The Tigers were the easy favorite to dominate the mediocre AL Central. They added Prince Fielder to a team that won the division by fifteen games in 2011, forming a core of starts that also includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Justin Verlander. Fielder has mashed since coming to the team, but not surprisingly the overall lineup has regressed (most notably Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta), though the offense is still in the upper third of the American League. Their pitching is even better than last year's (2nd in the AL), so what's the difference? The big concern when the Tigers signed Fielder was that it would move Miguel Cabrera over to 3b, and the Tigers went from an average defensive team to one of the worst in baseball, according to UZR (note: not so much with DRS, which agrees that the Tigers D is not good but has the Rockies at a whopping -52 runs below average. Hooray defensive metrics!).
The White Sox (33-27) and Indigenous Peoples (32-27) aren't exactly blowing the doors off the barn themselves. Detroit has dug a bit of a hole for itself (5 games back!!1!) and now only has a ~25% chance of making the playoffs according to BPro. They're still the best team in the division but the margin doesn't look nearly as close as everyone thought three months ago.
Team Overviews
Respective league rankings in parens
| Tigers | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .324 (5th) | .300 (14th) |
| BSR | -2.6 (13th) | 3.4 (3rd) |
| UZR | -24.2 (14th) | 3.8 (7th) |
| DRS | -18 (13th) | 0 (5th) |
| SIP FIP | 3.97 (2nd) | 4.06 (11th) |
| RP FIP | 3.63 (7th) | 4.68 (16th) |
Pitching matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP in parens
Tuesday: Max Scherzer, RHP (5.88, 4.44, 3.42, 4.01) vs Paul Maholm, LHP, (5.10, 5.10, 4.53, 4.21) 7:05 PM CT
Max Scherzer doing Max Scherzer things this year, and then some. He has a 11.19 K/9 and has given up 1.82 HR/9. He's a flyball pitcher so you expect more HRs but he's had problems keeping it in the yard anyway (11.7% career HR/FB). When he broke out with the DBacks in 08-09 the big question was durability. He came to the Tigers in the three team trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and I remember hearing that the DBacks wanted to sell high on him because they didn't think he could stick as a starter. Scherzer proved them wrong by throwing 31 and 33 starts in his first two years with the Tigers. He is a guy who can rack up big pitch counts early in games, hence his 195 IP total in those 33 starts, but he's been a pretty good pickup for Detroit. Pretty much everyone got something good out of the deal – Granderson has been nails with the Yankees, Austin Jackson has broken out with the Tigers, Ian Kennedy went from Yankees castoff to frontline starter, and even perenially overachieving Edwin Jackson threw a no-hitter for the Dbacks before participating in the theft of Daniel Hudson from the White Sox. It's the rare win-win-win trade. If anything Scherzer was the main disappointment, "only" posting 7.2 WAR in the two and a half seasons since.
So much for Paul Maholm's regression to the mean. He's had five crappy starts since his four-start run of worm killing baseball. In that stretch he's only given up less than four runs once, in a two run, five walk outing in five innings against his former team's anemic offense. I'll take the over on four runs tonight.
Wednesday: Rick Porcello, RHP (5.03, 4.40, 4.17, 4.24) vs Matt Garza, RHP (3.99, 4.07, 3.53, 3.67), 7:05 PM CT
I'm sensing a bit of a theme here among Tigers pitchers not named Justin with regards to ERA-FIP splits. Porcello is a ground ball machine playing in front of one of the worst infield defenses in baseball. He's a ground ball guy so more balls are going to get through, but a 1.54 WHIP with a 2.38 BB/9 has a lot to do with who is chasing after those balls in play.
Garza put together a pair of good starts to wash away his awful 5 HR stretch against the Pirates and Astros. Unlike Porcello teams aren't getting many hits off of him despite posting a career best GB%. The Cubs defense isn't as good as that .249 BABIP would indicate, however.
Thursday: Justin Verlander, RHP (2.69, 2.65, 3.29, 2.91) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.71, 6.22, 4.24, 4.21), 1:20 PM CT
The Cubs players might as well have their cars warmed up in the parking lot before this game even starts. Verlander leads all pitchers in MLB by WAR. Four pitchers (Greine, Sale, Gonzalez, Strasburg) have lower FIPs than Verlander, but he's thrown 20 more innings than all of them. Verlander threw 270 innings last year (including the playoffs) and is showing no signs of slowing down. Hoss Radbourn would still call him a nancy boy.
Wood is walking a ton of guys and giving up a lot of HR. I'm not as worried about the HR, since there's plenty of small sample size there (4 HR on a day where the wind is howling out is somewhat forgivable. Somewhat). But he's walking guys all over the place. And it's not like he had one or two bad outings for walks either, he's consistently walked two or three batters in all of his relatively short starts.
Comments
Rizzo, Rizzo, Rizzo, Rizzo, Castro, Rizzo, Castro, Castro, Rizzo, Rizzo
mb21Quote Reply
The most surprising team IMO this year is the Tigers. I thought they’d dominate that division.
mb21Quote Reply
….and initiate a federal prosecution against yourself?
GBTSQuote Reply
“Don’t even think of squealing to the feds that we knew all along, Jerry. I’ve got a ton more of willfully concealed evidence I was legally obligated to disclose years ago.”
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Agreed
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’m sure a judge would love to give PSU immunity in return for dismissing the wrongful termination lawsuit.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Cubs version of Morse code.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
More surprising than the Orioles? Really?
ACTQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
MB, even if the Cubs clone those guys they can’t post a 10-man lineup
BerseliusQuote Reply
Also, I never thought the Phils (aging as they are) to be in last place this late, let alone 8.5 games behind the Nats.
ACTQuote Reply
Oh, and then there’s the whole thing about the Pirates being in first.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
No one expects the Orioles to be anywhere near where they are now when the season ends. It looks much more likely at this point for Detroit.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Free State Brewery in Lawrence KS is making some really awesome beers. They just came out with a bock that is out of this world
dylanjQuote Reply
@ ACT:
You’re right.
mb21Quote Reply
I expected the Tigers to run away with the division. I also expected the Rangers to so that’s a little surprising too. The fact the Tigers aren’t even in 1st place is very surprising.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
One of them is DHing. The other is pitching. That good!
mb21Quote Reply
MD- do you think the Cubs could ask for Mike Olt in return for Dempster from Tex? With 3 starters on the DL they are hurting.
dylanjQuote Reply
I’ll bet Dempster does a great Rick Perry impression.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I think the only thing Dempster would execute are his pitches.
/rimshot
Rice CubeQuote Reply
FYI, tonight’s game is the mlb.tv free game. I’ll be having dinner with my lovely wife, but you all enjoy that while I enjoy rillettes and pork belly and pinot noir.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
yeah well i’ll be getting trashed in my basement eating leftovers. So I win.
dylanjQuote Reply
Hayden Simpson is on the Boise roster.
dylanjQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
I think their beers have really nice, well-executed flavor profiles, but the body isn’t really there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
so is Gioskar Amaya and Jeimer Candelario. Both those guys are worth watching
dylanjQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Don’t tell me what to do
Berselius22Quote Reply
@ dylanj:
Sure. Ask for a lot and settle lower. May as well start high. I don’t see how they could get him. The guy would be the Cubs 2nd or 3rd best prospect if they got him, but I highly doubt it. Maybe Dempster and Vitters.
mb21Quote Reply
Add a few years inflation onto $23.4 million and that’s how much Olt is worth. If you assume he’d be ranked higher at this point in the season then you’re probably talking $35 million surplus trade value for Olt alone. Dempster and Vitters may not be enough either.
mb21Quote Reply
As a public service announcement for MB, I’ll summarize the comments on the last thread.
Really, MB is excited about Rizzo. Really. As is yes, really, he is excited about Rizzo.
Just not really excited.
(dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I don’t see how half a season of Dempster and a utility guy = $23.4m, let alone $35
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius22:
Don’t presume to command me in the execution of certain deeds.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
the only downside to Olt is age and the strikeouts. but thats where I would start. I tend to think the national writers are correct in saying the extra wildcard will only increase demand and Dempster is pitching very well.
I still think the Dodgers overpay for him though.
dylanjQuote Reply
I just don’t see the Rangers dealing him. Definitely not for a rental. 3B is taken right now, but why not wait a year and a half and decide then? Olt would probably be better than Beltre at that point.
mb21Quote Reply
dylanj wrote:
It’s still mono-A, so he’ll fit right in
BerseliusQuote Reply
keep in mind teams probably dont valuate guys with the fangraphs WAR estimator. But yeah, Olt might be too much. I still think a B level prospect is reasonable.
dylanjQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t either. I’m going to post Dempster’s trade value tomorrow, but off the top of my head I’m thinking it’s about $0. If you want to buy in heavily that he’s a much improved pitcher (mistake IMO) then maybe you can up that to $5 million at the most. Vitters might have more value, but if he was nearly as valuable as Olt why make the trade?
Dempster and Jackson. That’s probably more realistic. It gives the Rangers a CF should Hamilton leave and a short-term pitcher who is still above average. If he pitches well the rest of the season the Rangers could offer arbitration with little risk of him accepting it.
mb21Quote Reply
Injury update, since I was too lazy to do it in the post.
Looks like Geo could be back for the Sox series this weekend
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I was assuming that the Cubs were paying all of the freight, even then I think it’s well short
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
No, but they don’t just throw names around either, dj. There is a method. What it is I don’t know, but they’re placing a value on each of the players in the trade and half a season for Dempster for one of the top hitting prospects in the game just isn’t a fair deal in any world. You’d need a desperate team and a dumb GM and even if that were true I still don’t think a deal is done.
I think Dempster might bring a solid relief prospect in return, but not much more than that. He’s not going to bring an every day player and certainly not a potential all-star with tremendous plate discipline, power and plus defense.
I do think Dempster plus Jackson could be enough if the team is desperate. Maybe Dempster, Jackson and someone else, but then you’re getting to the point of why bother trading a couple prospects to get one in return?
mb21Quote Reply
Right knee contusion for Rizzo. He’s day to day
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah. Even if the paid the $4 million or so remaining at the deadline it’s just not a feasible deal. But why not ask? They may think you’re joking, but go ahead and ask for it.
My guess is Olt is untouchable except for the right deal and the right deal being an impact player with more than a few months remaining on his contract.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Aren’t we all day to day?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It depends on the spot of the ball.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
GBTSQuote Reply
Wow, Soriano’s legs looked awful on that play
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m amazed that MLB.tv didn’t black me out today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
There’s a bologna sandwach in that bag so I’m good.
mb21Quote Reply
Max Scherzer must have contracted whatever virus makes you look 20 years older than your actual age from Jim Leyland
BerseliusQuote Reply
Nice bunt by Clevenger. 40 points.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
LaHair was in no-man’s land there, Johnny Cakes, and a good throw from Cabrera would have had him, you mustachioed dolt.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
How will the Cubs put up a 0 this inning?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
They won’t
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Shut you right up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs fail at failing. Stupid fucking bunts.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Or are they?
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
OMG BASKETBALL
GBTSQuote Reply
Brewers being nohit by Luis Fucking Mendoza
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Tigers have a lot of crappy regulars mixed in there with a few stars
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
TOOTBLAN…I hate that balk-that-isn’t though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m surprised Soriano didn’t die when Fielder sumo-slammed him on that pickoff.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soriano threw Young out at second, too bad the ump didn’t see it.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Love that human element!
ACTQuote Reply
Nice start by Maholm.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Here’s hoping Coleman doesn’t screw it up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
ugh
SVBQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
No dinner for us.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Are you guys watching this on MLB.com? I’m watching from North Carolina, and every ad is an attack ad on the GOP candidate for gov. I guess they can target based on IP address? Or are you learning about Pat McCrory’s questionable ethics too.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Haven’t actually seen any political ads, saw a couple DirecTV ads though. I’m just amazed that they didn’t black out the feed since I’m actually in Chicago.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dunn just hit his 21st. He hit 11 last year in far more at-bats.
ACTQuote Reply
Campana ties the ML lead for SBs, but I saw a list in the paper or online somewhere and he wasn’t listed in the SB leaders–apparently because he doesn’t have enough PA to qualify? That doesn’t make sense to me.
SVBQuote Reply
John Popper says, “We’ll keep blowing and sucking as long as they’ll let us.” Ha ha. So will the Cubs, but Brenly didn’t bite on that.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
My guess is they looked on Fangraphs (or some other site) and neglected to set the minimum PA to 0.
ACTQuote Reply
@ SVB:
He doesn’t have a lot of plate appearances I guess (only 131 including tonight) but every other time he’s on base he can get a bag or two. I wish he’d try to steal home just for the lulz.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Steal home! Steal home now!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs led by 3 when I turned it on. Half inning later they didn’t lead at all. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I can’t! WTF? Stupid MLB.com.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
That makes no sense at all (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Can’t watch the game? It’s the free game.
mb21Quote Reply
So could one share a window through Skype, and have that window be the video feed?
SVBQuote Reply
That was a good IF hit by Matt Clement.
SVBQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Detroit defense…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
2B ump paying the Cubs back for missing the earlier call?
SVBQuote Reply
The Tigers are a team built on the philosophy that infield defense isn’t important.
ACTQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m getting the blackout message. I’m in Champaign, and RC is in Chicago, but I’m blacked out. Typical.
joshQuote Reply
Who’s the lucky recipient of the closer role tonight?
ACTQuote Reply
Ah, Camp!
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Oh dear God, no!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
He’s actually having a solid year so far. Which, on this team, is good enough to earn MVP status.
ACTQuote Reply
@ josh:
Camp was awarded the Cubs Player of the Month before the game today. I guess for May.
SVBQuote Reply
A closer with a fastball that sits in the mid-80’s? Maybe he’s the next Trevor Hoffman!
ACTQuote Reply
Canning Jaramillo made a huge difference in how the Cubs score runs (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs win a 1-run game!!!!
SVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
The Cubs drew 7 walks! Their new philosophy has already taken effect!
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Zonk said he was playing when they fired Don Zimmer, and the GM gathered them and yelled at them and told them it was their fault for playing like shit, and they got Don Zimmer fired. It made me think maybe there’s a clubhouse dynamic sort of thing going on. It seems transparent to me from the outside, but I’m not the one being yelled at.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
They could yell at you for not spending enough money on Cubs swag and tickets.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Watched the replay. Peralta to the 2nd basemant actually looked like a good play by 2B that the umpire missed. Eh, I’ll take it.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Someone pointed out that a bad call at second also jumpstarted the Tigers rally, so it evens out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
As Brenly said tonight, “This game is just screaming for instant replay.”
SVBQuote Reply
@ josh:
It looked like Castro was out at first, too. Still, those plays shouldn’t have been close.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Very true.
joshQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://teamcoco.com/video/rahm-emanuel-test
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Dead baby ads are the best.
joshQuote Reply
Booing Chase Utley after his 3rd K in a rehab assignment? Phillies fans are something else.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/utley_booed_after_fifth_at_bat_ends_in_third_strikeout#When:13:34:03Z
MishQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Hey SK, is that one of your early ad campaigns?
(dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
RIP, Dave Kaplan.
http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/spray-tan-pose-health-risk-16554698
Aisle424Quote Reply
dj’s minor league shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-paul-blart-mall-cop-extended-directors-cut-dvd.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ SVB:
Yes, it’s in my portfolio but none of the agencies I’m interviewing with now seem too impressed. But it was the Saturday Evening Post I tell them!
Suburban kidQuote Reply