Series Preview: Iowa Cubs of Chicago (46-70) at Cincinnati Reds (71-47)

In Series Previews by berselius40 Comments

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Contest reminder: Don't forget to enter our contest to win The Essential Games of the Chicago Cubs DVD set. It runs through Sunday, August 19.

The Cubs faced the Reds less than a week ago (here's the preview). Not much has changed (Cubs still suck, Reds still in first place, Joey Votto still hurt) so I'll just stick to looking at the pitching matchups for the series.

There is a bit of breaking analysis on Aroldis Chapman that I saw while I was trying to figure out who would start the second game of the double header. You might not believe this, but Aroldis Chapman is awesome against mediocre hitters and not as awesome against really good hitters. Who would have guessed? Top NL hitters are 2-5 against him (with 2 walks) and top AL hitters are 2-3 with one walk, so you know his struggles against good hitters are legit. The Reds better trade him while he has some value, before other front offices figure this out. He has bust written all over him.

Probable Pitchers

Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.52, 5.34, 4.69, 4.33) vs Bronson Arroyo, RHP (3.95, 4.17, 4.24, 4.83), 6:10 PM CT

Travis Wood's problems with HRs don't particularly bode well for an outing in the launching pad of GAB. It was his home park for two seasons, and in 2010 it superficially looks as if he didn't really have a problem there, as his home HR/9 was 0.81 and his road number was 0.79 (small sample sizes apply obviously). That looks great until you notice that he pitched 80.1 innings on the road and only 22.1 at home. That could be an accident of schedule, but I'm guessing the Reds knew he wasn't a great fit for the park. In 2011 he pitched 55.1 innings away from GAB with a HR/9 rate of 0.33, and had a much more expected HR/9 rate of 1.42 in his 50.2 innings at GAB. Luckily for Wood it's relatively cool and not particularly humid tonight.

Arroyo throws tons of garbage and a lot of it for strikes. It's baffling how his strikeouts have increased when there's been little change in how batters are approaching him compared to last year's hilariously disastrous season. He's getting slightly more batters to chase at pitches outside the zone, and a slight increase in called strikes, but that's about it. He's merely giving up a lot of home runs this year instead of a ton of them.

Saturday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.06, 3.54, 3.52, 3.86) vs Johnny Cueto, RHP (2.45, 3.04, 3.67, 3.67), 12:10 PM CT

Samardzija showed no signs of slowing down as he enters new innings pitched territory. He tied a season high with 11 strikeouts in seven innings against the Astros, allowing only a solo HR to Brandon Barnes. It was his sixth best start of the year by game score. Aside from his filthy splitter (profiled on Fangraphs the other day) his sinker seems to be working for him as well given his career high 1.45 GB/FB. Also, it's still technically Shark Week tomorrow so he's got that working for him too. Eno Sarris recently checked up on him at fangraphs, and all of his pFX-y peripherals continue to point more towards Samardzija's transformation leaning towards Autobot rather than a Decepticon with his first pitch strike, swings outside the zone, contact, and strikes in general percentages all above average.

Cueto gets a much better matchup than his last outing against Raley. He pitched eight innings of shutout ball against the Cubs in his last start.

Saturday: Brooks Raley. LHP (SSS) vs Someone, 6:10 PM CT

Raley managed to put together a nominally Quality Start against the Reds his last time out, allowing three runs in six innings and striking out two. His long term future with the team is probably as the next James Russell.

Sunday: Chris Volstad, RHP (6.96, 4.57, 4,48, 4.85) vs Mat Latos, RHP (3.63, 4.12, 3.84, 3.61), 12:10 PM CT

Chris Volstad is just like Cliff Lee, he's just a hard-luck guy who can't get that W that he keeps seeing on the horizon. After posting two straight quality starts following his Iowa exile, Volstad did Volstad things, giving up eight hits (three for extra bases) on the way to four runs in five innings. Somehow he only has a LD% of 21.3 this year.

Latos was supposed to be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Reds this year, but he got off to a slow start posting FIPs of 4.70 and 5.12 in April and May respectively. Since then, however, he's been the pitcher the Reds were hoping for when they acquired him for the blocked Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and the remains of ROY candidate Edinson Volquez's elbow.

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Comments

  1. mb21

    EnricoPallazzo wrote:

    mb – i question your discount rate. if you are saying that you will pay castro 40% of what he is worth in year 6, then that means that (to my way of thinking which may be erroneous) you are assuming that for every 10 players signed to six-year deals, 6 do not live up to expectations, 4 live up to expectations, and 0 exceed expectations. this is obviously simplified to illustrate a point, but do you think that is accurate? just wondering if there is empirical data behind your assumption, or if that is just standard practice (which i guess would imply that there is in fact supporting empirical data), or if that is just a semi-arbitrary number that you came up with.

    I mentioned in the post to basically ignore the yearly amount of money. If you’d like to look at this a different way, it’s a 35% discount overall. The way I did it was just to show that there’s more risk in later years. The contract itself would not be structured in the way I listed it in the last thread. He’d be paid relatively little over the next couple of years and then gradually more money like all the other pre-arbitration players who signed long-term contracts.

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  3. mb21

    Chris Volstad is just like Cliff Lee, he’s just a hard-luck guy who can’t get that W that he keeps seeing on the horizon.

    That’s the only time Volstad’s name will ever show up in a sentence with Cliff Lee. (dying laughing)

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  4. EnricoPallazzo

    @ mb21:
    yeah that makes more sense if you put it in big picture terms. (ie the whole contract vs comparable players’ whole contracts.) just struck me as odd to read that a 60% discount for year 6 is valid but i get it now.

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  7. Rizzo the Rat

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    The situation: runners on 1st and second with 2 outs (Sori on 1st, Riz on 2nd). Castro gets a single. Riz is stopped by third base coach after rounding third. Sori (assuming Riz would be sent) is caught between 2nd and third.

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  16. Mercurial Outfielder

    Halfway through the first quarter, Suh and Fairley have already committed 4 penalties, including a personal foul.

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  28. Rizzo the Rat

    Since his callup, Brett Jackson has struck out twice (5) more often than the Cubs have won (3). And that’s not even counting the times he struck out more than twice (2).

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  32. Mobile Rodrigo

    @ mb21:

    Did you see Jimmy Smits will have a large role in this season of SOA. I liked him in Dexter so this should be good. It premiers the 11th.

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  33. mb21

    @ Mobile Rodrigo:
    I didn’t see that. I liked him in Dexter too. I’ve never much liked him as an actor though. I watched SOA early last season after skipping the 3rd season and gave up. Great show it’s first season and a half.

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  35. SVB

    @ Rizzo the Rat:
    That’s what was reported on MLB radio. Isn’t he Canadian? Hilarious. Someone in charge of logistics for the Rangers is going to hear about this, if they are still employed.

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