Using Baseball Prospectus rest of season PECOTA projections I figured it might be fun to see just how many games the Cubs are expected to lose at this point. Since this is OV and we're Cubs fans we do things in reverse order. We're more focused on the 2013 draft order and which slot the Cubs may be picking from. As such, the end of season standings are in reverse order.
All I've done is take a team's current record (through games on Saturday) and added PECOTA's rest of season wins to each team. Enjoy.
| Current Record | End of Season (Current + PECOTA) | |||||
| Tm | W | L | PCT | W | L | PCT |
| Cubs | 19 | 40 | 0.322 | 64 | 98 | 0.395 |
| Astros | 25 | 34 | 0.424 | 66 | 96 | 0.407 |
| Padres | 20 | 40 | 0.333 | 69 | 93 | 0.426 |
| Royals | 24 | 33 | 0.421 | 69 | 93 | 0.426 |
| Twins | 24 | 34 | 0.414 | 69 | 93 | 0.426 |
| Mariners | 27 | 34 | 0.443 | 72 | 90 | 0.444 |
| A's | 26 | 34 | 0.433 | 73 | 89 | 0.451 |
| Rockies | 24 | 34 | 0.414 | 75 | 87 | 0.463 |
| Pirates | 31 | 27 | 0.534 | 77 | 85 | 0.475 |
| Blue Jays | 30 | 29 | 0.508 | 79 | 83 | 0.488 |
| Orioles | 33 | 26 | 0.559 | 80 | 82 | 0.494 |
| Tigers | 27 | 32 | 0.458 | 81 | 81 | 0.500 |
| Mets | 32 | 28 | 0.533 | 82 | 80 | 0.506 |
| Brewers | 27 | 32 | 0.458 | 83 | 79 | 0.512 |
| Diamondbacks | 29 | 30 | 0.492 | 83 | 79 | 0.512 |
| Phillies | 29 | 32 | 0.475 | 83 | 79 | 0.512 |
| Indians | 31 | 27 | 0.534 | 84 | 78 | 0.519 |
| White Sox | 33 | 26 | 0.559 | 84 | 78 | 0.519 |
| Red Sox | 29 | 30 | 0.492 | 85 | 77 | 0.525 |
| Cardinals | 31 | 29 | 0.517 | 86 | 76 | 0.531 |
| Marlins | 31 | 28 | 0.525 | 86 | 76 | 0.531 |
| Reds | 32 | 26 | 0.552 | 86 | 76 | 0.531 |
| Angels | 31 | 29 | 0.517 | 87 | 75 | 0.537 |
| Nationals | 34 | 23 | 0.596 | 87 | 75 | 0.537 |
| Giants | 34 | 26 | 0.567 | 88 | 74 | 0.543 |
| Rays | 34 | 25 | 0.576 | 88 | 74 | 0.543 |
| Dodgers | 38 | 22 | 0.633 | 89 | 73 | 0.549 |
| Braves | 34 | 25 | 0.576 | 91 | 71 | 0.562 |
| Yankees | 33 | 25 | 0.569 | 92 | 70 | 0.568 |
| Rangers | 34 | 26 | 0.567 | 93 | 69 | 0.574 |
There you go. The projected reverse standings after 162 games. The Cubs earn the top pick in next year's draft with their stellar effort in 2012.
By the way, this is the better way to estimate what a team is on pace for. The Cubs are on pace for 98 losses and not 110 as Paul Sullivan would like you to believe. Saying they're on pace to lose 110 is like saying a guy who hits 2 home runs on opening day is on pace for 324 home runs.
If they do lose 98, that would be the most losses since I became a fan of this team. 98 losses would tie them for the 3rd most in franchise history behind the 1962 and 1966 Cubs team who each lose 103. They'd be tied with the 1980 team and one more loss than the 2000 team. For some stupid I reason I became a fan of this team the season after they lost 98 games in 1980.
I knew this team would be bad, but this is really bad. We're getting to what Aisle 424 predicted and I thought he was a bit nuts. Not to mention, if you factor in potential trades the Cubs may be lucky to lose fewer than 100.
The Cubs are expected to be about baseball's biggest sellers at the trade deadline, and some rival GMs anticipate that they may be willing to consider deals for almost anyone but their talented young shortstop Starlin Castro.
Cubs people suggest that may be overstating their coming sale a bit but do acknoweldge they expect to be in the middle of a lot of the talk.
The article mentiones the obvious candidates: Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol, Alfonso Soriano, Paul Maholm and they add in Reed Johnson. Soriano and Dempster have already apparently said they'd accept a trade and I'm sure Garza would love to get out of town. Trade Dempster at the break and you lose win. Trade Garza and you lose another and you're right at 100 losses. Damn.
Comments
I’m excited about trade season. It may be like a second draft for the cubs
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I am of the belief that the entire purpose of Dale Sveum is to turn the youngsters (Castro, Barney, Campana, Clevenger, Castillo) into fundamentally sound players. I’d expect the improvement to be in plate discipline. Fielding and Baserunning would be areas of interest.
He seems to have an inability to make baseball decisions or, from what I read, manage the media or the clubhouse. Svuem is not a bad babysitter, but the idea of him managing a team that could go to the playoffs mortifies me.
Though I feel his role is to develop, and not use, talent. I just hope that when the team is league average, a year or two from now, that Thepstien goes out and brings in Ryne Sandberg. He won IL manager of the year in AAA last year. Hell of an “F YOU” for him not getting hired.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Given how horrid the NL Central is, and how old the Brewers and Cardinals are, I’d be willing to wager that a .500 team wins the division within the next five years. It’s not just the Cubs. The division is full of small market teams and collectively blows. It’s like the AL Central, except nobody spends.
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I don’t know. When a team is losing, the manager gets the blame. When they’re winning, the opposite.
joshQuote Reply
I don’t think Sveum has lost the clubhouse based on what little I know about their dynamic.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know if Ryne Sandburg is an improvement. Of the managers that the Cubs have had in my lifetime, the only one that stuck out at me as being noteworthy was Lou Pineilla. Whatever it was about that guy, I felt confidence in him. Who knows why? I don’t. I’m sure it didn’t hurt anything that they went to two post seasons under him.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Lou did some really awesome stuff in 2009 that I enjoyed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know if Sveum is good or bad. My guess is he’s below average and has trouble sticking with any team as manager. I’m very disappointed in the swing happy approach of some od the cubs but I’m not sure if there’s anything much Sveum can do about that. I do like his defensive shifts though the value of doing it may be questionable.
mb21Quote Reply
Besides, that Q&A seemed to be focused around how much Sveum was yelling at them. Is that even the best way to motivate guys? Let’s not forget that for us, this is prime entertainment, but for Castro, Castillo, Samardzija, Dempster, etc., this is a job. It’s a job they had to work really hard and have a lot of things go right for them to get. It’s their dream job. It’s still a job. I’m a writer. When I was a kid I dreamed of working for National Geographic. Let’s say I got a job at Nat Geo and every time a magazine didn’t sell well or I had some structural problems with an article I wrote, my editor came in and screamed at me and told me I didn’t love writing enough and that my making a mistake was an insult to everything Nat Geo stood for, going back over 100 years. What would I do? I’d either burn out and quit or go work for some smaller mag, figuring a lack of prestige was better than getting yelled at every day. That’s just me. I don’t think lack of being screamed at is the problem with this team. That said, I’d like to see better OBP as well, but they don’t really have those guys. Starlin didn’t take a lot of walks last year, and he won’t take a lot next year or the year after. That’s never going to be his game, I don’t think.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I feel like the defensive shifts were devised independent of Sveum in MIL and he just brought it over as a copycat thing. I think he and his staff still have the respect of the players despite the losses and as long as he keeps the clubhouse in order and tries to instill the fundamentals, it doesn’t matter. As Pezcore and others have suggested, whenever they decide to contend, then they’ll worry about squeezing more wins out of the team.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
It’s not as if this is anything new, either.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
The guys who were good at taking walks still are. Castro is lower than his usual average, but that could be the internalized pressure of being the #3 hitter.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
In other words, I’m not seeing too many surprises this season in terms of walks.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I lean toward “null hypothesis,” personally.
ACTQuote Reply
100 mph grazed-jersey HBP. Lucky he didn’t take it off the ribs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aroldis Chapman is human.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jed Thoyer really knows how to build a team that can win the 1st pick in the draft
dylanjQuote Reply
The Pirates and Reds are tied for the NL Central lead now.
/bizarro
Rice CubeQuote Reply
We’re #1!!
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bottles goin off in the church, we broke the wine
slapped the pastor, didn’t know Pop had asthma
He pulled out his blue bible, change fell out his coat
Three condoms, two dice, one bag of dope
Oooh! Rev. ain’t right, his church ain’t right
Deacon is a pimp, tell by his eyes
Mrs. Parks said, “Brother Starks, meet you at the numbers spot
Heard you got red tops out, and I want a lot”
Shirley fainted dead on the spot
Two ushers slipped eighty dollars right out the pot
Oh shit!
/all comments will be submitted in the form of Wu Tang lyrics…for a little while.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
nu shite up
dylanjQuote Reply