Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (14-13) at Milwaukee Brewers (9-20)

In Series Previews by berselius

I guess the good news is that despite the Cubs week, they’re still in second place in the division, so they’ve got that going for them. The Brewers only wish they were so lucky, going 5-5 in their past 10 games has to feel like a huge success. They took a series from the Cubs at Wrigley last weekend, and between that and this week’s Cardinals series this might be a good series for burning off some of that frustration.

Team Leaders

Note: Now that a month has passed, I’ll include the current leader on each team as well as the projected leader from fangraphs’s depth chart projections.

Cubs

  • WAR: Rizzo (1.3), Rizzo (3.9)
  • OBP: Rizzo (.458), Rizzo (.368)
  • SLG: Rizzo (.568), Rizzo (.506)
  • R+RBI: Rizzo (37)
  • Defense: Fowler (2.8), Rizzo (5.9)
  • BSR: Fowler (1.0), Fowler (1.2)
  • SP ERA: Arrieta (3.41), Lester (3.21)
  • SP K/9: Wood (9.73), Arrieta (8.8)
  • SP BB/9: Hammel (0.57), Hendricks (2.1)
  • RP ERA: Rondon (1.50), Rondon (3.3)
  • RP K/9: Strop (10.22), Rosscup (11.0)
  • RP BB/9: Rosscup (0.84), Rondon (2.8)

Brewers

  • WAR: Lind (1.1), Gomez (3.3)
  • OBP: Lind (.409), Lucroy (.344)
  • SLG: Lind (.625), Braun (.479)
  • R+RBI: Lind (30)
  • Defense: Ramirez (3.7), Gomez (6.0)
  • BSR: Segura (0.7), Gomez (1.8)
  • SP ERA: Peralta (3.92), Fiers (3.84)
  • SP K/9: Fiers (12.74),  Fiers (9.2)
  • SP BB/9: Peralta (1.89), Lohse (2.0)
  • RP ERA: Blazek (1.32), Smith (3.25)
  • RP K/9: Broxton (12.27), Knebel (11.0)
  • RP BB/9: Rodriguez (1.64), Broxton (2.8)

That Rizzo guy has gotten off to kind of a great start to the year, huh.

Transactions, minor league news, vengeance pacts, etc.

Iowa Cubs career saves leader Blake Parker was released by the Cubs. He’s coming off a shoulder injury so might slip through waivers.

The Big Hypothesis threw eight shutout innings at South Bend on Wednesday, building on his out of nowhere April numbers.

Justin Grimm is back with the team, which is great news. I’ve been a little concern troll-y on him this week, since the excitement surrounding his return seems waaaay too high. He’s coming off an injury and his second half last year does scream regression. Still, I’d certainly rather see him pitch than Schlitter.

Pitching matchups

Projected ERA, Projected K/9, Projected BB/9 listed for each

Friday: Jason Hammel, RHP (3.89, 7.54, 2.40) vs Jimmy Nelson, RHP (3.94, 7.91, 3.92), 7:10 PM CT

Hammel’s had an unreal start to the year, walking just two batters in 31.1 innings while striking out 27. His BABIP isn’t too out of whack, though his strand rate is due some regression. He’s defied all my expectations thus far.

Nelson pitched into the seventh in his last start, against the Cubs, allowing three runs on seven hits with two walks and six strikeouts. He got lit up in GAB a few starts ago, but aside from that he’s worked deep into most of his starts.

Saturday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.33, 7.43, 3.39) vs Kyle Lohse, RHP (4.23, 6.28, 1.96), 6:10 PM CT

It feels strange that fourteen years later from his rocky debut with the Twins in 2001, Kyle Lohse is still in the league. That whiff of Cardinals Devil Magic that he caught back in 2011 has served him well, though he’s been hammered by opposing batters so far this year. He’s given up at least one HR in all six of his starts this year.

Through his first four starts Wood looked like the guy I was hoping to see this year, racking up some strikeouts and getting a flyball-heavy low BABIP. Then that crazy Cardinals game happened and all his numbers look out of whack. I still like him better than Hendricks right now, and am still clinging to the idea that he might be as good as/better than Hammel too as the season goes on.

Sunday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (3.66, 6.36, 2.08) vs Matt Garza, RHP (4.14, 7.33, 2.90), 1:10 PM CT

I have to wonder how Matt Garza’s feeling about his ‘get the hell out of Chicago’ advice to Shark a year or so ago. Enjoy your 9-20 team, Matt!

Hendricks’s peripherals all look good, but he has to be a key caveat for not scouting the stat line. His movement and location have been off all year, and Brett mentioned on the BN podcast the other day that he took a look at his pfx numbers and he’s had a lot less movement, which is killer when you’re a RHP tossing 89. Bizarrely enough though, his LD% is only 11.1%. If he has a few more rocky starts I wouldn’t be surprised to see him replaced by Wada by the end of the month while he figures it out in Iowa.

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