Series Preview: San Diego Padres (12-12) at Chicago Cubs (12-9)

In Series Previews by berselius104 Comments

Lots of electrons have been spilled in the past week or so about the Cubs hot start, and subsequent disappointment with losing the four game set with the Dodgers. I’m not really sweating it that much.

For one, if you told me that the Cubs would go 3-4 vs the Dodgers, with most games being competitive, I would have been pleasantly surprised. The Dodgers have taken a step back from their All-World roster from a year or two ago but are still a very good team, while I thought going into the season that the Cubs would merely be kinda good. If these wins were sequenced differently, with the losses spread throughout instead of capping off the series there wouldn’t be quite as much salt. Kinda good vs very good resulting in 3-4 seems fine.

Before opening day, I predicted this Cubs team would win 80 games, and I felt like I was getting out over my skis a bit with that optimism. Little did I know that that would be the lowest predicted win total among my fellow podcasters (dying laughing). The Cubs have banked some wins with some good performances against a relatively tough April schedule but my opinion hasn’t changed much on the true talent level going forward. This team is good, not great, and the cracks are showing a bit. The Cubs do not have a good top to bottom bullpen. Oddly enough they have great multi-inning guys but a giant question mark at the back end (dying laughing). The starting pitching looks great but they’re not this great. The only guys I’ve really changed my mind on so far are Patrick Wisdom, streaky as he can be, and Dansby Swanson, who has a chance of not regressing as hard on offense as I might have expected. His defense is definitely for real.

I’m going to sit back and enjoy this team. It seems like a fun bunch of guys and the vibes are good. I’d love to see Mervis up but I don’t think it’s some kind of existential failure of the front office to leave him in Iowa a while longer. I’m not going to sweat every win and loss, at least for the next few months.

*clears throat* Anyway, the Padres are heading to town, so let’s talk about that instead. The Padres spent big in the offseason but have been slow to warm up, only posting a .216/.301/.378 line on the year, good for a 90 wRC+ that is 24th in the bigs. New signing Xander Bogaerts has gotten off to a Dansby-like hot start, but the rest of the team has struggled to hit. On the pitching side, Seth Lugo and Yu Darvish (cough should still be a Cub) have been solid to start the year. I’d say the Cubs should put out a bunch of kettlebells in the visiting clubhouse as a joke on Joe Musgrove, but I wouldn’t wish that on Darvish.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Padres

  • OBP: Juan Soto (.428)
  • ISO: Fernando Tatis Jr (.303)
  • HR: Tatis (38)
  • R+RBI: Soto (185)
  • wRC+: Soto (164)
  • BSR: Tatis (2.2)
  • Defense: Trent Grisham (8.8)
  • SP K/9: Blake Snell (11.40)
  • SP BB/9: Yu Darvish (2.05)
  • SP FIP: Joe Musgrove (3.18)
  • RP K/9: Josh Hader (14.26)
  • RP BB/9: Nabil Crismatt (2.52)
  • RP FIP: Hader (2.76)
  • WAR: Soto (6.3)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He threw 47 pitches in a side session last week and will likely make a few minor league starts over the next few weeks. Jameson Taillon is out with a mild groin strain, and did some light tossing earlier this week. No word yet on if he’ll be back asap. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason. He’s graduated to throwing live BP.

For the Padres, Yu Darvish is day-to-day with hamstring cramping but should make his next start. The improbably named reliever Nabil Crismatt is out with a hip strain.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Tuesday: Blake Snell, LHP (11.32, 3.75, 3.95) vs Justin Steele, LHP (9.04, 3.71, 3.72), 6:40 PM CT

Wednesday: Michael Wacha, RHP (7.87, 2.60, 4.32) vs Drew Smyly, LHP (8.37, 2.79, 4.62), 6:40 PM CT

Thursday: Seth Lugo, RHP (9.54, 2.74, 3.50) vs Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.51, 3.13, 4.88), 1:20 PM CT

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Comments

  1. andcounting

    A) It’s really just nice being done with the Dodgers for the season*.

    B) I read “RP Codi Heuer” as “RIP Codi Heuer” and got really scared I missed some news. (dying laughing)

    * regular

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  5. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Seems like playing well makes everybody more flexible negotiators. It’s pretty hilarious that he can block trades to 6 teams. Very curious to know who he refuses to play for.

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  6. Author
    berselius

    Looks like Nate Silver got Rule of Three’d (dying laughing)

    Can’t wait for ABC to open up the 538 model and find out that it’s an abortion of an excel spreadsheet, much like when Colin Wyers inherited PECOTA at BP.

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  12. Rice Cube

    Kyle Hendricks rehabbing in Iowa on Thursday

    Tonight’s Cubs 9:

    Hoerner 2B
    Swanson SS
    Happ LF
    Suzuki RF
    Wisdom 3B
    Hosmer DH
    Mancini 1B
    Gomes C
    Velázquez CF
    —————
    SP: Steele

    Bellinger on the paternity list, congrats on the sex

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  25. Rice Cube

    Quick observations until berselius decides to write a post-game

    1. Steele pretty darn good despite not going full six, probably too cold to have the usual command
    2. Yan Gomes Game
    3. Rucker is now designated mop up guy and that’s ok, he’s decent
    4. Nico stand up triple on a ball to LF is nuts

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  30. andcounting

    Yan Gomes sure has done everything he can to make not re-signing Contreras look like one of the best moves of the offseason.

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  31. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    Rice Cube,

    Boy they shut me right up (dying laughing)

    I think we need to have a “shut me right up” come to Jesus moment. We’ve gotten away from what “shut him right up” is all about. The roots of this meme reach back to the days of yore, er, Yellon, when Darth Al quieted a rival with the Jedi mind trick of confirming that the Cubs did in fact suck with the immortal words, “I can’t argue with you today.”

    So to be “shut right up” in the truly Yellonian sense is not to be proved wrong but to be pronounced right by virtue of pleading no contest. To the layman this might seem like no big deal, but in the Church of the Blue-Blooded Baloney Sandwich it’s heresy.

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  35. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    It’s important to remember the requisite narcissism of the shutter-upper and the absolute insignificance of the shutter-uppee in the mind of the shutter-upper. If you’re the one being shut up you’re an NPC.

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  43. Author
    berselius

    andcounting: I think we need to have a “shut me right up” come to Jesus moment. We’ve gotten away from what “shut him right up” is all about. The roots of this meme reach back to the days of yore, er, Yellon, when Darth Al quieted a rival with the Jedi mind trick of confirming that the Cubs did in fact suck with the immortal words, “I can’t argue with you today.”

    So to be “shut right up” in the truly Yellonian sense is not to be proved wrong but to be pronounced right by virtue of pleading no contest. To the layman this might seem like no big deal, but in the Church of the Blue-Blooded Baloney Sandwich it’s heresy.

    It could go either way.

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  45. Author
    berselius

    Gotta love stl beat writer tweets to the tune of

    Derrick Goold
    @dgoold
    ·
    8m
    When the 2023 schedule came out with a long, West Coast road trip in the first month, however bad you thought that was going to be for the #stlcards, well ..

    It’s worse.

    And it’s only halfway over.
    https://stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/a-closer-on-ice-an-outfield-in-flux-cardinals-latest-deflating-loss-compounds-concerns/article_224c9990-e3b2-11ed-a4c6-9329790d06c3.html#tracking-source=mp-sports #Cardinals
    @stltoday

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  64. Rice Cube

    A “just get your work in” type of outing

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  66. andcounting

    Either gameday is off this season or the umps are really struggling with the strike zone. Either way, HOSMER!!!

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  83. andcounting

    Think about your life choices, Padres. It takes a lot of questionable living to make Fulmer look that good.

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  85. Rice Cube

    They’ve been playing the Harry Caray video a lot, which isn’t a big deal because he was fun, but I wonder if they ran out of funds for the actual living guest conductors

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  90. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube:
    They’ve been playing the Harry Caray video a lot, which isn’t a big deal because he was fun, but I wonder if they ran out of funds for the actual living guest conductors

    They were paying people to do that?

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  92. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    I have no idea, but I guess usually they have something to promote so maybe they were paying the Cubs for the air time, and if that’s the case then the prices went too damn high *too damn high guy dot jpg*

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  94. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I just don’t think they’re pushing it very hard anymore. My guess is when they have someone throw out the ceremonial first pitch (someone moderately notable, not the three VPs from Wintrust or whatever) they ask if they’re interested and if not no big deal.

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