Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (14-10) at Miami Marlins (13-13)

In Series Previews by berselius208 Comments

The Cubs took care of business against a good Padres team, and embark on a fish-sandwich run of series with Marlins-Nationals-Marlins. Though I guess it’s only a fish sandwich if the fish is in the middle? I guess this is a Long John Silver’s style Double Down. The Marlins win projections are about in line with the Cubs at this point in the season, so we should see some relatively evenly matched games. The Marlins are coming off a series loss against the Barves, barely scraping out a win yesterday to avoid a four game sweep. Their offense as a whole has gotten off to a slow start, posting a .244/.301/.384 slash line and a 90 wrC+. Their pitching staff has posted a dead-on 4.50 ERA, so I guess expect a run every other inning. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

In addition to past…history…the Cubs have with the Marlins, I was surprised to find that old Cardinals pal Skip Schumacher is now their manager. Hopefully he left the voodoo back with the Provel in StL.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Fishes

  • OBP: Luis Arraez (.372)
  • ISO: Jorge Soler (.218)
  • HR: Soler (27)
  • R+RBI: Jazz Chisholm (162)
  • wRC+: Yuli Gurriel (131)
  • BSR: John Berti (2.9)
  • Defense: Jacob Stallings (17.2)
  • SP K/9: Jesus Luzardo (10.03)
  • SP BB/9: Sandy Alcantara (2.24)
  • SP FIP: Alcantara (3.53)
  • RP K/9: Tanner Scott (12.06)
  • RP BB/9: Sixto Sanchez (2.64)
  • RP FIP: Dylan Floro (?!) (3.50)
  • WAR: Arraez (3.9)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He pitched for Iowa on Thursday and got knocked around, but was likely just working on his pitches rather than working on getting outs. He was supposedly hitting 89 or so on the gun, which is fireballing for Cyle. Jameson Taillon is out with a mild groin strain, and has graduated to long toss. He should be back in early May. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason. He’s graduated to throwing live BP.

For the Marlins, old pal Johnny Cueto is on the shelf with a bicep injury and is rehabbing at extended spring training. Starter Trevor Rodgers is out indefinitely with an indefinitely defined arm injury suffered a week or two ago, and has yet to pick up a baseball. Starting shortstop Joey Wendle has been out since early April with an intercostal strain.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Fri-yay: Marcus Stroman, RHP (7.95, 2.60, 3.66) vs Jesus Luzardo, LHP (10.05, 3.20, 3.94), 5:40 PM CT

Saturday: Caleb Killian??, RHP (7.91, 3.54, 4.15) vs Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.97, 4.65, 4.50), 3:05 PM CT

The Cubs have not announced Saturday’s starter, but it’s more likely than not to be Killian.

Sunday: Justin Steele, LHP (9/04, 3.71, 3.68) vs Bryan Hoeing, RHP 4.95, 2.61, 5.08(), 11:05 PM CT

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  2. Author
    berselius

    Taillon ended up doing a bullpen today and felt good, could be back on May 2 for a minimum IL stint.

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  4. Author
    berselius

    Mancini has looked more like I expected of late. He’s not going anywhere with the the contract so smell y later Hosmer.

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  16. Perkins

    Despite the flashbacks to 2003, I gotta say those Marlins throwbacks look better than any uniform they’ve worn since 2011.

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  19. Rice Cube

    I guess there’s some unquantifiable mojo that a closer needs to have in order to be successful more often than not and somehow the Pitch Lab hasn’t been able to synthesize that mojo yet

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  21. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2b Hoerner
    SS Swanson
    LF Happ
    RF Suzuki
    CF Belli
    1B Mancini
    DH Hosmer
    3B Wisdom
    C Barnhart

    P Killian

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  30. Rice Cube

    I don’t think you can even blame this on Barnhart (dying laughing)

    No idea how such a promising prospect would just basically get the mega yips like this but this is super bad

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  31. Rice Cube

    Letting him get another inning was probably an unwise decision, the velocity seemed to drop 1-2 mph unsure due to plan or fatigue or confidence, still no idea where the hell the pitch is going, but to his credit Kilian put up a zero and I would probably not let him start the third, but I also understand they need someone to eat innings.

    If the Cubs take the lead I would not let him go out, but if not the third should be his last inning based mostly on the pitch count anyway.

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  38. Rice Cube

    I will say I like that Kilian has tried to right the ship with these extra innings he was given (probably by necessity anyway) and at this point they might as well let him keep going, although that’s third time through already…

    …and as I say that he gives up another run, alas

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  42. Perkins

    I hope the Cubs come all the way back because banking two losses at the start of a stretch where they really need to do no worse than 6-4 is not ideal.

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  43. andcounting

    I quite honestly don’t recall ever reading or hearing the phrase “sacrifice double play” before, and I’m old.

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  57. Author
    berselius

    This Arraez guy is pretty good, can’t wait for the Cardinals to pick him up for pennies on the dollar.

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  65. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    It’s gonna be another one of those games, Cubs should probably just bat around next inning on this nobody pitcher

    He has a name, sir, and it is a synonym for screwing lots of people.

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  69. andcounting

    The Cubs have been pretty good with runners on base this season but this series has been an aneurysm waiting to happen.

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  76. andcounting

    And I swear it seems like everyone on the Marlins has a nickname for a real name. Nardi, Berti . . . Jesus.

    Belli!!!!

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  82. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube: The Cubs need to sacrifice Clark to the BABIP gods before next series

    I mean, just look at those eyes

    That’s someone who has seen the face of hell.

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  84. Rice Cube

    Things I liked to try to inject some positivity

    1. Bellinger looks good at the plate
    2. Lots of hard hit balls even if outs
    3. Pitching was solid, particularly Steele and Alzolay and even Fulmer despite the baseball that happened around Steele’s start

    Try to stay above .500 until the front office decides to try harder and call up some guys

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  85. Author
    berselius

    Results were a bummer but this series has not moved the needle at all for how I view the team.l going forward.

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  87. Author
    berselius

    Since I probably won’t have time to write one today:

    Series preview: the Natinals are bad.

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  91. Rice Cube

    I guess Gore, one of the gets from the Soto trade, is one of the bright spots on the Nats this year, which isn’t ideal for trying to stop a losing streak but let’s see what they’re made of

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  92. andcounting

    Getting swept sucks, but it’s at least four tiers of misery above whatever the fuck the White Sox are this year. Holy shit.

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  97. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    I guess they’re gonna play this on time, thought that might have been in question with some funky weather around the area

    It’s like you’re actively trying to conjure a tornado out of Evanston.

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  106. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    It’s not ideal weather, but it’s a boring brand of bad (which easily could have been the Cubs slogan the past two years now that I think about it).

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  108. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I was thinking today how the Cubs worst-case scenario at this rate includes probably getting a pretty decent return on Bellinger.

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  129. Author
    berselius

    Belli statline on the season: .295/.373/.589, good for a .406 wOBA and 155 wRC+….and with a .290 BABIP to boot

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  134. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Some of the posts re: Amaya framing are encouraging but that level of learning curve even with a possibly concussed Gomes and Barnhart mentoring is going to be daunting, guess the best case scenario is Gomes is fine and they were just being super cautious while Amaya gets some frequent flier miles

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  136. Rice Cube

    This is basically April plus a day in March and a day in May, but if this is not a mirage, the Cubs might actually be good?

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  140. Rice Cube

    These are always fun for the prospects, getting their first cup of coffee:

    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/the-cubs-are-calling-up-top-prospect-following-injury-to-yan-gomes/

    “Because I was getting the call up to the bigs,” Amaya recalled. “Immediately I jumped to him, I hugged him and immediately called my parents.”

    But his parents, Max Amaya and Anny Oro didn’t pick up the phone. He spent an hour trying to reach them. When they finally did answer, he gave them the good news. His parents are flying out to Washington D.C. from Panama and the plan is for them to be at Nationals Park on Wednesday.

    “When they answered, they got shocked,” Amaya said. “Then they start crying, I start crying, too. It’s something we’ve been waiting for so long. It’s been ups and downs like I said, but now we’re here and it’s time to grind.”

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  146. Perkins

    Any chance the Cubs try to extend Cody Bellinger? He looks like he might actually be back, and maybe he could switch to 1B once PCA is ready to come up.

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  148. Author
    berselius

    Perkins,

    Would be a shame to take that plus plus OF defense and park it at 1b…not to mention that he’d just be blocking Mervis instead.

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  155. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    They should probably option Rios if they’re just going to PH him in a situation where he probably could have actually done some damage, and I suppose we all know how folks feel about the other guy

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  156. Perkins

    berselius,

    Yeah, I guess Mervis would be the cheaper option and provide more roster flexibility. I feel like if Bellinger is *back* he’s one of those guys you make space for. Maybe that would just be a regular rotation of the outfielders (including PCA) with one of them DH-ing at any given time.

    Probably the smarter move to extend him the QO and graduate more young guys next year, but I feel like any team with room for Edwin Rios and Eric Hosmer can make room for Cody Bellinger.

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  161. Author
    berselius

    Perkins:
    berselius,

    Yeah, I guess Mervis would be the cheaper option and provide more roster flexibility. I feel like if Bellinger is *back* he’s one of those guys you make space for. Maybe that would just be a regular rotation of the outfielders (including PCA) with one of them DH-ing at any given time.

    Probably the smarter move to extend him the QO and graduate more young guys next year, but I feel like any team with room for Edwin Rios and Eric Hosmer can make room for Cody Bellinger.

    One of these days I’m going to remember that the DH exists in the NL (dying laughing)

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  165. Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    Methinks they need a different adhesive, probably one that is somewhere between spittle and extreme David Cone super sticky rosin-alcohol experiment

    Strikeouts, walks and wild pitches are up significantly in the Southern League this season with the new enhanced grip baseballs, largely because of the extreme movement the balls are generating. Spin rates on four-seam fastballs have increased and the amount of carry on four-seamers has jumped significantly, making the ball simultaneously more difficult for pitchers to control and for hitters to make contact against.

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  175. Rice Cube

    Looks like Taillon will start tomorrow and thankfully the bullpen is rested because the starters have gotten length through the series but the recent stretch isn’t filling me with a lot of confidence

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  177. andcounting

    Rice Cube: Yup…what a stupid inning to blow a 9th inning opportunity, if you’re gonna have your 1B bunt in that situation he needs to not be on the roster anymore

    This. But, if you’re afraid of the double play with none out, why not squeeze the run home with one out?

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  178. BVS

    andcounting,

    Because there’s no way Wisdom would hit a ground ball?

    Or why not use Magical to bunt since he actually does that as part of his game and you took Hosmer out for a runner anyway?

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  179. BVS

    So it would be nice if they wiped the floor with the Marlins and Nationals before the schedule gets a bit tougher again. But even for the most curmudgeonly of us, the verdict in these first 24 games should be “so far, so good” and we’ll go from here.

    That’s not aging well, except for the condtional tense up front.

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  180. andcounting

    BVS,

    Yeah, I mean, it all just looks terrible in retrospect. Hosmer laying down a decent bunt and Mancini getting thrown out at 2nd but Hosmer reaching 1st safely was probably the least likely outcome, I’ll grant Ross that. But he was SO unprepared for that scenario it was like he didn’t even bother coming up with a plan. He brought in a pinch runner BUT DIDN’T HAVE HIM RUN. I don’t think having Wisdom bunt made sense, but having someone do it for him in some kind of “we’re tying this game or we’re burning it down trying” effort would have been nice? I don’t mind letting Wisdom hit, but not AT LEAST sending the runner after having ground into 37 double plays already is mind boggling. The players are outperforming Ross and the front office this season, and that’s bizarre as fuck.

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  183. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I will say that when the Cubs have lost BN that it suggests they’ll need to actually do something soon, also my recollection prior to flushing that game like so many others this week was that the bunt was a really bad one that I feel most of us agree should never have happened

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  184. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I think it was just an aggressive defensive play. There’s not a whole lot you can do to cheat toward second on a bunt since you have to guard against getting doubled off on a popup. It certainly would have made sense to pinch run for him after his single. That’s my mildest beef, probably, but it sure would have made more sense than what happened.

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  185. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I don’t think the bunt in and of itself was terrible. In the context of how the rest of the inning played out it’s abysmal, but maybe the worst thing is being told by all parties, or at least being led to think by a series of winks and nudges that the roster is made up of what management believes is the best construction available only to have your designated hitter bunting with the game on the line. It suggests that the justification for keeping Mervis and Morel down in AAA is a bad faith argument.

    I don’t understand the intricacies of playing time rules, but if I were Morel’s or Mervis’s lawyer hitting the Cubs with a lawsuit for manipulating service time, that bunt call would be exhibit A. “So you expect us to believe you were fielding the best team possible? Explain . . . THIS!!!!!”

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  187. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I’d like to run the run/win expectancy tables because a bunt basically plays to tie, not for a big inning, and that’s only one of several reasons I absolutely despised that bunt play (dying laughing)

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  189. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    andcounting,

    I’d like to run the run/win expectancy tables because a bunt basically plays to tie, not for a big inning, and that’s only one of several reasons I absolutely despised that bunt play (dying laughing)

    Pretty much any way you slice it, the home team’s odds increase slightly even if the original bunt goes as planned. BUT, compared to if Hosmer had hit into a double play, even the outcome the Cubs got from his bunt was far superior to the ~90% win probability the Nationals would have making it a runner at third with 2 outs.

    Whether he’s a worthy DH or not, Hosmer is a shoe-in GiDP HOF’er. Something had to be done.

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  190. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Are we in agreement that he just should have been pinch hit for so a bunt wouldn’t have been as necessary?

    I’ll be hanging out with the wife today so I’ll follow GameDay and enjoy my day and not get too grumpy

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  192. Rice Cube

    It suddenly struck me as weird that the Cubs might have been able to “fix” Cody Bellinger, small sample size caveats apply, while they couldn’t do the same for Jason Heyward, I guess that’s probably just weird confirmation bias though.

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  193. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    Yeah, without someone credible saying, “we changed this,” it’s just about impossible to say they fixed anything. He could just have gotten out of his head or broken up with his girlfriend or started wearing his rally hat to bed. I doubt we’ll ever know.

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  195. Rice Cube

    Oh hello

    I guess I could write this up when I get back from Costco (dying laughing)

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  196. Perkins

    Rice Cube:
    It suddenly struck me as weird that the Cubs might have been able to “fix” Cody Bellinger, small sample size caveats apply, while they couldn’t do the same for Jason Heyward, I guess that’s probably just weird confirmation bias though.

    Two major differences, I think. One, Heyward wasn’t broken, but the Cubs tried to unlock another level. Seems like they broke him in the process and he never got right again. Bellinger knew he was broken and so did everyone else, so maybe the only way to go was up. Two, they’ve had a lot of turnover in coaching and player development, so it’s possible the newer blood was able to find tweaks that worked.

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  198. Perkins

    I gotta think Rios is the odd man out when Mervis comes up, right? Ross barely uses him, he has options, and they seem unwilling to cut bait on Hosmer so quickly due to optics.

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  206. Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Can’t wait for the next preview, I’m trying to diversify my thinking so I don’t become part of the Cubs blogosphere echo chamber, kind of tough to do when everyone’s on the same wavelength most of the time though

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