Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

In Game Threads by Obstructed View Staff176 Comments

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Rockies wOBA wRC RS Cubs wOBA wRC RS
Dexter Fowler .347 .58 -.03 Kosuke Fukudome .342 .56 -.06
Jonathan Herrera .298 .38 .02 Darwin Barney .293 .36 .03
Carlos Gonzalez .381 .67 .00 Starlin Castro .332 .50 -.03
Troy Tulowitzki .382 .66 .04 Jeff Baker .312 .41 -.01
Todd Helton .345 .51 -.01 Carlos Pena .378 .62 -.01
Seth Smith .361 .55 .03 Marlon Byrd .338 .48 -.01
Jose Lopez .282 .28 .06 Alfonso Soriano .339 .46 -.10
Chris Iannetta .358 .51 .00 Geovany Soto .362 .52 .00
Esmil Rogers .175 .00 .00 Matt Garza .175 .00 .00
4.1 .1 3.9 -.2

 

Starting Pitcher IP/GS FIP
Esmil Rogers 6.17 4.38
Matt Garza 6.30 4.38
Bullpens xFIP
Rockies 3.21
Cubs 4.19

Score: Rockies 4.9, Cubs 3.8
Win Probability: 42.9%


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Comments

  1. Aisle424

    So the win probability for tonight’s game is 42.9% and this is the best match-up of the series for us?

    I think we can kiss that .500 mark goodbye for awhile.

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  2. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]So the win probability for tonight’s game is 42.9% and this is the best match-up of the series for us?

    I think we can kiss that .500 mark goodbye for awhile.[/quote]Yeah, but ZiPS didn’t think too highly of Garza entering the season. I’ll start using the rest of season projections on May 1st and then update them each month. I still need to finish setting up the Base Runs too, but the truth is it didn’t change much. Instead of 4.15 runs, it might be 4.11 or 4.20. Some lineups might be a bigger difference, but for the Cubs and a couple other lineups I checked, it’s minimal. Base Runs is just better and it’s something I can do. I’m just lazy and haven’t finished it yet.

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  3. AndCounting

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t understand why Baker is batting cleanup either.[/quote]I think Quade is slow to credit Baker’s hot start to just the platoon advantage. Probably because his last big hit came against a righty.

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  4. mb21

    I think it’s somewhat funny that Starlin Castro is batting 3rd. Castro may eventually become a middle of the order hitter, but he isn’t right now.

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  5. Berselius

    [quote name=AndCounting]I think Quade is slow to credit Baker’s hot start to just the platoon advantage. Probably because his last big hit came against a righty.[/quote]
    I think most managers tend to give starts to bench guys if they get a clutch hit or two. Just look how much more Reed Johnson has payed in the past week.

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  6. melissa

    [quote name=Aisle424]Al is a cunt.[/quote]
    Be nice that’s a human being you’re talking about. Wait, no, you’re right. (dying laughing)

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  7. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I think most managers tend to give starts to bench guys if they get a clutch hit or two. Just look how much more Reed Johnson has payed in the past week.[/quote]Yeah, but do they bat them 4th? I don’t really care though. It’s just a lineup. Baker is going to have to play against righties some. I just think it’s funny he’s batting cleanup.

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  8. Aisle424

    [quote name=melissa]Be nice that’s a human being you’re talking about. Wait, no, you’re right. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I just wanted to see the new comment verbage.

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  9. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]Yeah, but do they bat them 4th? I don’t really care though. It’s just a lineup. Baker is going to have to play against righties some. I just think it’s funny he’s batting cleanup.[/quote]
    Finally, a Quade lineup move has gotten to you. You’ve routinely said you don’t care but Baker at cleanup vs. the righty is your tipping point.

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  10. melissa

    [quote name=Aisle424]I just wanted to see the new comment verbage.[/quote]
    Any reason to call Al a cunt is a good reason.

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  11. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]Finally, a Quade lineup move has gotten to you. You’ve routinely said you don’t care but Baker at cleanup vs. the righty is your tipping point.[/quote]I still don’t care to be honest. It just makes me laugh. It reminds me of that game Derrek Lee injured his wrist and was replaced in the lineup by Neifi Perez. The difference between Lee in 2006 and Perez is about the same as the difference between Ramirez in 2011 and Baker. It’s just funny.

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  12. AndCounting

    [quote name=melissa]Finally, a Quade lineup move has gotten to you. You’ve routinely said you don’t care but Baker at cleanup vs. the righty is your tipping point.[/quote]Search your feelings, mb. You know it to be true. Use your anger. Strike the lineup down!

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  13. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I still can’t believe how many batters Garza is striking out.[/quote]
    And how hard he’s been hit despite it

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  14. Aisle424

    I remember years ago the Cubs batted Chico Walker 4th for a game I went to and I couldn’t understand it. He ended up hitting a grand slam or clearing the bases somehow in what I think was a decisive at-bat in the game. My memory is foggy, but Chico Walker definitely batted clean-up and did something good. So I’m going to take a wait and see approach.

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  15. mb21

    You drinkers should have a drinking game where you drink every time Bob says sneaky power this year. You’ll be drunk 24/7.

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  16. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]I’m nominating DB for the new cleanup hitter.[/quote]That might make sense than Baker. (dying laughing)

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  17. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]I’m nominating DB for the new cleanup hitter.[/quote]
    Only when Koyie isn’t starting though.

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  18. mb21

    So weather is why the Cubs aren’t 5 or 6 over .500 according to Quade. That’s probably true. The other day when they were playing the Dodgers, it was under 50 in Chicago and nice and sunny in Los Angeles. Dodgers win. Duh.

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  19. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]So weather is why the Cubs aren’t 5 or 6 over .500 according to Quade. That’s probably true. The other day when they were playing the Dodgers, it was under 50 in Chicago and nice and sunny in Los Angeles. Dodgers win. Duh.[/quote]
    He is going to make every excuse in the book for his players, isn’t he? No wonder they all love him. Lou would have told them they need to play better because most of these teams they’ve been playing kind of suck and they’re only hovering around .500. He clearly was phoning it in.

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  20. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]Starlin —–> no dinner[/quote]
    No breakfast tomorrow morning either.

    / I think he can forget about lunch too. yikes

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  21. Chris Dickerson

    [quote name=mb21]That might make sense than Baker. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    When you look at the Cub lineup tonight, Quade is obviously very happy with Fukudome hitting 1st and Barney hitting 2nd. Until they figure out how to hit Castro more than once in the lineup, it’s going to be 3rd. When you look down the rest of the lineup, Baker’s the hottest hitter of the bunch. I’m not saying a lineup projection system vs righties would have him hitting 4th (or even present), but he’s the ‘hottest’ current option the Cubs have in tonight’s lineup in spots 4-9.

    Over a season, I’d surely rather see Soto or Pena hitting 4th on nights when Aramis sits, but tonight, I don’t think it’s a deadly sin to bat Baker 4th.

    As for the weather, you don’t have to dig very hard to find a Lou Piniella quote defending his players against poor play in cold weather. Every Cub manager until the end of time will make that argument until the team is relocated to Shreveport, LA. Seems like more of a question they get from reporters rather than something they volunteer.

    <a href="http://
    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/18043763“>
    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/18043763

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  22. Aisle424

    My twitter feed hates Castro now and the fucks in the stands gave the sarcastic cheer when he handled a play without making an error. I understand the frustration, but he is the best thing about this team. Fuck this fucking fanbase.

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  23. mb21

    If it weren’t for Castro, there’s be zero reason to watch this team when Zambrano isn’t pitching. Even when Z is pitching it’s not like it once was. An 89 mph fastball isn’t all that exciting.

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  24. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]If it weren’t for Castro, there’s be zero reason to watch this team when Zambrano isn’t pitching. Even when Z is pitching it’s not like it once was. An 89 mph fastball isn’t all that exciting.[/quote]
    Don’t you like anything?

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  25. Xoomwaffle

    [quote name=mb21]If it weren’t for Castro, there’s be zero reason to watch this team when Zambrano isn’t pitching. Even when Z is pitching it’s not like it once was. An 89 mph fastball isn’t all that exciting.[/quote]
    I don’t know, watching Barney play way over his head is pretty fun.

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  26. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    I think it’s pretty damn funny that the Rangers sent Mitch Williams to a hypnotist (dying laughing)

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  27. Chris Dickerson

    [quote name=Aisle424]My twitter feed hates Castro now and the fucks in the stands gave the sarcastic cheer when he handled a play without making an error. I understand the frustration, but he is the best thing about this team. Fuck this fucking fanbase.[/quote]
    Geez louise.

    Bronx cheers are kind of funny, I like to think it shows fans have a sarcastic side instead of purely I AM HAPPY or I AM IRATE sides. He was fielding with a steel shovel that inning.

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  28. mb21

    [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I think it’s pretty damn funny that the Rangers sent Mitch Williams to a hypnotist (dying laughing)[/quote]That’s something I’d have expected the Cubs to do to Zambrano.

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  29. Berselius

    (dying laughing), had to hit the instant replay on that insane Glenallen Hill HR clip. Blows me away every time I see it

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  30. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]He has an injured thumb?

    What did Pena just do? I’m barely watching.[/quote]
    Yes, he injured his thumb catching a throw in one of the early games. He sat out a couple of games and Colvin started for him. If the thumb wasn’t healed and he keeps batting it could be a lingering issue. I’m not trying to make excuses but thumb issues can hamper a hitter.

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  31. mb21

    You have to feel bad for Garza. The best chance this team had of winning a game this series was tonight and it wasn’t even a good chance. Then they get 3 early and have a really good chance of winning. Not anymore.

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  32. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Garza got away with one there.[/quote]
    Agreed. It’s in the 50s in Colorado, so that ball carried further than it would have for a Cub.

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  33. Aisle424

    There is a solitary clapping fan near a microphone and it makes it sound like Bob is still fapping away after Barney’s HR.

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  34. ZappBrannigan

    [quote name=Aisle424]There is a solitary clapping fan near a microphone and it makes it sound like Bob is still fapping away after Barney’s HR.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

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  35. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]The comment should now be changed to “Starlin Castro sucks at sports because he had one bad inning.”[/quote]Done.

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  36. Chris Dickerson

    [quote name=dylanj]Pena is DONE[/quote]
    Pena’s April reminds me of Derrek Lee’s first April.

    Lee was 17-73
    7 2B
    2 HR
    11 BB
    21 K

    Pena is 10-55
    1 2B
    0 HR
    11 BB
    20 K

    I think it’s fair to ask if Pena’s thumb is affecting him. His ISO is .018. Even with a so so year last season he still carried a .211 ISO (.245 for his career). No way does a guy just naturally fall to .018 from .211.

    I hate to try to suggest that it’s hard for a player to adjust to being a Cub (even though I lamely am), but I think it’s easy to suggest his power outage HAS to be due to a physical issue.

    The Cubs should just 15 Day him even if he isn’t hurt and give Colvin all the starts (or a platoon with Baker even though Colvin hits LHP fairly well). It’s not like he’d really do any worse.

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  37. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]The comment should now be changed to “Starlin Castro sucks at sports because he had one bad inning.”[/quote]
    Trade him for Tommy Hanson, then flip him for Nolasco

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  38. Berselius

    [quote name=dylanj]wtf is wrong with the ump[/quote]
    It’s Angel Hernandez, that’s what (dying laughing). I think I heard that Joe West is on this crew too.

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  39. mb21

    [quote name=Chris Dickerson]Pena’s April reminds me of Derrek Lee’s first April.

    Lee was 17-73
    7 2B
    2 HR
    11 BB
    21 K

    Pena is 10-55
    1 2B
    0 HR
    11 BB
    20 K

    I think it’s fair to ask if Pena’s thumb is affecting him. His ISO is .018. Even with a so so year last season he still carried a .211 ISO (.245 for his career). No way does a guy just naturally fall to .018 from .211.

    I hate to try to suggest that it’s hard for a player to adjust to being a Cub (even though I lamely am), but I think it’s easy to suggest his power outage HAS to be due to a physical issue.

    The Cubs should just 15 Day him even if he isn’t hurt and give Colvin all the starts (or a platoon with Baker even though Colvin hits LHP fairly well). It’s not like he’d really do any worse.[/quote]He’s not this bad. There’s no chance he’s this bad, but I am starting to think he’s probably a lot closer to what he was last year than what the projections were expecting out of him this year. It doesn’t really matter to me to be honest. He’s here for one year so whatever.

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  40. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]It’s Angel Hernandez, that’s what (dying laughing). I think I heard that Joe West is on this crew too.[/quote]
    West is at 3rd. They showed his handsome visage earlier.

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  41. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]It’s Angel Hernandez, that’s what (dying laughing). I think I heard that Joe West is on this crew too.[/quote]He’s the crew chief (I think 3rd base tonight).

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  42. ZappBrannigan

    [quote name=Berselius]Great job by Castro. He can have an appetizer now. Or maybe soup.[/quote]
    Just oyster crackers.

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  43. AndCounting

    [quote name=Berselius]Great job by Castro. He can have an appetizer now. Or maybe soup.[/quote]Salad. No dressing. No croutons.

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  44. Xoomwaffle

    [quote name=AndCounting]Salad. No dressing. No croutons.[/quote]
    He can go to Olive Garden, but he can only have one basket of breadsticks.

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  45. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Rockies have 5 runs on 3 hits and I don’t think Garza has walked anybody. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    He has one walk.

    102 pitches. I bet Quade sends him out in the 7th.

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  46. Berselius

    [quote name=Berselius]He has one walk.

    102 pitches. I bet Quade sends him out in the 7th.[/quote]
    Nevermind, he’s due up in the bottom of the inning. Should mean pinch hitter instead

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  47. Berselius

    You’d think it would be easy to do, especially if the batter knows what’s on. He can get in the catcher’s face and deliberately miss the bunt.

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  48. Berselius

    [quote name=Bruce Miles]Fukudome has been on base tonight with 4 hits. His OBP is, like, 1 million[/quote]
    .

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  49. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Why don’t teams double steal more often (or at least steal 3b) when the defense is expecting a bunt?[/quote]It’s an unwritten rule that if the defense is expecting bunt and are going to bring their 3B in that runners on 2nd stay put.

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  50. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I bet Sean Marshall was not a big fan of Forgetting Sarah Marshall[/quote]Is that his wife’s name?

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  51. mb21

    [quote name=Xoomwaffle]He can go to Olive Garden, but he can only have one basket of breadsticks.[/quote]Olive Garden is .5 Wins Above Replacement.

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  52. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Is that his wife’s name?[/quote]
    Yeah. Len and Bob just congratulated him and his wife for producing a human infant, and I laughed when I heard her name.

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  53. mb21

    [quote name=Xoomwaffle]This new different team is looking suspiciously like last years team tonight.[/quote]No way. Al said this team is different and Al is never wrong.

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  54. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Olive Garden is .5 Wins Above Replacement.[/quote]
    You’re forgetting that their insipid TV commercials are worth -3 WAR

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  55. Berselius

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Castro was pretty pissed right now.[/quote]
    Suffice to say, the weather is not agreeing with him. Lousy Smarch weather.

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  56. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]You’re forgetting that their insipid TV commercials are worth -3 WAR[/quote]Compared to Burger King commercials they’re +387 WAR.

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  57. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]Compared to Burger King commercials they’re +387 WAR.[/quote]
    (dying laughing). That king mascot is creepy as fuck.

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  58. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing). That king mascot is creepy as fuck.[/quote]To say the least! A couple of them were just plain wrong.

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  59. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]To say the least! A couple of them were just plain wrong.[/quote]
    The one I remember most was when they were pushing their breakfast menu with “Wake up with the king”, and he’d be standing outside people’s windows with breakfast sandwiches when they woke up.

    The flute solo guy was pretty fucking annoying too.

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  60. mb21

    I’ve never even heard of the so-called Olive Garden Culinary Institute. Maybe I did and I immediately knew it was nonsense. It wouldn’t be much different than Pizza Hut saying they have a culinary school somewhere.

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  61. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I’ve never even heard of the so-called Olive Garden Culinary Institute. Maybe I did and I immediately knew it was nonsense. It wouldn’t be much different than Pizza Hut saying they have a culinary school somewhere.[/quote]
    (dying laughing), or this latest Domino’s bullshit

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  62. mb21

    What’s up with Domino’s? I guess I don’t pay attention to the fast food industry news. Is there and RSS feed I should be following? (dying laughing)

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  63. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]What’s up with Domino’s? I guess I don’t pay attention to the fast food industry news. Is there and RSS feed I should be following? (dying laughing)[/quote]
    They’ve had an ad campaign for the past year that basically said they’re listening to their customers, who said their pizza is absolute shit, and they’re actively working to make things better and prove them wrong. There are numerous shots of official looking chefs working on their new pizza recipe.

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  64. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), or this latest Domino’s bullshit[/quote]
    Are you telling me Domino’s hasn’t conducted extensive research in order to improve their product? You are a fun-sucker.

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  65. Berselius

    It’s a bizarre ad campaign. I bet the other ad companies are laughing their asses off at them. The underlying thesis of it is “Our product sucked, but it doesn’t anymore. We promise!”

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  66. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]They’ve had an ad campaign for the past year that basically said they’re listening to their customers, who said their pizza is absolute shit, and they’re actively working to make things better and prove them wrong. There are numerous shots of official looking chefs working on their new pizza recipe.[/quote]
    I think their improvement was coat everything with garlic butter.

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  67. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]I think their improvement was coat everything with garlic butter.[/quote]
    They learned from Papa John’s (dying laughing)

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  68. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]It’s a bizarre ad campaign. I bet the other ad companies are laughing their asses off at them. The underlying thesis of it is “Our product sucked, but it doesn’t anymore. We promise!”[/quote]
    It’s reminiscent of Year 1.

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  69. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]They’ve had an ad campaign for the past year that basically said they’re listening to their customers, who said their pizza is absolute shit, and they’re actively working to make things better and prove them wrong. There are numerous shots of official looking chefs working on their new pizza recipe.[/quote]that’s more than what I’d do if I owned Domino’s. I’d release a statement that said “Despite the shitty pizza, I have become a very rich man and as long as you’re willing to keep giving me money I do not deserve, i will continue to make shitty pizza.” I’m not joking. That’s what I’d do. If I owned a place that shitty and made money, I’d be proud of it. That’s a fucking scam right there.

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  70. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]The Cubs are the Domino’s of Baseball. They’re tolerable if you’re really drunk.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

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  71. AndCounting

    [quote name=mb21]I’ve never even heard of the so-called Olive Garden Culinary Institute. Maybe I did and I immediately knew it was nonsense. It wouldn’t be much different than Pizza Hut saying they have a culinary school somewhere.[/quote]Where Pizza Hut MILFs learn their trade.

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  72. mb21

    [quote name=AndCounting]Where Pizza Hut MILFs learn their trade.[/quote]They were specially trained at the Pizza Hut Culinary Institute and Brothel

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  73. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]The Cubs need to put Carlos Pena in the leadoff spot. That seems to be where the Cubs get hits this year.[/quote]
    And….it just might work

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  74. WaLi2

    [quote name=Berselius]That was a recent ad campaign I enjoyed[/quote]
    There was even a video game on SNES starring the noid. 7up Spot had a video game too.

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  75. Berselius

    (dying laughing), Len just confirmed that Quade pencils in his lineup days in advance. Kevin Millar approves.

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  76. melissa

    [quote name=fight2win]So Baker playing second tomorrow im thinking with barney at SS[/quote]
    Bench your best player, Let’s See What Happens.

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  77. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]Bench your best player, Let’s See What Happens.[/quote]
    FWIW, he has played every game so far.

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  78. fight2win

    [quote name=melissa]Bench your best player, Let’s See What Happens.[/quote]
    play your best player everyday with no rest, see what happens

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  79. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]FWIW, he has played every game so far.[/quote]
    It’s stupid to bench him for making errors. If it were a scheduled day off that’s one thing but I’m pretty sure that wouldn’t be the case. I’ll also add that I think he’ll be in the lineup tomorrow. I don’t expect Quade to bench him.

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  80. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]It’s stupid to bench him for making errors. If it were a scheduled day off that’s one thing but I’m pretty sure that wouldn’t be the case.[/quote]
    Quade can just tell everyone that he scheduled a day off for Starlin on Feb 17

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  81. mb21

    I don’t have a problem with Castro getting a day off. He’s the only player on the team to play every game and he’s started each of them. He’s cooled off over the last few games so tomorrow would be a good day to give him off anyway.

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  82. melissa

    I disagree with not playing Castro tomorrow because it makes it seem like a punishment for making a couple of errors. I don’t think that’s how you handle a young player. Give him a chance to go out there tomorrow and get back on track. Give him Wednesday off.

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  83. fight2win

    [quote name=Berselius]Juding from the twitters, it looks like we’ve reached the tipping point for Pena with Cubs fans.[/quote]
    The end is nearing closer for Mr. Pena

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  84. melissa

    I know a big deal will be made about his errors by the media but the cold wet conditions were doing him no favors. Garza threw one into the stands too. They are on a homestand and had a day off last Thursday, I don’t think rest is an issue this early in the year for a 21 year old.

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  85. fight2win

    [quote name=melissa]I disagree with not playing Castro tomorrow because it makes it seem like a punishment for making a couple of errors. I don’t think that’s how you handle a young player. Give him a chance to go out there tomorrow and get back on track. Give him Wednesday off.[/quote]
    Tomorrow is a perfect day for him to rest. James Russell is starting so the cubs have zero chance of winning. Let castro eat the dinner he wont be eating tonight.

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  86. GW

    [quote name=Berselius]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704132204576285090526726626.html
    [/quote]

    sounds good to me. I like how he scare quotes “market” when referencing free agency. What would you like to call it, Rog?

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