2013 is essentially a lost season for the entirety of the major league Cubs. Sure, Welington Castillo has looked like a competent catcher, if not spectacular, but most of the young core went the other way or stayed the same. Now that it's almost September, it's almost time for September call-ups. For the more casual fan, September 1 is when a team no longer needs to adhere to a 25-man roster and can use anyone on the 40-man that they choose. We talked briefly in the comments about who might be on the call-up list, and it got me wondering how many people are going to need to get put on the list to avoid being Rule 5'ed away (drafted by another team).
The list of players Rule 5 eligible is pretty huge (hat tip to TCR). I'll bold the ones I care about:
Arismendy Alcantara, INF
Gioskar Amaya, INF
Frank Batista, RHP
Dallas Beeler, RHP
Julio Borbon, OF
Justin Bour, 1B
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Lendy Castillo, RHP
Javier Castro, RHP
Zach Cates, RHP
Hunter Cervenka, LHP
Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
Casey Coleman, RHP
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP
Willson Contreras, C
Wes Darvill, INF
Antonio Encarnacion, RHP
Luis Flores, C
Anthony Giansanti, OF
Enyel Gonzalez, RHP
Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF
Marco Hernandez, INF
Eric Jokisch, LHP
Austin Kirk, LHP
Matt Loosen, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
Eric Martinez, RHP
A. J. Morris, RHP
Chad Noble, C
Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
Loiger Padron, RHP
Amaury Paulino, RHP
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
Greg Rohan, INF
Jose Rosario, RHP
Zach Rosscup, LHP
Victor Salazar, RHP
Brian Schlitter, RHP
Ryan Searle, RHP
Elliot Soto, INF,
Nick Struck, RHP
Luis Villalba, LHP
Yao-Lin Wang, RHP
Oliver Zapata, OF
—
Arismendy Alcantara, INF
Gioskar Amaya, INF
Eric Jokisch, LHP
Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
Zach Rosscup, LHP
Brian Schlitter, RHP
This is where it gets complicated. The Cubs have 40 men on their 40-man roster, but they really have 49 on it. They have 9 players on the 60-day DL that have to come off. Of course, some players are free agents at the end of the season. The 40-man looks like this after those people leave:
PItchers:
Jake Arrieta
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Rafael Dolis
Kyuji Fujikawa
Justin Grimm
Edwin Jackson
Trey McNutt
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino
Travis Wood
Catchers:
Infielders:
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Mike Olt
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders:
Brett Jackson
Junior Lake
Thomas Neal
Dave Sappelt
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
So, that's 36 people on the 40, and 7 of them I couldn't really give a shit about.
If we add the 6 I care about, we've got to get rid of at least three of those 8, and as you'll see, we need to make at least 2 more slots for a backup and a 3rd catcher. Further, the 37 we still have consist of 20 pitchers, 1 catcher, 9 infielders, and 7 outfielders; this year, we're carrying 16/3/10/11. If we add the 6 players I've outlined, we'll get to 24/1/10/7, which overloads us on the pitching side AND puts us at 43. Let's make what I think are obvious cuts:
Kyuji Fujikawa is a TJ guy, so he's not going to be on the 40-man. Hector Rondon has shown nothing, results-wise, this year. He's going to be gone. Eduardo Sanchez might get stashed somehow, but he's probably off the 40-man as is Trey McNutt. Rafael Dolis and Brooks Raley are still fairly young, but just aren't as promising as the players coming behind them. That leaves us with 18 pitchers, which is still high.
For the two catchers, they'll probably try to re-sign Dioner Navarro, and if they don't they'll find some journeyman backup. The 3rd catcher will probably be Rafael Lopez, who's been really good for the Smokies this year. That's 3 catchers.
In the infield, they lose Cody Ransom and Donnie Murphy. They could bring one or both back, but I doubt they have room. Watkins can play the utility role, and Alcantara and Amaya will definitely be on the 40. That keeps the number on infielders at 10, exactly where it is this year.
In the outfield, we lose a bunch of people. Bogusevic, Gillespie, McDonald, and Sweeney are all FA or MLFA. I don't really need anyone on the Rule 5 eligible list (I guess losing Jae-Hoon Ha wouldn't be great). I think we'll address this in FA to some degree, so I'm going to leave a slot for -FA acquisition-, which brings us to 8. That's a low number.
That leaves us with 39 on my projected roster, which is good. We'll sign another free agent OF (Sweeney, likely), to get to 40. That means my provisional 40-man for next year is as follows:
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Rafael Dolis
Kyuji Fujikawa
Justin Grimm
Edwin Jackson
Eric Jokisch
Trey McNutt
Juan Carlos Paniagua
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Zach Rosscup
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Brian Schlitter
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino
Travis Wood
Catchers
Welington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Rafael Lopez
Infielders
Arismendy Alcantara
Gioskar Amaya
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Mike Olt
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders
Shin-Soo Choo
Brett Jackson
Junior Lake
Thomas Neal
Dave Sappelt
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney
Matt Szczur
One last thing: there are a few 40-man people that, in this scenario, could get Rule 5'ed. Marco Hernandez, Casey Coleman (who, the more I think about, the more I'd like to save if possible), Nick Struck, and Frank Batista are all possibilities. I'd weigh that against the people we have to keep, though, and just hope that none of those people would actually stick.
Comments
Hey wait a minute, how did Shin-Soo Choo get on that list?
joshQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Sorry GW. I didn’t mean to make it sound like I was being critical. I loved the idea and enjoyed the article. By the time I got through the comments, that was the comment I left. Sorry about that.
Yeah, Friedman would have been interesting. Knowing the direction the Cubs decided to go (rebuild), I wonder if Ricketts went into this wanting a rebuild if he’d have hired Friedman who clearly had better experience at filling an empty system than Thoyer did.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Is Provus the main PBP guy there? He certainly had an excellent training ground working alongside Pat Hughes and Bob Uecker. When I heard him doing Brewers games, he even used the same pre-game script Pat uses.
Judd doesn’t bother nearly as much as he used to. He still sound like the Beaver, but he’s toned it down a few dozen notches compared to his debut season.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I only listened to one inning, but yeah it sounded like he was dedicated pbp. Working with Ueck would be a dream job, though you have to imagine it would be difficult to keep up.
Judd is a little less annoying, I’ll give him that. I haven’t even bothered listening to much Cubs radio this year. I generally just watch highlights.
joshQuote Reply
I really don’t understand how a 20 year old could be eligible for the rule 5 draft. I guess Hernandez will be 21 in December, but still.
The same rules must also apply to those who sign at 16. That just seems odd.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
not a problem
GWQuote Reply
Josh has completely immunized himself against the Hope Monster.
Aisle424Quote Reply
According to cubs.com the Cubs have 47 on their 40-man roster. They also have 8 on the 60-day DL. I know they’re not always up to do ate. Myles, where are you seeing 49? Not that this is really changing anything. It’s a crowded roster for sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Judd doesn’t really bother me anymore, he’s toned it down a bunch. He also had completely awful chemistry with Santo, but seems to mesh well enough with Keith. I don’t like Keith nearly as much as I did when he would sub in for Ron.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think these are the players the Cubs will try to protect assuming the roster remains about the same.
Arismendy Alcantara
Gioskar Amaya
Justin Bour
Pin Chieh Chen
Jae-Hoon Ha
Marco Hernandez
Erik Jokisch
Juan Carlos Paniagua
Zach Rosscup
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, well, I’m just trying to be a realist. I’m sure I’ll be first in line for koolaid if they do some crazy stuff in the off-season.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, Keith isn’t so great.
It was physically painful listening to Judd and Ron’s interactions. Probably as painful for them as us.
joshQuote Reply
Just watched MLB’s live lookin on the Cubs. Almost the entire time was spent talking about some fan who ate some of his son’s ice cream.
#ThisIsAYear.
joshQuote Reply
Will we hate Hollywood actors like we do baseball players? http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/84901/how-much-of-hollywood-is-pumping-hgh-duh-probably-a-lot-of-hollywood
I’m putting all my money on No.
dmick89Quote Reply
See any of these guys that are borderline being traded as a sweetener to a deal instead of risking losing them in Rule 5?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Just think how many Oscars could be tainted.
They need to pave a separate sidewalk of the Hollywood Walk of Fame for all the cheaters.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yep. How can we ever know which performance is real and which one is tainted?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
So apparently the cubs came back and tied this game. Life got in the way when they were down 4 late.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Fear not, the Cubs always find a way.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Provus is the dedicated PBP man. Twins games on the radio are the only listenable part of sports radio up here.
Re: What If? – Anybody think there’s any chance we’d have ended up with Luhnow?
sitrickQuote Reply
What if the Twins selected Mark Prior first overall and the Cubs took Joe Mauer?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
The Cubs don’t win the division in 2003, but they might have won the division in 2009. They also win the division easier in 2007 and my guess is that Dusty Baker is fired after 2005.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Joe Mauer busts and Prior becomes a contact pitcher.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
(dying laughing) nicely done
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
+1 LSA Rec’d NAMBLA
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://mrphilroth.com/mlbpayrolls/
i’m having trouble finding carlos silva
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That’s a very cool site.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
There’s a woman in my office wearing a Fukudome shirsey. I have so many questions.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I think you need to get to the bottom of this.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-22-13.html
MylesQuote Reply
What if the Cubs Kept Matt Cain Instead of Flipping Him for Ricky Nolasco?
GBTSQuote Reply