s been hitting around .250 since Aug. 9.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Isn’t that RF’s job? Did Barney assume it would be an overthrow? I don’t know who’s supposed to cover 2nd when the SS ranges like that, but they must have a plan in place.[/quote]
I think CF or P has to come in, but P usually just stands there and looks at the throw. SS should’ve kept his head up and ran over to 2B just in case. Oh well, comedy (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Most of that is from early August, when he compiled a ton of multi-hit games. He’s been hitting around .250 since Aug. 9.[/quote]I bet he’ll have another burst of production before the end of the season. He may just be that kind of hitter that gets a hit here and there, then just gets in the zone or whatever for a stretch. That’s been his pattern.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think CF or P has to come in, but P usually just stands there and looks at the throw. SS should’ve kept his head up and ran over to 2B just in case. Oh well, comedy (dying laughing)[/quote]
I think (and this is just me thinking out loud) either the C or 2B has to run to back up overthrows to first base. RF doesn’t have time to come all the way in to back up. SS should have automatically run over to 2B but didn’t. P usually just stands there (but they don’t need to get in the way of the throw so whatever).
Someone who’s actually played should field this one.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I really think the Cubs have an interesting opportunity on their hands with Garza. I can’t help but wonder what sorta hit his leverage will take if he finishes this season with fewer than 10 wins and an ERA substantially worse than it oughta be based on his peripheral numbers.
I’m pretty sure I’m in the minority for thinking the Cubs could easily compete for the division inside of 3 years, which makes the prospect of signing Garza to a 4 year deal an exciting one; I just happen to believe he’d pitch a lot of meaningful innings for this team before that contract would run out. And if a deal can be done for something like ~$45MM, Garza could turn out to be an incredible bargain. I’m very much in favor of a Garza extension. That’s the one move I hope gets done more than any other this offseason.
And FWIW– the more I think about it, the more I think CJ Wilson is the other move I’d like to see the Cubs’ next GM make more than any other.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Someone who’s actually played should field this one.[/quote]
I’m not some “you’d know if you played the game” internet poster, just a gym class hero. I’m fairly confident, the C and RF have a responsibility to be backing up their respective sides of 1B for a potential wild throw.
The 2B doesn’t really have any business back there. I’d say Barney should have been in the vicinity of his normal fielding position for that one.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
Upon further inspection, Soto was backing up the home plate side. Reed Johnson was, as Bobby V would say, not having fun out there.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
Jack, I think the Cubs could easily content in 2013 if they wanted. If they really wanted to just spend a ton of money this offseason they could contend next year. They could probably even backload the deals and keep payroll next year less than $150 million. That won’t happen, but the point is the team has enough coming off the books that they could contend fairly quickly.
mb21Quote Reply
Since he’s a free agent after next seson the projections are more useful than comparables so I’ll look into that this evening. Off the top of my head I think 4/50 is probably reasonable.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]I’m not some “you’d know if you played the game” internet poster, just a gym class hero. I’m fairly confident, the C and RF have a responsibility to be backing up their respective sides of 1B for a potential wild throw.
The 2B doesn’t really have any business back there. I’d say Barney should have been in the vicinity of his normal fielding position for that one.[/quote]
I haven’t seen the play, but from what it sounds like it’s the responsibility of the C or RF to back up in that situation as you say.
mb21Quote Reply
Just watched it. I’m going to post something on that one in a little bit.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/caught-sleeping.html
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t understand the point of this site. It’s just ACB with a different name. Ive been reading and I still like it; I just don’t understand the point since I ACB still is on the web
TitleQuote Reply