Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (55-47) at Milwaukee Brewers (54-50)

In Series Previews by berselius238 Comments

The Cubs kick off the first of three big intradivisional series with a three game set at Wrigley North. If the Cubs are going to pounce on the Brewers, these back-to-back weekend series would be the time to do it. The Brewers still have a negative run differential, and are reeling due to recent injuries to their starting rotation. Bob Minocqua was easily their best starting pitcher this year, and he’s expected to miss six weeks with an oblique strain. Just a day or two later Jhoulys Chacin also went down with an oblique injury, but given his whopping 0.1 WAR across 19 starts, that’s a slightly smaller blow. Still those innings have to come from somewhere, and aside from those two and Zach Davies the Brewers rotation was already a slapdash job.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Bryant (.405)
  • ISO: Contreras (.274)
  • HR: Baez (25)
  • R+RBI: Baez (139)
  • wRC+: Bryant (151)
  • BSR: Baez (2.2)
  • Defense: Baez (10.3)
  • SP K/9: Darvish (10.33)
  • SP BB/9: Cyle (1.91)
  • SP FIP: Hamels (3.59)
  • RP K/9: Kimbrel (11.81)
  • RP BB/9: Kintzler (1.90)
  • RP FIP: Ryan (3.41)
  • WAR: Bryant (4.2)

Beers

  • OBP: Yelich (.436)
  • ISO: Yelich (.372)
  • HR: Yelich (35)
  • R+RBI: Yelich (154)
  • wRC+: Yelich (182)
  • BSR: Yelich (4.4)
  • Defense: Grandal (12.4)
  • SP K/9: Freddy Peralta (11.61)
  • SP BB/9: Woodruff (2.22)
  • SP FIP: Woodruff (3.10)
  • RP K/9: Hader (16.85)
  • RP BB/9: Hader (2.36)
  • RP FIP: Hader (2.68)
  • WAR: Yelich (5.9)

Injuries, transactions, blood feuds, etc.

KB left Wednesday’s game after tweaking something in his knee, but all reports seem to be that it was pretty minor and he should be good to go for this series. Jon Lester was scrapped from his last start due to illness but is expected to start this weekend. Cole Hamels could be back next week, but won’t be back in this series.

The Cubs are expected to call up Ian Happ for this series, but no corresponding roster move has been announced. Considering the Cubs are carrying a billion relievers, that’s the likely move, but with the trade deadline coming up who knows what might be happening.

On the Brewers side, pretty much their whole injured list is pitchers. You could form a credible rotation from their hospital wing, assuming you had the power to make all of them suddenly healthy. Currently on the shelf are:

  • Brandon Woodruff / Bob Minocqua / Ken Sayner
  • Jimmy Nelson
  • Jhoulys Chacin
  • Brent Suter, the poor man’s Kyle Hendricks
  • Corbin Burns

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, Projected ERA listed for all starters

Friday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.89, 1.91, 3.41, 3.73) vs Gio Gonzalez, LHP (6.94, 2.83, 3.60, 4.33), 7:10 PM CT

Saturday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.83, 1.93, 3.87, 4.02) vs Chase Anderson, RHP (8.78, 3.04, 3.90, 4.23), 6:10 PM CT

Sunday: Jose Quintana, LHP (7.63, 2.65, 4.42, 3.89) vs Zach Davies, RHP (5.94, 2.85, 3.17, 4.38), 1:10 PM CT

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Comments

  6. andcounting

    To-night’s base ball squadron:

    Willson C
    KB3B
    Rizzo 1B
    Baez SS
    Heyward RF
    Happ LF
    Almora CF, Jr
    Bote 2B
    Cyle P

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  14. andcounting

    WaLi,

    I don’t really understand either. The only explanation I heard was Holland isn’t with the team yet. So maybe Holland replaced Collins on the 40-man roster but not yet on the 25?

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  18. Perkins

    Couple of thoughts:

    It’s a shame the HP umpire didn’t realize Thames struck out.
    Strop has no business in high leverage situations.

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  20. Smokestack Lightning

    Ah, the patented almost-get-out-the-jam-but-then-nah dick punch.

    Thanks, Strop. Another guy I will not miss when he’s no longer a Cub. (That list is getting longer and longer).

    Also, go fuck yourself, Houston.

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  23. Rizzo the Rat

    There was pretty much a 100% chance that Javy’s at-bat would end with him chasing a high fastball.

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  25. andcounting

    Just for fun I decided to go back through the Cubs schedule and see in how many of their road losses the opponent took the lead in their last at bat. I lost count, but it was a really high number and it wasn’t fun at all. So now it’s a really high number plus one.

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  27. andcounting

    dmick89,

    One thing that has been driving me crazy is Joe saying you’ve got to look at Strop’s body of work and not just how he’s pitched lately. I understand the premise to some degree—relievers can’t be judged by their last few pitches alone. But Joe seems to be unable to tell or unwilling to admit when a pitcher has just plain lost all command of what they’re doing on the mound. Strop has been in that place for quite some time, and Joe is allowing the rare good/lucky outing to obscure the absolute mess that has been Pedro Strop. For some reason he has tried to let Strop and Edwards figure out what’s wrong in the 8th and 9th innings.

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  28. Perkins

    andcounting,

    Not to mention that the loss of velocity and command has been a season-long trend for Strop. There’s an awful lot of recent evidence that something’s wrong.

    Joe had a much shorter leash with Rondon in 2016, so I’m wondering if he just likes Strop and it’s clouding his judgment.

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  29. dmick89

    Perkins,

    I think it’s that somehow Strop is among the Cubs best relievers so he’s given more chances. Also, in 2016 the bullpen’s worst relievers were as good as this team’s best (minus Kimbrel).

    I’m going to be pissed if the Cubs give up anything of value to improve this team. Yeah, they might be able to win this shitty division, but they aren’t beating any team in the playoffs. Not even one win.

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  30. Perkins

    dmick89:
    Perkins,

    I’m going to be pissed if the Cubs give up anything of value to improve this team. Yeah, they might be able to win this shitty division, but they aren’t beating any team in the playoffs. Not even one win.

    Based on Theo’s comments, it sounds like the Cubs don’t have payroll space for a significant addition. I guess the Rickettses have white supremacists to raise money for.

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  32. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2B Garcia
    C Contreras
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Baez
    RF Heyward
    CF Happ
    LF Schwarber
    P Lester

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  37. Author
    berselius

    (dying laughing), Pat and Ron are ripping the ump that called that a fair ball for being the same guy with the shitty strike zone last night.

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  45. Perkins

    Lester was only at 94 pitches and on cruise control. I don’t know why Maddon would trust any non-Kimbrel reliever with a two run lead.

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  46. Perkins

    Also fuck the Ricketts family for deciding this was the time to tighten the purse strings when it was plainly obvious for the entire offseason that the bullpen needed help.

    So glad I’m giving up my season tickets after this year. Those fucks can spend money on supporting white supremacists, but are apparently stretched thin when it comes to the baseball team.

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  65. Smokestack Lightning

    mobile dave:
    Fuck this team and the people who run it.

    I can’t disagree. And yet, I have misgivings. Because the people who run this team gave us this too:

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  66. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning,

    I’ll always love 2016, but that’s been a few years now. It’s not that I think the Cubs should win it all every year, but they should have spent more in the offseason and they shouldn’t have this mess on their hands just a few years after having what appeared to be one of the best young cores in the game. Now it’s just kind of a mess and the Cubs are one of those teams stuck between trying to get better or sell. That doesn’t speak too highly of this front office in my opinion. What they built up over a long time didn’t stay good for too long and the future looks like it’s going to suck for awhile. I think this front office has done some things well and some things quite poorly. 10-15 years ago this would have been one of the best two or three front offices in the game. These days it’s just middle of the road and that’s not good enough for a team like the Cubs.

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  67. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89,

    No real disagreement (other than your assessment of the future—as we have already seen, things can change in a hurry, for good or bad). I was speaking from emotion more than anything else.

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  68. andcounting

    At least there’s no reason to think anyone in the bullpen can get outs. I can stop complaining about Joe. (dying laughing)

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  69. andcounting

    I mean, they had the lead. Kimbrel is as good as they have. And rested. None of us really thought that was a bad thing.

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  70. Rizzo the Rat

    Perkins:
    Lester was only at 94 pitches and on cruise control. I don’t know why Maddon would trust any non-Kimbrel reliever with a two run lead.

    Lester said he was gassed. Asked out. Just getting over being sick. Was even coughing some in clubhouse.

    — Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) July 28, 2019

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  72. Smokestack Lightning

    andcounting:
    I mean, they had the lead. Kimbrel is as good as they have. And rested. None of us really thought that was a bad thing.

    No kidding. I was “Craig Kimbrel, plz” since the first week of April.

    Which illustrates another reason for above-mentioned the misgivings. More times than not, the FO has done what I’ve wanted them to do the last few years. It would seem I’m no better at their job than they are. (dying laughing)

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  73. mobile dave

    I mean, Kimberly could have been signed in February instead, which would have led to the rest of the pen being that much less burned out by now.

    More accurately, I should say fuck the people who own this team instead. I will go to my grave believing that the front office worked under strict orders not to sign anyone this offseason as a specific message to the MLBPA, and that the Rickettses are front and center in that whole mess. So fuck them on so many different levels I can’t even keep track.

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  74. Rizzo the Rat

    Anyway, I’ve said this before, but I think complaints about pulling a starting pitcher who is “cruising” are almost always misguided. The times through the order effect is real (i.e. hitters gain an advantage in a pitcher as the gain familiarity with him). The fact that a pitcher has had success up to that point is not a strong predictor of future success.

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  75. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I agree that pitchers get much worse the more times they see a hitter, but here’s the thing: we know the bullpen is going to blow the lead. That simple. Unless it’s an insurmountable lead, Cubs lose. The bullpen is complete shit and the Cubs would be better off forcing 8 innings out of their starter under any circumstances in which the game is close.

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  76. dmick89

    As far as the front office goes, they chose Descalso over La Stella and that’s cost them about 3 wins. Under no circumstances was Descalso a better option than La Stella. You couldn’t have expected what happened with La Stella, but he was better than Descalso.

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  77. dmick89

    If I’m the Cubs front office, I’m looking at what players I could trade while still giving the team a reasonable chance of reaching the postseason.

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  78. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    As far as the front office goes, they chose Descalso over La Stella and that’s cost them about 3 wins. Under no circumstances was Descalso a better option than La Stella. You couldn’t have expected what happened with La Stella, but he was better than Descalso.

    Eh. There’s plenty to flog this front office over the last few years, but imo that one is more shrug emoji than anything else. Veteran bench guys are similar to bullpen arms. You try to find the least bad player you can, and you try to ride the lightning and find players who might have figured something out in one respect or another. We’re talking about a player who is supposed to soak up 150-200 PAs. Descalso had been a 111 wRC+ hitter over 400+ PAs in 2017, had a fly ball lean in his batted ball profile, and a high hard hit rate. La Stella meanwhile had taken a sharp turn away from those things. He’d been a weakass groundball hitter in 2017. 86 wRC+. Whatever he figured out going into 2019 didn’t look like it was on its way after last season (and this year’s power explosion may be small-sample BS anyway; he was back to hitting groundballs again the last month he played; we won’t know what’s what with him for sure until he returns from injury).

    Don’t get me wrong, I was not thrilled with the Descalso signing. My preference would have been neither, tbh. But in a vacuum, it’s not crazy the Cubs picked him over La Stella. And if I’d been forced to choose between the two, I probably would have picked Descalso too.

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  79. Smokestack Lightning

    Make that 2018 on the Descalso 111 wRC+ and La Stella 86. I don’t know what year it was last year. (dying laughing)

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  80. Smokestack Lightning

    mobile dave: More accurately, I should say fuck the people who own this team instead. I will go to my grave believing that the front office worked under strict orders not to sign anyone this offseason as a specific message to the MLBPA, and that the Rickettses are front and center in that whole mess. So fuck them on so many different levels I can’t even keep track.

    Indeed. Let the FO spend on the bullpen this offseason, and this team is probably enjoying a 5+ game cushion in the division right now. Even with all the other uneven things going on.

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  81. andcounting

    Baseball sucks sometimes. That was last night. It sucked to be a Cubs fan last night because baseball at its best sucks sometimes. I don’t think last night was particularly embarrassing to the Cubs as an organization. It just sucked. Shit, impartially, the fact that Hiura’s parents were at the game, see him hit a game-tying homer that becomes a strikeout and then hit a for-real game-winning homer…that’s actually pretty awesome.

    The Cubs are owned by a family that is pretty much wrapped up in white nationalistic, anti-human racketeering. Unfortunately, MLB franchises are worth billions of dollars, which means billionaires tend to own them. In my experience, they’re all depraved criminals. But they own almost literally everything. I don’t know what to do with that. My Cubs fandom probably makes me witlessly subservient to it all. Rich people suck. The rest of us swallow.

    This front office? Yeah, World Series. Also, Morrow, Chatwood, Descalso, and Darvish. That’s so many millions of dollars that isn’t really being poured into wins. I don’t know what’s going on, but it doesn’t seem like the front office is operating at peak levels. That sucks too.

    Everything sucks, especially the Cubs. Go Cubs.

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  82. BVS

    Too bad Lester has a full no trade clause. He’s got one more year of control and an option.

    As much as I like him, he’d return some value.

    Anyone not named Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, or Contreras are tradeable. Not to blow up the whole team, but to do a reset.

    Of course, Darvish and Heyward are untradable with their contracts. So the remain part of the core. Darvish lately makes me feel undmickistic about his future. More than I feel about the Cubs making the playoffs this year.

    Strop’s hamstring is acting up, right? 😉 😉

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  83. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2b Garcia
    C Contreras
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Baez
    RF Heyward
    CF Happ
    LF Schwarber
    P Q

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  84. dmick89

    andcounting: Also, Morrow, Chatwood, Descalso, and Darvish. That’s so many millions of dollars that isn’t really being poured into wins. I don’t know what’s going on, but it doesn’t seem like the front office is operating at peak levels. That sucks too.

    And Heyward. I can still stomach the Heyward and Darvish deals as they made sense at the time, but the Chatwood deal was fucking stupid when it happened, looked dumber a couple months later and somehow looked considerably more stupid half a year after that.

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  85. dmick89

    BVS: Anyone not named Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, or Contreras are tradeable. Not to blow up the whole team, but to do a reset.

    I hate to be that guy, but I’m not opposed to floating one of those names at the deadline either. I’d actually offer Bryant a 5/150 extension, which he’ll decline and then I’d see what I could get for him. I would probably wait until the offseason because there’s only a few days left until the deadline at this point, but he could help rebuild the farm system in a hurry. If you get an MLB ready player in return, which you should, you might not even see much of a loss in 2020, especially since you’d be able to use free agency to address whatever your needs are.

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  98. Perkins

    The Cubs should have Schwarber hit several multi-run HR every game. I bet they’d win a lot of ballgames.

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  100. andcounting

    Perkins,

    It doesn’t hurt when they take several walks. I believe they’ve had three BBs come in to score. Crazy what effect baserunners can have.

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  106. Perkins

    I’m a lot more confident in Q’s ability to hold a four run lead than I am in the bullpen’s. Especially over 4 1/3 innings. Cubs lose.

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  118. andcounting

    Are there unwritten rules on challenging plays when you’re up by 6? Because they need to add a written addendum about single-digit leads being tenuous at best.

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  127. EnricoPallazzo

    BVS:
    Stroman –> Mets

    So not Brewers or Cardinals. Good.

    wait what? how the fuck are the mets buyers??? I assume this is a precursor to them dumping a bunch of guys or like a three-team deal? seems very odd…

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  131. Perkins

    BVS:
    dmick89,

    My guess is he will have to make a “donation” to some charity.He’ll also have to promise not to sing Centerfield on karaoke night.

    I bet he donates $69,420.

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  133. dmick89

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Apparently they want to contend in 2020 and beyond so this is a pretty smart move for them. I still think there’s an outside chance they could go ahead and flip Stroman in the next day or two, but I don’t think they will.

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  134. WaLi

    berselius,

    Last update I can find anywhere for him was that he threw a mound session a month ago with no issues.

    Does he have to be on the team some time in August to be eligible for the playoffs?

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  138. dmick89

    Zobrist hasn’t been removed from the 40-man roster and he’s getting ready to go out on rehab assignment. He’ll probably be back at the end of August or by September 1st. Anyone who is in the Cubs organization by as of August 31st is eligible for the postseason and both of those guys mentioned are. I wouldn’t count on anything from Morrow and the Cubs can just release him as far as I’m concerned.

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  139. WaLi

    dmick89: Zobrist hasn’t been removed from the 40-man roster

    Zobrist is on the restricted list and isn’t listed on the 40-man roster either on Baseball Reference or Cubs page. http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/roster/40-man/

    There are 44 people listed, 3 of which (Gravemen, Morrow, and Webster) are on 60-day IL so don’t count towards 40-man. I don’t know how the Cubs have 41 on the 40-man roster, but none of them listed is Zobrist.

    When Zobrist does get added back to the 40-man I assume Cubs will have to start paying him again and that someone else will have to be dropped (unless Cubs go to a 42-man 40-man roster)

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  140. dmick89

    Yeah, I’m not entirely sure how the restricted list works. I know it’s unpaid, but I also know that the usual method to remove someone from a 40-man doesn’t apply and he’s not a free agent when he’s ready to return.

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  141. andcounting

    I don’t know anyone who really expected Morrow to return, but the implosion that has been the Cub version of him is particularly frustrating in light of his role in shutting them down in the NLCS the year before they got him. I try not to think about it, but on off days I think about depressing Cubs realities. I can’t help it.

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  143. Perkins

    I’m in St Louis for business, and there’s a nontrivial chance I’m staying at the same hotel as the Cubs.

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  147. Perkins

    WaLi:
    Perkins,

    I’m sorry you are in boring St. Louis, but at least there is some baseball in town this week.

    Definitely hitting the Wednesday game and considering going tonight as well.

    But yeah, I’ve been traveling here for months. There’s… not a lot to do.

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  148. Author
    berselius

    Perkins,

    What about all the gastronomic delights? You could be out sampling different interpretations of St. Louis pizza every night!

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  149. WaLi

    berselius: You could be out sampling different interpretations of St. Louis pizza every night!

    There are so many varieties of cracker crust and provel cheese to be had! And don’t forget the fried toasted ravioli!

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  153. Perkins

    WaLi: There are so many varieties of cracker crust and provel cheese to be had! And don’t forget the fried toasted ravioli!

    Toasted ravioli is one of the most hilarious to me. Congratulations, St. Louis, you found a way to make a delicious thing more delicious by deep frying it. You’re truly a culinary visionary.

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  155. WaLi

    David Kaplan @thekapman
    The Cubs are recalling right handed pitcher Duane Underwood from Class AAA Iowa. Pedro Strop is headed to the injured list.

    Perkins what did you do

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  162. WaLi

    Joe: Who says a person with sub .300 OBP can’t leadoff?

    Cubs Lineup:

    Robel Garcia 2B
    Jason Heyward RF
    Kris Bryant 3B
    Anthony Rizzo 1B
    Javy Báez SS
    Victor Caratini C
    Kyle Schwarber LF
    Ian Happ CF
    Yu Darvish P

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  169. BVS

    I’m thinking the Cubs should trade for Mike Minor, put him in the bullpen for the rest of the season, since he seems to tiring as a starter, then back to rotation after Hamels leaves.

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  176. WaLi

    You would think the Cubs would win a game where the pitchers have an ∞:1 K:BB ratio (0 walks and 11 strikeouts), but then again Cubs had Robel fucking Garcia leading off and striking out 4 times.

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  179. JKV

    Putting Robel Garcia at the top is the clearest indication yet that Joe doesn’t use logic or data in creating his lineups.

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  186. andcounting

    No Almora in the lineup, so I’m assuming Trout is on his way to meet his new team in St. Louis:

    Heyward
    Contreras
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Baez
    Happ
    Schwarber
    Bote
    Cyle

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  192. Nick Castellanos

    Hey guys – what’s up? I’ve been told that this is the most discredited Cubs blog to follow while I’m here. How is that possible when other blogs complain about Wrigley Field’s sandwich policy, and this blog one talks about Pizza Hut MILFs, fantasy football, and – once every year or so – smegma?

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  193. andcounting

    Nick Castellanos,

    Nick, you’ve got to go the extra mile when you want to become as discredited as we have. That includes resisting the urge to create a new post every time the Cubs make a move. A discredited blog just publishes that kind of update as a comment on the series preview post from the previous series. We’re still one bat short of a good lineup, and that’s how you stay discredited IMAHO.

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  194. dmick89

    andcounting: We’re still one bat short of a good lineup, and that’s how you stay discredited IMAHO.

    We may be one bat short of a good lineup, but we make up for it by being able to go toe to toe with the Cubs bullpen.

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  195. Carl Edwards, Jr

    See ya later jabronis.

    Thanks for the support.

    Come see me next winter for chicken and waffles, grits, and collards.

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  206. Author
    berselius

    Carl Edwards, Jr,

    Sad to see Edwards go, as he was a nontrivial part of a lot of fun cubs teams. But this was definitely the best move for both sides. Hopefully a change of scenery does him good.

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  212. Smokestack Lightning

    Carl Edwards, Jr:
    See ya later jabronis.

    Thanks for the support.

    Come see me next winter for chicken and waffles, grits, and collards.

    Best wishes. And thanks for getting a couple of outs in the 10th in a game in Cleveland not too long ago…

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  214. Smokestack Lightning

    I do not like this version of Herr Goldschmidt who is suddenly good again. I like the one who mostly hit groundballs and struck out for a good part of the year.

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  221. Rizzo the Rat

    Bryant’s offensive strategy of hitting the ball right to Cardinal infielders is working beautifully.

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  222. andcounting

    Baez with some really bad luck tonight. Actually, the last two nights the Cubs have hit the ball well with runners on to no avail.

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  236. Smokestack Lightning

    So… we happy with how the Cubs did the trade deadline? I’m too lazy to check whether or not the Cubs passed the Phil Rogers’ +/- test, but I feel confident saying the FO brought in baseball players to replace other baseball players, and that might be a good thing.

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  237. andcounting

    Smokestack Lightning,

    Castellanos seems like Daniel Murphy lite. I don’t expect anyone to make a huge difference but I didn’t expect anyone the Cubs gave up to help win anytime soon. Mostly disappointed and frustrated by the rich people who run the team

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