I combined PECOTA's rest of season projections available here with the current standings (through yesterday's games) and calculated the end of season records.
The Cubs have the 5th or 6th worse projected record moving forward, but thanks to their current record they're projected to have the top pick in the 2013 draft. It looks like any of 6 teams could make a run for the top spot so every loss counts.
The Yankees, Rangers and White Sox are expected to win their respective divisions in the AL. The Angels and Rays look to fight it out in what should really be called game 163 for entrance into the same playoffs we've had since the divisional era.
In the NL, the Nationals, Giants and Reds become the least impressive group of division winners that I can recall as none of them have the type of record you'd expect from a division winner. Maybe in one division, but all 3? The Braves earn the right to play in game 163 while the Cardinals and Dodgers will play rock, paper, scissors to see who gets to play the Braves.
Do the Cubs get awarded an extra loss for yesterday’s debacle? Theo should petition the commissioner’s office. Also, is this adjusted for having Baker and Mather in the lineup everyday? That’s gotta lower the win projection. I just want to make sure we clinch #1 draft pick is all.
Here’s a question that might be an Ask OV…
If you had a choice, would you want the #1 pick knowing that you’d have the biggest bonus pool to spend from, or would you want to go a little lower, wait for the #1 picking team to choose someone under slot (bit of a gamble) and get the best talent at #2 or #3 while negotiating for a lower slot due to the later pick?
I guess it’s a difference between going balls out for the best talent right off the bat or trying to implement the Astros plan.
@ josh:
Cubs currently a half-game up on the Padres for #1 pick, and can be a full game up if Andrew Cashner does well tonight against the Astros. Cubs also hold the tiebreaker based on previous season record. So as long as the Padres don’t suck as much as the Cubs do, I think we’re okay (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
Phew!
But seriously I think you want the #1 draft pick all the way. The Cubs need someone really really good. They need a Bryce Harper or a Stephen Strasburg. I think money be damned at this point.
Watching the Phillies/Pirates on Gameday. 1) Fontenot is on the Phillies?? 2) Fontenot looks stoned in his Phillies picture.
The Pirates radio guys are having a heck of a hand-wringing session over the DH: “We’re done with the Interleague games, now we get back to real baseball. REAL. BASEBALL.” (emphasis his)
@ josh:
I wouldn’t mind the Pirates winning the NLC. The Giants can help them tonight by beating the Reds. Tall order, I know…
The Cardinals are having a strange year. They have far and away the best run differential in the NL but have been struggling to stay above .500
I’d rather root for the Pirates than the Reds or Cards.
Just realized there’s no Cubs game today. Slow.
@ Berselius:
Their bullpen blows, they lost Berkman, and their offense has been very streaky.
Love that the current Euro2012 frontpage image on ESPN is an Italy player elbowing someone in the face
@ josh:
I was hoping tonight’s free game would be Padres @ Astros so I could watch Cashner pitch, but it’s Mets @ Dodgers instead. Boo.
@ Berselius:
Italy are the guy who plays foosball and only plays the keeper
I can’t believe Italy are winning. They are playing route one, negative football and getting lucky bounces. Credit to Balotelli for two class, class finishes, though.
Podolski and Gomez have been dire for Germany. Need to get Müller and Klose on.
josh wrote:
I have to go with the Astros’ plan. Under the new CBA, the top 2 teams and maybe even the 3rd are the only teams able to save enough money in one pick to go over slot by any significant amount multiple times later on in the draft. This let Houston get three 1st round talents signed, Correa, McCullers Jr, and Ruiz as well as being able to go a little above slot on other picks to get them signed. Prospects are no sure thing, too many examples to pick from, so cast a wide net. I think that is best strategy for the #1 pick even if the minor league system was not as barren as it is currently.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Too risky for me. I’d rather lose a shit ton and seal the deal then try to maneuver into penultimate or 3rd to last. I don’t know if the Cubs have the talent to do that anyway. Maybe depends on the draft class, too. There may be a standout, or maybe not. I like getting first pick and let the chips fall where they may.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
But there is no guarantee of that first round in later rounds. Other teams can (and should) easily draft those players you have your sights on and that player should sign with the team drafted by him, regardless of where was drafted. It will be interesting to see what % of players signed and for how much overslot after the cut-off date.
@ josh:
Yes, they should gun for the 1st pick, no question. What to do with that pick is the question.
@ WaLi:
With this CBA, it seems that risky to sign guys are falling. The penalties are too severe for teams to go well over slot on guys, so the players have incentive to not sign and try to improve their position in future drafts. This is why a lot of college seniors went in rounds 5-10, they have no leverage left. Three 1st rounders is unlikely and was the Astros’ GM own assessment of his signings, but what about four or five 2nd round talents?
Crane Kenny sighting outside of Macy’s on State this morning. What did I ask him? “Who owns the Cubs and what exactly do you do here?”
I was thinking it was supposed to have the opposite effect. Wasn’t that why people passed on big talent in the past, because they didn’t want to pay? I thought this stripped the amateurs of leverage, so that they had to take or leave slot (at most) or go sit for another year. I guess that only applies if the guy has no other options, like he’s already in college or whatever. I agree shooting for high schoolers in the first rounds now has little incentive.
Happy to report that Muskat snark is alive and well!
From the mailbag:
Am I the only one concerned that the supposed defensive wonder kid at first base has nine errors at Triple-A?
– Mat B., Chicago
Yes, you are. If you watched Rizzo in his first two games Tuesday and Wednesday at Wrigley Field, he looked very comfortable and handled the position well…
@ josh:
It seemed like the teams went for the top talent in the earlier rounds, waited out the 5th through the 10th rounds (as Bubba said), then started picking the tougher signs after that because there’s no penalty for not signing guys in the 11th and later. You do lose money for not signing a pick in the top 10 rounds though. I tried to look it up but couldn’t figure out if they still had the compensatory pick the following draft for top 10 round non-signers.
@ Rice Cube:
This reminds me of every conversation I ever had with the IRS.
josh wrote:
The thing with that is, in the past, anybody could pick F7 in the 5th round and pay crazy money to sign him. Every team knew it would take crazy money to sign him, so they waited until they felt the risk was worth the shot at trying to sign him. Now, a guy with a scholarship thinks he can one day become a 1st round pick, the only normal way to get 1st round money now is to get picked in the 1st round, outside of the top 2 teams being able to save enough on their 1st picks to throw 1st round money at someone later in the draft.
Of course (leaving the fantasy world of projections and entering the real world), more than likely at least one team lucks into a 90-plus win campaign, and possibly one per division.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
I see your point.
Italy are going to get fucking ruined by Spain.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I was talking about projections of course. Leaving that fantasy world you still have a group of unimpressive teams contending at this point.
I really liked the Astros strategy in the draft, but I’m worried it might be a little risky. If it goes as this draft did then I think it’s worth the risk, but I’m not sure one draft is enough to know whether or not there will be top tiered talent remaining later in the draft. The Cubs probably only have 1 pick in the 1st round next year unless they hold onto Dempster, which is what I’d do anyway. Then I’d offer him arbitration.
@ mb21:
From what little I’ve read, it sounds like next year’s draft should be similar to this one as far as top talent goes, so having the first overall pick isn’t that big of a deal.
@ Berselius:
It’s too early to know. The top 100 is going to change so much between now and then that it’s next to pointless to make assertions about the first round next year. Anytime there isn’t a Strasburg or Harper the draft is considered weak or it has depth. Add Strasburg to this past draft and they’d call it one of the most talented drafts ever.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/cubs-willing-to-pay-part-of-dempsters-contract-in-right-deal.html