The Pirates are only 2.5 back from the Cardinals going into this series, and I wouldn’t mind seeing that lead shrink even further with the Cubs help. It could be a tall order even with the Cubs help though, as the Cardinals are playing a team even worse than the Rizzo/Castro-less Cubs as they host Colorado in St. Louis.
The Cubs are riding a six-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by what feels like 50 runs a game. Progress is thinking that this isn’t a big deal since Castro and Rizzo aren’t around, rather than what I would have felt like if this happened a year ago, had I not already stopped paying attention to the team last September.
Team Overviews
Cubs
- wRC+: 88 (11th)
- UBR: 6.9 (2nd)
- UZR: 7.7 (6th)
- DRS: -12 (13th)
- SP FIP-: 95 (2nd)
- RP FIP-: 88 (4th)
- R+RBI: 1079 (11th)
Buccos
- wRC+: 107 (1st)
- UBR: 5.3 (3rd)
- UZR: -42.3 (15th)
- DRS: +33 (4th)
- SP FIP-: 109 (15th)
- RP FIP-: 104 (14th)
- R+RBI: 1213 (2nd)
Wow, the Pirates are a much different team than I expected. Obviously McCutchen is good but I would never have guessed that they would be leading the league in offense. Russell Martin, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, and Neil Walker have all posted wOBA north of .350. Their starter numbers look fine at first glance (team FIP of 3.91), my brain just hasn’t adjusted to how pitching dominated MLB has become lately. Aside from Melancon and Tony Watson (who has somehow won TEN GAMES as a reliever), their pen has not been the shutdown machine of years past either.
News, notes, vengeance pacts, injuries, etc.
Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the face last night by a pitch that got away from Brewers pitcher Mike Fiers. He was taken to the hospital and diagnosed with multiple facial fractures and dental damage, but luckily it sounds like no brain injury. I wonder if we’ll start seeing more players using the Jason Heyward style chin-flap on their helmets.
Three of the division races are pretty much wrapped up, with the O’s, Angels, and Nats all holding huge leads over their opponents. Meanwhile in the Race to the Top, the Rangers pretty much have a stranglehold on the top pick in next year’s draft due to their garbage fire of a season. It’s only fitting that the capper of it all is their manager resigning amid sexual assault rumors.
Via Mish via @Strange_signs: No cool dogs allowed
Tweet of the decade
Roger Goodell cancels tonight’s NFL game out of respect for 9/11: “Just saw the video of the towers fall for the first time. Heartbreaking.”
— Eric Michel (@ericmichel) September 11, 2014
Pitching Matchups
ERA, xFIP, projected FIP listed for each pitcher
Friday: Tsuyoshi Wada, LHP (2.95, 3.93, 4.58) vs Gerrit Cole, RHP (3.89, 3.51, 3.56), 6:05 PM CT
Cole’s only made 18 starts this year due to some injury problems, but when he’s been on the mound he’s been great. You pretty much know what you’re going to get from him: lots of 96 mph fastballs. He throws some sinkers and sliders too but that heat is his bread and butter.
Wada on the other hand has managed to post a sub-3 ERA despite barely hitting 90 on the radar gun. Most of his success is built on a .252 BABIP but if you’re inducing crappy contact (and lots of fly balls), that number isn’t too surprising. He faced Pittsburgh in his last start, in which he left in the fourth inning due to an injury.
Saturday: Felix Doubront, LHP (5.43, 4.78, 3.90) vs Jeff Locke, LHP (3.60, 3.77, 4.29), 6:05 PM CT
Doubront’s been better since coming to the Cubs, and is a classic buy low/good peripherals guy. He’ll be one of the roughly 500 back end rotation types the Cubs will have to choose between next year. He also faced the Pirates in his last start, giving up two runs in five innings. He hasn’t really been striking out batters at a clip you’d expect from his minor league numbers but his (not so great) walk rate is right in line.
Locke’s a ground ball machine, and he’s been around the Pirates for far less time than I thought. He made 30 starts last year and had big problems with walks, which is kind of surprising for a sinkerballer. He’s kept the ball in the strike zone this year to much better success, though a rising HR rate ate up a lot of the gains from reducing the walks. He’s coming off his best start of the year, striking out nine Phillies with no walks and one run.
Sunday: Jacob Turner, RHP (5.84, 3.88, 4.56) vs Edinson Volquez, ROY (3.36, 4.30, 4.30), 12:35 PM CT
The Cubs stole Turner from the Marlins, trading two non-prospects who were older than him to get him. That said I’m less than whelmed with Turner (really, all the Cubs starters this series). It’s hard to get excited about a guy with a career sub-6.0 K/9 that doesn’t double as a worm exterminator. He’s had more success getting ground balls this year (and some bad BABIP luck) but he isn’t a guy I’m really counting on. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him DFA’d this offseason.
By ERA this is Volquez’s best year by far since his breakout non-ROY season in 2008. His strikeout rate has dropped nearly a third since then, but he’s finally managed to cut down on the walks that have long been his biggest problem and is currently posting the best walk rate of his career. That’s not to say it’s a particularly good one, but going from god-awful to merely average is a huge step.