Team overview
As always, these are team stats with NL ranks in parentheses.
| Reds | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .323 (4th) | .316 (8th) |
| UBR | 14.2 (1st) | -11.4 (16th) |
| UZR | 39.8 (2nd) | -9.1 (10th) |
| SP FIP | 4.49 (16th) | 4.26 (12th) |
| RP FIP | 3.99 (15th) | 3.93 (13th) |
As usual, I feel smug about my pessimism towards the Reds pitching staff turning out to be true. I had no idea that they would be this awful though. As Cubs fans well know, depth in starting pitching can disappear incredibly quickly.
Since the Reds and the Cubs are the best and worst teams in the NL in baserunning*, let’s go back to check who the biggest offenders/assets are on the teams. Drew Stubbs, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce lead the way for the Reds, with plodders Ramon Hernandez and Joey Votto the only players with significant negative numbers. For the Cubs, Darwin Barney has been the only one worth a damn on the bases, while the departed Kosuke Fukudome and, unsurprisingly, Aramis Ramirez and the decaying remains of Alfonso Soriano‘s legs have been the worst offenders on an overall terrible baserunning team.
bonus fact, the Boston Red Sox, with noted baserunning whizes Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the lineup, are the only other team with negative double digits in UBR.
I was surprised to see the Cubs UZR numbers inching up since the last time I wrote one of these. Marlon Byrd leads the team in UZR with 5.2, but the biggest surprise is Soriano, who is somehow posting a 3.6 UZR on the year. DRS has him at -3 as opposed to the -15 or so I was expecting. Ah, defensive metrics.
Pitching matchups
Monday: Dontrelle Willis, LHP (4.10, 4.13, 3.87, 5.13) vs Matt Garza, RHP (3.64, 3.01, 3.14, 3.69), 1:20 PM CT
The projections still think he’s pitching with a giant fork in his back, but kudos to Willis for putting together a solid season. He’s still walking a lot of batters (4.10 BB/9) but at least his pitches are now closer to home plate instead of the on-deck circle. He and Cueto have been the few bright spots in the Reds pitching staff this year.
Garza started the season with an insane strikeout rate, then saw his numbers wind down a bit surrounding his DL stint. I’m glad to see that he is still maintaining a K-rate of more than a batter per inning. He’s a different (for the better) pitcher than he was with Tampa, and all credit to the Cubs for grabbing him. They could still regret the trade, but it’s pretty much going to come down to Hak-Ju Lee who I’m still not all that high on, whatever Keith Law thinks.
Tuesday: Mike Leake, RHP (4.12, 4.31, 3.66, 4.24) vs Rodrigo Lopez, LOL (4.94, 5.47, 4.51, 5.40), 7:05 PM CT
Leake has had some problems with home runs (not surprising given his home park), but has otherwise had a fine season. There’s been no sophomore slump for Leake – he’s increased his strikeouts and slashed his walk rate by over a batter per nine.
Wednesday: Johnny Cueto, RHP (2.29, 3.51, 3.89, 3.52) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (4.75, 3.76, 3.46, 3.83), 7:05 PM CT
I thought Cueto’s numbers would have regressed since the last time the Cubs faced him, but he’s still carrying a .245 BABIP despite a 53.6% GB rate. Unfortunately for the Reds, Edinson Volquez has been as awful as Cueto has been good.
There’s little doubt that Dempster will pick up his player option next year, given his family situation and his media role as Ginger the Clown. He’s continued to post solid numbers after his disastrous April, and if we’re reading the tea leaves wrong and the Cubs go all in yet again in 2012 he’ll be a solid contributer.
Prediction
Cubs win today, lose the next two. It’s too bad for the Reds that their most effective starters are lined up against such a sorry offense.
Comments
My memory of this season has been that Soriano has actually been not too bad. I can remember early on in the season a play where he gave up on a fly ball that ended up staying in the park, but otherwise, I really don’t think he’s been as bad this year in the field.
binkyQuote Reply
Cubs are last in Defensive Efficiency and DRS.
ACTQuote Reply
But, I also don’t think Soriano has cost the team anything like 15 runs in defense. Left fielders are pretty terrible in general.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]But, I also don’t think Soriano has cost the team anything like 15 runs in defense. Left fielders are pretty terrible in general.[/quote]My gut tells me he’s cost them 8 to 10. i’d say it’s more if I was able to watch more left fielders play on a daily basis, but I don’t so I don’t know. Soriano is terrible defensively and probably costs the team a win with his defense or more.
mb21Quote Reply
An Unobstructed View: http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/general/when-not-to-bunt.html
mb21Quote Reply
LaHair getting the start at 1B.
ACTQuote Reply
Gotta see how he hits southpaws, I guess.
ACTQuote Reply
*sigh*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s been a pretty epic collapse by the Giants. Their playoff odds used to be in the 90’s and they were considered a lock.
ACTQuote Reply
This looks to be a boring final month, as far as pennant races are concerned.
ACTQuote Reply
BJax —> Team USA
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2011/09/05/i-cubs-jackson-goes-red-white-and-blue/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yonder Alonso is a guy that I think has been discussed in the Cubs blogosphere quite a bit, and honestly I find the idea of trading for him to be quite appealing.
It may be rare to see division rivals make significant trades, but I think the Cubs have to at least check on the asking price for him this offseason. I had no idea how well he was swinging the bat until today, and there’s no doubt his strong showing will up his trade value quite a bit, but the Cubs and Reds are in highly contrasting situations with respect to contending in the NL, so I’m inclined to believe a deal could be made. The Cubs would have to part with some legitimate value, and it isn’t totally clear what they could offer to make a trade worth the Reds while, but I still think this is an interesting idea.
What about Sean Marshall? I know the Reds need pitching, and while the Cubs certainly don’t have any of the starting variety to spare, Marshall is a good, valuable reliever who the Reds would have to have some interest in. He’s probably the starting point if the Cubs ever get serious about making this sorta deal.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Since berselius is patting himself on the back I’d like to go ahead and pat myself on the back for saying the Brewers would run away with this division. I expected them to win it by 10 games or more and they currently have a 9.5 game lead. I am going to be wrong about them having the best wRC+ in the NL though. They’ll have the 2nd best.
mb21Quote Reply
Jack, Alonso would be a great target, but there have been rumors since the trade deadline that the Reds are looking to trade Votto. If I recall, there were a lot of rumors about a Votto/Bautista trade at the end of July. If they choose to stick with Votto then I agree the Cubs should go all in and try to acquire Alonso, but it might make more sense for them to trade Votto.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Since berselius is patting himself on the back I’d like to go ahead and pat myself on the back for saying the Brewers would run away with this division. I expected them to win it by 10 games or more and they currently have a 9.5 game lead. I am going to be wrong about them having the best wRC+ in the NL though. They’ll have the 2nd best.[/quote]
No shame in patting yourself on the back on occasion, and not to rain on that parade, but I feel obligated to mention you also said they would easily score more runs than anyone in the NL.
Not taking away from you calling the division– I actually thought the Reds would repeat this year. I honestly wasn’t planning on revisiting this, but you taking about the Brewers just reminded me of it.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Jack, Alonso would be a great target, but there have been rumors since the trade deadline that the Reds are looking to trade Votto. If I recall, there were a lot of rumors about a Votto/Bautista trade at the end of July. If they choose to stick with Votto then I agree the Cubs should go all in and try to acquire Alonso, but it might make more sense for them to trade Votto.[/quote]
Yeah, ya know the other day I brought this up in Dave Cameron’s weekly FG chat, and FWIW he agreed that a Votto trade seems really unlikely. Not out of the question, by any means, but I just think it would be completely foolish for the Reds to trade him. The Reds should absolutely be focused on winning the division the next two years, and I don’t think there’s any scenario that involves trading Joey Votto that makes winning more likely for them.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Castro breaks up the perfect game.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]No shame in patting yourself on the back on occasion, and not to rain on that parade, but I feel obligated to mention you also said they would easily score more runs than anyone in the NL.
Not taking away from you calling the division– I actually thought the Reds would repeat this year. I honestly wasn’t planning on revisiting this, but you taking about the Brewers just reminded me of it.[/quote]Yeah I said that. I pointed out the offense thing, but I had forgotten about the runs scored. I did figure their offense would be really good. I guess I never even looked at their runs scored total. I was actually surprised the projections and more people weren’t picking the Brewers to run away with it. I actually started to question myself and then I remember doing that interview on the Brewers Bar. I looked over who they had in comparison to the rest of the division and it just confirmed my uneducated opinion. You never know what happens in one season, but I fugured they were a good 10-15 wins better than the next best team. I was thinking the 2011 Brewers were about the same as the 2008 Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
I also thought the Reds would be good, Jack. I know Berselius wasn’t expecting much, but I really thought it would the Brewers at the top by a long way followed by the Reds well above anyone else. I thought the NL Central has 2 good teams and I could have seen the Cubs finishing anywhere from 3rd to 5th.
mb21Quote Reply
Did that hit Alonso’s glove?
mb21Quote Reply
The Brewers have been a bit lucky in their record (relative to their run differential, pythag, etc.). The Brewers haven’t been much better in terms of runs scored vs. runs allowed than the Cards or Reds
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Did that hit Alonso’s glove?[/quote]Stupid ivy.
binkyQuote Reply
Damn ivy.
ACTQuote Reply
Adam Dunn has been given a rare start. 0-3, K.
ACTQuote Reply
Rami!
ACTQuote Reply
Baker likes southpaws.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Since berselius is patting himself on the back I’d like to go ahead and pat myself on the back for saying the Brewers would run away with this division. I expected them to win it by 10 games or more and they currently have a 9.5 game lead. I am going to be wrong about them having the best wRC+ in the NL though. They’ll have the 2nd best.[/quote]
heh, I liked the Cardinals. I’ll pat myself on the back instead for grinding my axe on both the Reds pitching staff and Carl Crawford in the same article.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]heh, I liked the Cardinals. I’ll pat myself on the back instead for grinding my axe on both the Reds pitching staff and Carl Crawford in the same article.[/quote]How is Crawford doing these days? Has he gotten a restraining order on you yet? (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]How is Crawford doing these days? Has he gotten a restraining order on you yet? (dying laughing)[/quote]
I think I left his voodoo doll back in TX
BerseliusQuote Reply
Is it still considered a TOOTBLAN if the defense was just really really good?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What does The Book say on that send? I’m skeptical, if only because Castro would have been in the hole and Barney couldn’t have GIDP’d.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]What does The Book say on that send? .[/quote]Nothing. But you can use the WE charts to draw conclusions.
ACTQuote Reply
If they don’t send (runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out) the win expectancy is .913. If they send, and Soto scores, WE is .953. If they send and Soto is out, WE is .854. So, I guess you want a better than 50-50 chance of him scoring.
ACTQuote Reply
I would also take the contact rate of the next batter and pitcher into consideration. A strikeout is very bad if you don’t send (1 out, runners on second and third). Barney’s sole virtue as a hitter is his contact rate, but Chapman is a very high-strikeout pitcher.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I would also take the contact rate of the next batter and pitcher into consideration. A strikeout is very bad if you don’t send (1 out, runners on second and third). Barney’s sole virtue as a hitter is his contact rate, but Chapman is a very high-strikeout pitcher.[/quote]That’s a good point. Chapman probably had more to do with that decision than anything. Figure you’re not going to get many good hits off him.
binkyQuote Reply
Excellent play by Castro to close it out.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]That’s a good point. Chapman probably had more to do with that decision than anything. Figure you’re not going to get many good hits off him.[/quote]Also, the wind was blowing in. More reason to take chances.
ACTQuote Reply
Soto is slow…
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18870357
And Phillips is fapping to celebrate his great throw.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/why-extending-oneri-fleita-and-possibly-tim-wilkens-contract-doesnt-matter.html
mb21Quote Reply