The Cubs basically canceled yesterday’s game because they didn’t like the matchup. No other explanation makes sense to me – the rain had passed the Chicago area after an hour or two, and it didn’t look like there were further huge storms that could delay ther teams’ flights out of town. I think it had a lot more to do with Coleman vs Chacin. So instead of playing 13 games in a row, the Cubs figured they’d be better off getting an off day and moving this one to June 27. It means they’ll play 17 games in a row heading into the all star break, but without the makeup game they were already slated to play 13 in a row anyway, so no huge deal. Oddly enough they originally had an off day on 6/23, a three game series against the Royals, then another off day before the stretch leading up to the ASB. I guess you need that extra time to prepare and decompress when you’re playing such an important opponent (laughing). The Cubs rotation should be in better shape by then (knock on wood) so I think this was the right decision.
Team Overview
Arizona team stats (NL Ranks in Parens)
wOBA: .328 (4th)
UZR: -0.1 (9th)
DRS: -13 (11th)
SP FIP: 4.71 (15th)
SP xFIP: 4.19 (13th)
RP FIP: 4.26 (14th)
RP xFIP: 3.48 (5th)
Batters
| Player | wOBA | ZiPS wOBA |
| CF Chris Young | .311 | .341 |
| 2B Kelly Johnson | .267 | .349 |
| RF Justin Upton | .366 | .379 |
| SS Stephen Drew | .387 | .345 |
| C Miguel Montero | .369 | .338 |
| 3B Ryan Roberts | .438 | .328 |
| 1B Russell Branyan | .356 | .377 |
| LF Gerardo Parra | .334 | .323 |
Cub killer Willie Bloomquist is on the DL with a hamstring injury. Replacement level third baseman Geoff Blum is also on the DL, and fellow replacement leveler Melvin Mora has a foot injury.
Pitchers
| Player | FIP | ZiPS FIP |
| RHP Ian Kennedy | 3.16 | 3.88 |
| RHP Daniel Hudson | 3.07 | 3.47 |
| LHP Joe Saunders | 5.16 | 4.60 |
| RHP Barry Enright | 5.69 | 4.85 |
| RHP Armando Galarraga | 7.75 | 5.20 |
| RHP J.J. Putz | 2.92 | 3.43 |
| RHP David Hernandez | 4.12 | 4.81 |
The Dbacks are still missing Zach Duke, who broke his hand in spring trianing.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, and projected FIP are in parentheses.
Thursday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (7.63, 5.71, 3.69, 3.87) vs Barry Enright, RHP (6.65, 5.69, 4.75, 4.85), 8:40 PM CT
MB took an excellent look at Ryan Dempster the other day, which is much better than anything I could say here. The short version is that there does not appear to be anything wrong with Dempster, he’s just had some awful HR/FB luck.
The Cubs have already faced Enright this season. He went 6 innings and gave up four runs, including a homer to Tyler Colvin. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher and it’s not surprising that he gives up a lot of HRs. Given that whatever they’re calling The BOB these days is a hitters’ park, that’s not a great combination. Lucky for Arizona they’re facing the Cubs, who have failed to hit a HR in any of the games they’ve played at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out.
Friday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (5.28, 3.62, 3.65, 3.67) vs Armando Galarraga, RHP (6.00, 7.75, 4.47, 5.20), 8:40 PM CT
Z followed up a great start vs the Padres with an awful one vs the Dodgers. However, one silver lining is that in those last two games Z has been generating ground balls at a much more Z-like rate. His season GB% is now in line with his past few seasons, which was a concern of mine. His peripherals are all looking good, he just doesn’t have the ERA to show for it.
Galarraga, on the other hand, has had some awful luck. Perfect game notwithstanding, he doesn’t have great stuff and a 26.7% HR/FB rate just makes it worse. He did manage to beat the Cubs in their last series, giving up four runs in seven innings while striking out five. He’s coming off a three inning, six runs allowed start against the Mets where his defense did not give him much help. See my above note about why his HR/FB rate doesn’t matter that much (laughing).
Saturday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.11, 1.24, 1.93, 3.82) vs Ian Kennedy, RHP (4.02, 3.16, 3.76, 3.88), 7:10 PM CT
Starlin Castro had a rough day behind Garza in his last start, committing three errors in one inning to give the game away to the Rockies. At least those unearned runs brought Garza’s ERA down to a level closer to the incredible peripherals he’s posted so far. He’s been Zambrano-like in his ability to seemingly go to a full count with every batter, but so far he’s exciting to watch.
Kennedy’s a decent pitcher who’s reputation was tarnished by a few bad starts early in his career at the pressure cooker of Yankee Stadium. The luck dragon has helped him out so far as far as BABIP and HR/FB are concerned. I’m taking his projections with a grain of salt though, as the decent numbers he posted last year came with an unsustainable .256 BABIP. Some of that comes from the fact that he’s a fly ball pitcher, but that has to move up.
Sunday: Casey Coleman, RHP (7.43, 5.88, 5.61, 4.97) vs Daniel Hudson, RHP (5.64, 3.07, 3.60, 3.47), 3:10 PM CT
Coleman’s start was pushed back because the Cubs didn’t feel like playing yesterday. I’ll be lazy and just repeat what I said in the last preview. Coleman was hit hard by the Dodgers in his last start, though somehow no balls left the yard. He’s been a little unlucky with balls in play, but so far he’s looked eminently hittable. So much for the Confidence Aura of Mike Quade helping him out.
Hudson was a 2008 draft pick by the White Sox, and he rocketed through their system all the way to the bigs in 2009. He was laughably traded to ARI for Edwin Jackson last season, one of the dumber moves by generally shrewd dealer Kenny Williams. He posted great numbers in 14 starts last year for the two teams, though his 2.45 ERA was largely a product of a .241 BABIP. It looks like he’s yet another flyball pitcher. Maybe I’m wrong about the Dbacks ballpark, but you’d think that these aren’t the kind of pitchers they’d want to stockpile.
Prediction
This could be a fun series. I think they split the series, with the Cubs winning on two of the first three days. I’m bummed the Cubs don’t face Joe Saunders, who is one of my favorite punching bags.
Comments
A split against one of the worst teams in the league? Well, the D’Backs did win a series against CIN so I guess they don’t suck that bad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]A split against one of the worst teams in the league? Well, the D’Backs did win a series against CIN so I guess they don’t suck that bad.[/quote]
The Cubs have a good shot in each of the first three games. Home field does matter a little.
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs sure have played some crap teams so far this season. Long live NL mediocrity!
AndCountingQuote Reply
NL Mediocrity is dead. Long live NL mediocrity!
MishQuote Reply
I wonder if all the beat writers have designated tweeters.
Aisle424Quote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]The Cubs have a good shot in each of the first three games. Home field does matter a little.[/quote]
I feel they need a sweep of this series or else the shit will hit the fan. After this series, they play the Dodgers again (solid pitching and red-hot Ethier/Kemp), they have to play CIN, STL, and the Giants. If they don’t sweep then I think the roller coaster ride to .500 is done with.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]
[/quote]
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/04/28/428-mothers-day-special-for-soriano/
Cool.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]If they don’t sweep then I think the roller coaster ride to .500 is done with.[/quote]Here’s an update on the ride:
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Here’s an update on the ride:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
That would totally ruin your day.
MuckerQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
There’s about a 0.001% chance that physics takes hold and they make it safely, GBTS.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ben Zobrist —> 8 RBI today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]There’s about a 0.001% chance that physics takes hold and they make it safely, GBTS.[/quote]True, and that roller coaster is showing way more heart this time around the tracks than the last time.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]True, and that roller coaster is showing way more heart this time around the tracks than the last time.[/quote]
Last time around the roller coaster would probably have crashed to the ground, killing or maiming everyone on board. But not this time, as it will merely induce heart attacks in a few passengers plus a couple soiled undergarments.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I feel they need a sweep of this series or else the shit will hit the fan. After this series, they play the Dodgers again (solid pitching and red-hot Ethier/Kemp), they have to play CIN, STL, and the Giants. If they don’t sweep then I think the roller coaster ride to .500 is done with.[/quote]
You and I don’t often agree, but, in this case, I believe, you are correct, in this instance alone, fun-sucker.
Aisle424Quote Reply
This really made no sense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is a bit different…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]True, and that roller coaster is showing way more heart this time around the tracks than the last time.[/quote]
Can you quantify this?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]
[/quote](dying laughing) (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This is a bit different…
Ummmm…k…
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Can you quantify this?[/quote]Why don’t you go stick your cock in a spreadsheet you fucking stuck up faget.
/Bizarro Alvin
GBTSQuote Reply
who is posting the draft thread
dylanjQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Why don’t you go stick your cock in a spreadsheet you fucking stuck up faget.
/Bizarro Alvin[/quote]
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]
[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
That looks fun.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Is that a Brewer’s hat in the top left of the Ride to .500?
GBTSQuote Reply
I’m out for an hour, let me know which faget thread you guys will be talking in. Assuming some draft thread.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
Is that a Brewer’s hat in the top left of the Ride to .500?[/quote]
Yes’m.
MishQuote Reply
And there is a guy in a cast, (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
I’m not as optimistic as berselius. I expect they lose the last 3 in the series.
mb21Quote Reply
They’ll be a game thread, but one of you nfl fans can post your own draft thread. See Al’s posts for directions on posting. They’re the same here. Read them thoroughly. You’ll be quizzed later.
mb21Quote Reply
Oh good, Soto is getting a day off today. When his day off was rained out yesterday, I was worried whether he would get any rest.
ACTQuote Reply
well you gotta get hill in there because if you dont……………………………………….
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Oh good, Soto is getting a day off today. When his day off was rained out yesterday, I was worried whether he would get any rest.[/quote]Quade told Soto in November he wouldn’t be playing Game 24 of the season so…
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]well you gotta get hill in there because if you dont……………………………………….[/quote]
The payroll bandits will be after you.
WaLiQuote Reply
i tried to post an unobstructed view for the draft but it didnt work. i’ll just thread jack this bitch
dylanjQuote Reply
Here it is, dj
http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/draft-thread.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
It didn’t work? Are you blind?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It didn’t work? Are you blind?[/quote]
Maybe it just didn’t show up right away or something. I tried setting one up for him and when I tried setting jcomments on it directed me back to this page without posting the article. Then I saw dylan’s in the sidebar.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It didn’t work? Are you blind?[/quote]
http://www.itdidntworkareyoublind.com
MishQuote Reply
That’s weird, b. I posted a few things on that one and they were there instantly. RC, did you notice the one you did right away?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It didn’t work? Are you blind?[/quote]
Fuck you!
dylanjQuote Reply
He can’t contain his ramblings to 140 characters.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That’s weird, b. I posted a few things on that one and they were there instantly. RC, did you notice the one you did right away?[/quote]
No, not until you posted it for me. Might have been my fault though as I made it for registered folks rather than public.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
lineup
fukudome
castro
baker
ramirez
pena
byrd
colvin
hill
demp
BerseliusQuote Reply
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/games/cubs-at-diamondbacks-4-28-2011.html
mb21Quote Reply