The Cubs start a ten game road trip with a visit to Pac Bell Park (or whatever the hell they're calling it these days). At least this series, unlike most west coast series, will only have one super late game (tonight's). Unfortunately the Cubs will miss Tim Lincecum, who seems to have transformed into a lesser pitcher. Maybe Jeff Samardzija secretly did a hair transplant with him in the offseason, Face/Off style.
Team Overviews
NL Ranks in parens
| Cubs | Giants | |
| wOBA | .304 (14th) | .306 (12th) |
| BSR | 4.1 (1st) | 2.1 (6th) |
| UZR | 9.9 (5th) | -7.7 (12th) |
| DRS | 3 (5th) | -12 (9th) |
| SP FIP | 4.26 (14th) | 3.66 (7th) |
| RP FIP | 4.54 (16th) | 3.07 (1st) |
N.b.: the Rockies are a whopping -52 runs below average on defense this year by DRS. Yowza.
I guess I should take back what I said about this team at least having good starting pitching compared to the 2006 team. Though a lot of that damage to the Cubs standing happened during the roughly 231 HRs that were hit in the Padres series, where the wind was howling out every game.
Position Players
Melky Cabrera is having a huge year at the plate, posting a .373/.417/.550 line. He's getting just a little help from a .413 BABIP, but at least he's hitting for power beyond any grounders with eyes. Still, he's Melky Cabrera. I laughed the other day when I read an article discussing the new free agent compensation rules that suggested he might get ~$15m a year. This is a guy with only 9 career WAR over 6 seasons and change. I can't wait until the Royals offer him that contract (dying laughing). Aside from Cabrera, the other offensive leaders on the Giants include OF Gregor Blanco (5.8 wRAA), former Cub Angel Pagan (7.6 wRAA), Buster Posey (6.0 wRAA), and the injured Kung-Fu Panda (6.2 wRAA). Those guys look like a pretty good core to the offense, but remember that their team wOBA is .306. Everyone else in the lineup has been bad terrible – those five players are the only ones who have posted above average offensive production. The worst offender are middle infielders Brandon Crawford and Manny Burriss, who have posted -17.8 wRAA between them. Ryan Theriot (Ryan Theriot!) and his -6.8 wRAA is the current designated offensive black hole at 2b.
Defensively Blanco and Posey are pretty good, while Pagan, Theriot, and Cabrera have the biggest negatives. Pagan, Burriss, and Blanco all have double digit steals, while noted speedster Ryan Theriot has zero steals to one CS, and actually has a (barely) non-negative BSR number.
Injuries
The Giants are missing three key contributers. 3B Pablo Sandoval is out with a broken hand and could be back in a few weeks. 2B Freddy Sanchez had shoulder surgery in March and having trouble throwing. There's no timetable for his return, and Bochy is already suggesting the possibility he might be out all year. Brian Wilson's Beard's wearer had TJS in April and is donezo for the year.
Castillo and Soto are still out for the Cubs, and I haven't heard news on either of them lately. Castillo's injury was supposed to only put him out for a week, and he can be activated later this week. Soto is out for another 2 weeks, at least. Soriano is still having trouble with his leg but he's still playing in every game.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP listed for each pitcher
Friday: Paul Maholm, LHP (4.62, 5.56, 4.67, 4.33) vs Madison Bumgarner, LHP (3.14, 3.67, 3.73, 3.26), 9:15 PM CT
Maholm had a tough time finding the zone in his last start against the hapless Pirates offense. It also marked the first time in over a month that he failed to get double digit grounders in a start. For the most part his problem this year has been with home runs, so pitching in the Giants spacious park should be a nice break for him.
Bumgarner had a monster year in 2011, which was his first full season. He posted a 2.67 FIP (3.10 xFIP) and struck out 191 batters. Not too shabby. His strikeout rate has regressed and then some to 6.41 K/9, but he's still doling out remarkably few free passes and has been inducing plenty of grounders. He's been knocked around a bit in his last four starts, giving up 17 runs.
Saturday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.22, 4.32, 3.70, 3.66) vs Ricky Nolasco and Felix Pie, RHP (2.79, 2.94, 3.59, 3.25), 6:15 PM CT (FOX)
Giving up five homers in his last two starts didn't do Garza's FIP any favors, and as the 13 runs didn't help his ERA either. I thought his velocity had been down the past few starts, but according to the pfx data on fangraphs it's only down maybe 1 mph from the start of the year.
Cain picked up right where he left off last year, and is striking out even more batters (and walking less) than last season. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, but he's always done a great job at suppressing HRs (playing in so many NL west park helps too).
Sunday: Travis Wood, LHP (5.94, 7.83, 4.51, 4.21) vs Barry Zito, LOL (3.41, 4.60, 5.21, 4.59), 3:05 PM CT
Zito has managed to produce meh numbers instead of terrible this year, but it looks like most of it is a factor of luck and sequencing. Zito is a very hittable fly ball pitcher and he's had luck with balls in play and out of play this season. A start in which he doesn't give up a HR is a notable start.
Speaking of home runs, Travis Wood pitches were flying out of Wrigley earlier this week. He gave up four homers to the Padres offense on a day where the wind was howling out. Hopefully we see the Travis Wood that looked pretty good in Houston instead of that version.
Monday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.09, 3.00, 3.16, 4.09) vs Ryan Vogelsong, RHP (2.36, 3.75, 4.48, 4.10), 2:45 PM CT
I forgot all about Vogelsong when we were discussing how unusual Samardzija's transformation was. Vogelsong was also a high potential pitcher who sucked for years in both the minors and in the majors with the Pirates, then suddenly turned it around and had huge season (and at the age of 34, no less!). He's apparently pitched especially well from the stretch, if his 80+ LOB% post-transformation is to be believed. The biggest part of his transformation last year was a drop in his walk rate from the not so good 4+ per nine earlier in his career to the much more palatable 3 per nine. He's walking batters more in line with his career numbers this year, though.
Samardzija's transformation has been a little different, because aside from throwing strikes he's also striking out a lot more batters. He was the only Cubs starter to throw a good game against the Mighty Padres, pitching into the 8th inning before being pulled. He was efficient for most of the game, for the first 5-6 innings he was only averaging 10 pitches per inning.
Comments
Well played.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Tonight’s….interesting….lineup vs LHP Bumgarner
CF Campana ———->Cubs win
SS Castro
3B Mather
LF Adolfo
RF Reedz
1B Baker
2B Barney
C Clevenger ———> Cubs win x2
P Maholm
BerseliusQuote Reply
That’s 8 no-hit, 5-walk, 120-pitch innings for Johan.
ACTQuote Reply
No-hitter through 8. 120+ pitches.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Where’s MGL to tell us not to get excited? I mean, he’s walked 5 batters; that’s much less impressive than a 2-hit, no walk game.
ACTQuote Reply
Seems a bit unwise to let him keep going but maybe they just watch his pitch count more closely in the next one.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
He does have seven strikeouts so it’s not all luck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
MGL:
That’s not that much cheese
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Not to mention he got a gift “foul ball” on a ball that left a fucking divot on the foul line.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Hey GBTS–this is for you, since you seem to be paying the most attn to fantasy scenarios (and no one will read comments on the last thread now).
What do you think about trading Furcal straight up for Tommy Hanson in a weekly Head to Head fantasy league? I have Asdrubal Cabrera at SS so Furcal is excess. The trade partner also has Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Beachy, Morrow, and Johan Santana. I originally offered Furcal for Johnson since Tulo went on the DL for him.
SkipVBQuote Reply
Congrats to Santana. 134 pitches though…
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
I’d probably do it. I don’t really trust Furcal to play the whole season, and if you don’t really need him then you might as well turn him into something else. I know Hanson isn’t exactly a model of durability but I’ve always liked him.
GBTSQuote Reply
Santana barely touched 90 all day.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Doing his Maddux imitation
SkipVBQuote Reply
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Obviously Ben Badler hasn’t looked at Campana’s +/- or Clevenger’s stats. (dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
SkipVB is excited! I get to watch the Cubs live on TV for the first time tonight. Previously my only viewing was a pixelated Pinetar link (I assume the pixels were due to my lousy internet connection).
First impression. Soriano doesn’t look as slender as I remember.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Not tonight. Fat Tony is a lefty, and Steve Clevage is also a lefty. Why are they returing against Lefty Madison Bumgardener?
Why are they in the lineup suddenly on the one day right handers are more useful?
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
I’m not as fantasy baseball-y as I used to be, but I’d make that trade in a heartbeat. Furcal is not good.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Well, at least the Cubs won’t be no-hit.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Last pitch of the no-hitter:
ACTQuote Reply
Why did Starlin stop dead in his tracks before he reached second on that steal attempt?
ACTQuote Reply
Baltimore 6 game losing streak —–> Fantasy over
@ ACT:
I’m still wondering about that too.
SkipVBQuote Reply
Best I can tell, he had a sudden bout of amnesia and forgot where he was.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He’s certainly due for some regression, and I’m sure he’ll find himself on the DL at some point. His ZIPS for the rest of the season isn’t terrible though.
GBTSQuote Reply
Maholm’s throw to Barney might be his best throw so far.
@ SkipVB:
Less excited now. 🙁
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
He’s the number 1 SS in our H2H league this year. Which is surprising. I’m happy to trade him and sell high, but my hesitation was over how inconsistent Hanson has been and if his shoulder will hold out.
SkipVBQuote Reply
I missed most of the game. I see Maholm gave up a double to Theriot and that he is no longer in the game. I can only assume Sveum put him down. Hope it was a clean shot to the brainpan.
joshQuote Reply
Not sure if posted, but this was nice to see:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21941259&topic_id=28033182&c_id=mlb
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That’s awesome. No-hitters are exciting, especially that last inning.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Except for MB (dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
No complete game for Bumgarner. Obligatory comeback.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Figures.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ah the traditional 9th inning comeback. Good times.
joshQuote Reply
Barney’s on deck. Could it be?
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ josh:
What does the Hope Monster say about this?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is the weirdest fucking team I’ve ever seen. What is up with their 9th innings? They’re going to get some kind of record in futile comebacks.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
This is the Hope Monster’s main mode of messing with us this year.
joshQuote Reply
Nice baserunning by Stewart.
By that, I meant the opposite.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I guess you don’t want to make an out at 3B if the pitcher actually fielded it well and the SS covered 3B, but I felt like he should’ve went.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hopefully this is not a bunt situation.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m just listening, but Pat and Keith both thought he should have gone.
joshQuote Reply
Time for the traditional game-ending double play.
joshQuote Reply
Another futile comeback. This is like the inverse of 2008.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
ALMOST.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
On TV they said the Cubs had scored more runs in the 9th than any other inning (37 I think) and outscored opponents by something like 37-17. Too bad the comebacks have to be with 5 run deficits all the time.
SkipVBQuote Reply
I think the Giants are one of the few teams that still haven’t been shut out all season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Vitters homered AND walked today
DoogolasQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
trying to get the last post of the thread in again? (dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Is it that obvious?
Actually, I just posted a random, slightly amusing picture for the hell of it, but it’s not displaying.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Must have been a hot linked image or something.
mb21Quote Reply
Fun no-hitter facts now that the Mets finally have their first:
San Diego still doesn’t have one (whew, glad we played them already this week). 43 years and counting.
The Mets went 8019 games without one, but that didn’t beat the streak of 8945 games by the Phillies from 1906-1964.
All current MLB parks that have been around at least 10 years have had two or more no-hitters thrown in them with the exception of Camden Yards and the Rockies’ park, with one each–by Hideo Nomo for the visiting team (Red Sox, Dodgers). Those were Nomo’s only two no hitters.
Family is away for the weekend. Can you tell?
SkipVBQuote Reply
So it sounds like Santana got a gift foul call last night and shouldn’t have had a no-hitter. Anyone see it?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
There’s a replay on MLB.com and I saw it a couple times. It hooked around the 3B bag and hit chalk. I’m pretty sure that makes it a fair ball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Why not just watch it yourself? http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21935393&c_id=mlb
ACTQuote Reply
Nice blog from Joe Poz:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/06/no-mo-no-no-nos-mets-edition.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Don’t suggest what he might do.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Jorge Soler=====> FA
Go Cubs Go
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
.
.
.
.
Who?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ ACT:
@ mb21:
yes, it was totally a gift call.
5 walks and 134 pitches. My guess is that by the end of the season this no-hitter won’t be one of the top 5 most dominant pitching performances. Maybe it isn’t now, but I don’t know where you get that stat. I rely on MB for that! (dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
Dierkes says the spending restrictions from the new CBA don’t kick in until July 2, so the Cubs aren’t handicapped by any rules in their pursuit of Soler.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21935599&topic_id=17807232
This is why there hasn’t been a no-hitter at Wrigley in 40 years.
GBTSQuote Reply
I want to get the MLEs on Soler, but I can’t find stats for him anywhere.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
http://www.findstatshere.com/jorgesoler.html
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
His game score was only 4 points higher than his last game (which was also a complete game shutout, but without any walks).
ACTQuote Reply
Santana’s game score was 90, which would give him the sixth-best game score of the year: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/topperformers/_/type/pitching
ACTQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
The only MLE I know about with regards to Soler is this one: stay the fuck away! Let some other team make that mistake. The Cubs already blew money on one guy who played the equivalent of A ball last season. I wouldn’t even give Soler one-third of the money the Cubs gave that guy. That guy has an ERA over 7, FIP over 5.5 and a sucK rate of just 5 per 9. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa650876&position=P
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
But Soler is much younger and much more well-regarded. KG or KLaw (IIRC) said he has top-10 talent. Hell, he can’t be worse than Reggie Golden. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Soler has yet to play professional baseball. Concepcion is slowly getting better :
Concepcion in April: (0-2, 19.36 ERA in 2 starts)
Concepcion in May: (1-2, 4.73 ERA in 6 starts)
He’s been the victim of errors, but Concepcion threw a May 15th 6-inning shutout and has 3 starts in May where he has allowed <2 ER and gone 4+ innings. It was very, very stupid for Thepstien to try him out as a Starter at such a high level when he only has two working pitches. The guy should not have been starting in full-season until the quirks were worked out in his changeup.
I know you are looking at peripherals but I’m having trouble calling Geraldo Concepcion a bust yet. I think he’s been the victim of some bad decisions by Peioria’s infield and by Thepstien. I still think he’ll be a quality LOOGY at the ML level someday.
Stats of Said Geraldo
tl;dr: He should have spent some time in Boise first.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Hooray! I finally get a Cubs game on FOX!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
The money matters less than the structure of the contract. I don’t think this raw “kid” should have to be in the majors in 4 years or take up a 40-man roster spot. I do think 30+ Million is way too much, but I’m more worried about the spot, or losing him after his first season.
Secondly, Thepstien is giving up an extra year of contract by starting Concepcion full season. Do you really think they’re going to let Soler start in short-season or rookie ball?
PezcoreQuote Reply
Mark Prior ———> AAA http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=7998792
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
He will be starting soon if the back three of the Saawx rotation continue to suck.
PezcoreQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
Concepcion and Cespedes both got MLB deals, so I’d expect the same for Soler. I hope the Cubs start him low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him thrown straight into AA.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I enjoyed reading this recently
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
That looks like the unholy love child of Fozzie Bear and Rowlf the Dog.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
If they weren’t willing to do it with Concepcion, there is no way they’ll do it with Soler, even though in theory he should be more raw than Concepcion is.
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
We need to make that the Rally Bear or something.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/05/superior_court_judge_says_nazi.html
(dying laughing) Yeah, that might help.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
They will have to bring back JUlio Zuleta to wake up the bats, because that thing will make them faint from sheer terror.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
That is truly terrifying.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Well you’re gunna be seeing a lot of it.
GBTSQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
He’s not even a month younger. Concepcion was born 2-1-92 and Soler was born 2-25-92. At least Concepcion played professional ball. Soler never has. I said when the rumors first started that I wouldn’t give either of them a million bucks and the idea of either of them getting MLB contracts is laughable. They should just give me one. It will prove to be as worthy as giving either of them one.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
For some reason I thought Soler was only 18 or 19 and Concepcion was 23 or 24. So much for my memory. (dying laughing) I still don’t mind the Cubs tossing some money around the last year they have the chance to do it.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
We could break it down a lot of ways to make it look better than it is, but he’s been terrible so far. He’s even been worse than I expected him to be. I was expected 4.5ish FIP in the low minors. He’s walking more than he strikes out. Even Koyie Hill could go 3-3 against him.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’d much rather they throw that $30 million at Josh Hamilton, Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke. I’d rather they throw it at Ryan Theriot, Koyie HIll, John Grabow and Neifi Perez too.
If you can get Soler for $5 million or less, fine. Go for it. It’s silly, but it’s not ridiculous.
mb21Quote Reply
Is it possible the Cubs enter the bidding just to drive up the price for someone else? I realize that’s a dangerous game, but perhaps you win the deal by hamstringing your competitor rather than by signing Soler.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Thanks for posting the link.
So not even in the top 5 now. And scanning the list, the next game with 5 baserunners was number 12, then number 20. No-hits counts for more than no walks as hits are weighted at twice the value of walks. Suppose that kind of makes sense if the hits are extra bases. OTOH, a single with no one on is the same as a walk, no?
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Well, Koyie did go 4-5 against an old bandsaw, so…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ouch. That’s just wrong. (dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I wouldn’t give them their children back under any condition. They marked their children for life with those stupid fucking names. That should be enough to never give them custody again.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I really think the Cubs want him and I think it has more to do with the new rules than anything else. I think this front office was taken by surprise at the new rules and they’re overreacting to it by signing anyone and everyone to MLB contracts for shitloads of money.
You sign a kid from the Dominican for $2 million and it’s a lot of money and a huge risk. More likely than not you get nothing in return. At what point do you say the risk isn’t worth it? $3 million? Obviously there’s a limit because we’ve never seen Dominican kids signing for the kind of money Soler is going to get. So why is the limit different? Why have they decided spending X amount for a Dominican is crazy stupid, but they haven’t for this guy?
I don’t give a shit about the circumstances. This is a guy with no professional experience, he’s 20 years old, and if some other team or teams want to get retarded with their offers let them. Just maybe they get lucky. More than likely they’re going to look as dumb as they do now.
We saw what Cubs fans thought about the HUGE contract given to Milton Bradley. At least Bradley was somewhat of a competent player at the MLB level. This guy will be playing in the low minors.
I would much rather lock Starlin Castro or Matt Garza up than this shit.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It’s hard to disagree with any of that.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Marlon Byrd has a .245 OBP and a .246 SLG.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Not in the best shape of his life.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I agree with you about Soler. I think Concepcion should’ve been handled differently, especially given his questionable status as a starter. There is no reason to have him start at Peoria. He needed to start in Low-A or Rookie league until he got that changeup down location wise. You can’t start with two plus pitches.
Geraldo, despite being in pro ball, was considered very raw. I think eventually he works out. Looking at his stats, he seems to have a large amount of unearned runs in several starts where he gets shelled. This has to effect the psyche of a pitcher.
I still think he’ll be an equal return investment when all is said and done. This was a severely bad idea to handle him the way he was. I think it would’ve been best to have him start out as a reliever in Boise, let him build up confidence, improve his pitches, and then move him to Peoria next year.
His repriotore has always screamed “Ground-Ball Pitcher” so the strikeout totals don’t worry me.
Did I mention that Peoria means that Thepstien is giving up a year of ML control on Concepcion? Soler is a horrible idea, and this front office has shown it doesn’t know how to handle really raw prospects.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
Because of the way they’ve handled one player? What about the way they’ve handled Baez, which is by doing exactly what you suggest for Concepcion?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
That depends. $7 million for an amateur player is the same as an elite first round draft pick. Not a Strasburg or Harper, but the next tier of talent. I don’t see that there’s any chance he becomes as good as those types of prospects become. He’s just so far away from the big leagues that you’re better off saying only one thing about his future: we’ll probably never see him at the big league level. This is true for anyone in Low A. It’s especially true for someone who is sucking in Low A. He doesn’t strike enough batters out and doesn’t have the control to be an effective reliever either.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
This is one really bad example. Then again, we’re making these judgements off one month of K/BB rating. If you take out his first two starts, Geraldo Concepcion is close to league-average.
The snag here is what seems to be ignorance of the scouting reports on a given player. I feel what I read on Concepcion would mean he was a fringe-starter at any MiLB level right now and a possible starter in MLB down the road. The difference here is less class but role.
IE, it was feasible to fast-track Concepcion, but it wasn’t feasible to fast-track Concepcion as a starter. The third pitch wasn’t there, would not be there without a season of work, the scouts told them so.The clear problem was that Concepcion couldn’t control his change up. This is such an obvious red flag for a starter. Less so if you try to make him a reliever.
So this was to be entirely expected. I think he could be a one-out reliver next year in Double-AA if they so choose. I think he pans out as a Lefty One Out GuY very well but he won’t be that #4/#5 starter if he can’t locate his change-up.
Remember, Geraldo was in extended spring training and ARI Fall league. There were rumblings he would debut as high as AA. Jorge soler is several times more expensive and twice as raw. He has a much higher cieling, but who knows where the pogo stick starts and when he hits it.
He has been suprisingly competent given the circumstances especially if you ignore his first two starts. I don’t think there is any reason to chalk him down as a failure just yet. I do think that Jorge Soler needs to be monitored carefully.
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
That’s all fine and good. It still doesn’t prove this org can’t handle “raw” prospects. It shows that they’ve overestimated the talent level of one prospect. Two plums don’t make a pie.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
If we get two years of +relief out of him, that would be about what such a reliever would cost on the free-agent market. It’s difficult to predict right now. He did pitch well under pressure at a young age and at Low-A is improving despite having difficult circumstances. I really think he is released/resigns for a chunk less at the end of his first contract.
The report on him is what we need to look at. Are those walks due to the developing change-up that he just added to his repritoire?
Only about half the runs allowed by Concepcion are Earned. If you look at his really bad starts, he seems to give up several unearned runs very early on.
PezcoreQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Players in that “next tier”, those in the mid-first round, do not pan out anyway. That is a risk you take with young talent.
Prospects are an absolute crapshoot in baseball.
PezcoreQuote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/06/mlb-declares-jorge-soler-a-free-agent/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
That’s not true. Here’s what he’s done minus the first two starts (which we really can’t take away anyway, but will right now):
28.2 IP
33 H
23 R
14 ER
2 HR
17 BB
16 K
7.22 RA/9 (Runs per 9 innings)
4.40 ERA
4.97 FIP
League RA/9 is 4.55
Lg ERA is 3.78
Lg FIP is 3.78
He’s been quite a bit worse than the league average starter even if we take away those first two starts. He’s allowed 3 runs more per 9 than the league has. He’s allowed more than a run a half more per 9 in FIP. That’s BAD.
mb21Quote Reply
If we take away his worst 2 starts we still get an RA over 6, an ERA of 4.98 and an FIP of 5.09.
There’s really no way to look at his numbers and come away with anything other than terrible. His K/BB rate is atrocious and indicative of a player who struggles to even get to High A, let alone MLB.
mb21Quote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
I’m not talking mid-first round. I’m talking about guys who are usually the number 1 overall pick in years when Harper and Strasburg aren’t around. I’m talking about the very best in the draft minus a couple freak of nature prospects like Harper and Strasburg.
mb21Quote Reply
The first pick in the draft last year signed for $8 million. That’s what I’m talking about. Concepcion isn’t even remotely close to that caliber.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know about Soler, but I like this hamster:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMw0U5hs0Xw
joshQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I don’t know it it’s art, but I like it.
joshQuote Reply
I am super impressed with Bryce Harper’s at bats.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Just a few months ago, he was struggling in the high minors.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
His first two at bats against Beachy he drew walks in 9+ pitch at bats, then he tomohawked an opposite field single in his third on a high fastball.
He really really looks legit. At fucking 19. Unreal.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
But how many saves is he going to record?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh, and one thing that just occurred to me. Johan Santana is just the second person born with the name “Johan Santana” to throw a Major League no-hitter.
ACTQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_06_02_chnmlb_sfnmlb_1&mode=gameday#gid=2012_06_02_chnmlb_sfnmlb_1&mode=classic
I didn’t read every post, but David DeJesus is today’s #3 hitter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-cubs-pursuit-of-soler-official-20120602,0,1642929.story
Today’s lineup (dying laughing):
Campana CF
Castro SS
DeJesus RF
Soriano LF
LaHair 1B
Clevenger C
Barney 2B
Mather 3B
Garza P
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
fixed
mb21Quote Reply
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/10591/ricketts-still-waiting-to-hear-from-rahm
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Dude. Matt Cain.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So I’m in Washington D.C. and I’m apparently blacked out from watching the Cubs play in California, even though that neither the Nationals nor the Orioles are playing. (I’m assuming I’m supposed to be watching them instead.)
Just….fucking lunacy.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I will never understand MLBs blackout rules.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m just going to upload MLB videos to YouTube for 3 hours instead. If they’re going to fuck with me I’ll fuck with them.
GBTSQuote Reply
No Brenly today. Dick Stockton and Karros.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Without the express written consent of Major League Baseball?!?!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’ve already engaged the mute button.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Since it’s 1912 you can just write your own silent movie dialogue cards!
I feel like if they wanted authenticity they should do away with the helmets and have all the dark-skilled folks play in whiteface.
/politically incorrect
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cain looks like he brought the good stuff today.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’s pretty good at baseball.
/understatement
I kind of wish Lincecum was still good too. He’s having major issues this season. Not really sure why.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Boo Mather.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Am I the only one that gets the impression Joe Mather’s defense sucks at 3B?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Shite.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
DeJesus was playing somewhere near Alcatraz Island there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
When did Angel Pagan TRANSFORM?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Oooooh, filthy.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Well, if you’re in Washington, just go watch it on the giant Game Day they have there
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Watching Soriano run makes my knees hurt.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Didn’t realize the Giants had such a bad defense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
TOOTBLAN
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Ewww…run-and-hit makes me sad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
MB doesn’t think those should count as TOOTBLANs
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think that’s more bad luck than an actual TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Drew Stubbs just broke Minute Maid Park
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume Jeff Samardzija owns several of Ryan Braun’s RemeTEEs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nice snag from Barney
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing) and Garza’s “dirt off my shoulder” look coming off the field
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I get what you’re saying, but it always bugs me to compare money for amateur free agents with drafted players. The market is very different.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think he was out, but that was a helluva bunt from Campana
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yep. He was out.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Human element!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Blame FOX for this one, not MLB
BerseliusQuote Reply
THERE’S your TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy fucking shit, what a throw from Posey. Incredible.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Crushed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Speaking of monster HRs, Baez hit a bomb (via HP)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Soriano probably wouldn’t have made it to third safely with his bum leg…I thought he ran out of the box pretty well though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It cleared the Pepsi sign apparently. I think HP took that video himself. He and KG are both at the game
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
As I mentioned, I don’t care about how the circumstances are different. It doesn’t justify spending that much more money. If you want to compare it to something similar, I already compared it to the international free agents in Latin America. Nobody comes close to getting the money that Concepcion did.
mb21Quote Reply
Castro —> good range
Rice CubeQuote Reply
IMO this is where an owner should step in and say, “no, there’s no fucking way you’re spending that much money on this Soler guy and I should bitch slap you for even considering it.” (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Only the owner is too preoccupied praising the genius of Zachary Taylor Davis.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
How many times can Campana fuck up on one play?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wow @ Campana
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soriano was supposed to field that, right? I thought it was obvious once it dropped. Soriano looked like he had the “WTF” face when the ball got knocked away (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Campana can flat fly
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Correct
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aggressive baserunning is working!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soriano’s in so much pain right now. Why the fuck is out there?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Woah…that ball wasn’t played well by Soriano, wonder if it knuckled in the air or something.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ruh roh!
Double play?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
NOW they need a double play…that pitch looked good.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Gameday says just inside.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
How is Soriano not on the DL? He can barely walk.
joshQuote Reply
Ugh
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
It’s almost cruel to keep running him out there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Two of those pitches to Huff looked like strikes, but the last one looked inside, at least to me. I didn’t see the Gameday.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
The last one was inside. Good call by the human element.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
But what about the two before that he called balls?
Wikipedia’s page on Clevenger shows him batting righty. WTF?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Gameday suggests that all the balls were true balls. Not sure if the zone was set up to Huff’s height though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Fair enough.
joshQuote Reply
So I guess to be effective, Campana has to make contact such that the ball hits the infield in an area that is basically unfieldable….easy enough, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
Nice to see Castro take the walk there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
LETS DO THIS
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Why is the #3 hitter bunting?!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fie.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
blech
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I blame Rally Bear.
GBTSQuote Reply
Great pitching performances from both Garza and Cain. Fun to watch.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ll take your word for it.
GBTSQuote Reply
Vitters homered again.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Not a bad game overall. Defensively, though, kind of shitty.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Even Marmol pitched pretty well.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
The MVP did as well.
joshQuote Reply
Remember when Joey Votto was overshadowed by other first basemen in the NL? Seems like an eternity ago.
ACTQuote Reply
Nowadays, Votto towers over the league like a giant towering thing, but as recently as 2010, he was less famous than Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. He only made it to the ASG by that Final Vote thing (which probably helped him get more well-known).
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Doesn’t hurt that most of those guys are now in the AL. I was going to say A-Gonz fell off the map, but I was just looking and he actually has been maintaining a solid performance for the Red Sox. Perhaps being on the Padres has a way of making solid performance look amazing.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
His competitors now are Travis Ishikawa, Aubry Huff, Uh… Lance Berkman sometimes, Bryan LaHair, Adam LaRoche, who is actually having a semi decent year.
Wait, isn’t Michael Morse coming back soon? Maybe he’ll give Joey some competition.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
The DH rule kind of gives the AL a big advantage when it comes to signing first basemen to long-term deals (that is, they have an option when they are no longer able to play the field, so it’s less of a risk).
ACTQuote Reply
Jose Valverde——> Not good this year. Booed off field. Did Marmol (April 2012) imitation
SVBQuote Reply
Miguel Cabrera had a good face palm on tonight’s FOX broadcast….after a TOOTBLAN.
SVBQuote Reply
@ josh:
He came back today, though in the outfield.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I guess he’s not really a full-time 1B, and he probably isn’t back in time to get much All-star voting or anything, even if he does well.
joshQuote Reply
@ SVB:
It must suck to be a closer. You get judged on the smallest sample sizes and your past successes are quickly forgotten.
ACTQuote Reply
Anyway, Twitter is buzzing about how Baez swung 3-0 with a 13-run lead and got plunked on the next pitch. The manager even visited the mound to tell the pitcher to hit him (both manager and pitcher were ejected).
ACTQuote Reply
Aroldis on the year:
28 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 50 K
He hasn’t given up a hit since 5/17. He hasn’t had a single outing all year in which he didn’t have at least 1 K.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Four very good starts!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It would be a tragedy if he never gets a chance to start. I bet if Nolan Ryan were coming up today, he’d be groomed as a closer.
ACTQuote Reply
@ SVB:
In three days, maybe we’ll get a gif of it. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That is a pretty assholish thing to do. Although so is purposely throwing a baseball at someone.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
It would behoove the Cubs to tell him to cool it a bit before someone tries to kill him with a fastball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, but if you take a look at his Twitter, you get the impression that “cooling it” is not something Baez does. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
yeah, but he hasn’t been as good this year as the last two years: FIP is one run higher, ERA is two runs higher, 2:1 K:BB from last year is more like 1:1 this year, BABIP is up, K/9 down to 7.5 from 8.5, while BB/9 is up to 5.75 (!).
I think closers that walk people have a much shorter leash when they have poor streaks than closers that give up runs on hits.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I was not aware he tweeted. I guess the Cubs aren’t going to care as long as he doesn’t suck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yes, but all in the number of innings a typical starter throws in about 3 weeks. All starters have bad months an no one thinks twice about it.
ACTQuote Reply
new shit up
dylanjQuote Reply