The Evolving Narrative

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube108 Comments

I will start by saying that social media is great for many things, despite the efforts by certain proprietors of websites to destroy it or make it totally not fun. It helps us connect with friends and fellow fans, it makes folks of authority and celebrities more accessible to us mere peasants, and it allows us to learn more about the world around us depending on how open we want our network to be. With the good comes the bad, which is the goldfish-level attention span and the incessant obsession to refresh and doomscroll to see if news has been updated. With the infamous Heyman “Arson Judge” snafu, it also brings to mind the need to determine the veracity of reports and the reputations of the messengers, as it is probably better to trust Passan and Rosenthal than what I might term the “B-squad” at this point.

Anyway, what I mean to say is that the Cubs have basically pissed away most of the goodwill they earned with a historic World Series championship. AC has outlined how to compete for the World Series, and we are all well aware of how chaotic baseball can be, especially in the playoffs when one cold spell coming up against a hot streak can torpedo a historically great regular season. And like most other billionaires trying to maximize profits, baseball team owners try to do what they can to reduce the amount being paid to players we actually want to watch while continuing to gouge us with high ticket prices in between making it difficult to hunt down an affordable stream of the live game. Evan at Cubs Insider compiled a number of Cubs fan accounts of why they’re giving up their season tickets or just not taking the opportunity to buy in, based off this original tweet resharing a letter from last year when another former season ticket holder elected not to renew. We can rationalize what transpired in the time between the last NLCS run and today, when the Cubs said goodbye (justifiably or not, that’s in the eye of the beholder) to pretty much their entire championship core, and the money seemingly just stopped flowing into the product we scrounge our discretionary income to see once or twice a year in person because we can’t afford much more.

Like AC alluded to, this is bad optics and it’s no wonder fans just won’t settle anymore. It may have been different back in the day, as Evan pointed out, when Cubs playoff appearances (much less victories) were few and far between and fans were just happy they got there. This was supposed to change, because the Cubs now had a smart baseball operations setup and good coaches and talent development and the financial backing to sustain a core, and with the rise of social media and fans learning more about how baseball works, they couldn’t count on as many fans being naive and buying into the lovable losers trope anymore. And even if they could count on fan goodwill, goodwill alone doesn’t pay the bills because inflation sucks and fans need to pay rent too.

Tim as usual is hilariously (and I believe justifiably) angry about this as you can see in his mini-rant on Twitter. I think Tim is prone to hyperbole because that’s who he is (enjoyable, I might add), but he is probably right about the system not producing the Bryant-Schwarber level of talent that would signal a contender in the making at this time. The best prospect is Pete Crow-Armstrong and a comfortingly long list of pitchers who could act as depth behind the MLB rotation right now, with a few other prospects of interest unfortunately on the mend due to some annoying ill-timed injuries (sad for both them and for us). Absent of in-house talent they can count on, no matter how much we fawn over Matt Mervis’ power potential, and with a need to contend to boost profits, the Cubs would seem to have little choice other than to spend. As Winkelman pointed out, there is no other way to acquire quick talent because the past CBAs have restricted amateur spending domestically and internationally, so a talent infusion requires free agency. It is true the Cubs have spent in the past when they “didn’t need to” because they were able to get Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki for pretty decent sized contracts, but they probably should have known (even if we didn’t) that prices would go bonkers and had been prepared for that. However, it isn’t just the Cubs sitting out while the Mets buy up everyone who isn’t nailed down, as other teams are also waiting in the wings to see what happens next, so we can’t just blame the Cubs for inaction. But it is damn frustrating!

In the next days and/or weeks, the narrative will change depending on what happens. The Ricketts will either cement their reputation as miserly owners who don’t care as long as they sell a certain number of tickets and make a certain amount of profit, and Jed Hoyer will get (fairly or unfairly) roasted in the court of public opinion because he failed to build a good enough case for the Cubs contending starting in 2023, or because he decided it wasn’t time to blow all the money Crane Kenney claims to have allocated to baseball ops. Or they will sign and/or trade for the pieces that will get the Cubs back to the playoffs, and have the Pitch Lab and coaching/development infrastructure to sustain it instead of wasting away all the talent as they did with the previous core, and we’ll have to eat our words and admit that Jed and Tom knew what they were doing all along. Which one do you think is more likely?

(In my train of thought writing through all this I neglected to state that the lack of news doesn’t mean that news doesn’t actually exist, it just means the Cubs haven’t leaked anything yet. The beat guys obviously have their own agenda and the sources they use are likely operating on their own agenda as well, i.e. as agents and/or owners attempting to sway a price point. Given that they’ve already said the money is there, and their own TV personalities are talking continuously about possible impact free agents, the Cubs have to know how bad it will look, kind of like now, if they don’t get something done. So we will see!)

Preferably, sooner rather than later, the Cubs give me a reason to keep paying attention and to pay for a ticket too.

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  1. Perkins

    Looking at the contracts for Turner and Bogaerts, this Cubs FO seems to be embodying Mike Tyson’s old quip that everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

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  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    Do you know what NBA and NHL contract structures are like? I do know they get more money up front, but NBA also has fewer roster spots and NHL doesn’t generate as much revenue. If they really wanted to avoid these long contracts that flame out at the end, just pay the young ones more, right? They did try that with the CBA pre-arb pool and bonuses to award winners and stuff but that’s hardly a drop in the big bucket.

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  3. dmick89

    It seems to me that three, four weeks ago the Cubs FO was thinking they were going to spend money, but that almost certainly isn’t true at this point. That leads me to believe that what the Cubs had in mind was 5-7 years and $125 million to $175 million, but when that got to 8-11 years and $250-350 million the Cubs decided they’d rather give money to fascists.

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  4. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I’m betting the Cubs expected around $200-250MM over 7-8 years for Correa, and still think there’s a timeline in which that’s possible.

    What’s infuriating is that Correa solves for several things they need at one position, so he’s much more valuable than attempting to recreate his production across multiple spots. I think the only realistic backup plan that allows for contention would be Swanson and a trade for Murphy at C. But Correa only costs money, so he’s pretty clearly the best option.

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  5. andcounting

    In any given year, ~half of the top-tier performers are going to be playing on massive FA contracts and the other half will be a mix of stars nearing free agency, ridiculously inexpensive team-controlled deals, and free agents outperforming their small-to-medium contracts. I’m quite sure Jed and most GMs not so secretly want to win with as few of the massive free agent deals as possible. Maybe the only force stronger than an owner’s greed is a GM’s ego, and it seems like those two forces are working in perfect tandem in Chicago.

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  6. dmick89

    Perkins,

    Yeah and Swanson is probably going to cost that much now. I can’t imagine spending that much money on him when you could spend more to get Correa while keeping draft picks.

    Correa is worth whatever it costs to sign him. I don’t get how billionaire owners can’t comprehend that.

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  7. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    You’re really anxious to see where all the chips fall, aren’t you? I don’t think there’s much incentive for anyone to hurry right at this moment. The Cubs will probably want something else done by Cubs Con. I’m guessing the past couple of years have taught most teams the value of a full spring training, so I don’t expect many significant moves to happen past February 1. But it’s safe to say all the interested parties have shot their shots with the remaining free agents, who probably aren’t in too big of a hurry either. It sure looks like there are more teams wanting a shortstop than there are good shortstops and more teams wanting a starting pitcher than there are Carlos Rodons. The prices on these guys (the players we want the Cubs to go after) aren’t going to go down, and the players know that. I’m assuming it’s going to get more and more difficult to make an offer that blows everyone else out of the water without feeling nonsensical. Each player probably has their ideal landing spot picked out and they’re just waiting for the offer to include every last thing they want.

    One thing I am curious about, given how aggressive the Padres have been, is at what point they might be stocking up on free agents so they can deal Juan Soto. When they reach the point when they don’t think they can extend him, they’re going to deal him. Will they finish one more run at the World Series or will they look to get the most out of the two final seasons of his that don’t cost $50 million?

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  8. BVS

    andcounting,

    Right? Like how the Dodgers sign players in advance of losing others.

    The trouble with this strategy moving forward is the 10 year contract — especially those with no-trade clauses like TTurner.

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  9. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,
    BVS,

    The old ACB/OV stuff would have some quick WAR/$ estimates with declining years and value-up-front calculations to see how much financial commitment the team can try to soak up before it all goes to hell when the player stops being elite so maybe we can try something like that later on depending on what insane contract terms are agreed upon.

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  10. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    I mean the Cubs can still trade for a Blue Jays catcher but now they should probably just sign Vazquez or Narvaez as well as get Correa, however the prevailing rumor is that the Giants and Twins are in the lead on that front so I don’t know WTF the Cubs are doing anymore

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  11. Perkins

    Rice Cube,

    I’m spitballing that guillotines won’t make it through the metal detectors, but pockets laden with rotten fruit will.

    I hope the Cubs sign Correa and a catcher, but I won’t be disappointed if the owners and FO have to face a reckoning for the past few years.

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  12. Perkins

    andcounting:
    Sahadev on the Score pretty much saying Jed won’t sign Correa.

    “Jed will have all the money he needs to turn the team around.”
    *minutes later*
    “Okay not that kind of money.”

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  13. Perkins

    andcounting,

    Feels like everyone is gun shy after the Heyward contract but that’s the main benefit of being a big market team: being able to absorb those.

    Being committed to acting like a small market team when you have money is just a fucking baffling philosophy.

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  14. andcounting

    I wonder if Sandy Alcántara is wishing he had signed a one-year deal last offseason. Marlins absolutely stole him compared to what he would have gotten this year.

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  15. andcounting

    Perkins,

    Especially because THEY WON THE WORLD SERIES. Stop kicking yourself, Cubs. I’ll totally forgive you if you win a World Series for every long term contract you sign.

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  16. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    It’s probably a situation where the Ricketts say, “Hey, get us back to the playoffs and anything can happen,” and Jed is like, “ok, I can do that by being super clever and analytical instead of doing what every hack twitterer and blog poster thinks I should do.”

    But then you take a step back you realize the Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals are basically already in the playoffs next season. You’ve got to unseat one of those teams, and you’re not going to do it with a bunch of nifty little deals and surprising young prospects. I mean, maybe you are, it’s baseball. But there are too many stacked teams in the NL to enter the season without at least one no-doubt producer on your roster. Jed is at risk of being so smart he becomes an idiot.

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  17. dmick89

    I realized I just got back into baseball to see the Cubs do the thing they were most expected to do. I don’t know why I’m surprised. They’ve been doing it for nearly the entirety of my almost 48 years on this overheating rock.

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  18. BVS

    andcounting,

    Simple, sign Correa for $40M * 5 years. He gets the largest position player AAV and is only 33 when he’s on the market again. Add a mutual option for year 6 if needed at like 20M and a signing bonus if you have to go up in total value.

    (But maybe sign Nico and Happ to extensions first, if that’s the plan.)

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  19. BVS

    Rice Cube:
    This weird MLB schmollusion is ridiculous, I go to sleep and the only thing that happened was Sean Manaea signed by the Giants

    Apparently you have to be awake for shit to happen.

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  20. Author
    Rice Cube

    This lack of action is probably going to tarnish any lingering positive perception of the Cubs by potential free agents if they don’t panic sign some more players, though

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  21. Perkins

    I can squint and get the logic behind not pursuing the outgoing catcher who was really solid offensively in favor of a catcher who better handles the pitchers, but then they actually need to get that catcher.

    They also need to be realistic that the Cubs may need to set the market to get the talent they want. This isn’t a 2015 situation where it’s obvious they’re on the cusp of big things and only a move or two away, and people will sign because they see a good shot at jewelry.

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  22. berselius

    Perkins: “Jed will have all the money he needs to turn the team around.”
    *minutes later*
    “Okay not that kind of money.”

    *Jed buys a new team bus*

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  23. BVS

    RC — as you noted above, some analysis of cost per unit WAR would be pretty interesting. Who used to do that at ACB? I remember those posts. They really helped put contracts in context.

    Meanwhile, let’s just guess that Correa will be worth 6 WAR next year at age 28, then 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, 2 though age 35. That’s 37 WAR. If a win is $9.5M*, that’s $351.5M over 7 years which is $50.2M year. Make it an 8 year contract with some mutual option that no one will take and a $1.5M buyout with $350 over years 1-7. ($43.9 AAV). Add an opt out in years 3, 4, and 5 and subtract $20M and you get $331.5 for 8 yr and 41.4AAV.

    Seems fair. No?

    *I found an article on fangraphs that said above average free agents got 8.5M/WAR last year, and bumped it up.

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  24. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    Apparently the Braves #1 prospect isn’t really valued very highly. There wasn’t a top 100 in the whole bunch. CBS is panning the trade for the A’s hard, but loves it for Milwaukee and Atlanta.

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  25. Author
    Rice Cube

    BVS,

    That seems about right, there is of course the risk from the rest of the fanbase re: long contract/overpaid stiff similar to what happened with Heyward, but flags fly forever as they say

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  26. Author
    Rice Cube

    I seriously don’t understand what’s going on because everything that has happened so far in terms of transactions this offseason could have been done by the Cubs. I get not signing old/broken guys in Verlander and deGrom, but not trading for Sean Murphy (felt like they could have beaten the prospect package), not signing Vazquez on that deal, not getting Senga on the Mets deal etc etc…it doesn’t make sense unless A) they’re allocating nearly every available dollar to Correa, which doesn’t really make sense in a vacuum either or B) they’re giving Jed Monopoly money to play with instead of real money because Todd lost all the funds in crypto and NFTs

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  27. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    There’s a decent chance the most we can expect from the Cubs is Swanson but the far more likely possibility is that they thought Bellinger/Tallion was enough to please the fans at Cubs Con.

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  28. dmick89

    So this is Jed’s final year, right? Ownership can’t be looking at this shit and be impressed even if it’s partly because of their own financial restrictions. This is just embarrassing for a large market club.

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  29. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube,

    Far be it from me to shift any blame from the clowns @ Cubs ownership, but a nagging thought has been getting naggier as each gettable FA has flown off the board:

    Maybe Jed’s just not very good at this.

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  30. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I don’t know, are the Ricketts unhappy? Ratings are down, but revenue is still up. And Wrigley’s a cash-cow amusement park. Who gives a rat’s ass about baseball?

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  31. BVS

    Some of Swanson’s batted ball stats are better than any of the other 3 SS, for what that’s worth. He’s also on his honeymoon right now, or so I read.

    Remember that Theo and Jed have always been very close to the vest on what’s going on in the office. Until Correa and Swanson are signed, I’ll wait and see. They seem to have fewer leaks since Theo came in than the Trump WH in 20 min.

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  32. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Per Cots, Hoyer is signed through 2025 as he had barely been extended after taking over for Theo. It may be that the Theo tree is not as smart as they seem, but also he might just be committed to the process and unwilling to sway from the course, kind of like how Tampa Bay is married to the third time through barrier and will take Blake Snell out even if he has been cruising for five innings

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/

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  33. andcounting

    Rice Cube: andcounting,

    I don’t think even Todd is stupid enough to think that

    You’re vastly underestimating how tone deaf the Cubs can be. Remember when Tom was completely shocked when Marquee got booed?

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  34. andcounting

    Cubs ownership, like the rest of them, consist of people who pocket most of the money baseball fans provide them and cry poor when asked to use more than half of that money to produce good baseball. How are they supposed to know when that con isn’t working?

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  35. Author
    Rice Cube

    Even the Pirates are making signings, and we have heard nary a peep about MiLB signings other than Stout, reclamation projects besides the one really expensive one, and obviously nothing about the BIG signings that should have happened but didn’t. Perhaps the impatience is seeping in, but also WTF Cubs

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  36. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    There’s always the possibility that the best signings and the most obvious ones are not the same and that Jed knows exactly what he’s doing and the Cubs aren’t done. But the window on the “Cubs will spend” narrative is cracked at best.

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  37. Perkins

    I’m having flashbacks to the 2018-19 offseason when the plan had always looked like signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado and all they got money for was picking up the option on Cole Hamels. But even with the holes that team had, they at least could compete for the division.

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  38. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube: It may be that the Theo tree is not as smart as they seem, but also he might just be committed to the process and unwilling to sway from the course,

    I wonder if it’s more or less a case of not wanting to get Heywarded again, and especially not when the team isn’t in the catbird seat but trying to claw its way back to respectability. I sympathize with caution at this stage of the rebuild, but at the same time, there have been quite a few good to very good players getting snatched up at prices (and trade hauls) that seem like the Cubs should’ve been in the mix for. Add to that ownership doing a big money flex prior to the Cubs pulling off medium-ish value moves followed by a whole lotta nada, and it makes me wonder if either Jed wasn’t prepared for where the market was heading, or he and ownership aren’t on the same page. Either or both would indicate maybe Jed ought not to be running things at this point. I’m old enough to remember when the Trib finally loosened the purse strings and a certain Cubs GM hooked himself up to an EKG and said, “Let’s go, motherfuckers.”

    Of course, Correa is still out there. And that alone would shut me right up. So, wait and see, I guess.

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  39. Smokestack Lightning

    I guess I just miss that brief period of time when the Cubs would swoop in and snap up the Ben Zobrists and Jason Heywards for a team already well on its way to the top of the mountain, and Ken Tremendous would tweet out in ecstasy: “THEO EPSTEIN.”

    I really miss that shit.

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  40. Perkins

    I’ve been thinking a lot about something Theo Epstein said when he stepped down, that he’s both more interested and more skilled in building something than sustaining it. I’m pretty sure he said that sustainment was more of Hoyer’s interest and where they had often butted heads.

    Given the ship sailed on sustaining the last group, I’ve been wondering if Hoyer isn’t good enough at building to get it back there. I don’t know if that’s fair, but he does give the impression of too much rigidity in the process.

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  41. dmick89

    Perkins,

    Didn’t the Padres make a series of good moves in his brief tenure as their GM? Maybe my memory is faulty, but when he joined the Cubs I seemed to have the impression he was already on his way to building something in SD.

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  42. Author
    Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    dmick89,

    If you consider that the farm is being rebuilt and the coaching/development infrastructure appears to be working, then in that sense Jed seems to know what he’s doing re: building, and now he just needs to pull the trigger to accelerate the timeline a bit?

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  43. Author
    Rice Cube

    I have decided I have done enough work today, and will now go out and about with the wife. Which is the impetus the Cubs need to sign all the remaining good players while I’m not paying attention, so you’re welcome (dying laughing)

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  44. Perkins

    Rice Cube,

    That’s fair, and I’m sure I’m not giving Hoyer enough credit. The talent development side definitely looks much better than when McLeod had it, but I’m frustrated because large market teams shouldn’t have to do multi-year rebuilds very often.

    I’m guessing the problem has usually been with ownership, but goddamn. There’s talent available for only money, which they have to spend, and fills a positional need for which they have no prospects close to ready. On its face, this is as easy as it gets.

    I’m only a bit less frustrated that Shaun Murphy was traded for a return that I think the Cubs could have matched or exceeded without giving up PCA.

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  45. dmick89

    Perkins: I’m frustrated because large market teams shouldn’t have to do multi-year rebuilds very often.

    I’m 48 years old and I can’t remember off the top of my head even one time the Cardinals or Yankees did a rebuild. The Cardinals aren’t even a large market team. Others haven’t been as successful, but the Giants and Dodgers don’t really go that route either. Even the Angels are busy signing players to longterm deals.

    I don’t understand the Cubs. They’re just cheap bastards.

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  46. berselius

    Perkins,

    I still shake my head at the number of times I thought “Wow, the Cubs are so lucky that no one has managed to hire Jason McLeod away from them for a GM gig somewhere else”

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  47. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I could use my last remaining dollar on a winning lottery ticket, and, if the prize in that lottery was the Pirates organization, I could afford to outspend the Cubs every season for five seasons and still, in that window of time, become one of the 100 wealthiest people in America.

    Cheap is too kind. They make Scrooge look like mother goddamn Theresa.

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  48. BVS

    Maybe part of the equation is that the big prospects really didn’t click last year. Steele and Keegan did well, and some of the other young P are fine for the pen, but Kilian needs work, Davis was injured, Canario probably needs more time, PCA is a year away, Wesneski looked good but only for 2 weeks, etc. Morell was decent. Velasquez was a 5th OF. You could argue that we are all one year early on the timeline.

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  49. Author
    Rice Cube

    BVS,

    If they don’t spend this year, then they’ll have to do a lot of trades because the most they can sign once Correa/Dansby are gone is Machado if he opts out and Shohei and a bunch of solid pitchers. Pitchers can’t hit so that won’t solve much. They should spend now.

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  50. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    BVS,

    They already did this for Harper and Turner so I don’t think they’ll stop this one. Built in deferral and that’s something the Cubs should’ve done but someone or everyone in the organization is stubbornly stupid

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  51. andcounting

    On the sour grapes side, I will thoroughly enjoy no longer giving a single shit about Carlos Correa, and I certainly won’t miss trying to persuade myself not to disdain him.

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