Over the last few days, we've seen ramblings here and there that have indicated the Cubs are heavily in on Masahiro Tanaka. Jayson Stark tweeted about owners talking about the Cubs. Bruce Levine tweeted this morning that he had a source that the Cubs were believed to be the front-runners.
Now, Tom Loxas has tweeted specifics of the offer:
Heard #Cubs offer for Tanaka in 160 mil neighborhood plus posting fee.
— TomLoxas (@TomLoxas) January 19, 2014
That is an incredibly strong offer over 7 years and almost certainly an overpay which could be tough to beat. So you have to start liking the Cubs odds a bit more now.
And that is what scares the hell out of me.
I have been girding my loins in preparation for the news that Tanaka will be a Yankee pretty much this whole off-season. Until recently, there really was nothing that would make me think otherwise. But now… I'm having these feelings of… I'm not quite sure… could it be… hope?
But this is where it gets dangerous for Cubs fans and we should probably get ready for the anvil to fall on our head or the Acme rocket to blow up in our face. Are we really comfortable getting too giddy about anything until it's a done deal?
This is going to be a loooong week as we wait for a final decision. Hold onto your butts.
Comments
Deadline is January 24 (Friday) at 4 PM Central. Assume he signs with the Cubs, he needs a day to fly in for the medicals (because you assume they’ll want to double and triple check). Let’s say he decides Monday, uses all of Tuesday to travel, does medicals on Wednesday, deal is done by Thursday, presser Friday.
#Hope
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If 7/160 is the offer, hard to see it getting beat.
Then again, I thought 5/50 was a lock to land Rafael Furcal way back when.
One thing to keep in mind with the Yankees. Tanaka costs them a lot more than just his salary. Resetting their salary cap penalty this offseason has been estimated to potentially save the Yankees as much as 80MM over the next few seasons. Signing Tanaka forfeits those savings.
Maybe we’ll get lucky, the Yankees will decide 25MM per on Tanaka (plus the forfeiture of savings) is madness, opt to reset their luxury tax penalty this offseason, and spend big on Scherzer, Shields, and Homer Bailey next offseason, all players I would expect the Cubs to pass on due to age.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Regardless of how this ends up, even if the Cubs get beat out, if 7/160 is their offer, that’s a strong fucking offer, and seems to negate the claim that there’s no money to spend and that the Cubs won’t attempt to spend it when a player they really want comes along.
They’re just really fucking picky these days.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning wrote:
Totally agree. If they get beat, or he just decides he wants to pitch somewhere else, then I’m satisfied the Cubs did everything within reason to land him. I’ll be disappointed, yes, but I won’t hold it against the Cubs.
Aisle424Quote Reply
And here’s Gordo to double down on his sources being supreme and the Cubs not being close at all:
https://twitter.com/GDubCub/status/424744849888141312
I don’t care if he ends up being right. Wittenmyer is a twat. Even if the Cubs have to go to 8/300 to land Tanaka it might be worth it just to get a mea culpa from that smug motherfucker.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Gordo, right on cue.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo, Subliminal Assassin Guru, Esquire:
Do you know where I can get some overpriced accent pieces for my new condo? Maybe a big white horse statue?
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
424’s new underwear, in prep for Tanaka decision
[img]http://saratoday.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/chastity-belt-front-or-back.jpg[/img]
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
Kaplan’s many sources suggest that the Cubs made a strong offer (met or beat the D’Backs’ offer of 6/$120MM) but the team shittiness is a major issue. Should know by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
If the Cubs are closer to the DBacks offer than the other offers we’ve been hearing, they might as well have not even contacted his people. 6/120 ain’t gonna get this shit done.
You have to offer enough money that issues like “team shittiness” don’t even factor into the equation.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
Last relevant tweet from Loxas suggested Cubs went $160mm+
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If Tanaka bets on himself, he’d rather take 6/$120 over 8/$160. A frontline starter is making a lot more than $20M in seven years, and he’d set himself up for a much longer/larger second contract by not locking himself in for that long.
If 6/$120 ends up being what the offer was, well, the White Sox could offer that. If $160 is not good enough, I can’t imagine anyone is upset. Cubs just can’t play the budget card in 2016 or 2017 if they go into this year with such a piss poor payroll.
JQuote Reply
And Tom Loxas is………a blogger on ChicagoNow?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
The difference between the Cubs and national sportswriters is odd. I know the Cubs sportswriters suck, but I feel they’re closer to the truth. Of course, I still think each and every team is a long shot to acquire Tanaka so maybe that’s the difference. The Cubs writers don’t quite understand percentages. Makes perfect sense.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
According to this shit http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/tanaka.html
And the Loxas shit, it would appear as follows
CHC – 7/$160
ARI – 6/$120
LAD – 6/$120
NYY – 6/$120
Since the Nikkan article says “nearly all these clubs are putting together offers worth more than $100MM over six years, we can assume either/both CHW or LAA came in below 6/$100. The same link says LAA owner has expressed doubts about fitting Tanaka into his budget.
If he really wants to be in LA I guess he can justify it based on all the reasons stated. I doubt his wife has a hope in hell “becoming a star” if she can’t speak English though.
%hope monster
Suburban kidQuote Reply
*rationalizing self kicks in*
It’s tough to quantify what’s an overpay since I think $WAR is going to be drastically changing over the next few years due to the CBA and new TV contracts.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
I think the Cubs extend Shark as well if they sign Tanaka
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
Ace Cubs beat reporter Nick Cafardo says he’s hearing the terms could get as high as 6/120
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/01/19/expert-predicts-rod-will-swing-miss-appeal/ioBRyIpyyxEFvd5OksmfLL/story.html
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
I would assume they do too.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
I think it’s interesting how different some of the sources think the Tanaka contract is going to be. I’ve seen 6/120 thrown around a lot and according to RLYW, there was even a source that said 8/180 (Cubs). Maybe he meant $160 million since I hadn’t seen the other figure before.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
This appears to be one of those rare times where Cafardo doesn’t have an inside track on what’s going on. His post seems one step removed from, “Hey, did you hear? Masahiro Tanaka might be posted!”
Just don’t see 6/120 getting it done for anybody.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
I have no idea what it’s going to take. 6/100 won’t surprise me and 8/180 won’t either. For that matter, 8/200 won’t be too surprising. There’s probably as much misinformation going around as anything.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Agreed. Thing to remember is that regardless of where majority of the bids are landing, Cubs have to substantially outbid them all to have a realistic chance. Have they done that? Probably not. They may have the highest offer, but not by enough.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
Two, three days is all I ask.
&Hope Monster
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
If the Cubs put in a competitive bid I won’t complain. Really, that’s all they can do. My fear has been that they’d come in way below the winning bid, and that may happen if some team goes bananas, but as long as they’re in the ballpark, I think that’s fine.
I still think Tanaka signs with the team that has the best bid. I can see Tanaka choosing the Yankees or some other possible contender over the Cubs if the bids are close, but even if the Cubs beat them by $5 million, I think he takes it.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
I can also see the Cubs having the edge over a team like the White Sox or Diamondbacks. For example, Cubs offer $150 million and the other two offer $160 million, I think he signs with the Cubs.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Sounds like 5 teams have formally submitted bids for Tanaka. That’s fewer than I thought. Anyone want to guess the odds of him signing if there are only 5 bids? I’d say it’s slightly better than 20%. That’s a lot better than I thought it would be at this point.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Google Translate wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’d also guess that if he signs with the Cubs there’s roughly an 88% chance he’ll have Tommy John Surgery in April and a 94% chance he tears his labrum next June.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
It’s the same with me. As I said, if all we know after this process is that the Cubs have the money and will spend it when they find a player they think warrants it, then I can live with that.
It’s just that all this talk of 7/160 suddenly got me thinking they would actually get him, and emotion took over. While I don’t think Tanaka will be a world-beater, I do think he’ll be pretty good, and it would be nice to have a pretty good player. We haven’t had one of those in a long time.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
No wonder nobody knows what the fuck is going on.
I will say I do like the Cubs chances if Theo has found a way to utilize the military in his negotiations.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning wrote:
We need an OV Japanese translator, I find it silly that “over military” was the literal translation for “front office” hahaha.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
As for Loxas, while he is a blogger he and John Arguello seem to have legitimate sources so I take whatever they have to say at face value.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Although with their existing wealth plus $160MM she can start her own network or production company so whatever.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I think there’s a 35% change he signs with the Cubs, 55% change he signs with the Dodgers, 40% chance he signs with the Yankees, and 20% chance he signs with the Mariners. I think every other team is baseball only has a 5% chance, except for the teams who didn’t submit a bid, who drop to a 2% chance. I’m only 40% confident in my numbers, though.
Edwin, No Title NeccessaryQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I will not buy this Tanaka, it is scratched.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin, No Title Neccessary:
That’s almost 300%
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Wasn’t that an Alvin or Chicago beat writer meme for when one of them couldn’t math?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Blogging is 50% mental, 90% physical. 0% math.
EdwinQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Yeah, Alvin gave his percentage chances for who would get the radio gig after Ron died and it added up to something like 360%. And he got pissed when people told him that, saying something like it wasn’t supposed to represent actual chances or something even stupider.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Tanaka’s agent is the one who represents Kershaw, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s looking for something with an out clause that could allow him to still go FA after his age 30 season.
That could help the Cubs vs. the Yankees because the penalty for staying over the cap for a guy they can’t even lock in long term starts getting REALLY costly for them.
It works against them in that Tanaka could be viewing this as a shorter term decision, and therefore the Cubs aren’t as appealing in this current time period.
If the Cubs offered 7 years and $160M (plus the $20M posting fee), I’m satisfied with their effort. They can’t control what Tanaka wants, and those numbers are pretty well above the rest of the numbers I’ve seen thrown out there. Obviously, Arizona must have thought 6/120 was a good offer or they wouldn’t have bothered making it, so 7/160 blows that away, IMO.
I’d say I’m putting the Cubs odds at 25% now, Arizona at almost nothing, the White Sox at almost nothing, Yankees at 40% and the Dodgers at 35%.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That actually adds up to 100%! Rounding errors notwithstanding, of course.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
I thought it was 80% physical and 90% mental.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Yogi’s phrase was that baseball was 90% physical and the other half was mental, I believe. Or it might have been the other way around.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It was.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
SVB, apparently younger than more than SK wrote:
i do!
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
i’m 300% sure that tanaka either will or will not sign a contract with an mlb team.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’d be surprised if he signs before Thursday. Why wouldn’t he wait until just about the last minute possible?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
EVERYTHING has to be absolutely final by the deadline on Friday. I doubt he’d want to have something go wrong logistically while going through all the formalities. But he could theoretically wait.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I thought he already had his physical and came here for some other medical stuff, didn’t he? If that’s true, why do that and then sign a few days early?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Maybe he did the general stuff that is made “public,” but teams then do proprietary tests prior to a deal? I don’t know. I’m just guessing.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
What are the odds they’ll be selling racist t-shirts and the like?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That could be, but I think the sportswriters are just getting ahead of themselves. Everything has to be finally final on the 24th? What time? I would think as long as he signs the contract it would be OK. What do I know though?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
My spreadsheet surprisingly says 100% even thought I programmed it to never go higher than 99.9%. I don’t know what’s going on. Excel must think Cubs fans are racist.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Infinity percent.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
I’ve seen somewhere that the whole thing has to be officially official at 1? 5?pm something like that. I’ll see if I can find it.
The way it’s being talked about, the winning team will probably have stuff they still want to do before the contract is made officially official and Tanaka knows that, thus the idea that he’ll decide by Wednesdayish.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mlb-teams-ready-pitch-tanaka-article-1.1571023
I’m guessing the 5pm is Eastern time, since it’s a NY paper reporting it and they didn’t specify.
Aisle424Quote Reply
It’s 5 PM Eastern because MLBTR (based in Chicago I believe) said 4 PM Central.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s Monday morning in Tokyo. I think he decides within the next 12 hours, tells his agent, who tells the winning team and the league authorities in both countries, and it goes public sometime on Tuesday in the US.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Is the MLBTR building in the loop?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I don’t know that they have a building but I thought Tim Dierkes was a Chicagoan (and a Cubs fan).
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[img]http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/834410819.gif?1390172215[/img]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
That’s a lot of money. I guess that’s the price to pay though to have a good FA come to a shitty team.
WaLiQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Pretty sure this is a known known.
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
I don’t get why team owners approve the out clauses in the players contracts. If the player sucks, then he doesn’t exercise the clause and the team is stuck with him. If the player is awesome, he exercises the clause and you pay him more or he splits, so you get nothing for the risk you were willing to take at the outset.
The only upside I see is that it makes it easier to trade the player mid-year in the out-clause year if another team is looking for a rental and doesn’t want to commit to a huge salary long term.
So what does the team get, except perhaps that the player doesn’t sign elsewhere in the beginning. Seems to me the Dodgers pay Kershaw premium money and lose him/pay him more later for no benefit.
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
@ SVB, apparently younger than more than SK:
They pay less. It’s negotiating. A player doesn’t get something without giving something up.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Man thought 49ers were going to come back and win that one. Kapernick made some questionable throws, but overall a good game.
Sherman was angry at the end. Pretty hilarious.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Kershaw would have been paid EVEN MORE?
@ WaLi:
Dunno what to think about him. He goes after Skip Bayless and I cheer. His comments with Terry Bradshaw at the end were fine. I didn’t really understand what he was going on about with Crabtree right after the game, but I’m not sure that’s the time to spouting off. Though it does make for a more interesting interview-let than the typical platitudes.
SVB, apparently younger than more than SKQuote Reply
@ SVB, apparently younger than more than SK:
I think Crabtree said before the game that Sherman wasn’t the best CB out there and also Crabtree kind of hit him in the head at the end of the game.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi: Sherman slapped Crabtree’s ass before the face-shove. I think the frustration can be understood, especially if you know how much of a prick Sherman is. It’s not hard to imagine him talking massive mountains of shit.
Can we please make the Superb Owl an aside and keep this talk outside of Cubs issues? And maybe separate threads for the drafts? I’m not sure there’s more than three readers who care who SF drafts.
JQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Two years in a row they’ve surprised me by not finishing a drive. I guess I’m still used to the 49ers I grew up with (dying laughing…tear).
They just didn’t play well enough to win. What’s a little frustrating is that they didn’t have to play as well as I thought they would to win.
Hated to see what happened to Novorrow Bowman and really hated to hear that fans threw food at him while he was being carted off.
Kaepernick had a few poor throws (his last two INTs would have been brilliant passes if they were each about six inches higher), but he also made some really good ones (the TD over Earl Thomas was amazing). He’s up for a new contract this off-season, and SF has a very intersting decision to make with him.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
In Crabtree’s press conference a few days ago, he was asked if Richard Sherman was the best CB in the league. He said:
That’s what he meant by “talking about” him.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ J:
But there are some that care who CHI, GB, SD and others draft. My draft talk will mostly be generic and I’m an equal opportunity mocker.
Like You CareQuote Reply
[img]https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-BV5-w-bISvE/UtzZFOdXIoI/AAAAAAAAAlE/FbZjDmkkQMc/w533-h300-no/addddd.gif[/img]
If only he’d looked to his left…
Like You CareQuote Reply
Google Translate wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Since OV is the best Get Smart blog I know:
http://www.avclub.com/article/get-smart-invented-the-sitcom-mythology-200872
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
How do I get a “love call” from Jeter??
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
J wrote:
I’m one who doesn’t care about the SF draft, but I don’t care about any football discussion. I just gloss over it and any other discussions I’m not interested in. I’ve never found it that difficult to do and I do enjoy many of the non-relevant topics that come up so I’d rather things stay as they are.
I will say, though, if the Cubs sign Tanaka, we’ll have one day where there will only be Cubs-related topics discussed in the active thread.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Spread both hands and you come to ya army.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
Nice article, although it never really got around to defining or explaining the grandiose title.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
Don’t lie.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I have to admit, Newhart on BBT is pretty funny.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He was hilarious. His comedic timing is just brilliant.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Richard Sherman wrote a post about what led up to his ranting interview with Erin Andrews. It’s really great.
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/20/richard-sherman-interview-michael-crabtree/
Aisle424Quote Reply
Harry Pav is getting famous.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He’s timing is as good as ever. Have you seen both BBT episodes with him in it?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
new shit http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/javier-baez-to-play-some-2nd-base-this-spring.html
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply