Using Baseball Prospectus rest of season PECOTA projections I figured it might be fun to see just how many games the Cubs are expected to lose at this point. Since this is OV and we're Cubs fans we do things in reverse order. We're more focused on the 2013 draft order and which slot the Cubs may be picking from. As such, the end of season standings are in reverse order.
All I've done is take a team's current record (through games on Saturday) and added PECOTA's rest of season wins to each team. Enjoy.
|Current Record||End of Season (Current + PECOTA)|
There you go. The projected reverse standings after 162 games. The Cubs earn the top pick in next year's draft with their stellar effort in 2012.
By the way, this is the better way to estimate what a team is on pace for. The Cubs are on pace for 98 losses and not 110 as Paul Sullivan would like you to believe. Saying they're on pace to lose 110 is like saying a guy who hits 2 home runs on opening day is on pace for 324 home runs.
If they do lose 98, that would be the most losses since I became a fan of this team. 98 losses would tie them for the 3rd most in franchise history behind the 1962 and 1966 Cubs team who each lose 103. They'd be tied with the 1980 team and one more loss than the 2000 team. For some stupid I reason I became a fan of this team the season after they lost 98 games in 1980.
I knew this team would be bad, but this is really bad. We're getting to what Aisle 424 predicted and I thought he was a bit nuts. Not to mention, if you factor in potential trades the Cubs may be lucky to lose fewer than 100.
The Cubs are expected to be about baseball's biggest sellers at the trade deadline, and some rival GMs anticipate that they may be willing to consider deals for almost anyone but their talented young shortstop Starlin Castro.
Cubs people suggest that may be overstating their coming sale a bit but do acknoweldge they expect to be in the middle of a lot of the talk.
The article mentiones the obvious candidates: Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol, Alfonso Soriano, Paul Maholm and they add in Reed Johnson. Soriano and Dempster have already apparently said they'd accept a trade and I'm sure Garza would love to get out of town. Trade Dempster at the break and you lose win. Trade Garza and you lose another and you're right at 100 losses. Damn.