After hosting the Cubs last week, the Rockies dropped a series at home vs the Giants and lost 2 of 3 against the Marlins, where they were nearly no-hit on Friday by Anibal Sanchez. They no longer have the best record in baseball (that belongs to the Phillies) but they’re one game off the pace.
Team Overview
Team stats and NL ranks
wOBA: .328 (6th)
UZR: 6.6 (3rd)
DRS: 13 (1st)
SP FIP: 4.43 (11th)
SP xFIP: 4.13 (11th)
RP FIP: 3.23 (5th)
RP xFIP: 3.29 (4th)
Batters:
| Player | wOBA | ZiPS wOBA |
| CF Dexter Fowler | .340 | .346 |
| 2B Jonathan Herrera | .426 | .305 |
| LF Carlos Gonzalez | .279 | .373 |
| SS Troy Tulowitzki | .478 | .394 |
| 1B Todd Helton | .370 | .343 |
| RF Seth Smith | .400 | .369 |
| 3B Ty Wigginton | .269 | .337 |
| C Chris Iannetta | .384 | .358 |
The Rockies nominal starters on opening day, 2b Jose Lopez and 3b Ian Stewart have more or less lost their jobs due to sucking. The rest of the lineup more than made up for their slack. One thing I was reminded of when looking up these numbers was just how good Todd Helton was early in his career. He’s a shell of the player he once was, but from 2000-2005 he posted 41.6 WAR, with a wOBA over .400 every season. His main skill these days are getting on base and playing defense, but some of that power is still there.
Pitchers:
| Player | FIP | ZiPS FIP |
| RHP Ubaldo Jiminez | 6.68 | 3.24 |
| LHP Jorge de la Rosa | 3.17 | 3.77 |
| RHP Jhoulys Chacin | 3.79 | 3.93 |
| RHP Jason Hammel | 4.52 | 3.66 |
| RHP Esmil Rogers | 5.61 | 4.30 |
| RHP Huston Street | 2.82 | 3.05 |
| RHP Rafael Betancourt | 4.33 | 3.30 |
The Cubs just missed Jiminez in the last series, who was coming back from a thumb injury, and will miss him again in this one. The Rockies are also missing worm-killing SP Aaron Cook, who broke a finger in spring training. He’s currently on the 60-day DL and the Cubs won’t see him this season unless they are somehow playing in October.
Probable Pitchers
(ERA, FIP, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP in parens)
Monday: Esmil Rogers, RHP (6.75, 5.61, 4.92, 4.30) vs Matt Garza, RHP (4.74, 1.26, 1.92, 3.91), 7:05 PM CT
Rogers pitched well in his first start against the Pirates, getting plenty of ground balls and striking out seven. In his two following starts, he wasn’t fooling anyone. He only struck out two while walking 4 against the Mets but wasn’t hurt too badly, and he was hammered by the Giants in his last start to the tune of 3 HRs in three innings. He tries to keep the ball on the ground, but he’ll put plenty of players on the bases.
Garza spun a great game against the Padres his last time out, but got no support from the offense. Whatever he’s doing with his pitch mix, it’s working though I don’t think he’ll sustain a 12+ K/9 rate (laughing). Oddly enough he has yet to give up a HR this year. That’s going to end soon too, especially if the wind keeps blowing out this week.
Tuesday: Joge De La Rosa, LHP (3.00, 3.17, 3.99, 3.77) vs James Russell, LHP (8.00, 6.60, 4.34, 5.57), 7:05 PM CT
De La Rosa is a lot like Wandy Rodriguez, in that I saw him stink up the joint early in his career (with the Brewers) and anything he’s done since then can’t shake my initial impression. Since coming to the Rockies he’s posted good but not particularly great numbers. He’s posted surprisingly good strikeout numbers relative to his early career, when he was primarily a reliever, but has trouble with walks.
I’d rather just see the Cubs call up Jay Jackson to start this game, since he’s slated to pitch on Tuesday for the Iowa Cubs anyway, and have Russell relieve him. Why not? It’s going to be a bullpen day anyway.
Wednesday: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (2.67, 3.79, 3.52, 3.93) vs Casey Coleman, RHP (7.43, 5.90, 5.61, 4.92), 1:20 PM CT
Chacin dominated the Cubs in their last meeting, throwing a complete game shutout at Coors (no easy feat). Aside from that Cubs game, he’s had a tough time getting many strikeouts. It’s not as big of a deal because he’s more of a ground ball pitcher anyway. ZiPS does not like his control, projecting him to a 4.47 BB/9 rate, so it will be extra frustrating every time Byrd or Barney swings at his first pitch.
Coleman was hit hard by the Dodgers in his last start, though somehow no balls left the yard. He’s been a little unlucky with balls in play, but so far he’s looked eminently hittable. So much for the Confidence Aura of Mike Quade helping him out.
Prediction
The first game should be a good one, but the Rockies have a huge advantage in the last two games. Rockies win 2 out of 3. and break the Cubs streak of hitting all of the X-X .500 records.
Comments
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Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb].[/quote]
The fool has been pitied.
Games against the Marlins are less than mentionable?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Games against the Marlins are less than mentionable?[/quote]
(dying laughing), I wrote this yesterday and meant to fill in that blank.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The fool has been pitied[/quote]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_wvipkI5r0
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Meaningless as I always say this stuff is, I’ll be really fascinated to see what happens when Todd Helton is eligible for the Hall of Fame. Seems to me he should be a no-brainer first- or second-ballot guy, but I’m sure more than a few writers will accuse his numbers of being inflated by Coors and PEDs.
AndCountingQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/25/the-legend-of-sam-fuld-grows/
Someone needs to Photoshop a SuperFuld cape onto Fuld. Who doesn’t believe in clutch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What size pizza, Mr. T?!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxwr884mtxg
(dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Three.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.cubsfx.com/2011/04/rogers-in-neighborhood-rox-v-cubs-game.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/25/the-legend-of-sam-fuld-grows/
Someone needs to Photoshop a SuperFuld cape onto Fuld. Who doesn’t believe in clutch.[/quote]
(dying laughing), somebody needs to post Fuld’s quote from this link at BCB. All his fans would shit their pants.
LukasQuote Reply
STATS DONT TELL THE WHOLE STORY SAM!!!
/Yellon’d
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Meaningless as I always say this stuff is, I’ll be really fascinated to see what happens when Todd Helton is eligible for the Hall of Fame. Seems to me he should be a no-brainer first- or second-ballot guy, but I’m sure more than a few writers will accuse his numbers of being inflated by Coors and PEDs.[/quote]Has he been linked to steroids or PEDs before?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Has he been linked to steroids or PEDs before?[/quote]
Performance-enhancing atmosphere, for sure.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Has he been linked to steroids or PEDs before?[/quote]He was accused of it at one time and from what I remember it was completely baseless. But for some BBWAA members, that slightest whiff of smoke is enough proof for them that there was fire.
AndCountingQuote Reply
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050321/news_1s21steroids.html
I guarantee, for a lot of voters, this is enough. If I’m wrong, you can all have your $10 back.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Has he been linked to steroids or PEDs before?[/quote]
Anyone who put up any power numbers in this era will be tarred with the PED brush, unless your name is Albert Pujols or Ken Griffey Jr.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050321/news_1s21steroids.html
I guarantee, for a lot of voters, this is enough. If I’m wrong, you can all have your $10 back.[/quote]
That would be disgraceful if that made them vote against Helton. I recognize that everyone is “suspect,” but questionable second-hand allegations should never be used as proof.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050321/news_1s21steroids.html
I guarantee, for a lot of voters, this is enough. If I’m wrong, you can all have your $10 back.[/quote]You stay classy, San Diego.
/Burgundy’d
MuckerQuote Reply
I just looked on B-Ref and God Damn did Helton and Walker put up monster seasons with the Rockies. So did Galaragga, Castilla, and Bichette. I had no idea that thin air would make that much of a difference.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]I just looked on B-Ref and God Damn did Helton and Walker put up monster seasons with the Rockies. So did Galaragga, Castilla, and Bichette. I had no idea that thin air would make that much of a difference.[/quote]
Helton’s 2000 season was just insnae. Bonds-esque.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090501053447AAyrN13
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Helton’s 2000 season was just insnae. Bonds-esque.[/quote]Incredible. He came in 5th place in MVP voting. Led the league in H, 2B, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, TB and WAR.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) @ http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090501053447AAyrN13%5B/quote%5D
-faget point for sending us to a deleted question.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
It’s not deleted.
mb21Quote Reply
.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s not deleted.[/quote]
It was a second ago. +faget point.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
Bob Stoops will appear on that gif.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Prep arm Dylan Bundy so far this year:
8-0, 0.29 ERA, 48 IP, 8 CG, 11 H, 111 K, 3 BB
So much for him going to Texas…
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Prep arm Dylan Bundy so far this year:
8-0, 0.29 ERA, 48 IP, 8 CG, 11 H, 111 K, 3 BB
So much for him going to Texas…[/quote]Three walks? I don’t know jack about HS stats, but that can’t be normal.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I don’t think it’s too uncommon, AC. I’ve seen some HS stats for pitchers that are just comical. I think Mark Pawelek (first round pick for the Cubs) struck out well over 2 batters per inning his senior year and close to 500 in his high school career. Not sure about the walks, but the strikeout totals can look ridiculous.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Prep arm Dylan Bundy so far this year:
8-0, 0.29 ERA, 48 IP, 8 CG, 11 H, 111 K, 3 BB
So much for him going to Texas…[/quote]
It’s nice to know that this kid’s competition is still more patient than Marlon Byrd.
(I kid, of course)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wtf? Imageshack doesn’t host gifs for free anymore??
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Wtf? Imageshack doesn’t host gifs for free anymore??[/quote]It’s an unwritten rule.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s an unwritten rule.[/quote](dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Posted the “heart” thread at BCB. Let’s see what happens.
MishQuote Reply
You’re going to get yourself banned
mb21Quote Reply
You can’t link to articles I’ve written over there. It’s not even an unwritten rule.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Posted the “heart” thread at BCB. Let’s see what happens.[/quote]This should have been a FanShot.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I should have been banned long ago. I’m playing with house money.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]This should have been a FanShot.[/quote]Correctly
MishQuote Reply
You know yellon is just going to claim that he was talking about later in2010 or the whole year
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]You know yellon is just going to claim that he was talking about later in2010 or the whole year[/quote]Then someone just has to ask him if he felt the 2010 team was different than the 2009 team at this point. I’ll bet anything we can find articles where he said exactly the same thing this time last year.
It’s nothing more than Al convincing himself that the current year’s team is different from the one before that failed. I vaguely recall him doing the same thing in 2006 too. Someone should call him on it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Then someone just has to ask him if he felt the 2010 team was different than the 2009 team at this point. I’ll bet anything we can find articles where he said exactly the same thing this time last year.
It’s nothing more than Al convincing himself that the current year’s team is different from the one before that failed. I vaguely recall him doing the same thing in 2006 too. Someone should call him on it.[/quote]You’re right of course, but what’s the point in calling him out? Don’t presume to tell him how to be a fan. If he wants to think this is the year every year no matter how good the team is, he’s never going to change. It seems like the vast majority of the commenters over there feel the same way.
Mish’s comment so far has been ignored, and it will continue to be. Seriously, if it had been posted as a FanShot (which is the correct way to post links to third party content), it might grab a few eyeballs. But most of those will reject logic in favor of early season hope.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
When the team sucks, all you got to hold onto is luck, chemistry and heart.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It’s just classic selective memory or revisionist history, whatever you want to call it. When a person wants to feel better about anything in the present (life, the Cubs, society in general), they need only recall something negative about the past and compare it with something positive going on now. The Cubs came back to win a game. Last year there were times when they failed. It’s better now, yay!
And if you want to criticize something now, you just bring up the good old days. If Mike Quade does something stupid, recall something smart or gutsy that Don Zimmer did (one of the dumb moves that worked). Why can’t this year’s team be more like that?!
It’s just kind of boring to be honest about this team, and it has been the past couple of years.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Although your comment will be lost in a sea of inanity, Mish, I want you to know that I rec’d it.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Did Alvin mention in his recap of yesterday’s game that they folded after being down early, just like they would in 2009?
GBTSQuote Reply
It’s a way of life.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Although your comment will be lost in a sea of inanity, Mish, I want you to know that I rec’d it.[/quote]Thx!
MishQuote Reply
Exactly. This isn’t specific to Cubs fans by any means. When it’s something that’s far more important than sports, people do try to set the record straight with facts as they should. SK is right that it’s going to be ignored though.
mb21Quote Reply
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/games/rockies-at-cubs-4-25-2011.html
mb21Quote Reply
I’ve lurked around your other sites before this one started last month. I like the stats-minded approach and most commentary. If you guys focused your energy on more baseball and less bitching about Al this place would be even better–it’s the damn internet–don’t read his shit if you don’t like it. I’m no Al-homer but I don’t see the point in wasting keystrokes on it.
dtpollittQuote Reply
[quote name=dtpollitt]I’ve lurked around your other sites before this one started last month. I like the stats-minded approach and most commentary. If you guys focused your energy on more baseball and less bitching about Al this place would be even better–it’s the damn internet–don’t read his shit if you don’t like it. I’m no Al-homer but I don’t see the point in wasting keystrokes on it.[/quote]I used to think it was immature. Then I thought it was boring. Then I started to enjoy the comedy and still do. As Ryno said, Alvin bashing will end when he stops making it so easy.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=dtpollitt]I’ve lurked around your other sites before this one started last month. I like the stats-minded approach and most commentary. If you guys focused your energy on more baseball and less bitching about Al this place would be even better–it’s the damn internet–don’t read his shit if you don’t like it. I’m no Al-homer but I don’t see the point in wasting keystrokes on it.[/quote]Just imagine if we focused our energy on finding a cure for this disease.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I used to think it was immature. Then I thought it was boring. Then I started to enjoy the comedy and still do. As Ryno said, Alvin bashing will end when he stops making it so easy.[/quote]
Yeah, that’s fine with me. Selfishly, I can always appreciate and read more Cubs’ knowledge that’s smart and funny–I just find the BCB-bashing to be funny for about 20 minutes, then tiresome.
dtpollittQuote Reply