The Cubs are coming off a 4-3 road trip and I thought I’d update the WWSN tables. The Cubs lost a game to the Cardinals since the break, but they don’t have much chance of catching them anyway. They did pick up some ground on the Pirates and it would be nice to finish in 2nd rather than 3rd. If the season ended today the two teams would play a one game playoff so the order of the teams only matters in who would host the game. That could be pretty big.
| Team | W | L | PCT | RS | RA | GB |
| Cardinals | 60 | 34 | .638 | 382 | 278 | – |
| Pirates | 54 | 40 | .574 | 375 | 325 | 6 |
| Cubs | 51 | 43 | .543 | 361 | 347 | 9 |
| Reds | 42 | 51 | .452 | 367 | 410 | 17.5 |
| Brewers | 42 | 53 | .442 | 391 | 424 | 18.5 |
Below are the adjusted standings from Baseball Prospectus.
| Team | W1 | L1 | PCT1 | RS | RA | Diff1 |
| Cardinals | 59.7 | 34.3 | .636 | 382 | 278 | 0.3 |
| Pirates | 53 | 41 | .563 | 375 | 325 | 1 |
| Cubs | 48.7 | 45.3 | .518 | 361 | 347 | 2.3 |
| Brewers | 43.9 | 51.1 | .463 | 391 | 424 | -1.9 |
| Reds | 41.8 | 51.2 | .449 | 367 | 410 | 0.2 |
| Team | W2 | L2 | PCT2 | RS2 | RA2 | Diff2 |
| Cardinals | 54.2 | 39.8 | .576 | 395 | 333 | 5.8 |
| Pirates | 52.3 | 41.7 | .557 | 378 | 333 | 1.7 |
| Cubs | 52 | 42 | .553 | 373 | 331 | -1 |
| Reds | 45.4 | 47.6 | .488 | 394 | 405 | -3.4 |
| Brewers | 41.7 | 53.3 | .439 | 373 | 425 | 0.3 |
| Team | W3 | L3 | PCT3 | RS3 | RA3 | Diff3 |
| Cardinals | 54.2 | 39.8 | .577 | 405 | 342 | 5.8 |
| Cubs | 52.7 | 41.3 | .560 | 394 | 345 | -1.7 |
| Pirates | 50.7 | 43.3 | .540 | 385 | 352 | 3.3 |
| Reds | 44.6 | 48.4 | .480 | 406 | 424 | -2.6 |
| Brewers | 42.1 | 52.9 | .443 | 366 | 415 | -0.1 |
The Cubs still look better than the Pirates when looking at 3rd order win percentage so there’s that. The rest of season PECOTA projections have the two teams in a tie. Both teams win the wild card.
| 2015 Season To Date (through 7-22) | PECOTA | Total | ||||||
| Team | W | L | PCT | W | L | W | L | PCT |
| Cardinals | 60 | 34 | .638 | 37 | 31 | 97.3 | 64.7 | .601 |
| Dodgers | 54 | 42 | .563 | 37 | 29 | 91.4 | 70.6 | .564 |
| Nationals | 51 | 42 | .548 | 37 | 32 | 88.3 | 73.7 | .545 |
| Pirates * | 54 | 40 | .574 | 34 | 34 | 88.2 | 73.8 | .544 |
| Cubs ** | 51 | 43 | .543 | 37 | 31 | 87.9 | 74.1 | .543 |
| Giants | 51 | 44 | .537 | 34 | 33 | 85.4 | 76.6 | .527 |
| Mets | 49 | 46 | .516 | 35 | 32 | 83.6 | 78.4 | .516 |
| Diamondbacks | 43 | 50 | .462 | 33 | 36 | 76.3 | 85.7 | .471 |
| Padres | 44 | 51 | .463 | 32 | 35 | 76.0 | 86.0 | .469 |
| Braves | 45 | 50 | .474 | 30 | 37 | 75.1 | 86.9 | .464 |
| Marlins | 40 | 55 | .421 | 34 | 33 | 74.1 | 87.9 | .457 |
| Reds | 42 | 51 | .452 | 32 | 37 | 73.8 | 88.2 | .456 |
| Brewers | 42 | 53 | .442 | 32 | 35 | 73.8 | 88.2 | .456 |
| Rockies | 40 | 53 | .430 | 33 | 36 | 73.1 | 88.9 | .451 |
| Phillies | 34 | 63 | .351 | 27 | 38 | 61.2 | 100.8 | .378 |
The Cubs playoff odds are pretty high at the moment, but the Giants are only a half game behind them. Making the playoffs isn’t a huge deal this season, but if you’re in it in the end of July, you’d like to see the team finish strong and reach the postseason.
| Team | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
| Cardinals | 89.3% | 10.1% | 99.4% |
| Dodgers | 83.8% | 8.8% | 92.6% |
| Nationals | 76.0% | 5.7% | 81.7% |
| Pirates * | 5.9% | 66.8% | 72.8% |
| Cubs ** | 4.7% | 65.3% | 70.1% |
| Giants | 15.7% | 29.0% | 44.7% |
| Mets | 23.0% | 11.1% | 34.1% |
| Diamondbacks | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| Padres | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Braves | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Marlins | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Reds | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Brewers | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Rockies | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
It doesn’t feel like everything has clicked for this team yet. Jon Lester hasn’t quite pitched to his abilities yet. Starlin Castro is due for some improvement and sooner or later the big bats in the Cubs lineup are going to be hitting the ball at the same time. Kyle Schwarber, in very limited action so far, has shown he’s not overwhelmed at this level. It’s an exciting time to be a Cubs fan.