There really isn't all that much to say, is there? The Cubs were one series away from the World Series. They got a lot better. The seemingly 5 months of spring training are finally over. It snowed in Chicago yesterday. It's Opening Day!!!
Team Leaders
From 2015 numbers
This is kind of a moot point for LAAoAoLAoD
Mike Trout + the Troutettes
- OBP: Trout (.402)
- ISO: Trout (.290)
- HR: Trout (41) – I had no idea that Pujols hit 40 (!) last year
- R+RBI: Trout (194)
- wrC+: Trout (172)
- BSR: Aybar (3.4)
- UZR: Calhoun (13.8)
- DRS: Calhoun (6)
- SP K/9: Santiago (8.08)
- SP BB/9: Weaver (1.87)
- SP FIP-: Heaney (96)
- RP K/9: Rasmus (12.23)
- RP BB/9: Salas (1.70)
- RP FIP-: Morin (73)
- WAR: Trout (9.0)
Trout is just freaking amazing. We all know this to be true. What is interesting is how terrible the team around him has been. It reminds me off the LeBron teams in his first stint in Cleveland; you have this generational talent, and you surround him with non-entities like Matthew Joyce and Johnny Giavotella.
The Angels have a perennial MVP favorite, a crazy rich man for an owner, and clear holes at half of the roster. They decided to fix none of them. To paraphrase Yogi Berra: If I was an Angels fan, I wouldn't be.
Chicago Cubs of Chicago
- OBP: Rizzo (.387)
- ISO: Schwarber (.241)
- HR: Rizzo (31)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (195)
- wrC+: Rizzo (145)
- BSR: Bryant (7.1)
- UZR: Coghlan (9.2)
- DRS: Russell (10)
- SP K/9: Arrieta (9.28)
- SP BB/9: Arrieta (1.89)
- SP FIP-: Arrieta (60)
- RP K/9: Grimm (12.14)
- RP BB/9: Richard (1.85)
- RP FIP-: Wood (65)
- WAR: Arrieta (7.3)
I'm not sure how the Cubs are going to survive without 2015's leader in UZR. Over than that, the core of the baseball team is still intact.
Pitching Matchups
I list last year's FIP and this year's ZiPS projected ERA for each pitcher.
Monday: Jay Carrieta, RHP (2.35, 2.56) vs Garrett Richards, RHP (3.86, 3.21), 9:05 PM CT
Tuesday: Jon Lester, LHP (2.92, 2.98) vs Andrew Heaney, LHP (3.73, 3.76), 9:05 PM CT
We know enough about Jay and Jon to hold us over today, so I'm going to talk about the Angels pitchers at some length. First off is Garrett Richards, who is a pure "stuff" guy. According to Pitch F/X, he had the fastest velocity over all qualified pitchers last season:
Richards 95.7
Ventura 95.6
Cole 95.5
Harvey 95.2
Martinez 95.2
Richards' problem is that he doesn't convert that velocity into results- at least not last season. While 2014 was a breakout season (with a 2.60 FIP), 2015 was a regression to mediocrity. Richards had 7.64 K/9 and 3.30 BB/9, and he's such a 2 trick pony (2-seam and slidepiece) that you wonder if he'd be better suited back in a bullpen somewhere. Still, he's a pretty average pitcher right now that could put it together and be elite, so the Angels (who have many backup options but few of them intriguing) will give him a long leash to figure it out.
Andrew Heaney was a Top 50 prospect last year. He more or less converted on the whole of his potential, notching average numbers in his first extended look in the minors last season (3.73 FIP, 6.64 K/9, 2.38 BB/9). Heaney gave up a lot of hard contact, and that was a primary driver of his failures last season, but as a changeup guy, you expect that. The change usually comes last among pitchers, and Heaney will need his develop to be more than a #4. I like his chances. He'll never be overly special, but Heaney is exactly the type of starter the Cubs should be trying to acquire this deadline; cheap, effective, and someone who doesn't walk a bunch of people.
Starting lineups
Trout and the Guppies (subject to change):
Escobar 3B
Nava LF
Trout CF
Pujols DH
Calhoun RF
Cron 1B
Simmons SS
Perez C
Giavotella 2B
Chicago Cubs (subject to change in the extreme):
Fowler CF
Heyward RF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Schwarber DH
Soler RF
Montero C
Russell SS
*Thanks to Myles for writing most of the content here. I only did the stat-gathering, I'm sure Aramis Ramirez would approve. –berselius
Comments
#LetsGo
aisle424Quote Reply
what’s the D for?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
DYODD
aisle424Quote Reply
What’s that extra D for?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That’s a typo.
aisle424Quote Reply
aisle424Quote Reply
Looks like they’re giving Schwarber the start in LF and using Soler at DH. Don’t know if that’s a reflection on the team’s thoughts about the two in the field or an attempt to keep Soler healthy, but it’s interesting.
uncle daveQuote Reply
It’s spelled with two Ds, as he says, “for a double dose of this pimping.”
uncle daveQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Read the title of the article. That’s all we ask.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing), they have to be.
GWQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what Moneyball is about.
GWQuote Reply
aisle424Quote Reply
It didn’t take the Giants very long to figure out this is an even-numbered year.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Personal catchers are the new market inefficiency.
aisle424Quote Reply
(dying laughing) titles are for suckers
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Related:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28649
GWQuote Reply
I love that Ruben Amaro is coaching first for the Red Sox. I hear Dan Jennings is available, too. You would have to give him strong consideration as Bullpen Coach.
GWQuote Reply
Wow, Yunel Escobar is leading off for the Angels
GWQuote Reply
GW,
Their lineup tonight is basically the 2012 Cubs plus Mike Trout. And Trout is good enough to put them in the conversation for the playoffs.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Ftfy
WaLiQuote Reply
Remember Albert Pujols playing DH for the Cubs in 2012? Those were the days.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
The dropoff between 2015 Pujols and 2012 Soriano is about a win. There’s a little bit of hyperbole to say that the 2016 Angels are basically the 2012 Cubs plus Trout, but it’s not all that far off.
uncle daveQuote Reply
It seems like the Polanco contract is basically the same one he turned down right before they called him up. Quite a bit more than the 7/$25 they offered him in spring training of 2014, though.
GWQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I can’t believe they managed to get Simmons with that abomination of a farm system.
GWQuote Reply
Hi. Long time reader, not very often poster. Is there any chance you fellas could setup a crowdsource cubes top 40 prospects where readers all submit their own top 40 and then you do some kind of average? I think there was some talk of this in the past.
Cheers,
The Jerome Walton Fan Club
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
Jerome Walton,
We’ve done this before so if there’s enough interest then we can do it again. Who else is interested?
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m going all in. Cubs go 100-62, win division by 14 games over the Pirates, beat the Mets in the LDS, beat the Dodgers in the LCS and beat Toronto in the World Series. Prove me wrong.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/442016-cubs-angels/
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply