The Children Are The Future-Cubs Minor League Update Sponsored by RockSkew Grill

In Minor Leagues by Obstructed View Staff82 Comments

Iowa

Anthony Rizzo just keeps hitting. He knocked out his 10th HR of the year last night and is now hitting .356. Luis Valbuena is also doing very well but at this point isn't anything but injury insurance. Frank Batista is really struggling in the bullpen since his promotion but is young-ish for the level so maybe he just needs time to adjust.

Smokies

Kansas native Logan Watkins was about the only thing going on for the offense as he went 3-4. Watkins profiles as a utility IF as he can play 2B/SS. I think you'll see him in the majors by 2014. 

Daytona

Nobody did anything worth writing about. Zach Cates continues to be really really bad as a SP.

Peoria

Kyle(r) Burke put in another decent start working 6.1 innings of 2 ER ball. 1B Paul Hoilman went 2-4 with a triple and has really come on strong as of late. Taiwan Easterling is also finally showing some signs of life at the plate and is now hitting ..233 after a horrid start. 

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  1. Author
    WaLi

    Speaking of defense, has there ever been any research put into platooning defense with the pitcher?

    For instance, let’s say you have a low strikeout GB pitcher at the mound. I might be more inclined to put Darwin Barney at 2nd and lose some offense but gain some defense since I know there will be a lot of balls in play. It seems like if managers were to do this, you may be able to create a low BABIP for the pitcher that is real and not luck.

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  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ WaLi:
    I think that would probably be an endgame approach and managers already seem to do that. I think at the beginning of the game you play to get as many runs as possible before you worry about defense, but I don’t have 20+ years of MLB knowledge so that’s just my video game mode talking.

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  3. Author
    WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:
    I was thinking more about starting pitcher pairings, not so much taking out Soriano for Reed Johnson in the 8th inning.

    Sure you are always going to keep your best hitters in (Castro, LaHair) but if you were thinking about playing Cardenas or Barney, maybe you go with the better glove instead of the better bat.

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  4. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ WaLi:
    I could imagine a manager and his statmonkey running the numbers to see how many runs each “platoon” could score and prevent and then use that information accordingly. If runs against >>>> runs scored then they’d probably use your idea in an ideal situation. I think most managers go for optimal offense though. I’ve also never heard of a pitcher requesting a personal defender other than a catcher, but that’s an interesting idea to explore.

    (got myself mixed up there)

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  5. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ Berselius:
    This might be more appropriate given the upcoming election…

    Seems you need a certain consistency of pancake as your starting material or else it won’t shape right. I wonder what kind of knife or blade he used.

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  6. Berselius

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    It sounds like they’re getting half-seasons. I’d love for the shows to stick around but NBC has every reason to cancel them. They routinely get beaten by Univision or BBt reruns on TBS in the ratings. 13 episodes is also plenty to wrap things up, which would be nice instead of a sudden ending.

    That’s just a rumor anyway, now that we’ve heard about it it won’t happen. FWIW none of the Parks/Community-obsessed TV writers I follow have picked this up, and they’re at upfronts right now.

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  7. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    Not yet.. Will be in about 5 hours

    Bubbles is still recovering froma broken hand from last fridays bulls game

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  8. Author
    mb21

    Mish wrote:

    IS THAT REAL?

    The guy just said he’s legally changing his name to bubblesdachimp and you’re wondering whether or not the NBC comedies comment is for real?

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  9. Author
    mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Just got around to reading the article.

    Despite his 29 looong years of age, LaHair has only 322 PA in his MLB career. And since his last 103 PA have come with an unsustainable .510 BABIP, it has skewed his career BABIP to .390. In the minors, LaHair consistently displayed an ability to keep his BABIP above .330, so we can start there, but just guessing what his true talent BABIP is would be too tough.

    Using slash12′s xBABIP calculator, we get a .349 BABIP — still quite high, but in line with what we find in his minor league career (where his career BABIP was .347).

    I find it very hard to believe that a player’s BABIP doesn’t go down at the MLB level. If you start with the MiLB BABIP you have to take something off at the big league level. What we’d really want to do is regress his BABIP back to .300 or so based on the few PA he has. What we’d end up with is something like .302. xBABIP is the expected BABIP based on the events so far. It’s not the expected future BABIP.

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  10. Author
    mb21

    BABIP at the MLB level is .290 for batters. It’s .328 in the PCL so far this year. I don’t know what the disparity is and whether or not you should just subtract X amount to estimate future BABIP, but there’s absolutely no way you can take minor league BABIP and act as if it will be the same at the big league level.

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  11. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    Yeah, there’s holes in the analysis. And even if you stick with FG numbers, if you regress LaHair’s numbers, you get league average, or a bit below. Making the adjustments you suggest would make me take real caution in my expectations for LaHair going forward.

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  12. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    LaHair has a better ISO right now than Albert Pujols has ever posted in a single season. Surely sustainable for a 30 YO career minor-leaguer.

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  13. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Here’s LaHair’s MLE’s, weighted for league and team, based on his best MiLB season (2011): 523 PA, 67 R, 128 H, 30 2B, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 45 BB, 120 K, .238/.298/.451

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  14. Author
    mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    As I mentioned yesterday, I’m fairly certain he’s a good ballplayer. I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it, but based on what we know at this point I think it’s safe to say that. I also think it’s safe to be cautious about our expectations as you are.

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  15. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    Yeah, I think he’s at least a league-average 1B. But he’s nowhere near as good as he looks now. I really want to see how he adjusts once the league adjusts. It looked like the Braves had a plan, and they got him to chase some bad pitches and get himself out.

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  16. Author
    WaLi

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/9974/lahair-takes-a-step-outside

    The one way you could get LaHair out was to throw him a two-strike pitch away. In his first 19 games, he had 13 strikeouts and one hit on such pitches.

    But LaHair has more than made up for that since.

    LaHair’s last 33 swings against outside pitches have resulted in 16 balls in play and amazingly, 10 base hits. Of those, six have gone to the opposite field (four in the air, two on the ground), including the game-winner

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  17. Aisle424

    So says Sullivan:

    One thing about Marmol: He faces reporters whenever he blows games. Not everyone in the clubhouse can say that.

    He’s looking at you, Woody.

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  18. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:
    Kasper confirmed Sullivan is the one that pissed off Wood. Sully stirring shit. At least he’s being equal opportunity about it.

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  19. Author
    mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    No. I had actually forgotten about that until today and checked over there and it’s still not up. It was supposedly going to run sometime this week. If it doesn’t I’ll publish it over here. I’ve got another article I’m going to work on for here, but I was wanting that article to be published first.

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  20. Author
    ACT

    re: the new balk rule, the announcers of the Yanks-Rays game say the fake-to-third is being outlawed because it’s unfair to southpaws. That is, it’s a balk if lefties fake to first, but not righties. I don’t know if this is true or not, but I don’t find this justification convincing. Lefties have a huge advantage in holding baserunners, why take a small one away from righties?

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