Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (3-7) at Miami Marlins (4-6)

In Series Previews by berselius111 Comments

The Cubs stumble into their next opponent having lost all three series so far this year. They'll face the Marlins and their hideous HR structure. Thank DeRosa that this series is being played in Miami and not Chicago – the media firestorm with Ozzie's return after suspension from his recent comments and the mere existence of Carlos Zambrano would be fanned even further by the Chicago papers if the teams were playing at Wrigley. Z has been doing Z things with the Marlins, walking a bunch of batters and racking up big pitch counts. He was in position to "win" both of the games he started, but fellow newcomer Heath Bell blew the save each time.

Team Matchups

I'll switch to this season's stats. NL Rank in parens.

  Cubs Marlins
wOBA .285 (13th) .293 (10th)
Baserunning 0.8 (5th) -1.1 (13th)
UZR 3.9 (3rd) -5.8 (15th)
DRS 2 (4th) -13 (16th)
SP FIP 3.47 (8th) 3.71 (10th)
RP FIP 4.56 (15th) 4.30 (14th)

Lineups

Updated ZiPS projections for all players

Cubs wOBA wOBA Marlins
RF David DeJesus .330 .354 SS Jose Reyes
2B Darwin Barney .291 .308 CF Emilio Bonifacio
SS Starlin Castro .338 .358 3B Hanley Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano .318 .377 RF Giancarlo Stanton
3B Ian Stewart .313 .349 LF Logan Morrison
1B Bryan LaHair .343 .337 1B Gaby Sanchez
C Geovany Soto .328 .318 2B Omar Infante
CF Marlon Byrd .314 .304 C John Buck

The Marlins have some thunder in that lineup. Jose Reyes has gotten off to a bad start to the season, posting a .238/.289/.357 line. I'm sure Marlins fans are clamoring for him to be replaced by some replacement level SS in the minors (see: Geovany Soto's slow start).

Injuries

Stanton has a sore left knee and is day to day. Former fireballing Cubs bullpen prospect Jose Ceda had Tommy John surgery last week. No word on whether the Marlins are planning on reopening the Kevin Gregg compensation.

Pitching Matchups

ERA, FIP, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP in parens

Tuesday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.88, 2.95, 3.11, 3.94) vs Josh Johnson, RHP (8.38, 2.78, 3.50, 2.69), 6:05 PM CT

Dempster followed up his stellar ten strikeout opening day with a merely very good outing against the Brewers. Dempster struck out five and walked three in 6 2/3 and took the loss in a game where the Cubs couldn't get much going offensively. He's the beneficiary of a .176 BABIP on the season #funwithsmallsamplesizes

On the flip side, Johnson's poor numbers seem to be entirely due to batted ball luck (.488 BABIP). He hasn't given up any homers (helped in part by their humongous park), but hitters are hitting him hard so far too. He's given up 15 line drives in his two starts, and his strikeout rates are way down. He's coming off of surgery last year so that could be playing a major role.

Wednesday: Matt Garza, RHP (1.23, 2.48, 2.63, 3.34) vs Mark Buehrle, LHP (3.65, 4.59, 4.16, 3.78), 6:05 PM CT

If Steve Trachsel was the Human Rain Delay, what does that make Mark Buehrle? He's scuffled a bit with his new team and has had some trouble with home runs but he's mostly been as advertised.

Garza blew his chance at a shutout his last time out by throwing the 27th out 15 rows into the stands. It's always so strange to see just how awful he is at fielding the position.

Thursday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.95, 2.15, 2.72, 4.18) vs Matt Cain and Felix Pie, RHP (3.46, 4.35, 3.73, 3.45), 11:40 AM CT

Samardzija's second start wasn't as impressive as his first. His fastballs' velocity was down about 3 mph from the 97 or so in his first start, and he pitched well enough before running into trouble in the fifth. The Cardinals hit five line drives off of him, scoring 5 runs. Luckily the Cubs offense had already posted nine of their own at that point.

Nolasco's best start was his first one, in Cincy. He went 8 innings and killed a ton of grass in their infield. He labored in his second start against the Astros, needing 90 pitches to go five innings against their woeful offense.

Prediction

Cubs lose yet another series.

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Comments

  2. Rice Cube

    Garza blew his chance at a shutout his last time out by throwing the 27th out 15 rows into the stands. It’s always so strange to see just how awful he is at fielding the position.

    That was very strange to see in person. At least some fan got a souvenir, but I thought that would have been the perfect time to throw the ball back on the field. I don’t want your error! (dying laughing)

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  6. Aisle424

    WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:

    I don’t, but this was the announced pricing for bleachers for 2012:

    $3,055 for season ticket holders, or $3,196 if you purchased a single bleacher ticket to all 81 games

    Thanks. I was looking for the per game face value of each of the pricing tiers (bronze, silver, gold, platinum, marquee). But that helps as I think I’ve figured out the prices through deduction.

    Rice Cube wrote:

    My friend and his family have a bleachers season ticket package. I’ll ask him for you.

    Thanks, RC.

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  7. WaLi

    http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/20/637547/building-a-cubs-champion-i

    With that, unload him to the Giants. D-Lee is a native of northern California (Sacramento); the Giants seem to like getting hold of older players who still have something left in the tank; and they can afford him. In return, I’d like Matt Cain and lefty reliever Alex Hinshaw. Don’t slot Cain into the rotation yet, though; I’ll explain why later.

    13 position players would begin the season, just as last year. You’ll note Felix Pie is not listed there, and you’re about to find out why.

    And that leaves the fifth spot open. But you’re saying, having read my epic saga so far, “Wait! Didn’t you trade for Matt Cain 17 paragraphs and a blockquote ago?”

    Yes, I did, but Cain isn’t going to pitch a single inning in a Cub uniform. Instead, he’s headed to the Marlins, along with Felix Pie (told ya I’d get to that!) in exchange for Ricky Nolasco.

    Al – Master Storyteller and GM

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  15. Aisle424

    Rice Cube wrote:

    He says it was the nights and weekends package, two seats, including Opening Day and Memorial Day and cost around $4200 to $4800 (doesn’t remember exactly). 58 total games.

    Thanks! Can you find out what the individual face value printed on the tickets are for the various price levels? WGC verified my assumptions for what single game customers are paying (base-level), but I don’t know where the season ticket people are saving their money. The $141 dollar difference doesn’t break out evenly across pricing tiers.

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  21. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rice Cube:
    It will probably be consumed by three rednecks who made a Busch Light-fueled drive from West Virginia to catch a ballgame. America!

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  22. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    Aisle424 wrote:

    Thanks. I was looking for the per game face value of each of the pricing tiers (bronze, silver, gold, platinum, marquee). But that helps as I think I’ve figured out the prices through deduction.

    I don’t see that breakdown, but the announcement that I quoted from said that season ticket holders would save on-average $1-2 per ticket versus the face value. So, you can get a rough estimate.

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  25. Rice Cube

    Izzy (Trop)

    Why isn’t clevenger starting? soto is horrific he is not rookie of the year anymore!

    Bruce Levine (1:03 PM)

    Soto is the guy with the experience, and he’s also a guy that can generate between 17-25 homers. After a week and a half, you just don’t kick your starting catcher to the curb. Also, remeber the scouts don’t have a book on Clevenger yet.

    Bruce spits on your small sample size!

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  26. bubblesdachimp

    Chicago Cubs ‏ @Cubs Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    #Cubs lineup @Marlins 4/17: DeJesus RF, Barney 2B, Castro SS, Soriano LF, Stewart 3B, Clevenger C, LaHair 1B, Byrd CF, Dempster P

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  29. Mercurial Outfielder

    It’s like he forgot to put LaHair in there and was just like “Hey, 7th is open!”

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  35. bubblesdachimp

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    Such a lazy comparison. So lazy. He ran a sub 4.5 40.. Thatis not slow.. He can actually catch. And he did it against the best defenses in the world.

    Edit: it wouldnt be for the first round so i cant see myself getting too upset with using a second rounder on him

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  36. Mercurial Outfielder

    I’d really like to see the Bears try and trade up for Floyd, but it sounds like they’re going DE with their first pick. Your boy Ingram probably won’t fall to them, though. Mercilus, Upshaw or Coples probably the best bets.

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  38. bubblesdachimp

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    I really like this idea. However it would cost us a second to do this.. I would maybe hope that we can trade a second next year for a higher first this year…

    To get Michael i think we would need to get up to 11.

    (I think he is the best WR in the draft)

    Also I think one of my boys goes to Jacksonville regardless (Gilmore or Ingram) i think ourtside chance Gilmore is available at 19 no chance ingram is

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  39. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    It’s not lazy. It’s entirely apt. Until the combine Jeffery was fat, and he’s only had one solid college season (and in that respect he has a much, much worse college resumé than Williams had, and he’s played one more season than Williams did). He has excellent hands and a long frame that makes him a good red zone target, but almost all the scouting reports I’ve read seem to agree he’s a shitty route-runner who used his size to get to balls, but never really got separation.

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  42. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    Yeah, there’s no chance they do it, mainly because this roster needs a lot of help and the Bears can’t afford to lose picks. Given the other moves in the offseason, I’m really hoping the Bears go OL/DL, LB, OL/DL, LB in the first three rounds, and then start looking at DB’s in the later rounds.

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  43. Rice Cube

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I’m pretty sure the NHL has a “flopping” penalty now (dying laughing) Obviously it wasn’t used in that game, but I guess goalie interference takes precedence. I definitely don’t think the hit was intentional, but Shaw should have tried harder to stay out of the goalie’s way; no good could have come from him getting that close to the goalie because >90% of the time, the goalie will get the call.

    The suspension is bullshit though. The major penalty and the game misconduct was more than enough. I know some people were arguing that it should have been a minor at best, but I think if you get that close to a goaltender you’re just asking for trouble.

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  44. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rice Cube:

    There’s a penalty in footy, too. Yellow card. Repeat offenders get one-match bans. But now that the NHL has given teams an incentive to take dives in the playoffs, I think we have not seen the last of this crap.

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  49. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    I’m not saying he’s slow. There’s a difference between being slow and not being able to get separation Jeffery’s straight-line speed is fine. But across the board the scouts say his burst is below-average, which allows him to get jammed on the line so he never gets up to speed or into his route, thus rendering him incapable of gaining separation. I don’t have any confidence in him. He’s got some nice tools, but his negatives are serious.

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  51. WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:
    Such bullshit that Shaw got a suspension let alone a major. If Smith was hurt, he should have left the ice. This same bullshit happened to Keith (granted he really should have got a suspension). He got 5 games though right at the end of the season and was a first time offender.

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  54. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ SkipVB:
    I’ve never been able to find video of it online, but that throw to nail Harold Reynolds at home that Jackson threw from deep in the gap in the Kingdome is the single greatest throw I have ever seen.

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  55. SkipVB

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    three rednecks who made a Busch Light-fueled drive from West Virginia to catch a mess of trout.

    Context:
    I used to live in WV and once drove to Baltimore to see the Cubs in Interleague play. Night game of course, there and back in one day. I invited my friends from WV to go along and got variations of these responses:
    –What’s baseball?
    –Wha’d’eye wanna go to Baltimore when i c’n go see the Stillers in September?
    –The Majors are the ‘eers and the Stillers, not the Orioles. (Well, OK, that guy had a point, sorta.)
    –I thought the Pittsburgh had a baseball team. Did they move?

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  57. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    Yeah. Danny Wuerrffel agrees. Spare the SEC crap. He’s a big WR with a bad body and no burst who runs bad routes, with good hands and a good vertical. So his ceiling is Marques Colston. And his floor is 90% of the WR that get drafted because they are big and run good 40s without their pads on.

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  59. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ SkipVB:
    I think LF was somewhere around 324 feet to straightaway LF in the old Kingdome then, so he probably threw that ball about 320 feet, on the fly, with pinpoint accuracy. Insane.

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  63. bubblesdachimp

    Brett Taylor ‏ @BleacherNation Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    RT @PWSullivan Z is surprised I still get paid without having him to write about.

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  65. SkipVB

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    That video also demonstrates how much better the camera shots and image quality of today’s broadcasts are. Had it have been 2009 and not 1989, we’d have had the entire trajectory of the throw on camera.

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  72. SkipVB

    @ Berselius:
    Yeah, you’re probably right, but they drive big SUVs and are only now beginning to feel the cost of higher gas prices, though they’ve been complaining about them for months. The exurb commutariat doesn’t drink Busch Light.

    But hey, I couldn’t pass up the chance to dig my former neighbors a bit, even if at MO’s expense.

    BTW, Camden Yards can’t hold a candle, or even an old, cracked, bike-pedal reflector to PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

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  98. Akabari

    Where do you guys go for fantasy research? I just got offered a trade but I feel like I must be getting raped because it sounds too good (dying laughing)

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  101. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Akabari:
    I haven’t played in a few years, so my old haunts are probably out of date. I always like Fangraphs. What’s the trade?

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  102. Akabari

    I give Evan Longoria and Justin Upton and I get Drew Stubbs, Roy Halladay and David Wright
    And my pitching is godawful right now

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  104. Suburban kid

    As long as we’re discussing fake baseball, which two guys out the following bums would you pick to have as your Utility player and lone bench hitter in a deep league using conventional stats: Adam LaRoche, Angel Pagan, Omar Infante, Ryan Roberts, Zack Cozart, Logan Morrison, Alex Rios, Chase Headley, AJ Pierzynski.

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  106. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Akabari:
    Depends on how the league is scored. you’re giving up a lot of power, SB, and OBP for a lot of outs and a lot of pitching points. Personally, I wouldn’t do it.

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  109. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Suburban kid:
    Stanton’s got a balky leg, and at the very least will need regular time off for a while, plus Ozzie likes to rotate OF, so he’ll get his AB.

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