Updated and early CAIRO projected standings

In Projections by dmick8927 Comments

RLYW has released the 3rd version of CAIRO projections and a very early simulation of the 2013 season. The Cubs finish in 5th place in the NL Central and win 73 games. They would also pick 7th in the 2014 Draft.

Reds 90 72 739 659 38.7% 8.4% 8.0% 55.0%
Cardinals 87 75 696 650 30.1% 8.8% 8.5% 47.4%
Brewers 79 83 708 736 13.1% 5.7% 6.5% 25.2%
Pirates 78 84 670 688 11.5% 5.3% 6.0% 22.8%
Cubs 73 89 641 706 6.6% 3.0% 3.8% 13.4%

My optimistic prediction was was of course much higher, but I did point out yesterday and probably before that I believe this team will win 72 games as they are right now. If everything goes well, they could reach the postseason, but a 13.4% of doing so isn't exactly a high chance. It's important to consider what SG said in the post about these standings:

As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless.  So view them in that way.

We might have a pretty good idea of what the Cubs team will look like, but there are still several teams that we're not sure of. As we get closer to the start of the season these won't be so useless anymore.

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  1. Aisle424

    MLB has Soler ranked at #42 and Almora at #39 on their Top 50 prospect list.

    They’re going through it on MLB Network right now.

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  2. Joe Mor(g)an

    SVB wrote:

    @ Aisle424:
    I thought that was Al, with hair.
    (Note no “basket” on the wall.)

    We used to call that Banks Boulevard. I think about 300-400 of his HRs were aided by those baskets.

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  3. Myles

    After replacing my BJ projections with ZiPS, and more or less distributing 6/11 shares to Feldman/Baker/Villanueva/Wood, a full share to Jackson, and 10/11 shares to Garza and Samardzija (innings-wise), I have a tentative projection of 80.78 wins for 2013.

    This is the “objective” value that I’ve attained (not precisely, as my WAR calculator asks you to estimate a player’s defensive and baserunning abilities). When I write up my prediction, I’ll likely include the “subjective” value that I think it will be.

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  4. josh

    @ Myles:
    It’s good that we nail down precisely how mediocre the Cubs will be.

    Actually, I really don’t care how many games they win, if they can just manage to play good baseball. Last season they looked outmatched in virtually every game they played. Yeah, they scored big now and again, but those times were few and far between.

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  5. EnricoPallazzo

    @ Rice Cube:

    The outrage would be so great it would create shortages. The government would only allow you to have outrage, like, every other day depending on whether your license plate ends in an odd or even number. We’d be on an outrage war footing, really.


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