Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (89-50) at Houston Astros (74-66)

In Series Previews by berselius89 Comments

Remember when the Astros were bad? Like, earlier this year? They got off to a brutal start, going 7-17 in April, and a lot of people (read: me) saw that guys like Dallas Keuchel continued to struggle and simply wrote them off/laughed them away as a one-year fluke. Then they quietly won a whole bunch of games, and dug themselves out of their hole to the point that they were 48-41 at the all-star break. Since then they’ve played more or less .500 ball, and find themselves eight or so games back of the Rangers but in the thick of it for the wild card. When your pitching implodes, it sure helps to have the NMT-MVP in the lineup.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Kris Bryant (.397)
  • ISO: Bryant (.271)
  • HR: Bryant (36)
  • R+RBI: Bryant (203)
  • wRC+: Bryant (157)
  • BSR: Bryant (6.0)
  • SP K%: John Lackey (24.8%)
  • SP BB%: Kyle Hendricks (6.2%)
  • SP K-BB%: Lackey (18.0%)
  • SP ERA: Hendricks (2.10)
  • SP FIP: Hendricks (3.37)
  • RP K%: Aroldis Chapman (43.8%)
  • RP BB%: Hector Rondon (3.6%)
  • RP K-BB%: Chapman (35.6%)
  • RP ERA: Chapman (1.45)
  • RP FIP: Chapman (0.69)
  • fWAR: Bryant (7.8)

Astros

 

McCullers leads most of these categories, but he went down with an elbow injury back in August and might be done for the year.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each starter.

Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.73, 2.50, 2.61, 3.65, 3.29) vs Joe Musgrove, RHP (8.44, 1.93, 5.06, 4.52, 5.14), 7:10 PM CT

Musgrove’s strikeout and walk numbers are actually pretty good, the problem is that he has given up seven home runs in as many appearances. He’s mostly a fastball-slider guy, and results-wise his fastball has been above average despite hovering around 91-92. His scouting report last offseason had his MLB ETA as 2018, which probably sums up how ramshackle the Astros staff has been this yea.r

Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (8.82, 2.42, 3.36, 3.68, 3.42) vs Collin McHugh, RHP (8.80, 2.54, 4.96, 4.17, 4.00), 12:05 PM CT

Lackey was solid in his first start back from the DL. Given the hiccups Hammel has had lately, the Cubs are hoping that he’s fully recovered and can use the rest of the month to stretch back out before the playoffs.

McHugh was a nice surprise for the Astros when they picked him up off the scrap heap in 2014 following disastrous stints with the Mets and Rockies. His strikeout and walk rates this year haven’t budged much but he’s giving up a ton more hits to the tune of a .361 BABIP. Which may be a fluke, but he’s also given up home runs at nearly twice his previous rate, which makes it sound like batters are just crushing him this year when they make contact. Except strangely enough back in July he was neck and neck with Cyle Hendricks for one of the best weak contact rates in the league (per exit velocity). Go figure.

Sunday: Jay Carrieta, RHP (8.69, 3.47, 2.84, 3.42, 2.86) vs Mike Fiers, RHP (7.01, 2.17, 4.29, 4.55, 4.39), 7:05 PM CT

Fiers was a big strikeout guy with the Brewers, and that trend continued after he went over to the Astros last year. This year, not so much. Like seemingly every other Astros starter this year he’s also giving up way more home runs than usual. Maybe they have a reverse humidor in Houston or something.

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Comments

  21. cerulean

    Speaking of strange, I am conflicted about the Mets’ success, but I would like to see a rematch in the postseason, because fuck the Cardinals.

    And the Mets too while we’re handing out maledictions.

    Go…Rockies?

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  27. GW

    Rizzo the Rat,

    Keeping score on the Astros :

    2012: win. looked bad for about two years, but has payed off spectacularly. Buxton still has a chance to make this more equitable.
    2013: bust. However, no one at the time thought they were going cheap. Appel was the favorite at that spot, and all indications from the day of were that the Cubs would also have taken him, given the chance.
    2014: win. History has been kind to dealings that seemed like shameless opportunism at the moment. Aiken broke, Jacob Nix got paid, and Bregman is a monster.

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  28. dmick89

    Yeah, the Appel vs. Bryant thing is kind of strange since almost every team had Appel first, all the analysts had him first and from all indications the Cubs would also have taken him given the chance to do so. The Astros have done quite well for themselves through the draft.

    At the time I thought it was a steal that the Astros paid less for Appel than the Cubs did for Bryant. Glad it worked out well for the Cubs though.

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  29. GW

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I would also add that in most situations, rooting for your favorite team to save a few hundred thousand dollars is dumb, but in the draft, it is a real boon. That money is why they have McCullers. Did random guy on twitter realize that? No idea, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Similarly, the risk for the Cubs with Bryant was losing Trevor Clifton. Pretty trivial all things considered, but at the moment he is one of the few pitchers in the system with a clue as to how to miss bats.

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  30. Author
    berselius

    dmick89: At the time I thought it was a steal that the Astros paid less for Appel than the Cubs did for Bryant. Glad it worked out well for the Cubs though.

    You don’t think that the jury is still out on Bryant? (dying laughing)

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  32. SK

    So, what’s up with Joe’s re-jiggering of the rotation order? It is now Lester-Lackey-Arrieta-Hendricks-Hammel-Montgomery.

    If he sticks with the 6-man, then the season ends on Hammel’s turn.

    Does he really see Lester-Lackey-Arrieta as his 1-2-3 for the playoffs? Priority on grizzled postseason veterans?

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  33. Author
    berselius

    GW: Buxton still has a chance to make this more equitable.

    The Twins still have a chance to send him to AAA a few more times or keep him around as a fifth OF or something.

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  36. dmick89

    SK,

    The Cubs will have several days off at the end of the season to get the rotation in any order they want. My guess is Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hendricks and Hammel complains for 6 months.

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  39. Author
    berselius

    I was too lazy to write a recap of last night’s game, but my biggest takeaway was that Rondon looks like he’s blown the rust off.

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