The 2013 Hall of Fame class and the Keltner List

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8984 Comments

Over a year ago I applied the Keltner List test to Sammy Sosa and figured I’d do the same thing for most of the eligible candidates just for fun. Bill James came up with the Keltner List back in 1985 and I’ll let Wiki explain.

The Keltner list is a systematic but non-numerical method for determining whether a baseball player is deserving of election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. It makes use of an inventory of questions (mostly yes-or-no format) regarding the merit of players relative to their peers. Enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is one of the highest honors in sports, with only 234 players having been inducted as of 2011. Election to the Hall is also permanent. However, selection for the Hall is by election; no “cut-offs” or objective criteria exist (other than rules about how players become eligible for election). It can therefore be difficult for voters and fans alike to determine which former players are deserving of the honor.

The Keltner list comprises 15 questions designed to aid in the thought process. Each question is designed to be relatively easy to answer.

So there you have it.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

I’m sure people have argued at one time or another that the following eligible candidates were the best in the game: Jeff Bagwell, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. It’s possible some argued that Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker were the best at one time or another.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

All of the players named above were at one time probably the best player on their team. From this point forward, I’ll only be using those players named in the first question.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Arguments can be made that at one point in time or another that each of those 10 were the best at his position. Bonds, Clemens and Piazza are perhaps the best ever at their respective positions.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

6 times between 1997 and 2005 the Astros reached the postseason. Clemens was a part of two of those teams and others as well. Schilling, Bonds and Edgar, yes. Walker, Raines and Sosa, perhaps.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

I consider the prime to be prior to age 30 so the answer for all of them is yes as far as I’m concerned.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds is the best player ever not in the Hall of Fame and there can only be one.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Yes. All of these players are more than qualified for the Hall of Fame based on career WAR.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Yes, see number 7.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

 Unfortunately, the answer to this question is yes for several of the players: Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and McGwire. Possibly for Piazza and Bagwell and maybe others, but really, who can know who took steroids with any certainty and to what degree the stats were helped by it?

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Piazza, Edgar (DH) yes. Obviously Schilling, McGwire are no. I’d assume the others are too, but I’m not positive and too lazy to look it up.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

  • Bagwell won 1 MVP, finished in the top 10 6 times (4 AS)
  • Biggio finished in the top 10 3 times (7 AS)
  • Raines 3 top 10 finishes (7 AS)
  • Edgar 2 top 10 finishes (7 AS)
  • Walker won 1 MVP, finished in top 10 4 times (5 AS)
  • McGwire 5 top 10 finishes (12 AS)
  • Clemens won an MVP, finished 6 times in the top 10, won 7 Cy Young Awards, finished in top 10 CYA 11 times (11 AS)
  • Bonds 7 MVP awards, 13 top 10 finishes (14 AS)
  • Piazza 7 top 10 finishes (12 AS)
  • Schilling 2 top 10 MVP, 4 CYA top 10 (6 AS)
  • Sosa 1 MVP, 7 top 10 finishes (7 AS)

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

See question 11

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Yes for all of them.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

I don’t know how to answer this question. No player here was like Jackie Robinson. None of them invented a pitch, were responsible for rule changes that I’m aware of or had much or anything to do with new equipment.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I’m going to pass on this question considering so many others have failed to uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider.

 Sadly, it appears that no one may get elected to the Hall of Fame though it seems more likely at least one gets in since MLB Network decided to announce it live.

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Comments

  1. GW

    Myles wrote:

    310 PA of .322/.410/.641 at age 19 is extremely impressive. Give him 650 PA, and he also hit 39 HR and 48 doubles

    it’s impressive, but we shouldn’t forget that by all accounts he looked overmatched in extended spring training (189/306/379 in 111 PA). there is no official scorer there for those games so they don’t show up in his official minor league numbers, but that’s why we have arizona phil!

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  2. Author
    dmick89

    I don’t see why the Cubs would go after Rick Porcello. That never made much sense to me. He’s not very good. He’s up for arbitration again and will make $4 million or so. No thanks.

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  3. Rice Cube

    @ dmick89:
    I didn’t see the new shit-o-matic warning but from the last thread when WaLi suggested floating Soriano, maybe they can send Soriano over to the O’s and have the O’s throw the prospect over to Detroit so the Cubs can get Porcello on the “cheap” (in terms of prospects). Of course that gets into the whole quandary of how you replace Soriano’s offense…

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  4. GW

    @ dmick89:

    yeah, it’s a little strange. i’m guessing it would be a scouting bet on him improving, based on his pedigree and his uptick in velocity last season.

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  5. bubblesdachimp

    @ GW:

    motherfuckers start slow all the time. Maybe he was pissed he didnt get assigned to a full league team and sulked.

    What he actually did is more impressive to me

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  6. GW

    also, if you are in favor of bringing the DH to the NL, that’s fine and dandy, but I wouldn’t base my decision on a fat 19 year old who has yet to play full season ball.

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  7. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    I’d put less weight in ExSt. stats than I would any of the winter league stats. This seems to be the consensus among scouts on Vogelbach:

    Scouting Report: Vogelbach has more usable power than Baez or Jorge Soler, which is saying a lot. He has plenty of bat speed and strength, but Vogelbach does more than just grip it and rip it. He earns high marks for his advanced approach and feel for hitting. He controls the strike zone, takes walks and uses the entire field with an effortless swing. He can get pull-conscious at times but generally hits from gap to gap.

    All numbers up to and even including AA (and AAA) should be taken lightly though. There’s still far more things that can go wrong than right for Vogelbach.

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  8. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    No winter ball for him. I don’t think that’s uncommon. The winter leagues are generally considered to be somewhere between AA and AAA so throwing him in Winter League would be like bumping him to AA/AAA. If he has a good season next year and reaches High A I think he’ll play in Winter League somewhere.

    Then again, he’s probably not have gotten cut by a winter league team like Vitters did. (dying laughing)

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  9. Author
    dmick89

    @ Rice Cube:
    It did happen to me about a year ago while blowing my damn nose. I felt something pop and didn’t think much about it at the time, but an hour later I could barely fucking move.

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  10. Author
    dmick89

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    They might be to some extent. AL teams can more easily sign a position player to a big contract because they have the DH that they can move him to years down the road. That certainly has an impact on the early end, but might benefit the NL down the road.

    I’ve said this a million times, but to me it comes down to one simple thing: pitcher don’t give a shit if they can hit. It’s no longer part of their jobs so they spend as little time possible doing it (and they should, pitching is their job!).

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  11. mikeakaleroy

    My issue with the DH is the current Cubs staff has issues getting 8 “regular” batters out….Now you expect them to get 9 out? Impossible.

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  12. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    I once broke a rib coughing. It was when I had the flu, so every time I coughed or sneezed it felt like I was getting a knife in my side. It’s the sorta shit that’s really funny when it’s happening to someone else…

    On Vogelbach, I’ve said it before but it does seem to me like it’s a lot easier to get a kid into shape than it is to teach him to become an elite hitter (which for his age/level, the consensus seems that Vogelbach already is). And I have a lot more faith in the Cubs taking shit like offseason player development seriously than I used to.

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  13. Mucker

    I’m with you Uncle Dave. The fact that this kid at 19 is overweight is not a big deal. The fact that he might be one of the top hitters in MiLB is a big deal. If the Cubs think he’s got the potential to be a plus power hitter, then they should be getting him involved in condititioning programs. Some guys are always going to be bigger so if he can lose 50 lbs of fat and add 20 pounds of muscle, he could keep his power but have a better body. I think his weight issue is overblown.

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  14. Author
    dmick89

    Apparently the O’s are also interested in Porcello so why not just trade Hardy for Porcello plus? I think this 3-team talk is bullshit. Doesn’t make sense.

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  15. Fordyce Messbaum, Retired Pushcart Baron

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    Matt Murton?

    Oh, I missed the “intentionally”.

    Still, I bet it is not someone like Sammy Sosa or Joey Gathright.

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  16. uncle dave

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    Could be. I’ve read that he’s lost some weight since turning pro. Don’t underestimate the value of having elite-level fitness professionals and facilities at your disposal. Hell, I once lost 50 pounds without any of that stuff, so how tough could it be?

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  17. Author
    dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    You make a good point about it being a hell of a lot easier to lose weight or stay in shape than it is to improve hitting, which is pretty fucking difficult. Ryan Theriot can’t become a power hitter, but if Ryan Theriot was fat, he could lose weight.

    I’m not too worried about Vogelbach’s weight to be honest. The guy is very big, but if he hits as some of the scouts seem to think he’ll do, it won’t much matter. Maybe he won’t be able to play 1st base and he’ll have to be a DH, which will probably suck for the Cubs, but he’ll be able to play (Prince Fielder has no problem playing at a very high level).

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  18. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    They’ll have to ship him from city to city via freight train, though, so that might make some of the longer trips or quicker turnarounds between series problematic. Still, if you can hit, you can hit.

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  19. bubblesdachimp

    @ dmick89:

    I assume it has to be the shitty player since i was under the impression he only IBB’d one guy when he faced the cubs.

    He was one of my favortie players growing up FWIW. I modeled my baseball career after him. (I flamed out in 7th grade)

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  20. Author
    dmick89

    Updated HOF Ballots:

    Updated 6:45 ~ 146 Full Ballots ~ (25.5% of vote ~ based on last year)

    Cooperstown = Ghost town? %.

    69.2 – Biggio
    63.7 – J. Morris
    62.3 – Raines
    61.6 – Bagwell
    58.2 – Piazza
    43.2 – Clemens
    43.2 – Bonds
    39.7 – L. Smith
    38.4 – Schilling
    37.7 – E. Martinez
    37.0 – Trammell
    21.2 – D. Murphy
    18.5 – McGriff
    15.8 – L. Walker
    14.1 – S. Sosa
    14.4 – Raffy
    13.7 – McGwire
    8.9 – Mattingly
    ———————————
    2.7 – Lofton
    2.1 – P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
    2.1 – Bernie Williams
    1.4 – D. Wells
    0.7 – J. Franco
    0.7 – S. Alomar Jr.
    0.7 – S. Green

    This means Biggio needs about 77.2% of the remaining voters if the number of voters is equal to last year.

    Morris needs 77.6%, Raines 78.3%, 79% for Bagwell, 80% for Piazza and 84.6% for both Bonds and Clemens. (may have mixed up my numbers here, but those are pretty close). Unless MLB Network wants to air a show that announces nobody, I believe Biggio was the only player elected to the Hall of Fame.

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  21. Author
    dmick89

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    He did IBB only one, but there were two players who he IBB’d that played for the Cubs. Both played for other teams so I didn’t know which one it was who he walked on the Cubs. Was it a catcher?

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  22. Author
    dmick89

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    Yeah, that’s too bad too. He’s more of a borderline candidate than some of the others, but he’s still good enough to get in. He should definitely be on the ballot longer, but it won’t matter anyway. Say Biggio gets in and nobody else does, it will only be harder and harder for others in the future to get in. Next year you have 4 hall of famers who become eligible and it will be difficult for them (including Maddux). By 2014 there could be 19 legitimate hall of fame candidates on the ballot and more than likely at that point, no one gets in because the vote is split.

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  23. bubblesdachimp

    @ dmick89:

    Yea bubbs debated this on his listserve today. Basically he is afraid that Maddux might not make it next year due to the following segments of itiots.

    -The we dont vote for anyone on the first ballot (probably around 4%)
    -The we dont vote for anyone from the steroid era contingent
    -The we dont vote for anyone who we suspected of using contingent (guarantee .4 percent of voting population thinks he used)
    -The blank ballot contingent
    -The we only vote for hitters and people like Jack Morris and Lee Smith contingent

    Basically the hall of fame is fucked if only Biggio is elected tomorrow.

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  24. GW

    @ dmick89:

    I think Maddux is a shoe-in no matter how crowded the ballot. He’s a poster child among the old school crowd for the “clean player” even though I think he probably put some moisture on the baseball from time to time.

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  25. bubblesdachimp

    Bubbles was wrong. The threshold of voters who wont vote for a first time appears to be 1.5% if we use Cal as the gold standard

    edit: It was fun talking baseball today with yall!!! Will be around more often

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  26. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    I’d like to think so, but I think it depends. I can easily see a situation in which he doesn’t get in. I do think he will, but he probably won’t get the 95%+ that he’d have gotten with a less crowded ballot. There are going to be some who vote in other guys they’ve been voting in who haven’t yet gotten in. Some won’t vote because it’s the first ballot. I think he’s the most likely player to get elected in the next 4 to 6 years.

    When do Morris and Smith come off the ballot?

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  27. GW

    A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.

    If I understand this correctly, it means this is Murphy’s last chance.

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  28. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    When Smith and Morris are off the ballot that will make things a little easier in that voters won’t be throwing votes at players who don’t deserve them at such a high rate.

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  29. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    Yeah, you have 15 years on the ballot if you get, what, 5%? Do you have to get 5% each year? Say a player got 5.1%, would he be on it for the next 14 even if it fell below 5% in the 2nd year?

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  30. GW

    . The duty of the Screening Committee shall be to prepare a ballot listing in alphabetical order eligible candidates who (1) received a vote on a minimum of five percent (5%) of the ballots cast in the preceding election

    5% per year

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  31. Rizzo the Rat

    GW wrote:

    I think he probably put some moisture on the baseball from time to time.

    That doesn’t count as cheating for some reason.

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  32. Edwin

    http://espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/id/8814011/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-do-not-belong-baseball-hall-fame

    At this point, I don’t even give a shit why they are/are not voting for anyone. I just think writing an article like that about your voting, as if it’s some big deal, is fucking lame. Like these writers have some sacred responsibility to honor the hall of fame or some shit. Get the fuck over yourself. If they cared so much, they should have done their job and reported shit back when it was happening.

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  33. Edwin

    Does anyone here have any experiance with blackout restrictions for online sports streaming services? I’m hoping NHL isn’t completely stupid, and offers their online game watching thing at a good discount so that I can watch the Blackhawks. But if I live in Milwaukee, I don’t want to be blacked out from the games. Are local area blackouts the same for hockey as baseball?

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  34. WaLi

    @ Edwin:
    I think the blackout rule is if you can get it on local cable network TV, then you can’t watch it on Center Ice. I live in NC, so I can’t watch Center Ice if the Blackhawks play the Hurricanes.

    But there isn’t a Hockey team in Wisconsin so it isn’t as cut and dry. Are you able to get CSN-Chicago or WGN Chicago? If so, then Center Ice will probably not work.

    They should offer it at a discount since there are only half as many games and they don’t want to piss off their fans any more. They usually do half way through the season anyways.

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  35. mikeakaleroy

    @ Edwin:
    I actually sent the NHL Center Ice folk an email about this a couple years ago with my zip code and they replied back fairly quickly. Blackout restrictions need to go away quickly. As soon as they do, I’ll drop cable, and just pick up Center Ice and MLB.tv.

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