The Children Are The Future- Cubs Minor League Update Sponsored by Kodak

In Minor Leagues by Obstructed View Staff173 Comments

Iowa

What more can be said about Rizzo? Another night another pair of HR's and a ringing ground rule double. The future looks bright at 1B. Josh Vitters was 2-4 with a BB as well. Also, can somebody tell me why Jay Jackson still has a job?

Smokies

Trey McNutt's ERA finally caught up with his secondary #'s as he was rocked last night. 9 hits and 8 ER in 3.1 IP will do that do you and we can forget about this guy being anything but a RP. Junior Lake was 1-5 with a HR and BB. In his first rehab appearance Beef Castle lit up the other team to the tune of 1-2 with a HR and BB. 

Daytona

Matt Loosen put up a hell of a start working 6 shutout innings where he allowed only 2 hits and struck out 7. Loosen is somewhat of an interesting arm he struck out nearly a batter per inning last year and is doing the same so far this year as well. That said he is 23 and in Daytona so nothing to get overly excited about. His good pitching must have been contagious because even Hayden Simpson decided to show up striking out 2 batters in a clean inning of relief work. 

Peoria

Geraldo Concepcion was terrible (must still be working on that fastball command!) and Javier Baez had the night off. Thats all you need to know. 

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  1. Author
    dylanj

    To the guy who asked why I like Vitters-

    First off he’s been young for every level and while he has never dominated he hasn’t got worse either. A league average performance at 22 in AAA isn’t something to to dismiss. Reports are that his defense has improved and his walk rate is the best its ever been. Law still says his swing is very pretty for a RH hitter and I just think there is still upside there. If he wasn’t “Josh Vitters former # 3 pick” I think we would be pleased with what he is doing so far.

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  2. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ WaLi:
    In the PCL? Without looking, probably quite a few. Hell, Micah Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in the PCL in 2008, and immortals such as Larry Sutton, Calvin Pickering, and Jason DuBois have done the same. In Rizzo’s age group, you see names like Travis Snider, Kila, and CarGo putting up big OPS numbers in the PCL. It’s a good young hitter tearing a league that is very hitter-friendly. That’s a fact, and saying that does not diminish in the least what Rizzo is doing. It just helps me to realize that what he is doing right now is no guarantee of big league success. Doesn’t make his season any less impressive, though. That is for damn sure.

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  3. Author
    mb21

    EnricoPallazzo wrote:

    mb, what is your new avatar? it would appear to be a severed head that has been somehow attached to the shell of a turtle. but i’m guessing that’s wrong…

    That’s exactly what it is (Tortuga from Breaking Bad)

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  4. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    Yeah he has

    2008 A-, 277 PA: 130 wRC+
    2009 A, 288 PA, 148 wRC+
    2009 A+, 196 PA, 71 wRC+
    2010A+, 120 PA, 133 wRC+
    2010 AA, 228 PA, 85 wRC+
    2011 AA, 488 PA, 99 wRC+
    2012 AAA 236 PA, 94 wRC+

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  5. Author
    dylanj

    so basically his average is being around league average. And always at a young age. That was my point

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  6. Author
    mb21

    Age is important, but so is professional experience. He’s played for 6 years and has played in nearly 500 games and almost has 2000 plate appearances. The two players below are not equal (their age is one factor, but their experience is another).

    22 year old drafted in 2010
    22 year old drafted in 2007

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  7. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    Average in the minor leagues is below average at the mlb level. We’ve seen how Vitters has gotten worse as he’s moved up the system and the same will happen at the MLB level. I do think he can hit lefties well enough to wear a big league uniform, but there’s just too much to improve to be a starter.

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  8. Author
    Mish

    Hell, Micah Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in the PCL in 2008, and immortals such as Larry Sutton, Calvin Pickering, and Jason DuBois have done the same.

    Doesn’t this post need more Jake Fox?

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  9. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Berselius:
    I meant Vitters, but yeah it’s crazy to think Cashner and Rizzo were traded for one another. I’d do that deal every time, even if Rizzo is only an average MLB player.

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  10. Berselius

    I think you’re both right on Vitters, dj and mb. It seems like he’s improved his stock a lot in the past few months, but the problem is that his stock was so low to begin with. He’s gone from worthless to utility player. For what it’s worth I think his defense has improved this year, if my memory isn’t failing me yet again.

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  11. Author
    mb21

    @ Berselius:
    He still makes a shitload of errors for a 3rd baseman and since he’s slow we could never expect much from him anyway. I think he’s a Jeff Baker so I’d like to see the Cubs get him some playing time at 2nd base in the minors. The more positions he can play the more useful he could be.

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  12. Author
    mb21

    I also think the Cubs should call him up now. The odds he ever reaches free agency or costs the Cubs anything meaningful as a super 2 are pretty low. Let him and Stewart platoon at 3rd base the rest of the year.

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  13. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    I am as serious as a heart attack when I say I really hope he makes a comeback. That guy was/is a once-in-a-lifetime talent.

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  14. Berselius

    I love Taco Bell a whole lot more when I compare it to a paper bag filled with vomit.

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  15. Author
    josh

    $6.8M/Win, assuming he sustains 2.5 (optimistic).

    Maybe Matt Kemp will only hit if he can rub Ethier’s head first or something.

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  16. Author
    josh

    @ Mish:
    Rizzo will suck no matter how well he’s doing. Soler is guaranteed to be either a bust or too expensive. Josh Hamilton will never play here because he loves living too much. The Cubs suck. The Cubs suck (It bears repeating). Draft picks will all be mediocre.

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  17. Author
    Mish

    @ josh:
    (dying laughing) I don’t even know why there’s a blog anymore if we’re just swapping in new names in our old canards.

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  18. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Mish wrote:

    just swapping in new names in our old canards.

    This describes every academic journal, ever.

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  19. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ josh:
    I think he certainly has the potential to be a very good player. But there’s just so much that can happen between destroying AAA and consistently hitting MLB pitching that I am trying not to expect too much from him, too soon.

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  20. Author
    josh

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I agree. I figure I can get my hopes up about one dude. On the other hand, like I said, I think the upside is that he’s a good to decent player on a really shitty team, so it’s not like I’m expecting miracles.

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  21. Author
    Mish

    @ WaLi:
    It’s been a while, but I don’t believe that’s changed since I last saw the gif. Much like everything else. (dying laughing)

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  22. gaius marius

    don’t say anything to anyone, but brett jackson is hitting .323/.359/.645 in his last 25 in the PCL. is his stock back to rising again?

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  23. Author
    Rice Cube

    Garrett (BG)

    Hi Bruce. With Javier Baez lurking down at Peoria, is there any chance the Cubs would look to move Castro to second base?

    Bruce Levine (1:44 PM)

    If they made a big organizational decision like that, it would come in the offseason, not midway through a championship year.

    (dying laughing)

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  24. gaius marius

    @ Mish:

    it’s fine to criticize Castro for not walking, i guess. obviously OBP is a huge part of the offensive game.

    but i wish there were more/better perspective on what Castro is doing. he’s 22. here is the all-time MLB list of players 21 and under sorted by WAR. it’s virtually a HOF media guide. most of the guys who are not in the Hall will be there eventually (Junior, Sherry Magee, ARod, Andruw, Paul Hines, Pudge Rodriguez, Miggy Cabrera) or were “mere” multiyear All-Stars (Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson, Stuffy McInnis, Jimmy Sheckard, Adrian Beltre, Cecil Travis, Buddy Bell, Edgar Renteria, Boog Powell, Gary Sheffield, Alan Trammell, Ruben Sierra, Rusty Staub, Phil Cavaretta, Eddie Yost) or brilliant early careers shortened (Buddy Lewis, Conigliaro, Fred Carroll, Reddy Mack, Kenny Hubbs).

    there are “losers” on the list — Dick Hoblitzel, Butch Wynegar, Rick Manning, Bob Bailey, Claudell Washington, Whitey Witt, Jack O’Connor, Cass Micheals, Ed Kranepool, Sibby Sisti, Frankie Gustine — but relatively few, most of them were quite good players and some occasional all-stars.

    the active kids on the list — Jason Heyward, Starlin, Elvis Andrus, Justin Upton — should obviously be watched closely.

    as a bonus, you can sort the list by %BB — Castro is near the end, just trailing Robin Yount but ahead of Bill Mazeroski, Orlando Cepeda, Ty Cobb, Travis Jackson and Roberto Clemente.

    EDIT: also excellent is to sort by BABIP: 1) Jimmie Foxx, 2) ARod, 3) Starlin, 4) Cecil Travis, 5) Rogers Hornsby, 6) Justin Upton, 7) Ted Williams, 8) Edgar Renteria, 9) Mickey Mantle, 10) Orlando Cepeda

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  25. Author
    jtsunami

    Am I wrong when my brain tells me that Rudy Jaramillo’s offenses never walked much? Maybe change of hitting philosophy?

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  26. Author
    josh

    @ gaius marius:
    He probably will never be a big OBP guy. There are successful player who aren’t. Sometimes a mix can add some excitement. I’d like to see him back to his average, in terms of walks, but I’m not sweating it.

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  27. Smokestack Lightning

    Not sure if serious.

    Eh, half. It’s a sad state of affairs for your team indeed when the only player to be even marginally excited about is a AAA first baseman whose fate is likely to be at best Adam LaRoche Part Deux.

    On the other hand, I’d like to be able to enjoy the possibilities of Rizzo being the next Joey Votto for a little bit without being reminded yet one more time he probably won’t be very good once he gets the call. I think we all understand the pitfalls with prospects around here. To quote the great Jerry Seinfeld, “it’s a gamble, I get it.”

    Hope wildly, expect realistically.

    Agreed.

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  28. Author
    dylanj

    as far as Rizzo goes we are Cubs fans so we are a jaded scarred lot. But I dont remember the last time we have had a 22 yr old destroying AAA the way Rizzo is. In my lifetime I’ve never seen a prospect do what he is doing. Thats reason enough to be excited.

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  29. Author
    josh

    Firing Jaramillo can only mean one thing:

    Josh Hamilton —> Cubs
    Pete Rose———–> Hall of Fame
    Castro ————–> Marrying Pete Rose
    Yount ————-> ?????
    WORLD SERIES!!!

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  30. Author
    josh

    @ dylanj:
    You actually follow the minor leagues. I’m willing to trust your judgement on this one. I’m excited to see Rizzo. I still think the team around him will blow for a few years, but maybe if he does well, it will inspire enough confidence in Theo to make some deals and build a team around him.

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  31. Author
    jtsunami

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Randy Wolf has been awful in the No. 4 spot, but Marco Estrada, who was solid replacing Chris Narveson as the No. 5, is about to begin his own rehab assignment. So the question: Do the Brewers believe Wolf will turn it around? Considering they’re paying him $9.5 million and that they’re already at or near their payroll budget, Wolf will be given a long leash.

    Trade suggestion: The Brewers are pitching heavy with their top prospects, but they’re unlikely to give up Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley or Tyler Thornburg for a rental player (although Peralta, Jungmann and Bradley haven’t impressed in the minors this season). So, umm .. well, there’s scrappy Double-A second baseman Scooter Gennett. The Cubs could then move Darwin Barney to shortstop and Starlin Castro to third base.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/25504/crystal-ball-dempster-lands-in-detroit

    WTF
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  32. Author
    dylanj

    honestly the only two arguments ive seen here for why we shouldn’t be giddy for Rizzo is this

    1. Other guys have also hit well in the PCL
    2. 120 bat AB’s last year in SD

    Neither of which are near the body of work he has created in his last year in AAA. I would be shocked if he wasn’t a 30 HR guy in the bigs. That Cashner trade seems pretty damn inspired if you ask me

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  33. Author
    dylanj

    i can top that JT- last week during the STARLIN DOESNT FOCUS! fiasco the Sox SB site was proposing getting Castro for Matt Barnes and Chris Carpenter. Because you know, they didn’t want to include their top prospects for him.

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  34. Author
    dylanj

    I can see Starlin ending up with 3500 hundred hits or so if health stays with him. I’m still in awe of what Rose did though and I don’t see anybody catching up to that.

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  35. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    I haven’t seen anyone point to his MLB experiennce and for good reason. No one is saying YOU can’t be giddy. Just accept there’s still a better chance he fails than there is that he succeeds. Or don’t.

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  36. Author
    dylanj

    i haven’t seen a good argument as to why its more likely he fails at this point. For a guy like Almora or Baez who are just drafted or in low a sure. But for a young guy to be this good at the closest thing to MLB pitching to be more likely to fail at this point that succeed? I doubt it.

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  37. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    I think he could get to 2000 if he’s healthy and I say that while being ridiculously optimistic. So optimistic that I don’t see another player I’d put money on to get to that number who have less than 1000 right now.

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  38. Author
    dylanj

    for him to end up at 2000 he would have to be out of baseball at 29 or really really slow down his hit rate. Even if castro never becomes a superstar a middle infielder who can hit .300 will always have a job.

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  39. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    Look at the top 100s each year and look at only the players in AAA. Tell me the rate that those players became bench players, utility players, every day guys, good and really good. You’ll find most of them do nothing at the big league level or never even reach it. The next highest percentage will be those who are bench guys and then so on. It’s not easy to be good at Major League Baseball. Much more likely than not, Rizzo becomes a member of the group that isn’t good or really good.

    It’s not about being jaded or being a Cubs fan. It’s about being realistic and understanding that even the best prospects fail. There’s also a reason people have come up with the AAAA term. It’s because some guys can kill AAA pitching, but aren’t good at the MLB level. I think it’s a bogus term and don’t like it, but it’s used by a lot of people and there are a lot of player that would fit into that group.

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  40. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    For him to end below 2000 he’d have to hurt his leg on a slide, takeout, running the bases, walking home at night, stepping out of the elevator, and so on. That’s enough to lower his BABIP (which will regress anyway) and the hits will stop piling up. Batting average is the least consistent stat year to year.

    Tony Gwynn was one of the best “pure” hitters I’ve ever seen in my life. He didn’t get to 2000 hits until he was 33 years old and ended his career with just over 3100. One advantage Gwynn has is that he walked a lot more than Castro, but we should expect Castro’s walk rate to improve as it’s a skill that improves into the 40s. If he starts walking more he gets fewer hits. If he develops power like some thing he’ll be pitched around more and so on.

    3500 is wildly optimistic.

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  41. Nate

    @ Berselius22:

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    Hey, it worked for the Angels this year. The singular reason to fire Jaramillo is that he doesn’t teach the organizations philosophy. If that were the case, he should have been let go before the season began.

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  42. Author
    mb21

    And Garry Templeton had 2096 and I’m not sure there have been two more similar players at similar ages in the minors and at the MLB level than Castro and Templeton.

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  43. Author
    josh

    @ Nate:
    That’s pretty much right. Maybe they figured it wouldn’t hurt to let him ride out his contract, but they liked this other guy more or something. Or he took a shit in Dale Sveum’s coffee as a practical joke. That’ll get you fired like 8 times out of 10.

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  44. Author
    mb21

    3000 seems high too. Craig Biggio and Tony Gwynn didn’t top that by much and while Castro deserves to be compared to some greats for what he’s done so far, those guys stayed healthy and played a long time. We can’t expect the same from Castro.

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  45. Author
    mb21

    Boggs barely cleared 3000 though he didn’t make his debut until he was 24. Still, it’s hard to get 3000 hits. Even if you already have 2000 hits, it’s damn hard to get the other 1000.

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  46. Author
    mb21

    If Castro got to 3500 I’d assume he’d stay in baseball until he had 3515 hits so he pass Tris Speaker for 5th all time. Castro is good. He’s 22 and a whole lot of shit can happen between now and when he’s in his 40s.

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  47. Author
    Mucker

    What will Castro have to keep his BABIP at for the rest of his career to reach 3000? Can somebody with a spreadsheet figure that out please?

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  48. Author
    mb21

    Also, I think we all hope Castro becomes more patient. That will cost him hits. I think we all want him to develop more power. That too will cost him hits as he’ll be pitched around more. To even think about 3500 Castro has to remain as he is right now. Healthy, low walk, low power, swings at about everything close, above average speed, high babip. If I knew he was going to do that and get 3500 hits I’d be thrilled. Go for it, but I hope he improves his walk rate, power, stops swinging so much and I know that player’s speed peaks in their early 20s.

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  49. Author
    mb21

    @ Mucker:
    I’m not sure you could figure it out unless we knew at what age he’d pass it and how many PA per season he would get in that amount of time. A general answer to your question is that his BABIP will have to remain where it is to get there.

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  50. Author
    Suburban kid

    Seriously, it’s staring us in the face.

    OV Blog should have a major contest with an epic prize for guessing Castro’s career hit total. Sure, the blog will probably be dead by then but we can check the results on the Wayback Machine. MB21 will still be around so he can organize the prize delivery. If I win but I’m dead by then, give my prize to mish

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  51. gaius marius

    @ dylanj:
    dylanj wrote:

    I dont remember the last time we have had a 22 yr old destroying AAA the way Rizzo is.

    Soto as a catcher back in 2007 was 24 and killing the PCL. that was pretty exciting, but he was 24. i looked back to 1977 on baseball cube for something comparable to what Rizzo is doing, and there really isn’t anything.

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  52. gaius marius

    mb21 wrote:

    @ gaius marius:
    I can see 3000, but 3500 sounds like crazy talk to me.

    only because he’s started so young. your example of Gwynn is a good one, but he also didn’t get a full season in until his age 24 year. Starlin may have 800+ hits piled up before his age 24 year starts.

    still, 3000 is a ton, i agree. even looking at his most-similar-through-21 comps on baseball reference, there’s a bunch of 2000-hit comps in the top ten but no 3000-hit guys. some great players and HOFers there too — garry templeton (2096), arky vaughn (HOF, 2103 with time out for ww2), dick bartell (2165, also out ww2), jim fregosi (1726), travis jackson (HOF, 1768 and done at age 32), vern stephens (1859 and done at 34), bobby doerr (HOF, 2042 out ww2 and done at 33), rogers hornsby (HOF, 2930)

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  53. gaius marius

    mb21 wrote:

    Also, I think we all hope Castro becomes more patient. That will cost him hits. I think we all want him to develop more power. That too will cost him hits as he’ll be pitched around more. To even think about 3500 Castro has to remain as he is right now. Healthy, low walk, low power, swings at about everything close, above average speed, high babip. If I knew he was going to do that and get 3500 hits I’d be thrilled. Go for it, but I hope he improves his walk rate, power, stops swinging so much and I know that player’s speed peaks in their early 20s.

    yeah, you have to want him to be as gwynn or kirby puckett were, more or less — very few walks, very few Ks, keep BABIP near .350 for as long as you can.

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  54. Author
    josh

    Byrd was released. He never came back to full form after the face injury, or that’s the storyline I keep imagining, anyway.

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  55. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Apparently Theo said Jaramillo was shitcanned because the team needed “a new voice and a focus on the mental side of hitting.” He also noted the team OBP of the Cubs has dropped in 5 straight years. (dying laughing)

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  56. Author
    josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    I had a physics professor who always used Star Wars figures to demonstrate physics problems. It’s just a gimmick, though. It’s not like we were calculating the thrust of Boba Fett’s jet pack, it was really just a weight-on-a-string problem. I always thought that was lame-oh.

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  57. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Score quoting Theo as saying Rizzo’s knee is structurally sound, but they are running further tests.

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  58. Author
    mb21

    gaius marius wrote:

    Soto as a catcher back in 2007 was 24 and killing the PCL. that was pretty exciting, but he was 24. i looked back to 1977 on baseball cube for something comparable to what Rizzo is doing, and there really isn’t anything.

    24 year old catchers doing what he did was awfully damn impressive. We talked about it at the time, but the list of catchers doing what he did at that age was small. And the list of players it included were greats.

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  59. Author
    mb21

    @ gaius marius:
    The comparison between Castro and Templeton is amazing in my opinion. Bryan Smith looked at Castro before he reached the big leagues and the player he was most comparable to (identical!) in the minors was Templeton. Their MLB stats through their first two seasons were remarkably similar. Renteria was another guy Smith talked about it and it’s a good comparison at this point too. I know Templeton had somewhat of a down 3rd season in the big leagues, but was pretty good the next few. It’s going to be interesting to look at that comp after 5 years of big league time. I’m betting they’re still similar. If there is a difference it’s going to be after that. In other words, Castro will maintain what Templeton couldn’t. I’m still not betting money on that because I just think it’s too damn hard to be that good at baseball. There are so many things that can go wrong. An insignificant knee injury can hamper a player for a few years and maybe longer. A more significant one can change the player entirely. Getting hit on the wrist. Being taken out during a DP. Getting hit in the head by a pitch. The list goes on and on and on.

    Gwynn, Biggio and the other guys who reached 3000 went through all that and stayed healthy. I just don’t believe it’s reasonable to expect the same from someone. Even if he’s as good as Castro is as at that age.

    BTW, I’d have said the same thing about ARod at this age too. Sometimes I’ll be wrong, but most of the time I’m going to be right because baseball is a cruel game. Sports are cruel in general. To stay at the top of the game like the greats have is so ridiculously difficult that I can safely say there’s only one player I ever though had a chance to be an all-time great within the first few years of his career: Barry Bonds. The list begins and ends there and he’s arguably the greatest position player off all-time. Ruth edges him out since he also pitched early on, but in terms of batting, there’s little difference between the two. Early in Bonds career I was taking the over on just about any milestone. There’s no comparable player to him that I’ve seen in my life.

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  60. Berselius22

    Castro is probably not going to develop OBP skill, but he will develop power. That could change his hit rate, both in a change in approach and how he is pitched

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  61. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    gaius marius wrote:

    Soto as a catcher back in 2007 was 24 and killing the PCL. that was pretty exciting, but he was 24. i looked back to 1977 on baseball cube for something comparable to what Rizzo is doing, and there really isn’t anything.

    Right now, Rizzo is carrying a 1.143 OPS. Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in 2008, but he was 28. In 2009, a 26 YO Jake Fox carried a 1.338 (!!!!) OPS over 194 PA. In 2006, a 22 YO Howie Kendrick OPS’d 1.039. In 2005, a 22 YO Rickie Weeks OPS’d 1.090. In 2004, a 23 YO Dallas McPherson OPS’d 1.049. 2001, a 24 YO Torii Hunter OPs’d 1.130. In 1999, the immortal Roosevelt Brown (23 YO at the time) OPS’d 1.114. A 23 YO Jeremy Giambi OPS’d 1.103 in 1998. In 1997, a 22 YO Mark Bellhorn OPS’d 1.037 and a 22 YO Paul Konerko OPS’d 1.028. and in 1995, a 19 YEAR OLD A-Rod OPS’d 1.057. I could go on, but there’s plenty of precedent in PCL history for what Rizzo is doing, and to my mind, what A-Rod did in 1995 is far more impressive, because he did it at 19 years of age and while playing a premium defensive position.

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  62. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Just one more. 1994, Billy Ashley OPS’d 1.129 in 453 PCL PA. He was 23 years old. He was a two-time PCL MVP, and 3-time Dodgers Minor League PoY. In 1995, he carried a 1.022 OPS until being called up. He carried a .716 MLB OPS in 688 career PA, and was out of baseball by 2001.

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  63. srbutch5

    There is also an extensive list of players who didn’t OPS over 1.000 in the PCL, who became very good players. Hope. Monster.

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  64. Berselius

    srbutch5 wrote:

    “What more can be said about Rizzo? ”
    Well now you can say he’s injured…
    Thanks dj

    DJ, you need to start talking shit about Brett Jackson and Javier Baez. I bet they’ve been hanging out in PJ Franceson’s puppy mill.

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  65. Doogolas

    I believe he meant 22 year olds doing what Rizzo is doing. All of the people listed are a solid .100 points below Rizzo or 4+ years older.

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  66. Doogolas

    Also he did it in Alberquerque Which makes te rest of the PCL look like Petco. And his k rate was crazy even in those 93/94 seasons.

    And if we’re playing the ‘extensive list of guys that didn’t OPS 1.000 and became good’ game then why bother even mentioning the minors. Certainly we shouldn’t be pessimistic on Vitters for that very reason.

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  67. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Doogolas:
    I think you need to read the list again.
    2001, Torii Hunter, 24, .013 less than Rizzo
    1999, Roosevelt Brown, 23, .029 less than Rizzo.
    1994, Billy Ashley, 23, .015 less than Rizzo

    That’s three, and I only went back to 1994. Rizzo’ been incredible. That much is undeniable, and his performance is very encouraging for the future of this franchise. But his performance is not without precedent, and it’s still not as impressive as what A-Rod did.

    Look, I know eliding and strawmen are fun, but be perfectly clear: I AM NOT SAYING RIZZO WILL BUST.

    To repeat, for the hard of reasoning: I. Am. Not. Saying. Rizzo. Will. Bust.

    I’m simply saying that what he is doing isn’t so earthshaking that we should pencil the guy into the lineup for the next 10 years. He’s having a fantastic season, but let’s not pretend that it’s anything more than that.

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  68. Doogolas

    I don’t know where I strawman’d anything. And I don’t know what eliding is. But the point was more: If you can’t get excited a about what Rizzo is doing, then is there anything to ever get excited about with a minor leaguer?

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  69. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ dylanj:
    Oh, man, I was totally in the bag for Tyler Houston. And Ty Griffin. I thought Ty Griffin was going to be the second coming of Bo Jackson. (dying laughing)

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  70. Doogolas

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Oh. Fair enough. I think that’s fair then. I just got the impression that everyone is kind of ‘It means nothing because it’s in the PCL.’ line of thinking. And in this case ‘everyone’ is like 3 people but still.

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  71. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Doogolas:
    I think it would be foolish to say it means nothing because the league is hitter-friendly, but the hitter-friendliness of the league in which he’s doing this should be taken into account. I’m just trying to balance my excitement with acknowledgement that (1) this is a good young hitter shredding a league that a lot of very good young hitters have shredded and (2) that many more hot young prospects fail than succeed.

    But this kid is most definitely an incredible talent and I’m anxious to see him play in the bigs.

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  72. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    PSU knew about Sandusky’s sexual abuse and did nothing. Thankfully they kept a secret file chronicling their moral bankruptcy: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-57451567-504083/penn-state-officials-kept-secret-file-on-sandusky-allegations-says-attorney-general/

    Those documents filed by the Attorney General’s office late Monday indicate Schultz told so many lies in his Grand Jury testimony that it was impossible to respond to each and every one of them.

    Ye gods.

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  73. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    I’m still not sure what to think about Castro’s lack of walks. I have an inveterate distaste for his lack of patience, but he makes so much contact that it’s hard to say “stop swinging the bat.” For now I’m going to say that I want him to be more selective, and if that means more walks and fewer hits, then I’m comfortable with that.

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  74. Author
    GBTS

    @ GBTS:
    That’s like your buddy sending you child pornography via G-mail, and then just transferring it to your “Important Stuff” folder.

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  75. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ GBTS:
    No idea. Plus, the grand jury asked for it, and it just got turned over today during the criminal trial. I still think this jury is stacked for a mistrial at the least, but these idiots have given the feds enough to bury them for good.

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  76. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    Actually, I know exactly why you hold on to it. Because when you need to fire Sandusky and make him a scapegoat, should any of this have gotten out before he retired, that file is a helluva way to insulate yourself from a wrongful termination suit, as well as to keep Sandusky from singing to the feds.

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  77. Author
    SVB

    @ josh:
    …and the 2 that don’t get fired are Don Zimmer and Lance Parrish for Kirk Gibson.

    @ GBTS:
    To give Mish something to do, apparently.

    Welcome back Mish. Oh yeah, you missed me coming up with some excellent ways to beat the luxury tax, and sign Josh Hamilton, if only the CBA and luxury tax worked the way I wanted them too, and not how they really do. Facepalm for Skip. (dying laughing)

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  78. Author
    mb21

    @ Doogolas:
    Stats matter no matter where they happen. Some splits matter (left, right, day night, home road, maybe a couple others). Context is what is important. Context includes playing time. Rizzo has been awesome at AAA, but it’s still only one season. How many players have we seen have a really good season only to not be so good after that (Soto, Rich Hill, Patterson, the list goes on and on). Context includes a lot of others things that just aren’t worth getting into (at least I don’t care enough to).

    Rizzo is having a great first half of the season and when combined with his half season of AAA last year it’s an excellent full season (nearly full season anyway). But it’s one season. And it’s at AAA. Yes, he’s 22 and what he’s doing is impressive, but being a 22 YO first baseman simply isn’t as impressive as being a 22 year old SS or even a CF who is 23 and probably not even a catcher who is 24. Context!

    Rizzo is more than likely going to be valuable at the big league level. That’s true just because he’s cost-controlled, but a great player? More than likely not. Is average good enough for you people because it sure as hell is for me. I’ll be thrilled to get league average or slightly above league average production for league minimum. I’ll call it a huge win for the Cubs and won’t complain one bit. It’s also probably what the Cubs get from Rizzo so I am excited. I’m just not 500 home runs excited as it seems some others are.

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  79. Author
    EnricoPallazzo

    josh wrote:

    I had a physics professor who always used Star Wars figures to demonstrate physics problems. It’s just a gimmick, though. It’s not like we were calculating the thrust of Boba Fett’s jet pack, it was really just a weight-on-a-string problem. I always thought that was lame-oh.

    i always found that incredibly patronizing and really fucking annoying. you aren’t making this class any more interesting by incorporating some vaguely relevant reference. also, and i realize this is a generalization, but the star wars geeks that would get off on that probably have some baseline interest in physics anyway and don’t need to be pandered to.

    @ GBTS:

    everyone knows that you immediately move it to a folder labeled “this is not child porn”

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