The Cubs are done so there’s no more pretending they have a chance. They don’t. I don’t expect the Cubs front office or the players to give up. Not sure I really want them to at this point. It’s still early and there’s plenty of time to let the trade market develop. No need rushing into any trades. But that doesn’t mean we can’t talk about the possibility.
I already took a look at Carlos Pena and today will be Geovany Soto. As I did the last time, I’m only looking at the final two months of the season. I’m assuing Soto would be traded on July 31st. This means we could expect no more than 200 plate appearances from Soto after that point.
Soto’s rest of season ZiPS is currently .350 wOBA despite it hovering barely above .300. Soto is definitely not a consistent hitter and that may affect his value, but I have no idea how. We’ll say Soto is an average baserunner and fielder, which means he’d be worth 1.2 WAR over the final two months of the season.
Soto will be 2nd-year arb eligible after the season and then have one additional arb year after that. He’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season so any team acquiring him gets his service for 2+ seasons. Soto is 28 years old so he’s not getting any better. He’s likely to get worse over the remaining 2 years on his contract.
Typically, a player gets worse by around .5 WAR per full season. That would make Soto worth 2.7 WAR in 2012 and 2.3 WAR in 2013. Using $4.8 million per win this season and increasing by 7% each of the next two years, that makes Soto’s overall value $32.3 million.
Over the final two months of this season he’ll be paid $1 million. A decent estimate for next season would be $5 million and then $8 million the following season. The team trading for Soto would pay an estimated $14 million over the next 2+ seasons and receive $32.3 million in value. Soto may be a Type A free agent after 2013, but let’s say he’s a Type B free agent. That additional draft pick is worth $2.5 million. The overall value that Soto provides the team traded to is $34.8 million and they paid him $14 million.
In any trade, you’d expect in value the difference between those two figures. In this case, it would be about $24-25 million. This is what you could get in return:
Top 11-50 hitting prospect
1 top 51-75 hitting prospect and 1 top 76 to 100 hitting prospect
Top 10 pitching prospect and a Grade B pitcher
48 Grade C hitters 23 and older
and many other combinations
Something like a player comparable to Brett Jackson for Soto. Or Trey McNutt and another decent pitching prospect. You can check out John Sickels Minor League Ball and go over the top 20 organizational prospects and get an idea if you have a team in mind.
Soto isn’t worth as much as he was a year ago, but he’s still worth a decent amount. I doubt the Cubs trade him, but they should look into it.
Comments
Nice summary, mb.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s April…69th?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow, that’s a ton more value I thought for Soto.
MishQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Cubs unless Pena gets a hit here.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Leadoff double + passed ball to get man to third with no outs. Let’s see what happens.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Wow, that’s a ton more value I thought for Soto.[/quote]Same here, but i really think you can probably cut that in half. It seems Soto is either really, really good or just OK. I don’t see any team giving up max value for a player like that.
mb21Quote Reply
Kosuke is pissed that noodle-swinging Barney and DeWitt couldn’t drive him in from third.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Pena gave that ball a ride.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soto and Marmol are my hopes for who we trade. Although neither are actually going to get traded. If Soto does get traded, you let Castillo and Clevenger fight it out for the starting spot and sign a back-up not named after a fish.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Brewers drafted Boras’s kid.
MishQuote Reply
I’d like to see Soto, Marmol and Marshall traded. Anything else is just to save money, which I’m also fine with. Those 3 have real value. Marmol less than the other two because he basically signed a free agent contract, but he still has some value.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d like to see Soto, Marmol and Marshall traded. Anything else is just to save money, which I’m also fine with. Those 3 have real value. Marmol less than the other two because he basically signed a free agent contract, but he still has some value.[/quote]I’d like to keep Marshall because I don’t think he will cost much on the FA market since he doesn’t have the closer tag.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Some interesting stuff here from Muskat on some prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110608&content_id=20204384&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
I’d write something on Unobstructed Views if I had time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]I’d like to keep Marshall because I don’t think he will cost much on the FA market since he doesn’t have the closer tag.[/quote]Good point.
mb21Quote Reply
Nice bare hand play by the guy playing out the string at 3B.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Cubs loading up on RHP in these garbage rounds.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Arroyo can probably go 7 or 8 innings today at this rate. I think Dempster’s done after the bottom of the 6th.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Campana has a face finally, when did that happen?
He looks like a tool (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
Bob Brenly’s advice to new fathers:
“You can’t be a sissy.”
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Some interesting stuff here from Muskat on some prospects: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110608&content_id=20204384&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
I’d write something on Unobstructed Views if I had time.[/quote]Mostly just updates and speculation. Interesting that the Cubs were thinking about promoting Whitenack again before the injury. Also, one of the headlines said Vitters eyeing call-up. I hope to God that doesn’t happen. He’s finally figuring it out at AA, keep him there. Also, no mention of Austin Kirk who for some reason hasn’t been promoted to Daytona yet.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Campana found his warp drive.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Koyie is to be feared.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Campana found his warp drive.[/quote]He’s one fast little dweeb.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]He’s one fast little dweeb.[/quote]
Is he wearing his helmet like a wigger too?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is he wearing his helmet like a wigger too?[/quote]He just reminds me of a high school dweeb. Or twerp.
But I actually like the guy.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]He’s one fast little faget.[/quote].
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Round 38: RHP Casey Lucchese – College of Charleston
If his name is pronounced like the boot, his name is Casey lou-CAY-see.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
The A’s just selected a kid from my high school who is the kid of the A’s manager.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Bob Brenly’s advice to new fathers:
“You can’t be a sissy.”[/quote](dying laughing) did he say that?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Mostly just updates and speculation. Interesting that the Cubs were thinking about promoting Whitenack again before the injury. Also, one of the headlines said Vitters eyeing call-up. I hope to God that doesn’t happen. He’s finally figuring it out at AA, keep him there. Also, no mention of Austin Kirk who for some reason hasn’t been promoted to Daytona yet.[/quote]I thought it was interesting that Vitters could be up this season (same with Jackson of course). No chance McNutt comes up, which isn’t surprising considering his problems staying healthy this year.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) did he say that?[/quote]Len and Bob were having a long conversation about their fear of amusement park rides. Bob admitted he never liked going on them, but then when he had kids, he had to, because “you can’t be a sissy”. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Awesome start by Dempster.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m impressed by these Sooners: http://landthieves.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8327
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I thought it was interesting that Vitters could be up this season (same with Jackson of course). No chance McNutt comes up, which isn’t surprising considering his problems staying healthy this year.[/quote]
Why can’t McNutt come up for a few starts or weeks of relief work?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
It’s still April. Hope someone wants Kosuke.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
‘Duk on Vogelbach:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Power-hungry-Cubs-draft-their-very-own-Prince-Fi?urn=mlb-wp8896
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Why can’t McNutt come up for a few starts or weeks of relief work?[/quote]He’s not as bad as Vitters?
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-31749_162-20070068-10391698.html
(dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
BALK
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Woohoo balk! Cubs will take them anyway they can get them. Maybe they will actually pull through today?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Woohoo balk! Cubs will take them anyway they can get them. Maybe they will actually pull through today?[/quote]
The Reds still have 9 outs. Don’t get cocky.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It seems like the only days we can win are when the other team scores a bunch of errors. But whatever, I’ll take any ray of sunshine I can get.
joshQuote Reply
A balk should be a pitcher TOOTBLAN.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
So since that was a balk, does that run count against Arroyo or is it an error?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]So since that was a balk, does that run count against Arroyo or is it an error?[/quote]
Unearned run charged to Arroyo I think.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
A triple you say.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Here’s hoping Soto gets his act together in Philly or else Koyie Hill becomes our de facto savior (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The AAA CubsJohnson, Baker and Soriano will bebackin Iowa this weekend.Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]
Amusing. But wrong.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/08/rangers-draft-paralyzed-outfielder-johnathan-taylor/
Awesome.
The commenters…not so much.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Marshall —————————————-> still nails.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Amusing. But wrong.[/quote]
Correct.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Small sample size alert: DeWitt should not bat third.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oooh, another LHP from my high school, this time to the Twins in the 47th round.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/08/rangers-draft-paralyzed-outfielder-johnathan-taylor/
Awesome.
The commenters…not so much.[/quote]
Only saw two snarky comments in there – one was just making fun of Minnesota and the other was raising the (unlikely) hypothetical…didn’t think it was too bad at all.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Only saw two snarky comments in there – one was just making fun of Minnesota and the other was raising the (unlikely) hypothetical…didn’t think it was too bad at all.[/quote]
It wasn’t too bad. Still a tad inappropriate though. Probably why they got all them thumbs downs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess. I’m not one against inappropriateness, and in fact generally encourage it since people need to get over themselves and their self-righteous indignation. But I’m also out there.
But a good move by Texas.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
But a good move by Texas.[/quote]
Correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Lots of SF Bay Area kids being selected in these garbage rounds. Kind of cool.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Looks like Cubs don’t lose. No thanks to Zambrano. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Dude, NSFW.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Doug Davis blaming only himself inspired the Cubs.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Trade bait alert:
April-May-early-June Kosuke: .309/.423 /.407
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Trade bait alert:
April-2nd April-early-3rd April Kosuke: .309/.423/.407[/quote]
Fixed.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Fixed.[/quote]
Well done.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15664793
I really enjoyed the “Fuck you” swing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I will preemptively ask since I know someone’s working on this, but how many of these 50 guys picked by the Cubs actually sign?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I will preemptively ask since I know someone’s working on this, but how many of these 50 guys picked by the Cubs actually sign?[/quote]
2 or 288.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Trade bait alert:
April-May-early-June Kosuke: .309/.423 /.407[/quote]His SLG is still lagging well behind his OBP.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]2 or 288.[/quote]Amusing, but wrong.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]His SLG is still lagging well behind his OBP.[/quote]
He’s slugging .551 in June, so he’s seems like he’s putting that together too.
Kosuke’s value is at the highest it’s ever been minus his first month in the states. While I’d hate to see him go right now (he’s been my favorite Cub for a few years now), the Cubs should probably see what they can get for him.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]His SLG is still lagging well behind his OBP.[/quote]
Then I guess he’s going to have to have some 1-for-4 days with no walks and the only hit being a homer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Then I guess he’s going to have to not eat dinner 1 to 4 days with no walks and the only hits being a homers.[/quote].
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Then I guess he’s going to have to have some 1-for-4 days with no walks and the only hit being a homer.[/quote]
Cubs fans won’t be happy with Kosuke until he hits .340 with 25 home runs. If you point out that he’s possibly the best offensive performer on this team, they’ll say he doesn’t have enough RBIs and HRs. If you point out that he he’s getting on base at a fantastic rate and playing good defense, they’ll say that he’s still not good enough for his salary.
I feel a bit about Kosuke like I do for Zambrano. He’s a solid player that seems to get tremendous flak from the fans and media because Hendry dolled out a massive contract and produced unrealistic expectations. He certainly isn’t appreciated in a franchise and fanbase that doesn’t value patience and the ability to take walks. I’d almost rather see him traded to the Red Sox and win a World Series with them.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I really think the Giants should look into getting Soto and Fukudome as soon as possible. The defending champs need offense badly having scored the 2nd fewest runs in the majors so far this season but still manage to lead their division. Aubrey Huff & Tejada are killing that team. I could see Belt at 1B, Crawford at SS, Fukudome in OF, Soto at C with Huff & Tejada on the bench really helping that team make another playoff run. Then maybe allowing Posey to move to 1B next season with Soto behind the plate and Belt in the outfield with Fukudome leaving via FA.
The sooner the Giants do this, the better.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Cubs fans won’t be happy with Kosuke until he hits .340 with 25 home runs. If you point out that he’s possibly the best offensive performer on this team, they’ll say he doesn’t have enough RBIs and HRs. If you point out that he he’s getting on base at a fantastic rate and playing good defense, they’ll say that he’s still not good enough for his salary.
I feel a bit about Kosuke like I do for Zambrano. He’s a solid player that seems to get tremendous flak from the fans and media because Hendry dolled out a massive contract and produced unrealistic expectations. He certainly isn’t appreciated in a franchise and fanbase that doesn’t value patience and the ability to take walks. I’d almost rather see him traded to the Red Sox and win a World Series with them.[/quote]
No kidding! Kosuke got on base three times today and I think he only scored once because the guys behind him sucked it up. And that one run was scored on a balk (dying laughing)
The ironic thing is that one of the guys being argued as better than Fukudome was Darwin Barney, but Barney had a couple opportunities to drive in the precious RBIs after Fuke got on base and couldn’t do it. Twice with Kosuke in scoring position, and nothing. They have nearly identical batting averages but Kosuke gets on base like a hundred points better. It’s a very silly argument.
I doubt he gets much back in a trade, but it’d be nice to see Kosuke and especially Z win a World Series. Too bad it won’t be as Cubs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I really think the Giants should look into getting Soto and Fukudome as soon as possible. The defending champs need offense badly having scored the 2nd fewest runs in the majors so far this season but still manage to lead their division. Aubrey Huff & Tejada are killing that team. I could see Belt at 1B, Crawford at SS, Fukudome in OF, Soto at C with Huff & Tejada on the bench really helping that team make another playoff run. Then maybe allowing Posey to move to 1B next season with Soto behind the plate and Belt in the outfield with Fukudome leaving via FA.
The sooner the Giants do this, the better.[/quote]
As a quasi-Giants fan, I approve this trade idea (dying laughing) Especially when the first run of today was scored on a double by Matt Cain.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new banner image. Thanks a lot to Pat and 424.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]As a quasi-Giants fan, I approve this trade idea (dying laughing) Especially when the first run of today was scored on a double by Matt Cain.[/quote]Tejada could get released soon. Sandoval’s coming off the DL and he’s the least useful piece on the team.
Well, on every team.
Probably the end of his career – I can’t see anyone else picking him up, but maybe there’s such a dearth of third basemen right now that someone will take a chance on him.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]new banner image. Thanks a lot to Pat and 424.[/quote]Nice.
I think at least one of the fireballs heading for Wrigley should have the face of Quade on it.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Tejada could get released soon. Sandoval’s coming off the DL and he’s the least useful piece on the team.
Well, on every team.
Probably the end of his career – I can’t see anyone else picking him up, but maybe there’s such a dearth of third basemen right now that someone will take a chance on him.[/quote]
I thought Tejada was a stupid signing. Sabean doesn’t seem like the smartest of GMs and didn’t do as much as he could to ensure that the Giants would improve. Lucky for him the rest of the NL West is sucking it up, although the D’Backs are really surprising right now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]new banner image. Thanks a lot to Pat and 424.[/quote]
It was that or Ryno’s latest GIF.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]new banner image. Thanks a lot to Pat and 424.[/quote]
Love it, Ricketts would still find a way to charge extra for that unique fire experience at Wrigley. $1 Hot Dogs with a $2 Toasted Bun Charge and sticking Al with a $2 Frying Your Cheap Ass Bologna Sammich Charge.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought Tejada was a stupid signing. Sabean doesn’t seem like the smartest of GMs and didn’t do as much as he could to ensure that the Giants would improve. Lucky for him the rest of the NL West is sucking it up, although the D’Backs are really surprising right now.[/quote]
Tejada was a risk, but not a huge one. Yes, I see him gone soon and the Giants having to do something because the Rockies and Diamondbacks seem to be just as capable of winning that division.
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It was that or Ryno’s latest GIF.[/quote]
Gonna have to vote “no” on that one.
/faget
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I always like Fukudome as well. I still like his patience. He’s been doing surprisingly well as a leadoff man, though he doesn’t steal. I always got the feeling Ron Santo hated him.
joshQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ new banner
MishQuote Reply
I do like Fuke as the leadoff hitter. Too many managers put weak hitters with speed in the leadoff spot. I’d take a good OBP-heavy hitter over a Pierre or a Theriot any day.
ACTQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
^^ someone flagged that one themselves.
MishQuote Reply
Wow, I forgot Matt Stairs was still playing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What site is that from, SK?
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.whatsiteisthatfromSK.com
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]What site is that from, SK?[/quote]obstructedview.net?
No, it was some site called channelsurfing.net that I had in my bookmarks from years ago.
I’ve never seen a site that was taken over by Homeland Security and featuring such cartoony warning graphics before.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I wonder what Soto & Fukudome would bring from the Giants if moved by the end of June.
Could we get Wheeler & either Surkamp or Gillaspie for them?
Bubba BiscuitQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]obstructedview.net?
No, it was some site called channelsurfing.net that I had in my bookmarks from years ago.
I’ve never seen a site that was taken over by Homeland Security and featuring such cartoony warning graphics before.[/quote]
I guess it happened to the poker sites recently too. I can only assume we’ll be next.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I wonder what Soto & Fukudome would bring from the Giants if moved by the end of June.
Could we get Wheeler & either Surkamp or Gillaspie for them?[/quote]
Bob Wheeler?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Nice.
I think at least one of the fireballs heading for Wrigley should have the face of Quade on it.[/quote]Quade looks like he’s on fire on this picture:
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess it happened to the poker sites recently too. I can only assume we’ll be next.[/quote]Because of the illegal prostitution business we’re running on the side?
mb21Quote Reply
in no fucking shit news http://arizona.sbnation.com/arizona-diamondbacks/2011/6/8/2214278/mark-grace-arrested-for-dui-arizona-diamondbacks
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]in no fucking shit news http://arizona.sbnation.com/arizona-diamondbacks/2011/6/8/2214278/mark-grace-arrested-for-dui-arizona-diamondbacks%5B/quote%5D
Well, at least he was honest about it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
FWIW, track 6 on the new Death Cab album is called “Unobstructed Views”. I smell lawsuit.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]FWIW, track 6 on the new Death Cab album is called “Unobstructed Views”. I smell lawsuit.[/quote]We’ve already filed one.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
So…if Vogelbach can hit a baseball 500 feet with a metal bat, how far do you think he can hit it with a wooden bat?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/minor-leagues/2011-mlb-draft-rundown.html
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess it happened to the poker sites recently too. I can only assume we’ll be next.[/quote]
Yep. Fucking DOJ, fucking with my freedom.
jherkyQuote Reply