Series Preview: Seattle Mariners (51-49) @ Chicago Cubs (61-40)

In Series Previews by dmick8958 Comments

I was never a big fan of interleague play. I couldn’t care less about the White Sox or Royals or Twins, but I’ll admit that I do like it when the Cubs play a team like the Mariners, A’s, Yankees, Red Sox or the teams they don’t face all that often. I’m not in favor of getting rid of it, but I like it when the Cubs play teams from their own division.

Team Leaders

Cubs (200 PA)

Bryant hasn’t really struggled since the break, but he’s not hitting for the power that he was, which I guess is the same thing as struggling. He’s still getting hits so he’s been valuable. Hopefully we see his power return to what it was the first couple of months.

Mariners

I kind of expected Cano to be leading most of the offensive categories. He’s still the team leader in fWAR, but Nelson Cruz is having a good season.

Pitching matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each pitcher.

Friday: Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP (6.64, 2.19, 3.96, 4.40, 3.88) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.68, 2.65, 3.09, 4.00, 3.28), 1:20 PM CT

Iwakuma has really good control, though it’s not as good as his career numbers this season. His strikeout rate was mediocre prior to this season, but it’s taken a big step back and he gives up a ton of home runs. He’s just average in about every start. he’s had a couple bad ones this year in which he gave up 5 runs, but other than that he’s been fairly solid. He keeps the Mariners in the game and gives you 6-7 innings.

I think I’ve said this each of the last two or three previews about Lester, but he’s striking out a bit fewer batters than he did the last couple years, but still better than his career rate. He’s also walking more batters and giving up many more home runs. He’s already given up more home runs this season (17) than he did each of the last two seasons (16 in each one). He’s allowed more per 9 innings this year than in any season since his 63 innings in 2007. Lester has been terrible lately. He’s given up 24 runs in his last 7 starts covering 36.2 innings.

Saturday: Wade Miley, LHP (6.26, 2.83, 5.23, 5.01, 4.41) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (9.54, 3.25, 2.76, 2.99, 2.87), 1:20 PM CT

Like Iwakuma, Miley has good control, doesn’t strike many out and gives up lots of home runs. We could see a ton of home runs at Wrigley this weekend. He’s given up more fly balls this year, but he still has a good GB/FB rate. A very high number of his fly balls have left the park. He throws a fastball at about 90 mph and his slider is at 84. He also throws a curve and a change up.

The superhuman Jake Arrieta has returned to being human. I think we’re all finally starting to adjust to the reality that Jake was not nearly as good as he had pitched. I think most of us here knew that, but I know for myself that I started thinking he was not as good as he’d pitched, but perhaps quite a bit better than his projections indicated he would pitch. He is not. He’s a good pitcher who had a great run. He was good in his last outing. Jake will probably have another season with the Cubs before he becomes a free agent and I’m OK with the Cubs just letting him walk. He’ll be 31 next year so any future contract would begin during his age 32 season. I’d rather the Cubs just let him go. If there’s a trade to be made at some point this offseason or next year that could get the Cubs a young pitcher to take his place, I’d also be in favor of that. He’d have to be pretty good though.

Sunday: Felix Hernandez, RHP (6.90, 3.45, 3.45, 4.54, 3.55) vs Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.95, 2.47, 2.39, 3.35, 3.58), 7:08 PM CT

Felix just isn’t the same Felix. His strikeout rate is way down and his walks are up. He wasn’t an elite pitcher last year either, but he was better than he’s pitched this year. He came off the DL a couple starts ago and has been terrible. The White Sox put up 10 hits and 5 runs in 6.2 innings and he walked only 2 while striking out 2. In his last start against the Pirates, he went 6 innings, gave up 9 hits and 4 runs. He’s surrendered 3 home runs in those starts, walked 3 and struckout only 5. I remember the Felix who threw in the mid to high 90s. He’s gone. His average fastball is about 90 mph these days. It’s also down quite a bit from last year.

Hendricks keeps doing the things that has gotten him to succeed at this level. He keeps the ball on the ground and the ball in the ball park. It’s not difficult to figure out how you have success. It’s really difficult doing it.

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Comments

  1. berselius

    If the Mariners manage to steal less than five bases on Lester, it’s a successful start (dying laughing).

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  2. JonKneeV

    It gets worse

    Jon Heyman
    @JonHeyman
    for the record, yankees would not do this twitter.com/jonmorosi/stat…

    Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
    Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.

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  3. berselius

    Edwin:
    I’m pretty sure Coghlan just locked up a spot on that playoff roster.

    I think it’s time to be talking long term extension

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  4. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Leater looking good today. He’s fixed too.

    Heyward fixed. Lester fixed. Everything is perfect and nothing will go wrong ever again.

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  5. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    It’s funny that Rizzo’s All For Won ad shows the benches clearing against the Reds now that Chapman is on the team.

    That ad confuses me. Who is Won?

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  6. Smokestack Lightning

    Looking over this M’s lineup, I was thinking “How the hell is this team not better than 2 games over?” Then I saw Iwakuma and Karns pitch.

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  7. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat:
    So, the Cubs are the 1927 Yankees again?

    After about eight more games like the first six innings of this game then finishing the season 51–10 or something, yes.

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  8. Rizzo the Rat

    According to the radio guys, Montgomery was scheduled to pitch this game. That makes the trade look better in retrospect.

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  9. Smokestack Lightning

    Cardinals up 3-0 early on the Fish.

    I’d be getting worried but since we’re good again…

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  10. Rizzo the Rat

    Then again, I didn’t expect Weaver to have any success against them yesterday, and he sure showed me.

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  11. cerulean

    Part of me thinks the Cubs should sell Hammel and Strop to the likes of the Rangers/Giants/Red Sox/Indians and use the prospects to go hard after someone like Archer.

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  12. Smokestack Lightning

    Rizzo the Rat:
    Then again, I didn’t expect Weaver to have any success against them yesterday, and he sure showed me.

    Shut you right up, it seems.

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  13. Smokestack Lightning

    Rumors flying around tonight. Theo apparently after everyone, wants all the good players.

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  14. Author
    dmick89

    The Montgomery trade looks like a panic move at this point. Sure would be nice to have someone like Vogelbach to add to a package for a left fielder.

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  15. cerulean

    dmick89:
    The Montgomery trade looks like a panic move at this point. Sure would be nice to have someone like Vogelbach to add to a package for a left fielder.

    My motto on life:

    “Panic early so you don’t have to panic late.”

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  16. cerulean

    Reddick for Soler, straight up? It seems like it would be terribly irresponsible. But I am getting the feeling that the chances of Soler being healthy enough to have a chance at being productive playing the outfield is approaching zero.

    Reddick for Soler plus? Pass. So Thoyer will probably do it because if not now, when?

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