Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (11-4) at Cincinnati Reds (8-7)

In Series Previews by berselius80 Comments

The Cubs follow up their series win against the Cardinals with ten straight games against the Reds, Brewers, and Barves. Not too shabby of a start to the season, schedule-wise. The Reds are coming off a series win vs the Rockies but have the Cubs, Mets, and Pirates up next on their slate. They have a winning record despite a run differential of of -16 on the season. Their pitching staff, in particular has allowed the third-most runs in the NL, bostered by a league-worst 39 runs coughed up by their bullpen. This is led by now-former Reds closer and saves 'leader' (he has one save, which is one more than any other Reds pitcher) J.J. Hoover, and there is no clear replacement for the role.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Fowler (.523)
  • ISO: Fowler (.314)
  • HR: Rizzo (4)
  • R+RBI: Rizzo (22)
  • wRC+: Fowler (226)
  • BSR: Heyward (1.7)
  • SP K/9: Lackey (10.07)
  • SP BB/9: Arrieta (0.82)
  • SP FIP: Hendricks (2.60)
  • RP K/9: Rondon (18.00)
  • RP BB/9: Grimm (0.00)
  • RP FIP: Rondon (-0.95)
  • WAR: Fowler (1.7)

​Reds

  • OBP: Cozart?! (.425)
  • ISO: Bruce (.276)
  • HR: Bruce/Suarez (4)
  • R+RBI: Bruce (23)
  • wRC+: Cozart (159)
  • BSR: Hamilton (0.9)
  • SP K/9: Simon (12.71)
  • SP BB/9: Iglesias (1.93)
  • SP FIP: Iglesias (2.92)
  • RP K/9: Ohlendorf (10.97)
  • RP BB/9: Cotham (3.38)
  • RP FIP: Cotham (2.92)
  • WAR: Duvall (0.7)

The lowest xFIP among all Reds relievers is the recently demoted Jumbo Diaz (4.55).

Pitching Matchups

2016 ERA, 2016 K/9 2016 BB/9, projected ERA listed for each pitcher. 

Thursday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (1.23, 8.18, 0.82, 2.63) vs Brandon Finnegan, LHP (2.04, 8.15, 5.09, 3.96), 6:10 PM CT

Old Hoss would approve of Finnegan somehow being the only MLB player ever with his surname. He pitched into the seventh against the Cubs last week, allowing just one hit but walking five. He picked up a W in his next start against the Cards but still walked four batters and allowed four runs. He seems like the kind of guy the Cubs patient lineup would eat up, despite my memory of relative impatience against him in his last start.

Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (2.21, 8.41, 1.77, 3.07) vs Jon Moscot, RHP (4.76, 3.18, 1.59, 5.36), 6:10 PM CT

Moscot was one of the parade of rookie Reds starters from last season, and the results were not so great, albeit in a small sample size. He throws a bunch of junk according to his pfx mix, and has never struck many batters out. The Cardinals knocked him around in his first start and had him on the ropes nearly every inning, and he was lucky that the two homers he coughed up were solo shots.

Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (3.66, 10.07, 2.29, 3.38) vs Dan Straily, RHP (2.70, 8.10, 4.05, 5.17), 6:10 PM CT

Straily was briefly with the Cubs in 2014, and made one forgettable start in August against the Mets in which he gave up seven runs. This year, the Cusb saw him when he came in relief of Alfredo Simon's 50 pitch, two out start, where he went two innings and change giving up two more runs. He moved into the Reds starting rotation earlier this week and gave up one run over five innings to the Rockies. Even if Straily is as sharp as that game, you have to think the Cubs will be feasting on that Reds bullpen in this game.

Sunday: Jason Hammel. RHP (1.00, 7.50, 3.50, 3.90) vs iCarly Simon, RHP (12.15, 12.15, 6.75, 5.11), 12:10 PM CT

Simon was…not great…in his last start, not even making it out of the first inning against the relentless Cubs offense. Pretty much the only good thing you could say about it is that he didn't give up a home run. He was scratched from his next start due to biceps tendinitis, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another short outing or another scratched start here on Sunday. 

 

Today's lineups

Cubs

  • Fowler
  • Heyward
  • Bryant
  • Rizzo
  • Soler
  • Zobrist
  • Russell
  • Ross
  • Arrieta

Reds

  • SS Cozart
  • 3B Suarez
  • 1B Votto
  • 2B Phillps
  • RF Bruce
  • C Mesoraco
  • LF Duvall
  • CF Schebler
  • P Finnegan

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Comments

  1. dmick89

    Last year in September, tHom Brenneman said during one of Iglesias’s starts against the Cubs that no one in baseball was hotter than Iglesias. I’m not joking. Jake Arrieta was sitting in the other dugout and was in the headlines pretty much every day and there’s Brenneman saying dumb shit.

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  2. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    dmick89:
    Last year in September, tHom Brenneman said during one of Iglesias’s starts against the Cubs that no one in baseball was hotter than Iglesias. I’m not joking. Jake Arrieta was sitting in the other dugout and was in the headlines pretty much every day and there’s Brenneman saying dumb shit.

    He meant objectively hot

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  3. cerulean

    The Reds carried a no-hitter into the sixth in the home opener. Nice of Jake to return the favor in their park.

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  4. umbra

    This Grand Slam brought to you by: Denny’s. When you don’t want to look yourself in the mirror, it’s Denny’s time.

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  5. uncle dave

    Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 2m2 minutes ago
    Jake Arrieta last 24 regular season starts:
    20-1, 0.86 ERA, 178.0 IP, 91 Hits, 173/33 K/BB, 0.697 WHIP.
    These are REAL numbers. #Cubs

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  6. Rice Cube

    119 pitches.

    Game score = 89

    I’m OK with this, they’ll manage him better next outing unless he also throws a no-hitter.

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  7. Smokestack Lightning

    According to some nerd tweeting from nerd central, Cubs have a +57 run differential, which is better than all the positive run differentials of all the teams in the AL.

    Combined.

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  8. Urk

    If we’re trying to get Montero a little more rest (because of the loss of Schwarber) maybe it makes sense to send Ross out with Arrietta more often? Figuring that its safer to have a weaker bat in the lineup with the pitcher who most successfully minimizes opposing runs?

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  9. Rice Cube

    Urk,

    It might make sense but I think they did it today due to the matchup (platoon advantage) as well. If they give Montero 7 out of every 10 starts (assume Ross is personal C for 2x Lester starts) that might be enough, that gives Montero about 115 starts and the rest go to Ross (minus the one start Schwarber had, I think). 115 games for a catcher seems reasonable.

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