The compensation the Cubs will send to the Red Sox for Theo Epstein has been going on for seemingly ever. It’s now in Bud Selig’s hands and he’ll soon rule on what the Cubs have to give the Red Sox. Apparently the Sox still want something significant, but as has been said time and again, there’s no precedent for a significant package in this type of situation. When Andy MacPhail left the Twins for the Cubs the Twins received 2 mediocre prospects. The Red Sox have insisted all along that they will receive a significant value in return. At one time, and perhaps still, they wanted Matt Garza. That’s not going to happen. It never was going to happen.
At first I thought Brett Jackson or Trey McNutt might be the guy sent to Boston. That was based on the player the Red Sox had agreed to send the A’s for Billy Beane several years ago. That player was Kevin Millar Kevin Youkilis. Although Youkilis was not the highly ranked prospect that Jackson is, the numbers in the minors were in some ways similar. Youkilis got on base more, but hit for less power. He was a little older than Jackson too. Brett Jackson won’t be going anywhere though.
I still wouldn’t be surprised to see Trey McNutt involved. McNutt was highly thought of entering last season, but after a series of blisters and a baserunning collision his numbers weren’t nearly as good as the previous years. He’s not ranked in mlb.com’s top 100 prospects. He’s more than likely not going to be ranked in Baseball America’s either. He’s still young and the Cubs would much prefer to keep him so they won’t be happy if they give him up.
Based on the bashing the Red Sox did of Theo Epstein shortly before he left I can’t imagine that helps their case too much. If what they said is true then perhaps Selig should give them Alfonso Soriano and his contract. That’s the type of compensation package I’d love.
It was mentioned awhile back that the Cubs and Red Sox could use the compensation if the Sox were to trade for Matt Garza. Maybe the Cubs throw in another low-level prospect at no cost or the Red Sox give up a little less in return. That’s not going to happen at this point.
Selig said Friday night he’d like to have it done as quickly as possible. He said he gave the clubs more latitude in hopes they’d reach an agreement, but they couldn’t. Selig said now it’s his decision and that’s OK, all part of the job.
Levine is essentially saying that the two clubs are no longer even discussing this and it’s all up to Selig. Selig made some comment recently that were similar to this. As a result, the compensation will be a player or two going to Boston. The Sox could still go after Matt Garza if they wanted, but that’s probably not going to happen given the asking price.
Speaking of Garza, I was doing a little more thinking about the arbitration values the two sides exchanged. The Cubs offer was $7.95 million and Garza asked for $12.5 million. It’s interesting because there’s such a large difference between the two figures.
The Cubs offer was ridiculously low. Garza received a raise of $2.6 million last year after a league average season in 2010. He wasn’t significantly better than that in 2009 either. In fact, Matt Garza hadn’t really been that good a pitcher until 2011. Despite that, he still received that $2.6 million raise. It was his second year of arbitration and since he’s a Super 2 he’ll have 4 of them. Assuming the player doesn’t fall off a cliff players are paid more each time through arbitration. Garza earned $5.95 million last year so the Cubs only offered a raise of $2 million. That’s more than half a million less than the raise Garza received after being average in 2010.
Was Garza’s offer too high? Let’s say Garza was a free agent and you were going to sign Garza for 1 year. How much would we pay? Off the top of my head I’d go with about $15-17 million. I’m fairly confident he won’t be nearly as good as last season, but I’m also confident he’s a better pitcher now than he was prior to joining the Cubs. I think 3 to 3.5 WAR is more than reasonable and probably a lot lower than many other fans are expecting. At $5 million per win that’s $15 to $17.5 million.
I also wonder if the discussions the Cubs have had about trading Garza this offseason can or will factor into an arbitration hearing if it goes that far. It’s plainly clear the Cubs think Matt Garza is an ace and that he’s a rare talent. Theo has said so several times. If this can be used in an arbitration hearing Garza’s representatives could easily talk about ace-caliber starters and their contracts. I don’t know for sure if this can be discussed, but if you think about what these aces are being paid, it’s more than the $15-17 million I’d give Garza for one year if he was a free agent.
Furthermore, the Cubs have asked for way too much in a trade. I can’t help but think this is relevant information to determining how much a player should be paid. It may not be allowed in a hearing, but it should be. This is the best evidence we have of how much the Cubs value Matt Garza. It’s clear the Cubs value Garza highly. It’s even clear they value him more highly than the $2 million raise they offered.
But arbitration is about picking one of two numbers. The reason I started thinking about this again is because the difference between the two figures might lead to an extension. For awhile now I’ve been thinking if the Cubs signed Garza to an extension it would be at least a 4 year deal and perhaps as many as 6 years. Tim Lincecum was signed to a 2-year deal last week buying out his remaining arbitration years. The Cubs could do that with Garza.
I actually think they will. I think the big difference between the figures submitted hints at that. The Cubs can’t take the chance that Garza earns $12.5 million next year. If he had a decent season next year he’d earn close to $16 million in 2013. If the Cubs wanted to trade Garza at that point he’d have very little trade value. It was obvious this offseason that the Cubs aren’t yet interested in signing players to contracts for more than a few years.
If the Cubs were to sign Garza for two years the Cubs could still trade him rather easily. The question is how much is he worth over 2 years? Let’s say he’s a 3.5 WAR pitcher in 2012 and the win value is $5 million. The WAR decreases by .5 the following year and the win value increases by 5%. Over 2 years he’d be expected to provide 7.5 WAR. That’s $38.4 million in value. Factoring in arbitration that would be a 2-year deal for $26.9 million.
That’s not what the Cubs are going to sign him to though. If Garza wins arbitration this year he’d earn $12.5 million and then maybe $16 million next year for a total of $26.5 million. If the Cubs were to win arbitration they’d pay him $7.95 million this year and about $12 million the following year for a total of $20 million. Split the difference and call it a 2-year deal for $23.25 million.
The Cubs would retain about $15.15 million in surplus trade value, which is almost exactly what we estimated it would be based on earning $8.7 million in 2012. Assuming the Cubs and Garza meet somewhere in the middle they’d pay him $10.2 million next year and about $15 million the following year. If that happened the surplus trade value would be about $2 million less.
Signing Garza to a 5-year extension doesn’t make a lot of sense in my opinion even if you think he’s better than the projections. Signing him to a 2-year deal keeps his cost down and the Cubs retain almost all of his previously estimated surplus trade value.
Comments
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MishQuote Reply
I like the Soriano idea. I think Bud should do it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Selig should send Kevin Youkilis to the Cubs while he’s at it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
It’s only fair.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Was Kevin Youkilis the guy that was going to the A’s? I was thinking it was Millar, but I think you’re right.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I think it was Youk too
BerseliusQuote Reply
I added navigation next to reply/quote. Figure it out yourself. It will be most useful on mobile devices.
mb21Quote Reply
We also got rid of that timer and spell check thing.
mb21Quote Reply
I liked the timer. I think it helps us post better when we are under pressure.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Is it about my cube?
Aisle424Quote Reply
I agree that McNutt is the likely compensation. Selig’s got to walk a fine line here. He doesn’t want to set a precedent for teams that want to poach another team’s GM by giving the Red Sox nothing, and he doesn’t want to set a precedent for teams that want to hold their execs hostage when a better job comes up by giving the Red Sox too much.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I wouldn’t mind giving up McNutt. I’d prefer to keep him. Soriano would be ideal. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
You guys are looking at this all wrong. They just re-signed Bobby Scales. It can’t be a coincidence.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
(dying laughing) of course.
No idea why I’m thinking of this now, but is Whiteknack coming back from TJS this year?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I posted this on Unobstructed Views for you guys to leave comments about what you’d like added to the site. We can’t keep up with all of the comments in each thread so here’s a new one just for that: http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/obstructed-view-on-wordpress-wish-list.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
Well, Scales is clearly here to honor the legacy of Jim Hendry by fielding a team composed entirely of shitty MIF in ST.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Dig the new digs.
BrettQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
…and there was much rejoicing!
frysredjacketQuote Reply
Brett, have you heard anything about Whitenack pitching this season?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Obviously you are a devoted listener to WTF because I mentioned that yesterday too. It should be surprising to no one that nobody has written anything about it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I heard that shit on your cast. I think I am your listener.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Actually, I missed WTF as I was having the week from hell. For some reason talking about McNUtt made me think of Whitenack. If he’s healthy, I’ll feel a lot better about losing McNutt. But yeah, no surprise the Cubs beat writers can’t be bothered to do an actual fucking work.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I sent a message to Bruce Miles to see if he knows anything about Whitenack.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Found this nugget on Whitenack:
Aisle424Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Mom?
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
You are a good little WTFer.
MomQuote Reply
I think the only thing working in the red sox favor is the discussions they had with cubs management before the deal. Selig has to be concerned with the precedent for future transactions and the perceived culture of impeding the development of executives (again, theo was promoted). Players are cattle in this league, not execs.
GWQuote Reply
This is before the 2009 Draft (Baseball America):
mb21Quote Reply
@ GW:
That’s a good point about the promotion Theo got. If the Sox wouldn’t give him that promotion, do they deserve any compensation at all?
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Isn’t the issue that Tom convinced Lucky Lucchino to let him talk to Theo based on a promise of “major compensation.”
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
It’s not Tom’s fault Lucchino read “major compensations” as “major player/prospect.” Why are we working under the assumption that the only compensation is a player? Can’t the Cubs just send cash, or cash+player?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fleita said at CubsCon that Whitenack is expected to break camp with a team, probably Daytona. Which is pretty amazing, and almost worryingly fast.
BrettQuote Reply
Brett wrote:
(dying laughing) he’s the guy that doubled over after throwing a pitch and didn’t even get an mri until after he tried pitching again, right? it appears the cubs’ “rub some dirt on it” holistic healing strategy is panning out well
GWQuote Reply
Pitchers return faster than ever from TJS. It always amazes me. About 9 months is the time frame these days. I remember when Wood had TJS the time frame was closer to 15 months. I remember it because Wood was back pitching in about a year. It was about 15 months before he made his MLB debut though.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
This is a fairly recent phenomenon, no? I almost feel like I remember seeing some analysis of this on Fangraphs or HBT a year or so ago.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
i’m surprised that this hasn’t happened, since it seems like the bosox are shockingly low on cash. like say: here’s a million bucks so you can keep scutaro. unless lucchino really is clinging to this player compensation thing as a matter of pride.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Signs point to this being true.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Can the extra wild card team come from the same division as the first wild card?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
I believe they can. And I recall that they said they would allow teams from the same division to meet in the first round as well, but I don’t remember where I saw it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
That’s fine with me, I’m just saying that Lucchino is arguing that they had a handshake deal that he understood to mean a major player/prospect, not that I agree. The conflict is his expectation.
joshQuote Reply
GW wrote:
My impression wasn’t that they couldn’t keep Scutaro because they didn’t have enough money, but that they’re payroll was going to be above the luxury tax level.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Emery——–> new Bears GM.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
Rodrigo Ramirez wrote:
yay?
WaLiQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/30-years-ago-yesterday-the-cubs-acquired-ryne-sandberg.html
mb21Quote Reply