Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (46-49) at Chicago Cubs (49-45)

In Series Previews by berselius200 Comments

If the 2016 Cubs truly are back, it's hard to think of a better litmus test than a home series against the Cardinals. Of course, the Cardinals have been disappointing relative to non-BP expectations as well this year. The main thing that has taken a step back is their offense, which trailed only the Cubs in wRC+ among NL teams last year but now ranks ninth in the league. They were a dumpster fire defensively earlier in the season but appear to have righted the ship, posting 15.6 runs above average with the gloves. This may sound good, but it's actually fourth worst in the NL, where every team but the Padres has a positive defensive number somehow. I guess all the shitty defenders are in the AL, where negative defensive units thrive.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Kris Bryant  (.401)
  • ISO: Ian Happ (.268)
  • HR: Anthony Rizzo (23)
  • R+RBI: Rizzo (116)
  • wRC+: Bryant (141)
  • BSR: Jason Heyward (2.4)
  • SP K/9: Jose Quintana (9.78)
  • SP BB/9: John Lackey, somehow (2.78)
  • SP FIP: Quintana (3.73)
  • RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (13.15)
  • RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (2.20)
  • RP FIP: Wade Davis (2.13)
  • WAR: Bryant (3.2)

Urinals

  • OBP: Kolten Wong (.391)
  • ISO: Paul Dejong (.275)
  • HR: Jedd Gyorko / Matt Carpenter / Dexter Fowler (14)
  • R+RBI: Carpenter (99)
  • wRC+: Tommy Pham (138)
  • BSR: Tommy Pham (3.4)
  • SP K/9: Carlos Martinez (9.71)
  • SP BB/9: Mike Leake (2.31)
  • SP FIP: Michael Wacha (3.32)
  • RP K/9: Trevor Rosenthal (14.37)
  • RP BB/9: Matt Bowman (2.25)
  • RP FIP: Rosenthal (2.14)
  • WAR: Pham (2.7)

Pitching Matchups

Based on the start times, looks like JD has the weekend off.

ERA, FIP, xFIP, projected ERA listed for each pitcher

Friday: Carlos Martinez, RHP (3.36, 3.77, 3.68, 3.48) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (4.17, 4.25, 4.05, 3.32), 1:20 PM CT

Martinez has bounced back from a relatively disappointing 2016 that saw a significant drop in his strikeout rate. This year, however, he has set a career high. It's come with siginificantly more balls going over the fence, but that could be said of pretty much any pitcher this year.

Arrieta has had a trio of good to great outings following a disaster start in DC. I'm going to need a lot more starts to be as convinved that he might have turned a corner as others around the Cubs o sphere.

Saturday: Adam Wainwright, RHP (5.08, 4.03, 4.07, 4.09) vs Jon Lester, LHP (4.07, 3.83, 3.62, 3.34), 3:05 PM CT

I have some sort of weird revese bias against Waino. I remember him getting off to a bad start to the year, but remember a good start or two since and just assumed that he had righted the ship. But here we are in late July and he still has a 5+ ERA. Having two nine run outings in June will do that for you.

Speaking of nine-ish run outings, Lester bounced back well from his disaster of a pre-ASB start with a solid outing vs the Barves, allowing just one run on three hits and a walk in seven innings.

Sunday: Michael Wacha, RHP (3.71, 3.32, 3.78, 4.02) vs Jose Quintana, LHP (4.20, 3.73, 3.90, 3.43), 7:05 PM CT

Wacha is coming off a complete game shutout of the Mets, so maybe he will be a little gassed. Not that shutting down the Mets 'offense' is a relatively impressive accomplishment these days.

Quintana, of course, had one of the best starts of any pitcher, Cubs or otherwise, in his last outing. He struck out 12 with no walks or runs, allowing just three hits over seven innings. I can't think of many better Cubs debuts.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. SK

    Team Leaders
    Cubs

    OBP: Kris Bryant (.401)
    ISO: Ian Happ (.268)
    HR: Anthony Rizzo (23)
    R+RBI: Rizzo (116)
    wRC+: Bryant (141)
    BSR: Jason Heyward (2.4)
    SP K/9: Jose Quintana (9.78)
    SP BB/9: John Lackey, somehow (2.78)
    SP FIP: Quintana (3.73)
    RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (13.15)
    RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (2.20)
    RP FIP: Wade Davis (2.13)
    WAR: Bryant (3.2)

    Made me swoon a little

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  2. Ryno

    Apparently the Cubs have asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish.

    But I heard he’s already going to the dance with the Hiroshima Carp.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. Myles

    Ryno:
    Apparently the Cubs have asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish.

    But I heard he’s already going to the dance with the Hiroshima Carp.

    Tough fit. Wouldn’t trade baez, Russell, or schwarber, and you’d need to include one of them.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. Ryno

    Myles,

    Baez and Russell are pretty much worthless to the Rangers, who churn out middle infielders like it’s no big deal. I’m not even sure Schwarber makes a TON of sense with Gallo, Mazara and Choo handling the 1B/COF spots.

    Texas is in a weird spot, that they don’t have any really glaring needs beside the bullpen. They’re pretty solid everywhere.

    My guess is they’d target pitching.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. Ryno

    @Evan_P_Grant 19m
    If Rangers-Cubs do get to talking, would not be surprised to see Lucroy’s name involved, as well

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. cerulean

    Myles:
    Myles – 60 day DL (labrum)

    Finally got shoulder surgery yesterday.

    I knew we should have traded you when we had the chance.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. JonKneeV

    Benefit to trading for Yu Darvish now – if you plan on signing him this offseason, you don’t give up a pick.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  8. cerulean

    Nice start to the game.

    Can we define a swing as the angle of the bat moving passed the point of parallel with the front of the plate no matter where in the zone in relation to the plate that is? Add an automatic no-swing if the ball is headed for the player and require the bat be pulled back before the ball breaks the plane of the front of the plate on a bunt.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  9. cerulean

    This bouncing centerfield camera is making me feel nauseous. Or maybe that’s just Arrieta’s inability to put people away anymore.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. dmick89

    cerulean,

    He has a one home run allowed minimum. He’s also just not very good anymore, but if Hendricks comes back and performs up to his talent, Arrieta is more than fine as the fourth starter down the stretch.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. cerulean

    dmick89:
    cerulean,
    It has to at least be understood by most fans. I don’t think there’s a good solution to it.

    What’s no good about how I defined it? It’s dead simple. From the pitcher’s/catcher’s perspective, if the bat appears to get foreshortened after lengthening, it’s a swing. I think it’s what the umps are already looking for.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. dmick89

    cerulean: What’s no good about how I defined it? It’s dead simple. From the pitcher’s/catcher’s perspective, if the bat appears to get foreshortened after lengthening, it’s a swing. I think it’s what the umps are already looking for.

    Most fans, especially younger ones, currently understand the rule to be the bat crossing the front of home plate. That’s not really the rule, but I think that’s what umpires are looking for. It’s simple to understand and it has to be. I understand what you’re saying, but without a good explanation of what you mean, most fans are either not going to completely understand it or will get lost and give up.

    I don’t like the check swing either, but you have to have something and no matter what it is, it’s going to be subjective and result in human error.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Talking mostly about Contreras with the BABIP.

    But nevermind—that liner was 72mph off the bat. I thought he got a lot more of it.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. dmick89

    I went to get some water at the end of the inning and when I get back to check on the score there are already two outs. Was it two pitches or something?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. Perkins

    Not a fan of Tichenor’s strike zone today. At least by the broadcast strike zone, he’s calling a lot of strikes as balls.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Smokestack Lightning

    All the numbers indicate the Cubs bullpen is good, perhaps very good, and yet I’ve not believed it all year.

    What’s happening now is much easier to believe.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Berselius is too lazy to login

    Smokestack Lightning:
    All the numbers indicate the Cubs bullpen is good, perhaps very good, and yet I’ve not believed it all year.

    What’s happening now is much easier to believe.

    This. I laugh every time I hear that shit.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Yeah, I’ve not believed it either. I’ve said as much several times only to have RtR tell me I’m wrong. The numbers back him up, but the bullpen looks bad and has all year. Maybe they’ve lucked into some good luck along the way, but this is what I expect every time the bullpen comes in.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. Perkins

    Perkins:
    Grimm’s going to give up a longball here. Then the Cubs will score 6 runs between the 8th and 9th.

    I was about three feet from being partially correct there.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Perkins

    cerulean:
    JUSTIN GRIMM TO THE RESCUE!

    At this point, I’d let him wear it. Doesn’t matter if he gives up 10 runs. Doesn’t matter if his arm falls off. No use wasting another reliever on this game.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. uncle dave

    I forgot that this is a home game, so these asshole clowns have to come out and pitch the ninth, too.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. dmick89

    The Cubs weren’t going to win every game, but losing this one kind of sucks. The bullpen wears it, but the offense should have put this game away. They had chance after fucking chance to do so. Regardless, if they can come back and win the last couple games in this series, it’s going to go a long way to convincing me that maybe they turned a corner at the all star break. Maybe, but I expect they’ll get swept and lose the first two against the White Sox.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. dmick89

    Maybe from now on the pitchers can just pitch complete games or at least go eight. Pretty fucking sad that the defending World Series champions have a team that needs eight innings from its starting pitchers.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. BVS

    After today’s game I’m compelled to comment…

    Hot dog sandwich: slice hotdog in half, fry in pan, place between bread with cheese and othe condiments of your choice.

    Yummm!

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  25. Perkins

    That game was dildos.

    But Lester and Quintana are next, and the Cardinals aren’t great against LHP. I remain cautiously optimistic.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  26. cerulean

    I am in favor of trying to get Britton for situations exactly like today. I am not into the rentals, but he has another year of arbitration.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. cerulean

    Alex Wood did as bad as the Cubs’ bullpen. Sure, only seven of the nine runs were earned, but the other two came on an error that he made—a dropped pop-up that would have ended the inning—instead, two runs scored.

    Even the mighty Dodgers can and do look like shit.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. cerulean

    The MLB At-Bat app just jinxed Adam Wainwright, who has a perfect game despite Bryant and Heyward, obviously.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  29. dmick89

    Was that Joe hoping they could steal the bases and then forcing the Cardinals to walk Schwarber? If that’s what happened, Schwarber needs to be in Iowa.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  30. Berselius is too lazy to login

    cerulean:
    Anybody listening in the At Bat app have playback failures between innings? It’s so damn annoying.

    I’ve been having a lot of issues with the most recent version. No problems with between inning breaks but it will often lose its ability to play in the background, then gets super confused when I try to go back to the app.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  31. SK

    I’m using At Bat to stream to a Chromecast for the first time and it’s working great (I’ve had no issues with it on the phone lately either — audio or video).

    My old Apple TV box died so I was hoping this cheap Google gadget would work OK, and so far no issues.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment