Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (80-72) at Chicago Cubs (97-55)

In Series Previews by berselius74 Comments

I was too lazy to look up my usual team leader stats, so I’ll look at the potential NL wild card clusterfork (thanks, KT!). The Cardinals are now a half game behind the Giants and Mets. Here’s the rest of their schedules

Cardinals

  • @Cubs (3 games)
  • vs Reds (4 games)
  • vs Pirates (3 games)

Giants

  • @ SD (3 games)
  • vs COL (3 games)
  • vs LADoLA (3 games)

Mets

  • vs PHI (3 games)
  • @ MIA (3 games)
  • @ PHI (3 games)

Pirates

  • vs WSH (3 games)
  • vs Cubs (4 games)
  • @ StL (3 games)

The Pirates are 4.5 games back and have by far the toughest remaining schedule, so we probably will sadly have to cross off the possibility of a four-way tie, or a three-way for the second wild card (phrasing!). The Mets rotation is a mess but they probably have the easiest path of the remaining teams. There’s still a non-trivial chance that the Cardinals and Giants tie for the final wild card spot, which would be delicious. I’m not going to tempt fate to say which of these teams I would prefer the Cubs to face in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Cubs are significantly better than all of them. And we all know how much that is worth in the playoffs.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, Projected ERA listed for each starter.

Friday: Mike Leake, RHP (6.31, 1.44, 4.54, 3.88, 3.84) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (8.55, 3.54, 2.96, 3.55, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT

Leake topped last year’s fWAR total so in some sense this year hasn’t been a disappointment. Still, it’s funny to see a team shell out $80 for a guy whose merely slightly above average first season is a surprise.

Joe’s got freedom to do more rotation manipulation before the playoffs start, but all the vibe I’m feeling is that Arrieta is going in as the number three starter. It would mean that he would start any potential game sevens if they stick with this ordering.

Saturday: Alex Reyes, RHP (10.29, 4.63, 1.03, 2.76, 4.07) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (7.78, 2.85, 3.56, 4.40, 4.18), 12:05 PM CT

The Cubs saw Reyes in the last series with the Cardinals after he came in for an ineffective Jaime Garcia and technically shut the Cubs down for four plus innings. I say technically because he walked six over that span, but the Cubs didn’t manage to get a run across against him.

Hammel has been fantastic at Wrigley this year, and this will probably be his last start in front of the home crowd this season. If you asked me a week ago I’d have said that he will not make the playoff roster, now I’m leaning in the other direction. It will be interesting if they bullpen him after this start to prep for the playoffs.

Sunday: Carlos Martinez, RHP (7.85, 3.21, 3.16, 3.64, 3.59) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.67, 2.26, 2.36, 3.40, 3.20), 7:08 PM CT

Martinez has long been a pitcher that I underrate. His numbers are solid across the board, though his peripherals have taken a small dip this year thanks to a decrease in his strikeout rate. A decent chunk of that could probably be explained by him working deeper into games this year.

The Cubs likely game one starter had a scare earlier this week when he took a liner off his non-throwing arm, but it all sounds like it’s ok. As Lester joked after the game, he doesn’t really use that glove much anyway (dying laughing). Be prepared to hear his throws to first stuff mentioned about 20 times an inning while he’s on the mount. Or don’t be prepared. I can’t tell you what to do.

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  1. SK

    Pitching Matchups
    K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, Projected ERA listed for each starter.

    What’s Projected ERA?

    Certainly not “end of season expected ERA based on progress so far.”

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  2. Author
    berselius

    SK: What’s Projected ERA?

    Certainly not “end of season expected ERA based on progress so far.”

    Projected era in future starts? True talent level era?

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  3. uncle dave

    Still, it’s funny to see a team shell out $80 for a guy whose merely slightly above average first season is a surprise.

    sounds like a bargain imo

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  4. cerulean

    Some thoughts after missing every word:

    The 6S is better, hands down. Make sure to get at least 32 gigs.

    Contrary to the bullshit we grew up with, eating fat cannot make you fat very easily because the body literally cannot process and absorb all that fat. Carbs, however, are very easily turned into fat stored in the body because winter used to be a lean time and fattening up when carbs are plentiful gets us through the lean times.

    Also, our bodies and minds need dietary fat to function, and many of the healthiest things in fruit smoothies won’t be absorbed without fat. So throw some coconut or avocado in there. And some full-fat milk. Hell, add some of that amazing Irish butter if you please. It’s for your health. Just cut down on the pizza and soda.

    Great to see Jake Arrieta donning his superman attire.

    That is all.

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  5. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I don’t know where the cholesterol thing came in, but I think it was based on the fact that people who tested high had higher risk of heart disease. So probably the same silly reasoning.

    The fat thing came from flawed research in the late seventies that appealed to the folk logic of “you are what you eat”. A competing genuinely scientific study pointed to sugar being the problem with obesity, but sugar isn’t fat so that’s ridiculous. So cut the fat and add sugar to make the fat-free cardboard palatable. And lo, we have generation overweight. Science is hard.

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  6. SK

    William Ladson ‏@washingnats 5m5 minutes ago
    Daniel Murphy has a strain in his buttocks. He has been shut down for now. #Nats #MLB #Nationals

    Everything’s coming up Cubbies

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  7. Author
    berselius

    I’m starting to wonder if Contreras might be left off the playoff roster. I still don’t think it’s very likely, but the chance is bigger than I would have thought a week or so ago.

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  8. Perkins

    berselius:
    I’m starting to wonder if Contreras might be left off the playoff roster. I still don’t think it’s very likely, but the chance is bigger than I would have thought a week or so ago.

    At this point, I think it’s much more likely Hammel gets left off the roster.

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  9. SK

    berselius:
    I’m starting to wonder if Contreras might be left off the playoff roster. I still don’t think it’s very likely, but the chance is bigger than I would have thought a week or so ago.

    I’m actually of the opposite view. I didn’t see where he’d fit before. Now that I know there will be almost certainly be 14 position players, plus the fact he can play OF, means he makes it and Coghlan or Szczur probably doesn’t.

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  10. Author
    berselius

    SK: I’m actually of the opposite view. I didn’t see where he’d fit before. Now that I know there will be almost certainly be 14 position players, plus the fact he can play OF, means he makes it and Coghlan or Szczur probably doesn’t.

    It feels like it’s the first game Contreras has played in weeks. His bat hasn’t been so hot lately either.

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  11. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Rondon is broken.

    It appears so, and bummer for him. But it doesn’t concern me too much postseasonally speaking. If the SP is on target, then the bridge to Chapman the bullpen will have to build will be a very short one, and I’m encouraged enough by the other guys that they should be able to get the job done. If the SP is not on target, well, we’re probably not winning anything anyway.

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  12. Rizzo the Rat

    Um… aren’t we overreacting to a very small sample size here? Most of Rondon’s outings since his DL stint have been fine.

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  13. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat:
    Um… aren’t we overreacting to a very small sample size here? Most of Rondon’s outings since his DL stint have been fine.

    Possibly. And he has had a better September (and he’s rarely been truly awful). But for me, it’s still clear he’s not the same guy who didn’t deserve to lose his closer’s job to Chapman. He comes in a 1-run game in the playoffs, I’m probably hiding somewhere.

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    I know this has been said before, but we need a different kind of downvote for the “I hate the news, not the messenger” moments.

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  15. cerulean

    Universal spoiler: Everybody dies.

    Ultimately, all of our stories are comedies of errors until ending inevitably in tragedy.

    This is why there is baseball. I find it can help keep the demon dogs of inevitability at bay.

    Sometimes.

    But not today.

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  16. cerulean

    dmick89:
    That’s fucked up. He went through so much just to get here and doesn’t get to enjoy it for very long.

    Do any of us get to enjoy it for very long?

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