Too-Soon Update

In Uncategorized by myles

With the first 6 of the All-Pennsylvania Cup over, I thought I’d look at some stats to see where the Cubs stand so far.

Some caveats: it’s still crazily early to draw any real conclusions about the season. For one thing, there is no real interconnectivity. For instance, to connect Miami and the Cubs, you have to follow this loop:

Miami played Colorado, who played Kansas City, who played Tampa Bay, who played Texas, who played Philadelphia, who played us.

Hardly conclusive stuff. Second, no one has more than 31 PA this year. That’s a nothing sample size, as evidenced by Bonifacio’s .500/.548/.571 line.

That being said, I thought it’d be interesting to look at some trends.

Team Slash: .216/.294/.294
NL Slash: .243/.309/.377

Obviously, there’s been no power in Chicago this year. In ISO, the Cubs trail every team except the Padres, who have played their games in Petco Park and Marlins Park.

Team BABIP: .273
NL BABIP: .293

Pretty unlucky here, though that’s par for the course. The Cubs were historically poor in BABIP last season (worst in over 10 years), and the composition of the team hasn’t really changed much since then. Still, I’m cautiously expecting a modest bump in this area.

SO%/BB%: 22.6/8.9 (13.7)
NL Ratios: 21.6/8.3 (13.3)

This is promising! Hovering right around league-average here (smaller numbers are better in the SO-BB).

Cubs Platoon Advantage %: 70
NL PA%: 51%

#1 by a long way. Ricky loves the platoon advantage.

Team LD%: 23%
NL LD%: 24%

Team HR%: 1.2% (worst in NL)
NL HR%: 2.4%

Line drive rate looks pretty decent, but the HR rate is anomalously low. This is a factor of a few things: the Cubs played 3 games in PNC Park, and that’s friendly to lefties… except we faced lefties in that series that absolutely neutralized us. Liriano doesn’t surrender home runs to lefties – it just doesn’t happen. Cold, windy Wrigley also isn’t conducive to home runs either. Our HR/FB rate is 3.8%, well below the 7.1% average.


Cubs RA/G: 3.17
NL RA/G: 3.78

Pretty good here. Jose Veras excepted, this unit has performed above expectations. Unfortunately, our peripherals tell a slightly less optimistic story.

Cubs SO%/BB%: 21.4/10.3 (11.1)
NL SO%/BB%: 21.4/8.4 (13.0) [these numbers are different due to interleague play.]

Cubs LD%: 25
Cubs LD%: 24

Cubs LOB%: 81.2%
NL LOB%: 74.2%

The Cubs have let a full 7% of opponent’s baserunners stay on the basepaths to end the inning. Unless the Cubs are staffed by 12 copies of Mariano Rivera, that’s not likely to continue.

The Cubs have been slightly unlucky offensively and probably fairly lucky pitching-wise.

Share this Post